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blankseplocked Has something happened to Invention?
 
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Gun Kata
R.E.D Enterprises
Posted - 2007.09.25 16:32:00 - [1]
 

After about 20 attempts at Invention I had 2 successes in modules.

Yesterday I loaded up 5 jobs and delivered them today - all failures.

Has the failure rate been tweaked? Before I was getting around 50% success but recently I have been getting absolute rubbish.

If this goes on I will have to drop invention as the datacore costs are outstripping what I make on the modules.

William Alex
Viscosity
Ocularis Inferno
Posted - 2007.09.25 16:48:00 - [2]
 

5 failures is not what we'd call 'statistically significant'

It doesn't really mean anything unless your sample size is large.

Tunak
Posted - 2007.09.25 16:49:00 - [3]
 

Please see the thread on this topic after the last patch.

Then please see the thread on this topic after the patch before that.

Then please see the thread on this topic after the patch before that.

Then please see the thread on this topic after the patch before that.

Gun Kata
R.E.D Enterprises
Posted - 2007.09.25 16:50:00 - [4]
 

Thats fair enough but my usual results have gone negative really fast.

Like I said i was averaging 50% success rates.

Gun Kata
R.E.D Enterprises
Posted - 2007.09.25 16:50:00 - [5]
 

Originally by: Tunak
Please see the thread on this topic after the last patch.

Then please see the thread on this topic after the patch before that.

Then please see the thread on this topic after the patch before that.

Then please see the thread on this topic after the patch before that.


I'm tired Crying or Very sad Do you have a link please?

Ki Tarra
Ki Tech Industries
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:01:00 - [6]
 

Originally by: Gun Kata
Thats fair enough but my usual results have gone negative really fast.

Like I said i was averaging 50% success rates.
What part of not statistically significant do you not understand.

Your complaint is comparable to saying: Last week I rolled a dice 20 times and got 5 six's, this week I tried it and only got 2 six's, what happened to the dice?

The answer is nothing happened to the dice, you just aren't rolling it enough times to get a consistant number of six's.

Gun Kata
R.E.D Enterprises
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:16:00 - [7]
 

Edited by: Gun Kata on 25/09/2007 17:17:51
Originally by: Ki Tarra
Originally by: Gun Kata
Thats fair enough but my usual results have gone negative really fast.

Like I said i was averaging 50% success rates.
What part of not statistically significant do you not understand.

Your complaint is comparable to saying: Last week I rolled a dice 20 times and got 5 six's, this week I tried it and only got 2 six's, what happened to the dice?

The answer is nothing happened to the dice, you just aren't rolling it enough times to get a consistant number of six's.


In total I have done 100's of runs. The claim above happened recently. After getting a consistant average for a while and for it to drop suddenly I think I have the right to ask the question whether there is a problem or not.

If this is down to the 'roll of the dice' and bad luck then surely 'statistically' I would have had this bad luck a few times before?


Tunak
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:19:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: Gun Kata



I'm tired Crying or Very sad Do you have a link please?


If you find typing into a search box too hard I'm the last person you should be asking for help.

What CCP has said on the subject is:

Invention has not changed. If we change anything we will tell you.


Gun Kata
R.E.D Enterprises
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:20:00 - [9]
 

Originally by: Tunak
Originally by: Gun Kata



I'm tired Crying or Very sad Do you have a link please?


If you find typing into a search box too hard I'm the last person you should be asking for help.

What CCP has said on the subject is:

Invention has not changed. If we change anything we will tell you.




I thought you were referring to a specific link. Thanks anyway and thanks for the update.


Tunak
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:31:00 - [10]
 

Originally by: Gun Kata


I thought you were referring to a specific link. Thanks anyway and thanks for the update.




I was referring to the fact that after every bloody patch some one with even less probability knowledge than me posts about invention being nerfed because they had a run of bad luck. I see no reason to find them for you simply because you are too lazy to find them.


Brutor Shaun
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:42:00 - [11]
 

Lets face facts.

Invention was created to try and bring a balance to the T2 market. On most fronts it's succeeded.

It wasn't introduced to be an isk printing press like T2 BPOs are/were.

Unless you're willing to put in stacks of time/effort/isk/skills you will never become rich by inventing. In fact from my POV the only way I've found of making isk from invention is by selling datacores.

I gave up inventing month ago!


Gun Kata
R.E.D Enterprises
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:45:00 - [12]
 

Originally by: Tunak
Originally by: Gun Kata


I thought you were referring to a specific link. Thanks anyway and thanks for the update.




I was referring to the fact that after every bloody patch some one with even less probability knowledge than me posts about invention being nerfed because they had a run of bad luck. I see no reason to find them for you simply because you are too lazy to find them.




I am not too lazy to do anything. I did look and read what you were referring to scattered around the forum.

And read my post - at no point in this thread did I say there was a nerf. I asked a simple question because to me it did not look normal at the time. Is that so bad?

If the bad results are normal then I accept this and I will just have to carry on.


Thanos Draicon
Wolf Pack Mentality
Blood and Steel
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:45:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: Gun Kata
In total I have done 100's of runs. The claim above happened recently. After getting a consistant average for a while and for it to drop suddenly I think I have the right to ask the question whether there is a problem or not.

If this is down to the 'roll of the dice' and bad luck then surely 'statistically' I would have had this bad luck a few times before?

Once again, Statistically Significant

Gun Kata
R.E.D Enterprises
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:46:00 - [14]
 

Originally by: Brutor Shaun
Lets face facts.

Invention was created to try and bring a balance to the T2 market. On most fronts it's succeeded.

It wasn't introduced to be an isk printing press like T2 BPOs are/were.

Unless you're willing to put in stacks of time/effort/isk/skills you will never become rich by inventing. In fact from my POV the only way I've found of making isk from invention is by selling datacores.

I gave up inventing month ago!




Heh thats fair enough.

I have put a lot of effort into this though - skills, isk, time etc. This just looked odd at the time.

Gun Kata
R.E.D Enterprises
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:47:00 - [15]
 

Originally by: Thanos Draicon
Originally by: Gun Kata
In total I have done 100's of runs. The claim above happened recently. After getting a consistant average for a while and for it to drop suddenly I think I have the right to ask the question whether there is a problem or not.

If this is down to the 'roll of the dice' and bad luck then surely 'statistically' I would have had this bad luck a few times before?

Once again, Statistically Significant


Thanks, I was just reading the exact same page.

Interesting stuff.

Thanos Draicon
Wolf Pack Mentality
Blood and Steel
Posted - 2007.09.25 17:53:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: Gun Kata
Originally by: Thanos Draicon
Originally by: Gun Kata
In total I have done 100's of runs. The claim above happened recently. After getting a consistant average for a while and for it to drop suddenly I think I have the right to ask the question whether there is a problem or not.

If this is down to the 'roll of the dice' and bad luck then surely 'statistically' I would have had this bad luck a few times before?

Once again, Statistically Significant


Thanks, I was just reading the exact same page.

Interesting stuff.

To summarize...due to the random nature of anything involving probability it's hard to get a good understanding of how probable any event is without repeating it a lot of times, hundreds at the very least, more often thousands or tens of thousands. So we can't really gauge anything based on ten, twenty, or even a hundred invention jobs.

Banana Torres
The Green Banana Corporation
Posted - 2007.09.25 18:02:00 - [17]
 

I did some sums and worked out there was a one in twenty chance of me failing 10 invention jobs in a row. (I only invent ships).

But I still think that the random number generator hates me. It knows when I am waiting for the BP and when I am just inventing cause I can.

So I just thumb my nose at it and buy my new toys off the market.


 

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