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Ghoest
Posted - 2011.05.11 04:19:00 - [31]
 

Many of the markets where you can make money the easiest are best analyzed just with observation.

They jump wildly because

-people randomly decide to cash out large amounts of goods, if they are in a hurry they do it way below market. Often the markets will decide to follow them down.

-a couple of low volume traders will decide to have a price war using 100s instead of .00s Often the market follows.

-some one decides to buy out the market and set a new price(and this is fairly easy considering the huge reserves many traders have compared to actual value in the markets.) Often the market follows.

If you stick with minerals etc. This is minimized but they really arent the best places to make money. The crazy volatile markets have the best returns if you understand them and can recognize whats going on.

isioisi
Posted - 2011.07.26 03:45:00 - [32]
 

Wouldn't it be possible to pull the data from ingame, o/h/l/c, and load it into, say, metastock? That'd give you the freedom to use your own strategies and indicators?

Nomad I
Posted - 2011.07.26 07:11:00 - [33]
 

For AmiBrocker you should be able to make an import interface.

MMarlon
SRBI
Circle-Of-Two
Posted - 2011.07.26 09:19:00 - [34]
 

TL;DR
In short, tested and tested and tested for loong time.
TA does not work in EVE, tens of factors that will make it not working, even on most liquid items.
But that's my opinion, sure there are TA advocates that will stand that my magic sucks.

Kara Books
Posted - 2011.07.26 09:45:00 - [35]
 

I like to use my own everything.

I dont like complicated, SIMPLE is best.

Claire Voyant
Posted - 2011.07.26 12:48:00 - [36]
 

Originally by: MMarlon
TL;DR
In short, tested and tested and tested for loong time.
TA does not work in EVE, tens of factors that will make it not working, even on most liquid items.
But that's my opinion, sure there are TA advocates that will stand that my magic sucks.


Good points. There are two separate questions:
1. Does TA work in RL?
2. Does TA work in Eve?
I happen to think that TA doesn't work in RL, but that is not the important point.
Eve markets are "spot" markets in which you need to have the physical commodities in station in order to sell. They are not speculative markets where you can take long and short positions willy-nilly on margin. This breaks all of the assumptions of TA or at least the idea that if TA worked in RL it should therefore work in Eve.

It is important to remember that VV is a RP eve player. That means he was a RP auditor and is a RP technical analyst geek. He makes the graphs, he does the analysis, but he doesn't trade. As far as anyone can tell he mines ice and sells the products. That is the extent of his market activity in Eve.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.07.26 15:17:00 - [37]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 26/07/2011 15:22:09
Originally by: Claire Voyant

It is important to remember that VV is a RP eve player. That means he was a RP auditor and is a RP technical analyst geek. He makes the graphs, he does the analysis, but he doesn't trade. As far as anyone can tell he mines ice and sells the products. That is the extent of his market activity in Eve.


No, my repeated, loud and asinine gloating on SCC Lounge about how much I was happy with my last trades should tell you that I also trade(d). Before the sub expired (all of them are going that way), I had an alt sitting at Jita just to buy and sell stuff based on TA.


Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: MMarlon
TL;DR
In short, tested and tested and tested for loong time.
TA does not work in EVE, tens of factors that will make it not working, even on most liquid items.
But that's my opinion, sure there are TA advocates that will stand that my magic sucks.


Good points. There are two separate questions:
1. Does TA work in RL?
2. Does TA work in Eve?
I happen to think that TA doesn't work in RL, but that is not the important point.
Eve markets are "spot" markets in which you need to have the physical commodities in station in order to sell. They are not speculative markets where you can take long and short positions willy-nilly on margin. This breaks all of the assumptions of TA or at least the idea that if TA worked in RL it should therefore work in Eve.



TA works on markets and market work both in EvE and RL. The guys who tried with 1990s crapware / scamware aka squiggly indicators OF COURSE got, get and will get burned.

They have to throw away all that garbage and get back to reading the naked price and its swings. Sure, *that* TA is not the modern scammy TA sold as the 5 minutes get rich quick scheme. It takes several months just to begin really reading the price, but that makes no good for e-marketeers who want to sgnatch quick money from wannabe new traders.

Therefore - and I am sure this is at the foundation of so much confusion and hostility - there are *two* TAs. One is the fake post 1980 one and no term may describe how much it fails, then there is PASR TA (price action based on swings, supports and resistances) that is vastly cheaper (as in totally free = BAD for modern marketeers who want to sell you DA Proprietary Indeecator!), almost broker costs free (and brokers - the maximum sellers of "5 minutes trading" HATE it) and simple to do. Notice simple <> easy, in fact it takes considerable practice to learn and to avoid the many pitfalls.

Edit: I mentioned 1980 and 1990 as symbolic times when squiggly lines based TA started showing its ugly face but was not automated (some early such TA traders used to calculate indicators on paper), then around the second date, computerized squiggly lines TA became more prominent.

Esan Vartesa
East Khanid Trading
Khanid Trade Syndicate
Posted - 2011.07.26 16:01:00 - [38]
 


When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.


War Kitten
Panda McLegion
Posted - 2011.07.26 19:06:00 - [39]
 

tl;dr: Don't buy the snake oil, buy low sell high.

I got all sucked into that whirlwind of forexwhatever.com, read some of the links, tried to make heads or tails of James16 the genius that can't spell but types a lot, and all it seemed to boil down to was figuring out if you'd seen the price turning in a different direction.

There were eleventy different pins and eyes and noses and candles and theories and magic spells, and it all looked like a lot of feel-good quackery about predicting (or more accurately, noticing quickly after-the-fact) a price swing - and every theory had the same caveat: Don't bet the farm, you might get it wrong.

Well duh.

Esan Vartesa
East Khanid Trading
Khanid Trade Syndicate
Posted - 2011.07.26 19:44:00 - [40]
 


Back when I was living in a 3rd world country and all I had to amuse myself was a really crappy internet connection, I tried the Forex thing for some laughs. Unlike real trading, those end-user forex clients are pretty much a way to turn real money into what feels like a video game, with all the standard hallmarks of your typical free-to-play MMO. A 24 hour cycle, forums to promote a competitive atmosphere, and an interface that just goads you into always wanting to make a trade even if the time isn't right for it, it's insanely addictive.

Anyway, after the 3rd cycle of turning $500 into $30,000 into $100 (yes real USD, not a trial account), you start to pick up on the reality that the use of TA for short-term trading is your typical self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone is constantly hawking their "winning system", which if widely taken up works brilliantly because it's essentially a way of causing a whole bunch of small traders to act like one massive trader. Everybody wins...

...until the market does something REAL. When that happens, be it a central banker speech or a bomb going off, the collusive power of all those traders is brushed aside by an authentic and legitimate market movement. And even though that movement is often temporary and prices gradually return to pre-event levels, all those little traders have by then chucked their communal playbook in the bin because they've lost faith. Until the next guy convinces everyone with a new "system".

TA is not a crystal ball, it's a conductor. Get everyone singing to the same tune, and you have beautiful music.

GreasyCarl Semah
Posted - 2011.07.26 19:55:00 - [41]
 

I work for a private equity real estate fund IRL. I am also a value oriented investor in the real life market but do some short term trading of options, mostly naked puts at prices that value analysis supports.

TA is a real tool that works. But like most tools, the snake oil salesmen sell it as something that is easily mastered. Nothing in real life investing is easily mastered. To think that you can get rich quick is a fantasy in most cases and you will lose your money over the long term. Any given strategy can work over the short term but over a period of years you can be fleeced by the market. It happens every day. With value investing, it takes hours of research and modeling to determine if you should buy a stock. TA is much the same way except that you spend those hours not actually reading charts but perfecting your technique at reading the charts and figuring out what makes sense.

I have a friend who is a TA trader in his spare time. He also runs a computer consulting company. His formal education is in mathematics. In the past he owned part of a day trading firm and watched "traders" come and go. Many start off great but get wore down over time, losing slightly more than they win. When the market is going up, most daytraders do well, when it goes down over a long period, they get destroyed. This guy, went on from the daytrader operation to found a computer consulting business. On a given night after work he quickly analyzes about 1500 charts for pricing trends that he may find interesting. The next day he places trades on those charts, to both open and close out that day. He attempts to make a profit on 54% of his trades. He has done pretty well at it from what I understand. It isn't the way I conduct my operation but it works for him and I suspect it works for a lot of other people. Of course a lot of people also go bankrupt doing it as well.

Words to live by IRL trading: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." - John Maynard Keynes

GreasyCarl Semah
Posted - 2011.07.26 19:59:00 - [42]
 

Originally by: Esan Vartesa

Back when I was living in a 3rd world country and all I had to amuse myself was a really crappy internet connection, I tried the Forex thing for some laughs. Unlike real trading, those end-user forex clients are pretty much a way to turn real money into what feels like a video game, with all the standard hallmarks of your typical free-to-play MMO. A 24 hour cycle, forums to promote a competitive atmosphere, and an interface that just goads you into always wanting to make a trade even if the time isn't right for it, it's insanely addictive.

Anyway, after the 3rd cycle of turning $500 into $30,000 into $100 (yes real USD, not a trial account), you start to pick up on the reality that the use of TA for short-term trading is your typical self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone is constantly hawking their "winning system", which if widely taken up works brilliantly because it's essentially a way of causing a whole bunch of small traders to act like one massive trader. Everybody wins...

...until the market does something REAL. When that happens, be it a central banker speech or a bomb going off, the collusive power of all those traders is brushed aside by an authentic and legitimate market movement. And even though that movement is often temporary and prices gradually return to pre-event levels, all those little traders have by then chucked their communal playbook in the bin because they've lost faith. Until the next guy convinces everyone with a new "system".

TA is not a crystal ball, it's a conductor. Get everyone singing to the same tune, and you have beautiful music.


This is why it is often referred to as "momentum investing".

Esan Vartesa
East Khanid Trading
Khanid Trade Syndicate
Posted - 2011.07.26 20:05:00 - [43]
 


Ride the wave, man. Ride the wave.

Adonis Peverell
Posted - 2011.07.26 20:22:00 - [44]
 

I know very little about in-depth market analysis, but just something to keep in mind: If you have 10 successful traders who swear by some method or another, that doesn't mean it actually works. There could be 1000 others in the wings who lost money using it. Only by controlling for other variables and finding the ratio of winners to losers using that system could you see a statistically significant number on how T.A. or any other technique affects profit percentages. Since it's not an algorithmic process, and just one of many things people may use, this is nigh on impossible to do, and makes it really difficult to say that it works or not.

OllieNorth
Gallente
R-K Industries
Posted - 2011.07.26 21:44:00 - [45]
 

I love watching all of MD turn into a seething mass of angry slobbering whenever anyone mentions the phrase TA. It's like bringing up abortion at a party.

Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr
Royal Amarr Institute
Posted - 2011.07.26 21:59:00 - [46]
 

Originally by: OllieNorth
I love watching all of MD turn into a seething mass of angry slobbering whenever anyone mentions the phrase TA. It's like bringing up abortion at a party.


lol

MMarlon
SRBI
Circle-Of-Two
Posted - 2011.07.26 22:29:00 - [47]
 

I find very familiar replies for TA from people here, have heard just the same alot of times in RL.
Story goes like this:
1. Hyper production of economists and wannabe last decades, and not as many work places.
2. Being young without experience or just bad in the field don't brings you employment.

Ta-daaa: TA is your saviour! Mumble all the time, swing the hands up and down and speak rubbish without proveable value brings desk and chair in investment fund or brokerage easyer than to speak clearly and remove any doubt about your abilityes.

Not much but look it's better than street: couple of months, maybe a year job, then fired, than rinse and start again in next company. A company who have funds and desperately seeking that 0.1% overall success improvement in their business; which, never come or is pure luck short-term.
And the best is, no living soul on earth can prove you're good or you're not. Just great!

Manager: What to do now with this stock? I really need your opinion, buy, sell or stay?
TA guru: No, no, you don't understand, that swing from a week ago with that one from 2 months ago and...mumble mumble...which caused this retreat here...mumble mumble...resistance here...
Manager: -Fired- Bring the next kid, please.

Have never seen a single one TA guy that is worth putting your fund money to gamble with.
But again, maybe it's my bad karma. The theory behind sounds solid enough and it's worth a time to try.
And maybe there is a TA guru out there who can read a market as open book and is very rich as a side effect of his talent.
But I'm sure he don't speak about and keep his golden well for personal use.

Dr Slaughter
Minmatar
Coreli Corporation
Naraka.
Posted - 2011.07.27 13:21:00 - [48]
 

Originally by: trianna Ekanon

Not a hobbyist, an actual professional.

Short answer, more or less.

Eve has an incredibly rudimentary trade system, which is still light years beyond other mmos but painfully limited compared to rl trading. You can identify some very basic trade signals with the tools we have, but part the actual market volume is pretty low that signals can easily get muddled by a few "whoops" clicks on selling and trading.

I really dislike eve's use of donchian bands especially, I'd much rather have bollinger bands for a good break out indicator, granted id also give an arm and a leg to get a proper candlestick chart to go along regardless. Ability to adjust the n-periods on mda and donchian at the very least if we didnt get more sophisticated tools is a must, its almost criminal not to have it. Sadly revamping the market tools wouldn't appeal to a lot of current or even future gamers and will never get funded.

Trianna CCP use a third party DLL to generate the market graphs. If I remember correctly Chart director supports other graph types. I think they would just need to do a client update to enable them. Eve's using 5.0.3 which appears to be newer than the current release ;)

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.07.27 14:46:00 - [49]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 27/07/2011 14:50:12
Originally by: GreasyCarl Semah

TA is a real tool that works. But like most tools, the snake oil salesmen sell it as something that is easily mastered. Nothing in real life investing is easily mastered. To think that you can get rich quick is a fantasy in most cases and you will lose your money over the long term. Any given strategy can work over the short term but over a period of years you can be fleeced by the market. It happens every day. With value investing, it takes hours of research and modeling to determine if you should buy a stock. TA is much the same way except that you spend those hours not actually reading charts but perfecting your technique at reading the charts and figuring out what makes sense.



What he says.

Also, one of the hardest points of TA is that the TA that gets sold is not the TA that works. The former is fake, flashy, costs money in squallid e-books or roboant "indicators". It's packaged as shiny get rich quick scheme and indeed it's snake oil salesman territory. Then wannabe traders buy such packages and get burned again and again and blame and hate TA instead of asking themselves the crucial question:

"If it looked too good to be true, why have I been such an idiot?"

But no, for the same reason they will always fail, they blame the tool not themselves having been tools.

Then there's the "other" TA, which requires time, effort, study, practice and does not promise instant billions. It's completely free to learn and requires nothing more than a bare chart.

No one wants to learn it, because it costs time and effort. They don't understand that the very fact they prefer the modern instant gratification monkey ways is what grants they will never be profitable.

Therefore the majority of the population only get to know (and be busted and then hate) by the fake e-marketeers of shiny crap, while the big :effort: TA twin is ignored and not known.
This is a pity, because they will never experience something truly rewarding and bringing economic independence.

Nimrod Nemesis
Amarr
Royal Amarr Institute
Posted - 2011.07.27 15:40:00 - [50]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Then there's the "other" TA, which requires time, effort, study, practice and does not promise instant billions. It's completely free to learn and requires nothing more than a bare chart.

No one wants to learn it, because it costs time and effort. They don't understand that the very fact they prefer the modern instant gratification monkey ways is what grants they will never be profitable.


I'm sure everyone is out there falling for the "instant billions," trick. Rolling Eyes And your completely free method is nothing more than a few dozen forum goers at forexfactory circle-jerking on a chart and claiming that they saw this and that movement or "what do you think this movement is?"

No one wants to learn it because it is clearly nonsense. These people don't prefer the "omg billionz nao," (those idiots probably are at your forum right now) they simply read the TA premise, took a gander at the chart-work, and laughed good and hard at all the hurf blurf.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.07.27 18:20:00 - [51]
 

Originally by: Nimrod Nemesis
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Then there's the "other" TA, which requires time, effort, study, practice and does not promise instant billions. It's completely free to learn and requires nothing more than a bare chart.

No one wants to learn it, because it costs time and effort. They don't understand that the very fact they prefer the modern instant gratification monkey ways is what grants they will never be profitable.


I'm sure everyone is out there falling for the "instant billions," trick. Rolling Eyes And your completely free method is nothing more than a few dozen forum goers at forexfactory circle-jerking on a chart and claiming that they saw this and that movement or "what do you think this movement is?"

No one wants to learn it because it is clearly nonsense. These people don't prefer the "omg billionz nao," (those idiots probably are at your forum right now) they simply read the TA premise, took a gander at the chart-work, and laughed good and hard at all the hurf blurf.


I suppose the 6200+ pages of the James16 thread on the very same thing were also joined by a bare dozen of people, since 2005. Yes, indeed.


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