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Tutomech
Posted - 2011.05.03 09:44:00 - [1]
 

Hello all!

I finally completed first version of my own PI profitability calculator.

This morning price pull from eve-central showed me an interesting (but not surprising) result:

Quote:

Schematic 90 [ level: P3 ]
+ Condensates(2344) 22.000,00 ISK / 27.350,00 ISK [tax 600,00 ISK] x 3
- Oxides(2317) 6.216,39 ISK / 6.599,98 ISK [tax 4,50 ISK] x 10 = 66.044,84
- Coolant(9832) 6.010,27 ISK / 6.297,96 ISK [tax 4,50 ISK] x 10 = 63.024,60
Jita profits:
1-run: build = -64.869,44 ISK / sell order = -49.902,81 ISK / sell and buy order = -44.841,79 ISK
1-batch(333 runs): build = -21.601.522,00 ISK / sell order = -16.617.637,00 ISK / sell and buy order = -14.932.316,00 ISK
return-cost ratio: income -64.869,44 ISK / cost 129.069,44 ISK = -50,26%



Which has given me idea that this might be an interesting product for price manipulations.
Unfortunately I have a few holdback thoughts:
1) I do not have enough cash to enter in.
2) The product price is still falling instead of rising.
3) Is there enough daily trade for the market to adjust and as a consequence to make profit?

Any insight and comments from the trade gurus is very welcome.

Wyke Mossari
Gallente
Posted - 2011.05.03 10:10:00 - [2]
 


PI prices are crashing across the board, most are unprofitable to make the only rational explanation is chronic over supply and there is no evidence that CCP intend to change it.

Hieronimus Rex
Minmatar
Infinitus Sapientia
Hav0k.
Posted - 2011.05.03 23:00:00 - [3]
 

I recommend buying guidance systems as they are heavily undervalued.

Candy Oshea
Amarr
Techfree Investment Group
Posted - 2011.05.03 23:16:00 - [4]
 

Originally by: Hieronimus Rex
I recommend buying guidance systems as they are heavily undervalued.


i certainly wouldn't for short term, medium term but for 2-3-4 years+ sure. Those have dropped 11% in price last i checked as i think someone cashed in there chips at 20k. far too much stock out there.

PI needs to be re-processable, then the smarter player can reprocess back to P0, this will stabilize the PI markets somewhat.

Until then its a free for all of "free p0 as i extracted it myself"

Tutskii
Posted - 2011.05.04 00:18:00 - [5]
 

1. Buy Guidance Systems
2.????
3. Red Titan

Hieronimus Rex
Minmatar
Infinitus Sapientia
Hav0k.
Posted - 2011.05.04 01:32:00 - [6]
 

Originally by: Candy Oshea
Originally by: Hieronimus Rex
I recommend buying guidance systems as they are heavily undervalued.


i certainly wouldn't for short term, medium term but for 2-3-4 years+ sure. Those have dropped 11% in price last i checked as i think someone cashed in there chips at 20k. far too much stock out there.

PI needs to be re-processable, then the smarter player can reprocess back to P0, this will stabilize the PI markets somewhat.

Until then its a free for all of "free p0 as i extracted it myself"


It was a joke .... I wouldn't expect them to be profitable for closer to 10 years...just looking at the hundreds of millions that were probably purchased in each region, compared to the maybe 100-200k in consumed volume every day?

PI reprocessing would be awesome, but I doubt it's going to happen. It would crash every market for inputs to guidance systems and many of the POS components (since ME research would now be relevant to component costs)

Tutomech
Posted - 2011.05.04 08:12:00 - [7]
 

Well got to take what I can get. Was hoping more for arguments for or against investing into that PI product.

But some of you barely hinted (if i can read behind the lines), it is time to wait a bit for the markets to settle.


Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.04 09:45:00 - [8]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 04/05/2011 09:45:26
Originally by: Tutomech
Well got to take what I can get. Was hoping more for arguments for or against investing into that PI product.

But some of you barely hinted (if i can read behind the lines), it is time to wait a bit for the markets to settle.



There's no need for a lot of arguments:

1) The fundamentals are tanking.
2) You have scared money, a jargon term to say: not enough capitalization and thus you know you will be steamrolled and thus you won't be in pristine mental condition to act timely and correctly.
3) You don't know technical analysis and price action so you can't really trade counter trend. Even if you knew it, you have scared money and you should only go counter trend when you have solid balls of metal.
4) Given the above, stay out of potential falling knives. They hurt.

Tutomech
Posted - 2011.05.04 10:33:00 - [9]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 04/05/2011 09:45:26
Originally by: Tutomech
Well got to take what I can get. Was hoping more for arguments for or against investing into that PI product.

But some of you barely hinted (if i can read behind the lines), it is time to wait a bit for the markets to settle.



There's no need for a lot of arguments:

1) The fundamentals are tanking.
2) You have scared money, a jargon term to say: not enough capitalization and thus you know you will be steamrolled and thus you won't be in pristine mental condition to act timely and correctly.
3) You don't know technical analysis and price action so you can't really trade counter trend. Even if you knew it, you have scared money and you should only go counter trend when you have solid balls of metal.
4) Given the above, stay out of potential falling knives. They hurt.


Thank you for a verbose replay.

But i still do not understand if the output product price is correct, how come, the input prices are not adjusting?

Either the inputs are overpriced or the output is underpriced. Is there a 3rd option?

So if the inputs were overpriced, then there would be a neat margin in production of those input materials. But if the product was underpriced, then it should be showing some steps in the direction of price correction.

But I do not see a good margin in manufacturing inputs and no signs of price adjustment for condensates.
(Trying to figure out the cause-consequence chain for the current price anomaly.)

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.04 11:50:00 - [10]
 

I am sorry, I can't thoroughly check your issue because I am totally busy RL trading and learning.

The discrepancies in chains of production happen indeed, expecially at turning point periods like this, right before general tanking of prices across the board.

The underlying markets each have their own velocity and inertia, the products markets have yet another velocity and inertia.

Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
Posted - 2011.05.06 12:26:00 - [11]
 


To many idiots thinking minerals you mine yourself are free.


 

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