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Val'Dore
Word Bearers of Chaos
Word of Chaos Undivided
Posted - 2011.05.31 04:52:00 - [1]
 

I'm not trying to regurgitate the current social expansion curfuffle. My concerns are not related to that or to AURUM.

I, and I would assume others, are interested in what exactly CCP has planned to do if the PLEXFlow is not going in the right direction.

Are you going to implement NPC market controls? If so, will your accountants be leaving some open job positions?

Are you going to directly alter player market trends by directly altering buy and sell orders for PLEX?

How are you going to make these control mechanisms work without both destroying the PLEXconomy and the problem they seem to be creating for CCP?

How are you going to deal with infuriated PLEXtraders? Or for that matter the general EvE population?

How do you respond to concerns that any course of action is going to have an immediate and decisively negative effect on the PLEX market?

Are you going to implement price fixing? If so, how are you going to counter the argument that you are locking in an RMT standard exchange rate?

How does your accounting department come to the conclusion that something is amiss in the first place? What evidence of a problem are they showcasing?

Anyway, any or all of these questions are soon going to be spooged all over this forum, so I thought I'd cap the well before British Petroleum got their hands on it.

Archbeholder
Posted - 2011.05.31 04:56:00 - [2]
 

A wizard will solve it.

Hecatonis
Amarr
Posted - 2011.05.31 05:02:00 - [3]
 

two ways would be the easiest

modify the amount of Aurum you get per plex or how much Aurum something costs you

Val'Dore
Word Bearers of Chaos
Word of Chaos Undivided
Posted - 2011.05.31 05:03:00 - [4]
 

Originally by: Hecatonis
two ways would be the easiest

modify the amount of Aurum you get per plex or how much Aurum something costs you


It has been indicated that the PLEX 'problem' exists already, so I'm not sure how AURUM trading can fix it.

EnslaverOfMinmatar
Amarr
Posted - 2011.05.31 05:17:00 - [5]
 

ISK will inflate

Val'Dore
Word Bearers of Chaos
Word of Chaos Undivided
Posted - 2011.05.31 06:26:00 - [6]
 

Originally by: EnslaverOfMinmatar
ISK will inflate


Are you sure?

fgft Athonille
Posted - 2011.05.31 07:28:00 - [7]
 

most likely, they will wait until the number hits their breakpoint, and then seed the market with npc orders at X amount in every region with plex.

stupid, but this is ccp. path of least resistance

Lidia Prince
Caldari
Posted - 2011.05.31 07:36:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: EnslaverOfMinmatar
ISK will inflate

Already, and slowly moving further. AUR shop should fix it a bit, if it will work as intended of course.

PLEX will probably continue to rise anyway, just like before. Damn, too much people choose to buy their game time via PLEX, why shouldn't it?

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.05.31 07:46:00 - [9]
 

MD has been discussing this ever since Doc.E.G. first blurted out his "we may or may not intervene in the PLEX market" line at the Fanfest presentation.
There is not much of a consensus on what he meant, but the general ideas that hold some water are that EITHER he was bluffing in hopes that the mere threat of intervention would stop any sudden fluctuations (yeah, right, as if that's going to happen) OR that CCP is willing to slightly shoot themselves in the foot by actually intervening (in which case, the only non-laughable method of intervention would be to put up CCP-controlled "fake player" orders for PLEX at certain values they wish to be the limits - in which case, for buy orders, they basically sell ISK assisting inflation, or, for sell orders, they are basically giving away free subscription time).

Surfin's PlunderBunny
Minmatar
Sebiestor Tribe
Posted - 2011.05.31 08:06:00 - [10]
 

Meh, with PLEX prices going insane I'll either make a ton of isk or not pay for Eve for the next year... either way I'm happy Very Happy

salty Milk
Posted - 2011.05.31 09:50:00 - [11]
 

to control plex prices on market i would

create feasible looking fake player accounts for free because i own the servers
create some plex for free because i own the servers
give the plex to the fake player
floodsell the plex on the market driving down prices

lol @ realising nobody will ever know

salty Milk
Posted - 2011.05.31 09:53:00 - [12]
 

Originally by: Akita T
(they are basically giving away free subscription time).


if only they could think of a way of sinking plex into something else that has no inherent value to avoid some of this unfortunate side effect

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.05.31 10:29:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: salty Milk
Originally by: Akita T
with CCP-controlled "fake player" sell orders for PLEX, they are basically giving away free subscription time

if only they could think of a way of sinking plex into something else that has no inherent value to avoid some of this unfortunate side effect

Right... because giving away some free subs to a several people in order to lower the price of PLEX which increased because of that other method of sinking PLEX meant to increase their revenue and diminish the amount of PLEX being stockpiled makes oh, so much sense... Rolling Eyes

salty Milk
Posted - 2011.05.31 10:31:00 - [14]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: salty Milk
Originally by: Akita T
with CCP-controlled "fake player" sell orders for PLEX, they are basically giving away free subscription time

if only they could think of a way of sinking plex into something else that has no inherent value to avoid some of this unfortunate side effect

Right... because giving away some free subs to a several people in order to lower the price of PLEX which increased because of that other method of sinking PLEX meant to increase their revenue and diminish the amount of PLEX being stockpiled makes oh, so much sense... Rolling Eyes


oooh akita eyeroll /emote i win!

Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
Posted - 2011.05.31 10:32:00 - [15]
 

NPC stealth buy orders.

Grey Stormshadow
Starwreck Industries
Posted - 2011.05.31 11:01:00 - [16]
 

As I already suggested in some other thread...

As plex really isn't item, but 30 days of game time, special rules should be applied to prevent market manipulation of such product.

Most efficient method I can come up with is really simple.

Bind the PLEX to account after it has changed hands in game first time. This can happen thru market, trading, contract, looting or by any other available method.

No more investing to PLEX. All PLEXes bought by players are converted to game time. CCP sets up fixed low buy order. If demand for game time is low, people sell directly to that. Problem solved.

Next task... create more isk sinks. Change current npc driven ship insurance system to contract based player corp controlled one to help with the cause. Introduce progressive sov holding fees/taxes for 0.0 alliances to combat rmt/botting/insane renting fees/isk faucets... and so on .)

Val'Dore
Word Bearers of Chaos
Word of Chaos Undivided
Posted - 2011.05.31 14:58:00 - [17]
 

Originally by: Akita T
MD has been discussing this ever since Doc.E.G. first blurted out his "we may or may not intervene in the PLEX market" line at the Fanfest presentation.
There is not much of a consensus on what he meant, but the general ideas that hold some water are that EITHER he was bluffing in hopes that the mere threat of intervention would stop any sudden fluctuations (yeah, right, as if that's going to happen) OR that CCP is willing to slightly shoot themselves in the foot by actually intervening (in which case, the only non-laughable method of intervention would be to put up CCP-controlled "fake player" orders for PLEX at certain values they wish to be the limits - in which case, for buy orders, they basically sell ISK assisting inflation, or, for sell orders, they are basically giving away free subscription time).


Right, I can't imagine that a solution worse than the problem would be their route of choice. Even given CCP's development history.

Originally by: salty Milk
to control plex prices on market i would

create feasible looking fake player accounts for free because i own the servers
create some plex for free because i own the servers
give the plex to the fake player
floodsell the plex on the market driving down prices

lol @ realising nobody will ever know


The problem with that is the same as if they used NPCs to do it. CCP is either losing actual revenue replaced with a currency sink or directly engaging in fixed RMT pricing allowing anyone to pay a standard rate for a standard amount of ingame currency. Neither would look good for CCP.

Originally by: Grey Stormshadow
As I already suggested in some other thread...

As plex really isn't item, but 30 days of game time, special rules should be applied to prevent market manipulation of such product.

Most efficient method I can come up with is really simple.

Bind the PLEX to account after it has changed hands in game first time. This can happen thru market, trading, contract, looting or by any other available method.

No more investing to PLEX. All PLEXes bought by players are converted to game time. CCP sets up fixed low buy order. If demand for game time is low, people sell directly to that. Problem solved.


That wouldn't necessarily solve the problem. It will just drive the prices of PLEX through the roof, since supply will take a major hit.

Grey Stormshadow
Starwreck Industries
Posted - 2011.05.31 15:13:00 - [18]
 

Originally by: Val'Dore

Originally by: Grey Stormshadow

As plex really isn't item, but 30 days of game time, special rules should be applied to prevent market manipulation of such product.

Most efficient method I can come up with is really simple.

Bind the PLEX to account after it has changed hands in game first time. This can happen thru market, trading, contract, looting or by any other available method.

No more investing to PLEX. All PLEXes bought by players are converted to game time. CCP sets up fixed low buy order. If demand for game time is low, people sell directly to that. Problem solved.


That wouldn't necessarily solve the problem. It will just drive the prices of PLEX through the roof, since supply will take a major hit.


Hmm why is that? The supply should remain pretty much same. Can't see how this would limit the people who buy the PLEXes from CCP and put them to the market for sale. They still can set the price and sell as many they want. Only the ones who buy the plex from market are pretty much commited to turn it to game time after this.

Mister Rocknrolla
Posted - 2011.05.31 15:35:00 - [19]
 


Why not just make the price of GTC fluctuate? That way they are not messing with the in-game economy. All PLEX originate with GTC purchases. Given the current price for PLEX, drop the price of GTC to 27,99. Probably won't make the CCP accountants happy, but accounting has never been an Icelandic strongsuit anyway. Wink

Of course, you start bumping into one of the original theories behind GTC/PLEX (alternative to RMT). But if the RMT fight is won on the enforcement front (supposed banning of thousands of accounts) then that give some flexibility to GTC pricing.

As has been stated in many threads, the current price run-up is probably being driven by PLEX speculators. There are plenty of PLEX in-game, they're just not on the market. The quicker AUR gets on the market to flush some of those out, the better.

Right now it's a battle between CCP and the speculators. Making rash decisions prior to implementation of AUR (to see how it shakes up the market) would be unlikely.

Also, as I recall Dr. E mentioned that no information about the "unseen hand" tweaking the market would be released until after the fact.


Steve Seninard
Posted - 2011.05.31 15:35:00 - [20]
 

So, basically, everyone living in their mother's basement who hasn't seen a job/daylight in 6 months is getting upset that they have to work harder to earn a free sub. Boo freaking hoo.

Hori To
Masuat'aa Matari
Posted - 2011.05.31 15:39:00 - [21]
 

this whole plex - elfmoney thing makes eve feel less like eve imho...

enterprisePSI
Unimatrix 0.1
Posted - 2011.05.31 15:42:00 - [22]
 

i dream of plex @ 800mil Very Happy

Riley Moore
Sentinum Research
Posted - 2011.05.31 15:42:00 - [23]
 

Originally by: Steve Seninard
So, basically, everyone living in their mother's basement who hasn't seen a job/daylight in 6 months is getting upset that they have to work harder to earn a free sub. Boo freaking hoo.


Students saving hard to continue paying university physics and astrology education who are finding it hard to get a job comfortable with their current curriculum time tables?

If so, Hi o/

Jaari Val'Dara
Caldari
Deep Space Nomads Corp
Posted - 2011.05.31 15:44:00 - [24]
 

Originally by: Steve Seninard
So, basically, everyone living in their mother's basement who hasn't seen a job/daylight in 6 months is getting upset that they have to work harder to earn a free sub. Boo freaking hoo.

People living in 3rd world countries where you can earn more in eve than in real life.

Val'Dore
Word Bearers of Chaos
Word of Chaos Undivided
Posted - 2011.05.31 16:14:00 - [25]
 

Originally by: Grey Stormshadow
Originally by: Val'Dore

Originally by: Grey Stormshadow

As plex really isn't item, but 30 days of game time, special rules should be applied to prevent market manipulation of such product.

Most efficient method I can come up with is really simple.

Bind the PLEX to account after it has changed hands in game first time. This can happen thru market, trading, contract, looting or by any other available method.

No more investing to PLEX. All PLEXes bought by players are converted to game time. CCP sets up fixed low buy order. If demand for game time is low, people sell directly to that. Problem solved.


That wouldn't necessarily solve the problem. It will just drive the prices of PLEX through the roof, since supply will take a major hit.


Hmm why is that? The supply should remain pretty much same. Can't see how this would limit the people who buy the PLEXes from CCP and put them to the market for sale. They still can set the price and sell as many they want. Only the ones who buy the plex from market are pretty much commited to turn it to game time after this.


The supply will drop, because the 'hoarders' will stop hoarding. I should clarify, the price will drop initially, then skyrocket.

Originally by: Steve Seninard
So, basically, everyone living in their mother's basement who hasn't seen a job/daylight in 6 months is getting upset that they have to work harder to earn a free sub. Boo freaking hoo.


You don't understand the topic of discussion.

zimboyed
Posted - 2011.05.31 16:37:00 - [26]
 

Originally by: Jaari Val'Dara
Originally by: Steve Seninard
So, basically, everyone living in their mother's basement who hasn't seen a job/daylight in 6 months is getting upset that they have to work harder to earn a free sub. Boo freaking hoo.

People living in 3rd world countries where you can earn more in eve than in real life.


you know this is so true

Jaari Val'Dara
Caldari
Deep Space Nomads Corp
Posted - 2011.05.31 16:54:00 - [27]
 

Originally by: zimboyed
Originally by: Jaari Val'Dara
Originally by: Steve Seninard
So, basically, everyone living in their mother's basement who hasn't seen a job/daylight in 6 months is getting upset that they have to work harder to earn a free sub. Boo freaking hoo.

People living in 3rd world countries where you can earn more in eve than in real life.


you know this is so true



Assuming you earn 50kk isk/h and assuming 40 hour work week, you can earn 104bill per year. Or 8.66bill a month. Plex prices are fluctuating much now, but lets assume them to be 400kk each. You can buy 21 plex each month. Thats 367$ a month. Thats slightly more than minimum wage in my country.
Thats not even considering that 50kk can be easily earned farming in null, you can easily increase that with some effort.

Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
Posted - 2011.05.31 17:08:00 - [28]
 

Originally by: Akita T
MD has been discussing this ever since Doc.E.G. first blurted out his "we may or may not intervene in the PLEX market" line at the Fanfest presentation.
There is not much of a consensus on what he meant, but the general ideas that hold some water are that EITHER he was bluffing in hopes that the mere threat of intervention would stop any sudden fluctuations (yeah, right, as if that's going to happen) OR that CCP is willing to slightly shoot themselves in the foot by actually intervening (in which case, the only non-laughable method of intervention would be to put up CCP-controlled "fake player" orders for PLEX at certain values they wish to be the limits - in which case, for buy orders, they basically sell ISK assisting inflation, or, for sell orders, they are basically giving away free subscription time).


CCP can sell some isk via plex creation without creating inflation with tiny other steps that they take already.

CCp can sell some extra plex without costing them real $ doing so.

I see the anger over plex market intervention coming from players under some delusion that they create isk by ratting, that their labor has created it, not some arbitrary CCP choice . They’re also under some moral delusion that CCP is required by what is good and right and honest in the world to link game time to isk value and that its not just one other balancing concern like what should drop in a wreck, or how much minerals can come out of a moon monthly, or what the speed of a new ship should be.

Separate the moral and the practical arguments. We can’t talk intelligently about either if combining the two…it turns into whack-a-mole.


We can talk about if it would work. ( I know that you could make it work)

We can talk about whether it is something that violates trust of players. (we could differ here but practicality has nothing to do with it)

Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
Posted - 2011.05.31 17:15:00 - [29]
 

On the MD board there is hardly any consensus with the rabid lassiz-faire group outright rejecting interference more as a matter of philosophy than practicality. Many same people also have huge issues with RL international finance and strongly believe that the world financial crisis would have been avoided had there been no governments rather than believing that the failure was lack of stricter oversight of the banks ala depression era laws by the Federal Reserve. They hold rather extreme views RL, whether right or wrong.
In my opinion, they’re bringing some extreme views, largely based on something close to a Ayne Rand moral philosophy of government and even if those were to apply in RL, to bring them to a utterly contrived economy where player contribution is far higher than most other games but probably still only 50% of the economy. Spawing of resources, item drops, bounty levels and frequency are all dialed up and down, entirely elective to game balance and are in no way disclosed as fixed game rules and which rates would not change without specific disclosure of the new rates.


Back to Akita's points.

He says the right thing about possible actions but casts them in negative light implying that they would be unworkable.

He’s correct that stealth plex purchases would effectively be selling some isk directly to players. But implying that would be unworkable on its face drastically simplifies the issue and approaches the point of being a rhetorical fallacy.

Selling isk would only cause inflation to the extent they needed to buy plex to stabilize the price on the downside (I'd estimate a 300 million-ish downside target). I would grant that replacing the entire volume of the $>plex>isk trade would be difficult for them to do without inflation (and hence a good reason for them adopting the entirely un-required option to link free game time to isk transfers).

But to stabilize the price of a commodity like plex, they would only need to make purchases of a small fraction of market volume, and likely only during select times where demand varies related to things like holiday/acamemic callender and expansion cycles. Purchases in the %5 of annual volume range, maybe 10 to 15% of volume during those select cycles would be enough.
Assuming however that protecting the downside did require purchases of 10% of annual volume .. that ammount could be made up with new isk sinks (selling specialty clothing itmes during special promotion for isk, not aurum would be a good temporary sink – I’d never buy them but all it would take would be for some players to be interested) Alternatively they could just adjust the isk faucet flow rate at those times .. most easily the isk bounties paid.... just less 1.5 million spawns, replaced with 1.3 million spawns...mission battleships maybe 430k instead of 465k etc .

On the other side of the equation, capping plex price, to the extent that they “resold” the plex they bought at low parts of the cycle , there would be no impact.

That brings us to the other rhetorical flourish, that CCP would suddenly be “giving away free game time” if they introduced more plex to the market.

Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
Posted - 2011.05.31 17:19:00 - [30]
 

(continued)

.....

Hand and hand with the notion that CCP doesn’t create isk when they pay bounties, that it is somehow created by players killing the rats….not just a timing of the ccp creation, people vehemently opposed to intervention have the notion that because players have bought game time with real $ that the average plex activated costs CCP something close to that amount in forgone income .

We could all come up with our own seat of the pants estimates, but even the most assumptions based on some good faith pencil to paper consideration could hardly exceed 50% of plex transferred being used for accounts that players would have otherwise paid for. I have 5 accounts, all for free now, but I’m pretty sure that I’d only be paying $15 a month and have let the other 4 accounts go if the free game time option didn’t exist…they are only there for expanding my game play options based on what I’d earned playing the game…just like an epic drop in another game makes my character more powerful. Playing to the game to earn a scout on and second account alt is also and advance based on game grind.. On top of that, A fair number of players wouldn’t play at all without a free to play option, but those players still have some $ value to CCP as they might occasionally pay a month here or there, or more importantly attract or retain gamer friends of their s who are paying customers. Word of mouth is by far the best advertising.

I’d be surprised if the variable expenses of having even another RL player logging in regurlary would cost them even 1$ a month in extra variable expenses. A 5th account probably doesn’t even cost them even 20 cents a month more as it wouldn’t have any net increase in my online time as I’d never have all of the accounts logged in simultaneously and rarely even 3.

TLDR on point intervention on the upside -- plex used for free play cannibalize very few cash sales and have very little financial impact on CCP… if they created enough plex to stabilize markets on the upside, they’d cost themselves very little in terms of extra expenses, and I’ve made detailed arguments on the MD board that I suspect they net noticeably fewer $plex sales as the prices rise beyond a certain point as the buyers isk needs are fulfilled with less $ and to a degree, the higher plex/isk prices disgruntle a few percent more players out of the game.

My main point:
CCP can sell some isk via plex creation without creating inflation with tiny other steps that they take already.

CCp can sell some extra plex without costing them real $ doing so.


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