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Blueprint Seller
Posted - 2011.05.02 09:11:00 - [121]
 

Originally by: Syds Sinclair
Now onto the what I consider to be the real beef with your offering.

Motive.

I approached this offering on the basis that the ultimate motive was to sell on the business to a new operator once a high price for the shares had been established in the secondary market.

I therefore began asking the kind of questions I would ask if I was purchasing the entire business. I asked to see the books.

Having received a very negative response I concluded that it was impossible to know if the business was in a fit state to be sold and therefore I had no choice but to write it off as a viable investment.

Syds Sinclair
Posted - 2011.05.02 09:30:00 - [122]
 

Originally by: Blueprint Seller
Originally by: Syds Sinclair
Now onto the what I consider to be the real beef with your offering.

Motive.

I approached this offering on the basis that the ultimate motive was to sell on the business to a new operator once a high price for the shares had been established in the secondary market.

I therefore began asking the kind of questions I would ask if I was purchasing the entire business. I asked to see the books.

Having received a very negative response I concluded that it was impossible to know if the business was in a fit state to be sold and therefore I had no choice but to write it off as a viable investment.


..I'm too tired and just wrote a few long winded posts, so I'll keep it simple: Assuming that the ultimate motive was to sell the business was your first mistake. Ignoring answers and being argumentative/hard headed was your second.


Blueprint Seller
Posted - 2011.05.02 09:41:00 - [123]
 

Originally by: Syds Sinclair
..I'm too tired and just wrote a few long winded posts, so I'll keep it simple: Assuming that the ultimate motive was to sell the business was your first mistake. Ignoring answers and being argumentative/hard headed was your second.

I did not assume the ultimate motive was to sell the business. I approached the offering on that basis.

I also did not ignore any of the answers given.

I will accept that I was argumentative. But I feel that is a perfectly viable approach.

I am not sure how you come to the conclusion that any of these things were mistakes given the outcome.

xKillswitchx
APEX ARDENT COALITION
NEM3SIS.
Posted - 2011.05.02 10:36:00 - [124]
 

My only question to your post is why would you need investors? You said your casino is turning over 1 Bil isk per day profit, then why would you need any additional capital?? You should be turning a 30 Bil profit per month and I don't know that raising additional capital is really going to increase that monthly profit margin.

Not saying that this is a scam or anything, just wondering why such a successful business would need to raise additional capital when you are probably sitting on 100+ Billion isk at the moment.

Edwin Rothbard
Interstellar Arbitrage
Posted - 2011.05.02 11:13:00 - [125]
 

Edited by: Edwin Rothbard on 02/05/2011 18:16:10
consolidating into post #7.

Blueprint Seller
Posted - 2011.05.02 11:18:00 - [126]
 

Originally by: xKillswitchx
My only question to your post is why would you need investors? You said your casino is turning over 1 Bil isk per day profit, then why would you need any additional capital?? You should be turning a 30 Bil profit per month and I don't know that raising additional capital is really going to increase that monthly profit margin.

Not saying that this is a scam or anything, just wondering why such a successful business would need to raise additional capital when you are probably sitting on 100+ Billion isk at the moment.

If Edwin sells some shares at 100m per share then following one method of valuation his business is worth:

100m x 10,000 shares = 1,000,000m

If the secondary market begins to trade those shares at a premium then using the same method of valuation his business is worth:

1,000,000m + ( premium x 10,000)

If Edwin wishes to sell his operation on to a new owner then such a valuation will be a viable starting point for price negotiatons.

He will get less than the final valuation for this set of shares but it is worth it in the longer term.

Debate on if this method of valuation is valid is a seperate topic. Even if you believe that method to be totally wrong it still gives Edwin an additional position to negotiate from.

If Edwin was to sell on this business for 1.5t isk in six months time he would not only be a very rich man but he would secure a place for himself in EVE history.

This is why I took this as the basis for my initial examination of this offering. I am not excluding other motives and outcomes but this one is the one that made for the most interesting analysis.

RAW23
Posted - 2011.05.02 11:28:00 - [127]
 

Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
2) perpetuity. If perpetuity comes to an end we'll re-evaluate. pretty sure I mentioned this in the original posts.



Actually, your OP gives both 'perpetuity' and 'the foreseeable future', which need not be the same things.
Quote:

I plan to run this in perpetuity. Like most RL corps I plan to run this for "the foreseeable future." I don't have any wind down or transfer plans because I'm not planning either. If/when I decide to make a change a public discussion will commence.



Essentially, what you say is you currently have no plans to stop running the business but this may change. However, you are unwilling to put in place any procedures for the eventuality that this does change. Given the history of businesses in EVE, however, the likelihood of you closing this down at some point seems much greater than the likelihood of running it forever. You also make no commitment to run it in perpetuity, so your statement amounts to nothing more than 'I might and I might not'. Given that you admit the possibility of not running it indefinitely, it is strange that you are unwilling to address the issues that this possibility raises. Promising to have a 'public discussion' at the time is really quite valueless as it commits you to nothing. And having seen how you respond to public discussion in this thread I can't see why any investor should have any confidence that you won't act in a purely arbitrary fashion.

Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Originally by: gnomer
Interesting approach to answering questions. Ones you don't like you ignore or divert, or accues people of trolling.


yes.


Arrangements for shutting down are important because in many circumstances they will dictate the actual returns people receive. Since you have given no commitment to return investors' isk if you do close down, depsite being invited to make such a commitment, one can only conclude that a rational investment decision must assume that you will not.

This being the case, good returns for investors are almost entirely predicated on you selling the business for something close to your 1 trillion isk valuation. If the business is not sold, the actual returns on closing will be something like the following, figures given for each full year of dividends, assuming these stay constant.

1 year of operation = 58% loss or -4.8% monthly return
2 years of operation = 16% loss or -0.66% monthly return
3 years of operation = 26% profit or 0.72% monthly return
4 years of operation = 68% profit or 1.41% monthly return
5 years of operation = 110% profit or 1.81% monthly return
6 years of operation = 152% profit or 2.11% monthly return

With no guarantee of capital being returned at closing it will take 6 years just to get an average return of 2% per month. Only if the business is sold for at least 1 trillion isk (a figure that has not really been justified as a valuation) will the returns actually equal those mentioned in the OP. Or, you could, of course, guarantee to repay the capital in the event of closure.

Blueprint Seller
Posted - 2011.05.02 11:45:00 - [128]
 

Originally by: RAW23
This being the case, good returns for investors are almost entirely predicated on you selling the business for something close to your 1 trillion isk valuation.

That depends on what you consider to be good returns.

In my view good returns for long term investors are almost entirely predicated on Edwin selling the business for considerably more than the 1t isk valuation.

For short term investors good returns can be gained by selling the shares at a premium. This outcome is equally predicated on the belief that Edwin will sell the business for considerably more than the 1t isk valuation.

This is why I was left cold by the lack of available figures. Without them a lucrative sale seems unlikely.

I do not believe that simply delivering escalating dividends will be sufficient to convince a buyer. Dividends without supporting figures will appear to be cooked.

Edwin Rothbard
Interstellar Arbitrage
Posted - 2011.05.02 13:24:00 - [129]
 

Originally by: Blueprint Seller
If Edwin sells some shares at 100m per share then following one method of valuation his business is worth:

100m x 10,000 shares = 1,000,000m

If the secondary market begins to trade those shares at a premium then using the same method of valuation his business is worth:

1,000,000m + ( premium x 10,000)

If Edwin wishes to sell his operation on to a new owner then such a valuation will be a viable starting point for price negotiatons.

He will get less than the final valuation for this set of shares but it is worth it in the longer term.

Debate on if this method of valuation is valid is a seperate topic. Even if you believe that method to be totally wrong it still gives Edwin an additional position to negotiate from.

If Edwin was to sell on this business for 1.5t isk in six months time he would not only be a very rich man but he would secure a place for himself in EVE history.

This is why I took this as the basis for my initial examination of this offering. I am not excluding other motives and outcomes but this one is the one that made for the most interesting analysis.


Exactly! Bravo! I was beginning to think MD was full of nothing but droopy-eyed armless children. I'm happy to see someone finally thinking beyond the typical reasons people in MD raise money: because they are broke or they want to scam.

Moreover, this offering increases my net worth by 750b isk. This is one of the primary reasons very successful privately held companies go public. They do not need your cash, the shareholders want to increase their net worth in exchange for sharing the fruits of their successful operation.

Further still, this offering increases Zeeawk's net worth by 250b isk. I told him when we started the casino that he would make billions. In all probability he would make 10s of billions. I also stated he could make hundreds of billions. I'm fullfilling that promise.

In before "LOL OMG 20b isn't 750B LOL." Bill Gates and Warren Buffett do not have billions in cash. They never had. What they own are millions of shares of stock in their own companies worth billions of dollars. I'm doing the same. When Mr.Gates wants another red Ferrari he can sell a few shares of MS stock. Now when I want to buy a red titan I can sell some shares of casino stock.

You are absolutely correct in that I want the secondary market to price the shares. I believe I have valued the company low. This will directly benefit those who buy shares early. If the secondary market prices the shares at 110m each then each investor instantly increases the value of their casino holdings by 10% while continuing to enjoy weekly dividends. This has the ancillary benefit of increasing the value of my shares by 10%. This is a win/win for both me and the other shareholders.

The best part is, I don't have to sell the casino to enjoy the increase in share valuation just like Mr. Buffett doesn't have to sell all his BH class A shares to enjoy their increasing stock price. If I decide to sell 10 shares later and they've been exchanging at 110m each then I should be able to sell mine at 110m.

To your other point. I don't have any plans to sell the casino. If I did sell the casino the other shareholders still benefit. Say that someone offered me 1.5T isk and I accepted. I would then institute a buyback of all the shares at the 1.5T isk valuation. This means each redeemed share would be worth 150m isk up from the 100m IPO price. Once again ALL of the shareholders benefit from the success.

Edwin Rothbard
Interstellar Arbitrage
Posted - 2011.05.02 13:27:00 - [130]
 

Originally by: Blueprint Seller
That depends on what you consider to be good returns.

In my view good returns for long term investors are almost entirely predicated on Edwin selling the business for considerably more than the 1t isk valuation.

For short term investors good returns can be gained by selling the shares at a premium. This outcome is equally predicated on the belief that Edwin will sell the business for considerably more than the 1t isk valuation.

This is why I was left cold by the lack of available figures. Without them a lucrative sale seems unlikely.

I do not believe that simply delivering escalating dividends will be sufficient to convince a buyer. Dividends without supporting figures will appear to be cooked.

Please understand it doesn't matter what numbers I give you from the casino operations. Any of them could potentially be fabricated. Hence even if I released them it would not resolve the complaints. The only thing that can be verified without tampering would be my wallet transactions for which only the most recent two weeks are available.

My daily wallet history is listed on Eve board for the entire time the casino has been in operation. Those numbers are API veried and still people doubt them so adding 2 weeks of wallet transactions to the mix isn't going to satisfy anyone who already doubts the numbers.

I said I would publish the weekly dividends. I wanted to do this yesterday but simply ran out of time. Here's the google spreadsheet for anyone interested


dividends

Khanid Voltar
Night's Dawn Investment Fund
Posted - 2011.05.02 13:34:00 - [131]
 

Originally by: Edwin Rothbard

[limegreen]Exactly! Bravo! I was beginning to think MD was full of nothing but droopy-eyed armless children.


That's ironic, because your behaviour in this thread for the most part has been nothing but childish yourself.

1. Name calling
2. Ignoring valid questions
3. Demanding people trust you 'just because' you say so.

Feel free to send my bill back, because I for one can't be bothered to put up with your pathetic posturing.

It's quite amazing how much respect you have lost from me over the course of this thread.

Edwin Rothbard
Interstellar Arbitrage
Posted - 2011.05.02 13:44:00 - [132]
 

Originally by: Khanid Voltar
Feel free to send my bill back...


sent!

Khanid Voltar
Night's Dawn Investment Fund
Posted - 2011.05.02 13:48:00 - [133]
 

Received.

Myra2007
Millstone Industries
Posted - 2011.05.02 14:09:00 - [134]
 

We all know the world is coming to an end in 2012. However it was never quite clear how its going to happen:
Edwin Rothbard's ego will force the sun to orbit it thereby completely destroying our galaxy as we know it. You have been warned.

Gatan Hahran
Posted - 2011.05.02 14:10:00 - [135]
 

WTB shares 101m isk each

Blueprint Seller
Posted - 2011.05.02 15:16:00 - [136]
 

Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
Please understand it doesn't matter what numbers I give you from the casino operations. Any of them could potentially be fabricated. Hence even if I released them it would not resolve the complaints. The only thing that can be verified without tampering would be my wallet transactions for which only the most recent two weeks are available.

My daily wallet history is listed on Eve board for the entire time the casino has been in operation. Those numbers are API veried and still people doubt them so adding 2 weeks of wallet transactions to the mix isn't going to satisfy anyone who already doubts the numbers.

You keep telling me that the figures I am asking for are of no use to me. I disagree.

If you give me the figures then I can look at them from two perspectives.

I can first treat them as genuine and assess whether they suggest your casino is well run and has a healthy future. If they do not support that then it really does not matter if they are fabricated or not because if even your fabricated figures do not show a good business then I might as well assume that your genuine figures are no better. Fabricating good figures does at least require the understanding of what good figures are which is a step ahead of what many EVE players are capable of. If your figures are good then regardless of whether they are fabricated or genuine you have at least crossed the first fence.

I can then treat them as suspect and assess whether there are any elements of the figures that support the conclusion that they are fabricated. Perfectly fabricating good figures is an even more difficult challenge for the average person.

If we come to the conclusion that your figures show a good business and there are no tell tale signs of ham fisted fabrication then we would at least be a thousand miles closer to our destination than at present.

I am simply asking for the oppertunity to make my own assesment of the data that exists. I am not asking for data that does not exist. I am not asking for the data to prove things it cannot. I am purely concerned with what is possible with what is available.

In the longer term you need to make your API available to a number of independent auditors so that your future figures can be authenticated on an ongoing basis. Then this question of doubt that you insist on wielding as a defence can be reduced to a more tolerable level.

I undestand that to many this level of book keeping and auditing may seem silly in a computer game but I would point to the fact that you wish to emulate a powerhouse businessman while running a large and massively profitable enterprise. That is not a trivial aspiration and some level of book keeping and auditing even at the amateurish standard that can be expected within a computer game is not an unreasonable requirement.

Unfortunately due to your handling of this discussion so far you have promoted greater concerns than the existinence, content and authenticity of your figures.

Liberty Eternal
Posted - 2011.05.02 15:16:00 - [137]
 

So now the plan is revealed. Edwin, I did wonder why you showed up on MD and started running little trade bonds and auctioning debt you didn't need. Your plan is to sell your casino for as much as you can get.

I'm not 100% sure this is a scam yet - after all you did manage to make 100 billion isk on your own and that deserves some respect.

Maybe you're a man of vision - but your offering so far is pretty awful and is over-valued.

Khanid Voltar
Night's Dawn Investment Fund
Posted - 2011.05.02 15:38:00 - [138]
 

Edited by: Khanid Voltar on 02/05/2011 15:41:33
Post 125 still shows me as an investor. Please correct.

I think Edwin has shown a complete lack of professionalism and class in this thread in the way he has responded to legitimate questions.

It is for that reason I do not think he is scamming, because no scammer would ever act in the way he has in the thread.

Just because someone asks a question you don't like Edwin, doesn't make them a troll. In effect you seem to be saying:

'Don't you know who I am? I'm Edwin Rothbard, I've been running a make believe Casino for FOUR WHOLE MONTHS'

Big deal.

edit - corrections

Zeeawk
Posted - 2011.05.02 17:13:00 - [139]
 

Originally by: Liberty Eternal

So now the plan is revealed. Edwin, I did wonder why you showed up on MD and started running little trade bonds and auctioning debt you didn't need. Your plan is to sell your casino for as much as you can get.

O'rlly? Pretty sure above he said his plan was to NOT sell the casino. Even if it was, whats wrong with that? Would you complain if someone wanted to sell a BPO?

I'm not 100% sure this is a scam yet - after all you did manage to make 100 billion isk on your own and that deserves some respect.
Why not just say I still think this is a scam?

Maybe you're a man of vision - but your offering so far is pretty awful and is over-valued.

The only thing thats awful is going to be how those who miss out feel when dividends go out.




Syds Sinclair
Posted - 2011.05.02 17:20:00 - [140]
 

Originally by: Blueprint Seller
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
..No, you can't look at my figures..

..I want to look at your figures!..


..Blueprint Seller, are you in any financial position to even think about buying the casino? Any reputation position to get a loan to buy the casino?

Edwin Rothbard
Interstellar Arbitrage
Posted - 2011.05.02 17:42:00 - [141]
 

There are currently 24 pilots who have sent money for shares. 14.6b isk in shares have been paid for. 5.4b shares have not. Three of the investors who've already purchased the maximum number of shares have asked repeatedly to purchase the remainder of the outstanding shares.

It appears to me there are two groups of people here: ones who want to invest and make money and others who just want to troll with no intentions of investing. I'm mentally exhausted from dealing with the trolls. I've chatted in game with a number of the people who have already purchased shares and they are for removing the cap.

Thus if anyone who has already purchased the maximum numbers of shares would like to buy more you may now do so. If other smaller investors show up before saturday I will honor the commitment to let them purchase shares. If this kicks me over the 20b mark by a little bit so be it.

If anyone who has already purchased shares is not comfortable with the 10 share cap being removed early you may return your shares to me for a full refund until saturday. If you decide that you would like to return your shares please contact me first in game before sending them.

I will send shares in game shortly. If anyone who has previously expressed interesting in buying more than 10 is still interested now's your chance!

If any investors and/or potential investors has further questions or concerns here are the ways to reach me:
1) eve mail me in game
2) start a convo with me in game
3) stop by the "Roth IR" channel. This is the Investor Relations channel and all investors are welcome to hang out here.
4) come chat with me on our public TS3 server. I'll gladly send you TS details in game.

Trolling posts here will go unanswered.

Gatan Hahran
Posted - 2011.05.02 17:45:00 - [142]
 

sent money for remaining shares

Moto Akimoto
Posted - 2011.05.02 17:47:00 - [143]
 

Gatan, wait! I would like to buy another 10 shares wtf! LOL

Wyke Mossari
Gallente
Posted - 2011.05.02 18:08:00 - [144]
 

Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 02/05/2011 18:11:43
Still going on I expected this to be well buried by now. Lets set aside my opinion that Casinos and wormhole sales are always scams and just looks at the evidence.

Investors get nothing for their investment except for a empty promises. Edwin Rothbard admits he intends to sell his casino again after taking it public through this offering. Selling the same asset multiple times is one of the oldest scams in the book.

The op's posting history show clear signs of narcissistic personality disorder, (grandiose sense of self-importance,believes he is "special", claims association with high-status individuals, unreasonable sense of entitlement, arrogant, envious and paranoia); traits common to most scammers.

The eve-board character links are security theatre designed to give the appearance of probity while delivering nothing; very reminiscent of a previous scammer who vowed to return and scam again bigger. The eve-board links reveal worthless unskilled alts, one of which is rather strangely called "Sub Account B". The eve-board links omit at least one alt linked to this venture, which means there is at least one more undisclosed account, since the two disclosed account are full.

The Edwin Rothbard character is four years and five months old, never posted on the forums once in the first four years, then suddenly four month ago starts grinding forum rep (1), (2), (3), which despite claimed inexperience demonstrate a rather remarkable knowledge regarding grinding rep and IPOs.

Need I go on? I turned all this up in 15 mins from public sources like Eve search.

velinqangi
Posted - 2011.05.02 18:10:00 - [145]
 

Ill grab another 5 shares, if moneybags hasnt snapped em all up yet! :) Iskies sent

Zeeawk
Posted - 2011.05.02 18:45:00 - [146]
 

Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 02/05/2011 18:11:43

Need I go on? I turned all this up in 15 mins from public sources like Eve search.



Turned what up?
Edwin already stated in his OP that those characters aren't skilled.
Edwin never said he was going to sell the casino. Perhaps sell more shares but not the entire casino.

Your reading comprehension is as bad as your internet space sleuthing.

Blueprint Seller
Posted - 2011.05.02 18:48:00 - [147]
 

Originally by: Syds Sinclair
Originally by: Blueprint Seller
Originally by: Edwin Rothbard
..No, you can't look at my figures..

..I want to look at your figures!..


..Blueprint Seller, are you in any financial position to even think about buying the casino? Any reputation position to get a loan to buy the casino?

My line of questioning was more to do with how saleable the casino is in general. It is far too early for me to have considered actually buying it.

I do not see why my financial circumstances are particularly relevant to this discussion but I will answer your questions briefly.

Yes. I am in a financial position to consider a purchase such as this.

No. I could not get a loan on that scale based on reputation. I think far too many people in this forum use reputation in place of security. If I wish to get a loan for this or any other reason I would provide collateral.

There are far too few things for a wealthy eve player to invest in on this scale. How many sizeable businesses have you seen traded in EVE? One stop research springs to mind but even that was fairly small. It is almost a foreign concept. I find I generally have to approach business owners to suggest the idea and many of them had not even considered the possibility. It is certainly something I would like to see more of.

Bad Bobby
The Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
HYDRA RELOADED
Posted - 2011.05.02 18:58:00 - [148]
 

Originally by: Wyke Mossari
suddenly four month ago starts grinding forum rep (1), (2), (3), which despite claimed inexperience demonstrate a rather remarkable knowledge regarding grinding rep and IPOs.
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
very reminiscent of a previous scammer who vowed to return and scam again bigger.

And I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for you meddling kids!

Or do you mean Riethe? It involves web sites so to be honest it is far more likely to be Riethe than me.

Syds Sinclair
Posted - 2011.05.02 19:05:00 - [149]
 

Edited by: Syds Sinclair on 02/05/2011 19:05:04
..Get your pitch forks boys, it's time for a good ole' witch hunt!

REITHE REITHE REITHE!!

AssassinationsdoneWrong
DeckardsDisciples
Posted - 2011.05.02 21:40:00 - [150]
 

Sorry I couldn't have gotten to the post earlier Ed.

Sorry I couldn't have got in on the buy (which I would have done in a heartbeat!)

Sorry I couldn't have explained how well we have come to know each other in RL and in EvE and have shot down trollers who probably don't have the money to invest. (Always loved the words market speculators ...... all they do is speculate! Maybe Market Pontificators should be a new turn of phrase!)

Sorry I couldn't have described you and Zee as the most honest people I know in EvE.

BY THE WAY TROLLERS. JUST OUT OF CURIOSITY HOW MANY OF YOU HAVE ASKED ALL OF THESE QUESTIONS PREVIOUSLY, BEEN SATISFIED WITH THE ANSWERS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO PURCHASE??

Never have I seen this guy lose his cool the way he has today. Not because he was always that way (in fact he is the calmest most stoic guy I know) but purely based upon such inane, and downright bloody-minded cross questioning which he knew would have just opened the door to 10 more avenues per question because you never had any intention of purchasing in the first place!!

If it was me I would have pulled the whole plan and refunded all investors because they demonstrated insight, wisdom and sound judgement, but he's a level above and here he is sticking to it and honoring the plan he originally conceived. Hats off to you mate.


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