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blankseplocked Eve Online in self destruct mode? [Serious thread]
 
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Tuggboat
Minmatar
Posted - 2011.07.15 09:30:00 - [91]
 

Ya know I just realized something. I'm unsubbed so haven't signed on except for skills. LAst night I actually flew, moved some stuff around to accounts with time left ya know, Dang the client is hard on eyes for some reason. I just can't login for long. I can look at browser all nite but that client had me dead in an hour.

I got my own personal reasons for leaving, they seem different than most packaged excuses but theres little I can do in an hour to support a few toons even if its just ammo and frigates.

Another angle personal to me is that this summer is different than last because in real life im in an economic recovery whereas last summer I was not.

Othran
Brutor Tribe
Posted - 2011.07.15 09:30:00 - [92]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Why waste money in something that does not make you happy any more?

Masochistic nostalgia and force of habit. Like marriage Twisted Evil


Continuing down that analogy....

....that'd make Dust and WoD the kids in this "relationship". Dear gods who would want custody? Very Happy

/me gets his coat

Cailais
Amarr
Nasty Pope Holding Corp
Talocan United
Posted - 2011.07.15 09:41:00 - [93]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Added expansion limits for convenience.

Rev1,2 are the two phases of the Revelations expansion.
"SI1,2,3" are the three phases of (Sansha) Incursion deployment.
"CQ" is the first phase of "Incarna" (Captain's Quarters).
Rest should be obvious.


Got a bit messy, but, eh.



Interesting. That would suggest that EVEs best period of growth was between QR and Apoc.

Unholy Rage seems to have kneecapped that growth, so it could be that EVE had become extremely attractive to RMT botters post QR - but I doubt they would account for all of the growth.

Interestingly QR was billed (and hyped) as the 'industrial' expansion - so perhaps that was a big draw for new players?

C.

Tukashi Talie-Kuo
Posted - 2011.07.15 09:43:00 - [94]
 

Originally by: Othran
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Why waste money in something that does not make you happy any more?

Masochistic nostalgia and force of habit. Like marriage Twisted Evil


Continuing down that analogy....

....that'd make Dust and WoD the kids in this "relationship". Dear gods who would want custody? Very Happy

/me gets his coat
She's only after child support.

NickyYo
Posted - 2011.07.15 09:51:00 - [95]
 

Originally by: Zhothaqquah
Some are saying the old timers have left/are leaving, for whatever reasons (e.g. CCP are money grubbing scum, players are butthurt they can't afford $10k scorpions, etc, etc) and the current player base are a much newer player base.



Haha you obviously are not informed of what is currently happening to noobies in empire, they are all quiting and dont stay past their trials!

Our corp recruited over 300 noobies we had over 70 online at any point for about a week, then the bored 0.0 players come to empire to take it out and greif noobies. They have now all quit its happening to alot of corps. Red vd Blue has over 600 members and only get like 25 online these days. Eve university population is also declining.

Basically cut short, new players will come to the game stay for their trials and will then quit due to either harrasment or having to stick in an NPC corp being bored and solo.

edith prickley
Posted - 2011.07.15 11:16:00 - [96]
 

Originally by: Tippia
Edited by: Tippia on 15/07/2011 04:44:06
…it's also important to note that there is exactly one instance of summer numbers showing a consistent dip in the old ever-increasing accounts trend: 2009, when unholy rage nuked a couple of thousand bots.

So really, that's not a summer decrease — it's a "we adjust the curve x thousand accounts downward". If you take that into account, the summer of 2009 also showed the normal bump in players that had more free time to spend in the game. And that was without a patch to bring the players (back) in, since Apocrypha was released early.


The most recent large peak, and valley before it, also looks like it could be a seasonal variation. But overall, it looks to me like there hasn't been much of a consistent increase since end of 2009 or so, and I guess seasonal variations in the online numbers will likely become more obvious as the subscriber population stabilizes. One thing we might expect is that the online numbers will show more variation than subscriber numbers and will over/under predict in winter/summer respectively, if the plots are lined up as Akita has done.

There are some interesting quotes in the recent CSM minutes (from May):

"CSM was shown many graphs, including subscriber counts. It was noted that Tyrannis was, in CCP's eyes, a failed expansion in terms of expansion of the player base. There was a small bump in accounts which quickly leveled off. The pattern more recently has been steady growth, and the usually post-expansion "hangover" has been greatly delayed. They are also seeing the start of the expected jump in subscribers because of the upcoming Incarna expansion. The CSM felt that CCP’s subscription forecast was achievable. CCP Zulu believes that there is a lot of pent up demand for Incarna which will result in higher than normal post-expansion subscriber growth."

I find it difficult to see the features they're mentioning in our plot, but no doubt they have access to better data than we do. Based on what we do have, the "steady growth" they claim looks to be of a pretty small scale at best. It's probably too early to tell if Zulu's anticipated post-expansion subscriber growth will ever materialize, though it certainly hasn't yet.

We also don't know the scale of the anti-bot efforts, which may confuse the growth numbers if bots are being removed on the same scale as Unholy Rage. Of course, that also would indicate previous subscriber data are inflated by the re-growth of a significant bot population, so not really good news either. CCP seems reluctant to produce the new bot numbers, possibly exactly because they need to be careful about what the numbers reveal about the business side of things.

While we're being analytical, the big "Who Unsubscribed" thread currently claims 5836 accounts closed by 2589 players. That would give 2.25 accounts per player, if we consider that to be representative of the entire player base. (There are reasons why this might not be a good idea, but it's probably not horribly wrong either, and about as solid data as I've seen anyway.)
So if we assume 350k active accounts, then there are 155k actual human beings playing Eve. This is a pretty small number, and puts CCP's growth in perspective. Their business relies on a small number of users who are each willing to pay a lot. It would be interesting to know how that number evolves in time. Particularly for a MT game, increasing the number of actual players over multiple-alt accounts would be beneficial.

Valari Nala Zena
Caldari
Perkone
Posted - 2011.07.15 11:54:00 - [97]
 

Edited by: Valari Nala Zena on 15/07/2011 11:54:28
Baah, this again, EVE is dying since it started, threads like this are very common.

Put on your glass is half full monocle instead.

Since the beginning:
Miners have always been harassed.
Some if not most vets become bitter vets.
Old people quit, new people join, some stay, some don't, it's the way of things.
EVE has plenty players, more than it used to have years ago, to much if you ask me really.

Nullsec will be nullsec, RMT controlled or not.
Highsec will be highsec.

Btw, why should you care, if you care enough to quit, then quit and that will be the end of it.
If you care enough not to quit, then you don't care enough for it to make a difference to CCP.
After all, CCP looks at what you do, not at what you say.

Spurty
Caldari
V0LTA
VOLTA Corp
Posted - 2011.07.15 12:19:00 - [98]
 

Since CCP started their war on bots and macros we've seen a bigger decline than an uptake of new players.

Your stats miss such information, vital to analysis. At best you're scare mongering to create a self fullfiling destiny.

At worst, well anyone with an account can post trollop on the forums I suppose.

Perhaps I should leave a couple of accounts logged in all day .. Oh wait.. CQ sort of made that tough. Sooner use that CPU power to make real life ISK you see, so I log out instead. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

NickyYo
Posted - 2011.07.15 12:54:00 - [99]
 

Originally by: Spurty
Since CCP started their war on bots and macros we've seen a bigger decline than an uptake of new players.

Your stats miss such information, vital to analysis. At best you're scare mongering to create a self fullfiling destiny.

At worst, well anyone with an account can post trollop on the forums I suppose.

Perhaps I should leave a couple of accounts logged in all day .. Oh wait.. CQ sort of made that tough. Sooner use that CPU power to make real life ISK you see, so I log out instead. I'm sure I'm not the only one.


Proof please!

NickyYo
Posted - 2011.07.15 13:07:00 - [100]
 

Edited by: NickyYo on 15/07/2011 13:11:53

A more serious reply, do you really think CCP has banned 5k bots? do you know that is almost a $1.2 million a year loss for them.

The are strapped for cash atm aka the introduction of vanity items. This bot banning story is a load of crap just to cover up that they are infact losing members.

EDIT: Ive constan petitioned macros to CCP over months and the same guys are still macroing now. CCP lies!

Hoya en Marland
Posted - 2011.07.15 13:16:00 - [101]
 

I do believe that EVE is in decline, all signs are there.

Mr Dilkington
Posted - 2011.07.15 13:17:00 - [102]
 

Nah its not Dying, its summer which mean there are less players.
Dont believe everything the whiners and there alts write.

Cailais
Amarr
Nasty Pope Holding Corp
Talocan United
Posted - 2011.07.15 13:24:00 - [103]
 

Originally by: Mr Dilkington
Nah its not Dying, its summer which mean there are less players.
Dont believe everything the whiners and there alts write.


Confirming the internets are switched off during periods of warm weather.

C.

Important Person
Posted - 2011.07.15 13:26:00 - [104]
 

Originally by: NickyYo

A more serious reply, do you really think CCP has banned 5k bots? do you know that is almost a $1.2 million a year loss for them.



Cause all of those bots paid with subscription amirite?

Ghoest
Posted - 2011.07.15 13:31:00 - [105]
 

This is what happens when you go a year or two without adding any new content to an MMO.

Ramma Lamma DingDong
Posted - 2011.07.15 13:37:00 - [106]
 

I knew this thread was gonna be crap the minute I saw an Eve player talking about getting laid.

Abelard Nightbringer
New Foundation
Posted - 2011.07.15 13:40:00 - [107]
 

Originally by: Important Person
Originally by: NickyYo

A more serious reply, do you really think CCP has banned 5k bots? do you know that is almost a $1.2 million a year loss for them.



Cause all of those bots paid with subscription amirite?


cause bots can sign in and bot without a subscription, amirite? LOLOLO

Mr Dilkington
Posted - 2011.07.15 13:56:00 - [108]
 

Originally by: Cailais
Originally by: Mr Dilkington
Nah its not Dying, its summer which mean there are less players.
Dont believe everything the whiners and there alts write.


Confirming the internets are switched off during periods of warm weather.

C.


No need for the smarmy response, you know what i am getting at, bottom line is people do not game as much during the summer, especially in europe and russia.
Its the same every summer in most MMOs.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.07.15 14:42:00 - [109]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 15/07/2011 14:44:49
Originally by: Mr Dilkington
No need for the smarmy response, you know what i am getting at, bottom line is people do not game as much during the summer, especially in europe and russia. Its the same every summer in most MMOs.

The graphs don't consistently support that theory with easily noticeable figures that couldn't be explained by other factors.

P.S. If something changes, it's maybe the preferred activity types (to make it look as if people are playing less), but sub count and average online players don't seem to experience a visible drop in the summer for EVE.

Meridian Siri
Posted - 2011.07.15 14:44:00 - [110]
 

Seems to be a lot of statements about "trends" that are not too defensible (up/down; which is it, how many, etc.)

Has anyone done an actual analysis of the raw data and, if not, is there a location where the daily high/low numbers can be acquired? I think that this would be an interesting data set to tear into.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.07.15 14:45:00 - [111]
 

@Meridian Siri : go one page back.

NickyYo
Posted - 2011.07.15 14:55:00 - [112]
 

Originally by: Important Person
Originally by: NickyYo

A more serious reply, do you really think CCP has banned 5k bots? do you know that is almost a $1.2 million a year loss for them.



Cause all of those bots paid with subscription amirite?


lol everything is subscription based someone somewhere will be buying the plexes with real moneys and selling it for ingame iskies. In the end all the money ends up in CCP wallet.

Ira Theos
Posted - 2011.07.15 15:04:00 - [113]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Why waste money in something that does not make you happy any more?

Masochistic nostalgia and force of habit. Like marriage Twisted Evil


******

or possibly because I have paid for my sub by the year since 2005? (with 8 months left)
and then have some billions of isk to spend on plex to forum on after that?

I suspect though that Akita will still be posting long after I am gone though.

Simplus Massive
Posted - 2011.07.17 08:20:00 - [114]
 

Impressive drop over the last few days. Say.., a bounce before 25k if servers stop failing, like now?

Othran
Brutor Tribe
Posted - 2011.07.17 10:35:00 - [115]
 

Edited by: Othran on 17/07/2011 10:37:11
Originally by: Simplus Massive
Impressive drop over the last few days. Say.., a bounce before 25k if servers stop failing, like now?


Its not as bad as that graph suggests - its due to the way it calculates the averages. Watch what happens to the graph after Sunday night.

Tippia's graph is more useful to see the effect of Incarna/CCP leaks/broken servers really.

Edit - still a fair old drop though, not even able to break 40k on Friday. We'll see if the trend continues - I think Tippia is going to run the graph a couple more days.

Tippia
Caldari
Sunshine and Lollipops
Posted - 2011.07.17 22:10:00 - [116]
 

Originally by: Othran
Tippia's graph is more useful to see the effect of Incarna/CCP leaks/broken servers really.

Edit - still a fair old drop though, not even able to break 40k on Friday. We'll see if the trend continues - I think Tippia is going to run the graph a couple more days.
The spread sheet is set up to run to the 24th, so it'll be just over one month before and after the patch.

The last two Sundays have actually shown a tiiiiny amount of rebound, but the rest of the days are in the gutter (and even the Sundays have been much worse than before the patch) so the averages are not looking good. Neutral

Miilla
Minmatar
Hulkageddon Orphanage
Posted - 2011.07.17 22:26:00 - [117]
 

Edited by: Miilla on 17/07/2011 22:27:43




The "Commodore" effect.




Do'er of everything, master of nothing.

Then run panicing doing ANYTHING to catch up with the industry then fail.

Hawk Firestorm
Posted - 2011.07.17 23:17:00 - [118]
 

If Eve is declining its because its gameplay in many ways has declined over the years.

The Devs have made so many design mistake that made it live into the game as the player numbers have increased many of them are comming home to roost.

They vermently refused to expand the universe despite the playerbase being 50 fold more than it was at the start.

They didn't address corp and alliance sizes so gangs got steadily bigger and bigger, and unmanageable to the point its totally impossible to balance the game both for fleet and solo, ships getting ever bigger and bigger as a result, also trashing the tactical and fun fleet combat that it used to be.

Not allowing people to train all their characters on one account as per beta, and allowing multiple clients opening the door to mass scale bot farming.

The introduction of capturable stations that opened the door for entire community's to be torn apart to the point its a game ending event for many, especially older players that play more for their community overall.

The list is truely massive, all of them went live and have had a negative effect on the game.

Personally I would have taken what I had learnt from all these mistakes and started eve2 with a more robust design framework 5 years ago with a method of letting its exisisting user base migrate over in some fashion.

Eve has always ebed and flowed as far as user numbers go, generally its gone up, sad thing is as its gotten bigger the game has gotten worse, because the original base framework of the game just wasn't that well designed to cope with these numbers, the evidence of this is everywhere.

And CCP doesn't seem to know what to do about it, despite many trying to help them.

Gordon Fell
Posted - 2011.07.18 00:00:00 - [119]
 

The melodrama is strong here, but EVE needs a lot more than a little dip in player averages to crash into oblivion.

Miilla
Minmatar
Hulkageddon Orphanage
Posted - 2011.07.18 00:01:00 - [120]
 

Edited by: Miilla on 18/07/2011 00:01:55
Originally by: Gordon Fell
The melodrama is strong here, but EVE needs a lot more than a little dip in player averages to crash into oblivion.


*poltergeist* They're Here.... */poltergeist* http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1552703


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