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Vicious Ellipse
Posted - 2008.12.16 02:51:00 - [1]
 

15 Mag Stab I copies (300 runs ea)
no decryptor, no Tech I module
Yields 1 success, 7%

Before QR,

7 Mag Stab I copies (300 runs ea)
no decryptor, no Tech I module
yields 4 Successes, 57%

Calcul0n
Posted - 2008.12.16 03:28:00 - [2]
 


Lumpy McUglyface
Brutor Tribe
Posted - 2008.12.16 03:32:00 - [3]
 

Edited by: Lumpy McUglyface on 16/12/2008 03:32:43
Thank you for the exhaustive study. It is obvious that there is only one conclusion that can be derived from your extensive data set.

Mik Nostrebor
Minmatar
Ex Coelis
Posted - 2008.12.16 04:05:00 - [4]
 

To add more figures

I too have seen a change in the results. I have invented 20 minmatar frigates and received only 2 successes. This is certainly a lot less than the Eve-MEEP program predicts. The percentage success should be about 32% for me and with QR it falls far short.

Are others seeing a similar pattern?

FunzzeR
Legion of the Scottish Fold
Posted - 2008.12.16 04:13:00 - [5]
 

Originally by: Vicious Ellipse
15 Mag Stab I copies (300 runs ea)
no decryptor, no Tech I module
Yields 1 success, 7%

Before QR,

7 Mag Stab I copies (300 runs ea)
no decryptor, no Tech I module
yields 4 Successes, 57%


Not statistically significant, please come back when you have run at least 200-300 jobs


Barbara Nichole
Cryogenic Consultancy
Black Sun Alliance
Posted - 2008.12.16 06:39:00 - [6]
 

Quote:
Obvious troll is obvious


I thought a troll was someone who was just trying to make someone mad and start arguements... Isn't possible this op was sincere even if as little misguided?

Rashmika Clavain
Gallente
Posted - 2008.12.16 09:15:00 - [7]
 

Edited by: Rashmika Clavain on 16/12/2008 09:15:57
Originally by: Barbara Nichole
Quote:
Obvious troll is obvious


I thought a troll was someone who was just trying to make someone mad and start arguements... Isn't possible this op was sincere even if as little misguided?


Considering that after every patch there are cries of "invention is nerfed as I only got 1 success from 6 attempts" and that there is a (admittedly poor) forum search option, yes, obvious troll is obvious.

In order to balance things, I've had an 8/10 success streak on HAC's whihc is statisically less likely than you getting 1/6 successes Rolling Eyes

Venkul Mul
Gallente
Posted - 2008.12.16 09:37:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: Mik Nostrebor
To add more figures

I too have seen a change in the results. I have invented 20 minmatar frigates and received only 2 successes. This is certainly a lot less than the Eve-MEEP program predicts. The percentage success should be about 32% for me and with QR it falls far short.

Are others seeing a similar pattern?



My last 4 attempts of 4 inventions each had a success rate of 75%.

And my 1 onyx attempt was successful. 100% success!!!

You were nerfed, I was boosted. Yay for me. Cool


It is all in the realm normal of statistical distribution of random chance.



Irongut
Sex Money Guns
Posted - 2008.12.16 16:34:00 - [9]
 

Random chance is random.

Pwett
QUANT Corp.
QUANT Hegemony
Posted - 2008.12.16 17:26:00 - [10]
 

Yes, Invention is broken. I recommend quitting until the next major patch. I've already sold all my invention gear since I figure it will only decline in price.

Likuno
Hard Gay Ramen
Posted - 2008.12.16 19:36:00 - [11]
 

I run around 500 invention jobs per month and have been doing so for around six months. This month success has fallen from around 48% to 15% and is consistently low over all invention job types and those including decryptors.

I would assume this has to do with a global increase in invention jobs run over the festive period and some ****ty chance based modifier gimps the success result to compensate.

Due to the products I supply I am still making good profits so not quitting yet, but needless to say dissapointed.

Dr Jamala
Posted - 2008.12.16 20:44:00 - [12]
 

Edited by: Dr Jamala on 16/12/2008 20:45:21
Originally by: Calcul0n
Obvious troll is obvious


Repeating stupid sayings is stupid, and nerdy.

Example:

"fail is fail"
"obvious is obvious"

Learn to speak English

ScottyDosn'tKnow
Divine Power.
Wildly Inappropriate.
Posted - 2008.12.16 20:50:00 - [13]
 

I just did 10 runs of 425 mm rails with the same info you listed and got 8/10 = 80%

Guess it's all chance based...

Abrazzar
Posted - 2008.12.16 20:53:00 - [14]
 

Originally by: ScottyDosn'tKnow
Guess it's all chance based...

You don't say so!

Chomp Rock
Caldari
Posted - 2008.12.16 21:11:00 - [15]
 

why is it that every time CCP patches, some renegade piece of code falls off, rolls down the database, and runs over the invention formula's random number generator?

or maybe it's the one thing they ninja-adjust every single time they patch. for how many times it's been "nerfed", you'd think there would be fewer t2 items invented than made by bpo

Tunak
Posted - 2008.12.16 21:27:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: Chomp Rock
why is it that every time CCP patches, some renegade piece of code falls off, rolls down the database, and runs over the invention formula's random number generator?

or maybe it's the one thing they ninja-adjust every single time they patch. for how many times it's been "nerfed", you'd think there would be fewer t2 items invented than made by bpo

Or maybe nothing is wrong and people don't udnerstand random chance.

Chomp Rock
Caldari
Posted - 2008.12.17 03:19:00 - [17]
 

Originally by: Tunak
Originally by: Chomp Rock
why is it that every time CCP patches, some renegade piece of code falls off, rolls down the database, and runs over the invention formula's random number generator?

or maybe it's the one thing they ninja-adjust every single time they patch. for how many times it's been "nerfed", you'd think there would be fewer t2 items invented than made by bpo

Or maybe nothing is wrong and people don't udnerstand random chance.


/sarcasm off

i think we have a winner, ladies and gents. the flare-up of these threads every patch is the result of "patternicity", or the perception of a pattern in meaningless noise

it's an excellent example of how superstition arises. when people don't fully understand how they're getting the results of a chance-based phenomena, they attribute their results to some kind of deliberate intervention.

Hopey
Gallente
PLG Enterprises
Posted - 2008.12.17 04:44:00 - [18]
 

i have done 3 batches of invention in the last few days with the following results -

23 experiments: 35%
7 experiements: 71%
39 experiments: 59%

total experiments: 69
52% success rate.

i realise that this is a ridiculously small data-set to pull any relevent results from, but i honestly feel it's random. on my first batch, i got 5 consecutive successes (from 23 experiments) and then failed 12 in a row - i honestly don't believe there's any algorithm that figures out how many you're running and gyps you, nor do i believe that the overall chance of success has been lowered.

Johnathon Desoto
Pax Britannia
Rally Against Evil
Posted - 2008.12.19 09:43:00 - [19]
 

At the risk of sounding like a smug smegger:

10 Invention runs on Ice Harvester BPC, Max Run, No decryptors but included a base item...

100% Success Rate


Admittedly, no successes since then, and i've done 24 jobs since... well i be boned

Wy LinChow
Posted - 2008.12.19 13:27:00 - [20]
 

Like all things in this game... CCP are running quotas on each invention type... As more people become better skilled in the trade their success at it would increase to a point where markets would be flooded and devalue the stuff people are making.
This is all supply economics, but with a control you won't normally see in the real world. But then again there are always bugs/loopholes that humans will find to exploit in any reality. We can just hope CCP are not too bloody minded as poeple will start to wonder why they are bothering.

Lexander Morinex
Caldari
LDD Investments
Posted - 2008.12.19 20:12:00 - [21]
 

Originally by: FunzzeR
Originally by: Vicious Ellipse
15 Mag Stab I copies (300 runs ea)
no decryptor, no Tech I module
Yields 1 success, 7%

Before QR,

7 Mag Stab I copies (300 runs ea)
no decryptor, no Tech I module
yields 4 Successes, 57%


Not statistically significant, please come back when you have run at least 200-300 jobs




Has anybody posted the calculations for showing statistical significance? If so, I won't bother, but if nobody has I have them if they are needed.

- Lexander Morinex

Bartom Dekkar
Nebula Rasa Holdings
Nebula Rasa
Posted - 2008.12.19 23:19:00 - [22]
 

Originally by: Wy LinChow
Like all things in this game... CCP are running quotas on each invention type...


I really doubt this is true. CCP tend to let the market sort things out. If there are too many folks inventing, profit goes down, people stop. The market is self limiting. In fact, the removal of shuttle sales by NPC corps was to remove an artificial price cap on Tritanium, which also points towards letting the market decide.

FunzzeR
Legion of the Scottish Fold
Posted - 2008.12.20 05:30:00 - [23]
 

Originally by: Lexander Morinex


Has anybody posted the calculations for showing statistical significance? If so, I won't bother, but if nobody has I have them if they are needed.

- Lexander Morinex


If you are refering to using hypothesis tests with a z or t distribution, probably not. Its probably worth posting the calculations if it reduces the number of threads about how invention has been nerfed after every patch. ugh

Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
Posted - 2008.12.20 11:21:00 - [24]
 

Originally by: Wy LinChow
Like all things in this game... CCP are running quotas on each invention type... As more people become better skilled in the trade their success at it would increase to a point where markets would be flooded and devalue the stuff people are making.
This is all supply economics, but with a control you won't normally see in the real world. But then again there are always bugs/loopholes that humans will find to exploit in any reality. We can just hope CCP are not too bloody minded as poeple will start to wonder why they are bothering.


This is quite simply not true. The chance to invent is the same today as it was when it was introduced. (aside from the ship class balance they did a year ago + decryptor stats changes).

There is no quotas. If you invent 10 expanded cargohold II's or 500 billion, the chance is always going to be the same, regardless of how flooded the market becomes. But you see PEOPLE will stop inventing before then, because they will be unsaleable due to the lack of demand for that many. CCP don't need to and do not control the supply side at ALL. Players control both the demand and supply side. CCP only set the base chance, once. Everything else is player driven, totally.

SPQRMocton
Minmatar
Vertigo Heavy Industries
Vertigo Coalition
Posted - 2008.12.23 12:24:00 - [25]
 

Odd that your invention is borked, the last 160 tries on frigs has yielded 72 successes for a 47.5 percent success rate and on over 2000 tries I am at 39% , but that's on many different types of invention, and to be honest w you using any kind of decrypters is a sure way to kill your profit in my opinion , if your doing 10 tries a day that adds 100 mil to your inv cost daily , so I gave up on them when they went up in price , best to keep track of all your tries in some way , and only after you have run a minimum of 300 will the avg start to be seen

Arnold Kruger
Superior Systems
Posted - 2008.12.23 13:23:00 - [26]
 

Edited by: Arnold Kruger on 23/12/2008 13:45:56
Edit: misread, thought she did 300 attempts.

Yeah, 7 and 15 isn't really a good sample.

I am, however, not going to dismiss your frustration as trivial. ugh


 

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