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Tiirae
The 5th Freedom
Wildly Inappropriate.
Posted - 2008.12.17 01:56:00 - [31]
 

Originally by: Lieutenant Obvious
I either read incorrectly, or the minutes (CCP) actually stated that 35% of the Ferrogel traded recently was spawned.

That's significant.


yeah it seems they info relayed through kwint was a bit confused.

What they actually said was that 'at it's peak' it was responsible for 30% of the ferrogel on the market.

Which means it was producing 50% as much as all the moons in eve put together. Hell yeah that's significant.

However, they go on to say this was for a short time, and the total amount of fake ferrogel introduced was 3 trillion isk worth. Hmm. That doesn't sound so significant any more.

The whole things just been whitewashed and swept under the carpet. About as transparent as a brick wall.

Tiirae
The 5th Freedom
Wildly Inappropriate.
Posted - 2008.12.17 02:06:00 - [32]
 

Edited by: Tiirae on 17/12/2008 02:09:45
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
I would say we can easily expect that the current dyspro/prom supply will drop anywhere from 30-50%.



Just finished reading the CSM minutes.

... I feel vindicated Laughing


well.. you would... but the reality is that it was only at that level for the last 90 days. Your whole post was predicated on that level of fake production for the last couple of years.

Very different.

According to CCP the amount of fake ferrogel wasn't at all significant until march 2008, and only hit it's peak in the last 90 days.

If you go back and look at what t2 ships cost in march, and then look again 90 days ago, and then look again on the day before this story broke, there really isn't much change at all. Most ships have their spikes and troughs, but these can be tracked directly to specific nerfs and buffs being implemented.

There is NO consistent, across-the-board drop in prices of T2 ships that would match the information given to us by CCP.

Personally I think they are feeding us a load of crap.

But if their numbers are correct then the price of T2 ships should return to march 08 levels in the next few weeks. Which is basically the same as a week ago.

That is somewhat different to your conclusion that we were in for a 20% jump in prices.

If CCP's numbers are right then your feelings of vindication are misplaced :P

I think it will be difficult to tell because as another poster early pointed out, they can inject as much product into the market as they like to make their numbers seem correct.

I'm feeling pretty unsatisified with all of this.



Kazzac Elentria
Posted - 2008.12.17 02:34:00 - [33]
 

Originally by: Tiirae


well.. you would... but the reality is that it was only at that level for the last 90 days. Your whole post was predicated on that level of fake production for the last couple of years.

Very different.

According to CCP the amount of fake ferrogel wasn't at all significant until march 2008, and only hit it's peak in the last 90 days.

If you go back and look at what t2 ships cost in march, and then look again 90 days ago, and then look again on the day before this story broke, there really isn't much change at all. Most ships have their spikes and troughs, but these can be tracked directly to specific nerfs and buffs being implemented.

There is NO consistent, across-the-board drop in prices of T2 ships that would match the information given to us by CCP.

Personally I think they are feeding us a load of crap.

But if their numbers are correct then the price of T2 ships should return to march 08 levels in the next few weeks. Which is basically the same as a week ago.

That is somewhat different to your conclusion that we were in for a 20% jump in prices.

If CCP's numbers are right then your feelings of vindication are misplaced :P

I think it will be difficult to tell because as another poster early pointed out, they can inject as much product into the market as they like to make their numbers seem correct.

I'm feeling pretty unsatisfied with all of this.




At least I admit to being arrogant, admitting you have a problem is the first step right Laughing

Anyway, I underlined the point of your comment that I'd like to point out. CCP has stated that this information given to us is only prelim, very rough estimates and that they cannot even begin to grasp the depth of scope that this bug was being used.

I read into the comments that to their knowledge it was possible at least as of Feb 07, which to me means that it was possible earlier than that.

If it was supplying at least 30% of the market in that time frame, who freaking knows how much its spawned over the life of the exploit though.

I for one, agree... I feel unsatisfied with the answer but am more than willing to let the market play out, give them the time they need to datamine their logs and see what comes of this.

Who knows, maybe this will be the straw that broke the camels back and for once they might actually listen to those of us down here (well up here now) in the MD forum in so far that dyspro and to a lesser degree promethium need to be reduced in their usage to the entire T2 chain.

Lieutenant Obvious
Lobster Sticks To Magnet
Posted - 2008.12.17 03:28:00 - [34]
 

Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Originally by: Tiirae

Who knows, maybe this will be the straw that broke the camels back and for once they might actually listen to those of us down here (well up here now) in the MD forum in so far that dyspro and to a lesser degree promethium need to be reduced in their usage to the entire T2 chain.


It will never happen Kazzac. :(

They'll just introduce T3 AND new materials required to build them in order to lower the demand for T2. They'll screw it up and T3 won't be worth building en masse and everything will remain the same.

Just redistribute the damn requirements in a few select BPOs ffs. Grr!

Kazzac Elentria
Posted - 2008.12.17 04:02:00 - [35]
 

Originally by: Lieutenant Obvious

Just redistribute the damn requirements in a few select BPOs ffs. Grr!


The horrible part about it. It wouldn't even require that much of a change. Literally we'd be talking about switching a few reactions to using an alternate R64 and R32.

Either that or move vandium half into the production of ferrogel and ferrofluid into the production of phel composits. That would ease some of the pressure off dyspro immensely.

In addition some changes to some T2 mat blueprints would be required, so that less R64 material is required. Oscillator components come to mind, I think they comprise what... 60% dyspro at this point? Thats a little insane really.

Also we could change Alchemy so that a majority of R32's can be made with enough R16's and enough R16's can be made with R8's.

Make it a tiered system whereby each mat can be be reprocessed down to its core. For instance, you can take raw dyspro, reprocess it down to 2 parts Caesium and 1 part Merc. Take that Caes and reprocess it down to 1 part Vand and 2 parts Plat, etc.. so on and so forth.

...but this is just the drunken rambling of a trader so take everything for a grain of salt.

Tasko Pal
Aliastra
Posted - 2008.12.17 05:38:00 - [36]
 

Ok, I'm looking at the Jita market and I see two things. First, I see a decline in dyspro, prom, ferrogel, fermionic fluids, etc starting around April till the exploit was revealed. Volume slowly increased over that time period. Second, prices are up to where they were back during the Summer. My take is that things weren't as bad as feared, perhaps not even as bad as implied by CCP (eg, the 35% figure may have been for certain periods last month). My take is that if there really was a massive supply drop in the markets, we would have seen it by now. The historical market prices are simply inconsistent with a massive years long exploit and current prices aren't consistent with a massive drying up of ferrogel production.

Having said that, I don't see any reason that prices will fall much. Between current prices and the April prices (the "summer spike") seem about right given the circumstances. Kazzac and Akita's predictions are on the high end, but not unreasonable.

Finally, there has been some serious disinformation out there (I don't know of any in this thread, but that doesn't mean much). Didn't see the original myself, but apparently the image on SHC that supposedly showed the cheating was a bad photoshop (it originally showed some silos as being both online and offline and used the wrong tower type) and later corrected. In hindsight, I am glad I didn't speculate in this market. I'm sure some people made out like kings, but I wouldn't have been one of them.

SPQRMocton
Minmatar
Vertigo Heavy Industries
Vertigo Coalition
Posted - 2008.12.21 11:19:00 - [37]
 

Well , watch ferrogel start to plummet this week and drop below 20 k soon then buy it up as I believe it will stabilize around 20 k , you may wonder what i base this on, well thats for me to know and for you to never have revealed to you.


Estel Arador
Posted - 2008.12.21 12:17:00 - [38]
 

Originally by: SPQRMocton
Well , watch ferrogel start to plummet this week and drop below 20 k soon then buy it up as I believe it will stabilize around 20 k , you may wonder what i base this on, well thats for me to know and for you to never have revealed to you.


OMG I'm gonna sell all my ferrogel right now!

Cyan Blackadder
CBI
Posted - 2008.12.22 22:28:00 - [39]
 

I still wonder what if a portion of the fake ferrogel was simply traded for other stuff. That does not show up anywhere.

Danari
Invictus Australis
Northern Coalition.
Posted - 2008.12.22 23:07:00 - [40]
 

It's tacks. Brass tacks.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2008.12.23 00:47:00 - [41]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 23/12/2008 00:50:05
Originally by: Tiirae
However, they go on to say this was for a short time, and the total amount of fake ferrogel introduced was 3 trillion isk worth. Hmm. That doesn't sound so significant any more.

They actually said
Quote:
The impact on the economy is significant; overall they are expecting this generated a few trillion isk.
As a comparison, the daily trade on average in EVE through the market for all items is 3 trillion isk.

In this context, "a few trillion" could just as well be 8 trillion or even 45 trillion ISK.
Originally by: Tiirae
Your whole post was predicated on that level of fake production for the last couple of years.

I don't recall exactly what Kazzac Elentria said about when the "fake" production would have been noticeable, but I for one named half a year ago as a definite point (based on dysprosium prices) BEFORE the quantity details of the exploit went public...

Kazzac Elentria
Posted - 2008.12.23 01:36:00 - [42]
 

Originally by: Akita T

I don't recall exactly what Kazzac Elentria said about when the "fake" production would have been noticeable, but I for one named half a year ago as a definite point (based on dysprosium prices) BEFORE the quantity details of the exploit went public...



I pretty much agreed with you, and noted that there have been previous entries similar to the summer spike in past years which we here had just attributed to external factors like invention, faction warfare, alliance blurps.

Which is partly confirmed by the update where it was stated that working on the assumption it was at least exploitable since POS sov has gone into game as they have no immediate way of knowing chains that have come and gone until further database restores and mining have been done.

..and I know its tacks alright.. I was under duress of rum, gimme a break


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