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blankseplocked Dedicated to Dr. Eyjólfur Guđmundsson: Market Poetry
 
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Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari
Sane Industries Inc.
Posted - 2011.04.28 00:29:00 - [91]
 

Edited by: Rakshasa Taisab on 28/04/2011 00:37:54
12 days is enough? That's your own point of view and in no way invalidates the buy and hold recommendation.

Actually, considering the anomaly spawn change it isn't unreasonable to think that quite a few entities, renters and such, are pulling out of 0.0 and thus getting rid of any ice products they've bought. Not to mention the botting bans go in cycles and the RMT bots won't be stopping after the 14 day ban, so when does the next appreciation start is dependent on when CCP Sreeg get around to banning them.

The above is information the graphs cannot in any way express at the time when they happened, so it becomes a homeopathic coin-toss if they work in favor or against your predictions.

Also the USDEUR part is not much impressive considering EVERYBODY knows that the USD is weakening and EUR despite the fiscal crisis of some member nations is holding up. I do however have to commend you on your reduced verbiage in the past few posts.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.04.28 07:14:00 - [92]
 

Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab

12 days is enough? That's your own point of view and in no way invalidates the buy and hold recommendation.



This is my point of view: I want my ISK to work and for reward:risk to be here.

Investing in this way is risky, much more than 0.01 ISKing. Therefore the reward has to be high.
Now, such a bulky market is rare to move by 8% increments all the time, so how much % are you ready to bet it'll rise in 2 weeks?

Does it beat a bond on MD performance and by large? I am getting 7.5% a month off one of them.


Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab

The above is information the graphs cannot in any way express at the time when they happened



No, graphs represent price and price is a real time indicator of what's happening right now.
Price discounts present events and also the collective expectation of what important is going to happen next.
The latter is what creates the speculative bubbles.

Now, a better trader has to spot those bubbles and use them while the others fall in them.


Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab

Also the USDEUR part is not much impressive considering EVERYBODY knows that the USD is weakening and EUR despite the fiscal crisis of some member nations is holding up



3-5 minutes scalping is one of the most difficult trading that exist. The USD, weakening or not, barely matters at these time frames, in fact these trades were mostly shorting against the euro. The loser was exactly a buy of Euro, figures.
Also, scam "get rich NOW" trading systems promise 500 pips a month like it's the Nirvana.
I wish with all my heart I could consistently make 25 a day, I'd subscribe that with my blood.

Ze'ev Sinraali
Ataraxia Pharmacies
Posted - 2011.04.28 08:18:00 - [93]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

Finally, I finally found a screenshot that could show you how actual, physical orders (no voodoo crap) translate in support and resistance lines on a graph.

If you check this screenshot out, you'll see two panes: the first are the sitting orders (S&P futures contracts). Each column represents a "tick" of 30 minutes of time.
Despite the daunting looks, each column is nothing different than looking at EvE's orders (book) in any market window. Imagine these numbers were units of Nocxium instead of S&P contracts.

The right pane shows the distribution of those orders. Do you see how it clearly forms a sort of Gaussian showing how most orders clump around that big center "POC" labelled hystogram?
Now, on a technical analysis chart, that "POC" hystogram is exactly an horizontal support line. If you check the left pane again, you'll see how colums "sit" on a curve-line and that line held for more than 3 hours, which is hugely plenty to make profits.
These "POC" hystograms are statistically frequent on round figure numbers, at known past levels of support and resistance, at psychological numbers (years past the Twin Towers attack some markets kept bouncing when they reached the same prices they had during 2001-09-11) and also on Fibonacci numbers (weaker than the others).



This bit makes me curious to know, why even pay attention to round or fibonacci or historical numbers? Unless I'm missing something, just looking at where large amounts of orders are clustered seems to have all the same explanatory power in trying to figure out where the market will end up. Looking at where they tend to cluster could be an interesting study if you like behavioral economics, but in practical terms, so what? Just watch the numbers that are already there.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.04.28 12:05:00 - [94]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 28/04/2011 12:10:45
Originally by: Ze'ev Sinraali
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

Finally, I finally found a screenshot that could show you how actual, physical orders (no voodoo crap) translate in support and resistance lines on a graph.

If you check this screenshot out, you'll see two panes: the first are the sitting orders (S&P futures contracts). Each column represents a "tick" of 30 minutes of time.
Despite the daunting looks, each column is nothing different than looking at EvE's orders (book) in any market window. Imagine these numbers were units of Nocxium instead of S&P contracts.

The right pane shows the distribution of those orders. Do you see how it clearly forms a sort of Gaussian showing how most orders clump around that big center "POC" labelled hystogram?
Now, on a technical analysis chart, that "POC" hystogram is exactly an horizontal support line. If you check the left pane again, you'll see how colums "sit" on a curve-line and that line held for more than 3 hours, which is hugely plenty to make profits.
These "POC" hystograms are statistically frequent on round figure numbers, at known past levels of support and resistance, at psychological numbers (years past the Twin Towers attack some markets kept bouncing when they reached the same prices they had during 2001-09-11) and also on Fibonacci numbers (weaker than the others).



This bit makes me curious to know, why even pay attention to round or fibonacci or historical numbers? Unless I'm missing something, just looking at where large amounts of orders are clustered seems to have all the same explanatory power in trying to figure out where the market will end up. Looking at where they tend to cluster could be an interesting study if you like behavioral economics, but in practical terms, so what? Just watch the numbers that are already there.


You *also* want to look at the orders cluster. In RL markets, though, it's not so easily predictable basing on them.
First of all the orders you see there don't include market orders, market orders are widely used and since they are instant, you can't look at them anywhere.

Then, depending on the market, you have:

- markets that don't give a book at all. IE the majority of MM Forex brokers won't.
- markets that may only show a limited number of book levels, you are shortsigthed by design so you can't study what's ahead.
- most of all, you may have "all or none" orders. These are a special kind of HUGE orders and they resemble the EvE "minimum quantity orders". Unlike EvE orders, though, the RL trader / broker is authorized to hide most of the required quantity. So you may be seeing 100 contract orders while in reality there are 10000. These orders are also called "iceberg orders" and can really destroy your day.

Therefore, like most of what traders use, this orders view is just one of an the immense toolset a trader has to use and know.

What beats those iceberg orders? Larger orders (!) and their activation form support and resistance price levels (imagine a Technetium "blocking order"), which traders "translates" into easy to see lines.

Claire Voyant
Posted - 2011.04.28 12:45:00 - [95]
 

#1 This is the only character I post with on MD. Don't attribute comments made by anyone else to me.

#2 As I read it, your best EURUSD trade of the day was less than 0.1%. That wouldn't even come close to making a profit with Eve's sales tax, broker's fees, wider bid/ask spreads, and non-margin account trading. And you were doing short sales which are not even possible in Eve. How does this help your case that buy and hold doesn't work in Eve?

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.04.28 13:16:00 - [96]
 

Originally by: Claire Voyant
#1 This is the only character I post with on MD. Don't attribute comments made by anyone else to me.

#2 As I read it, your best EURUSD trade of the day was less than 0.1%. That wouldn't even come close to making a profit with Eve's sales tax, broker's fees, wider bid/ask spreads, and non-margin account trading. And you were doing short sales which are not even possible in Eve. How does this help your case that buy and hold doesn't work in Eve?


#1 I did not pretend you are the other guy, but you chose to harp on me following the thread groupthink.

#2 A mammoth profitable trade in these days (it's not 2006 any more) is 80-100 pips (plus runners but they are not easy to manage) and it has to be setup 3-4 days in advance and 1000000000000000 perfect conditions to align before pulling the trigger. An example would be spotting EURUSD peak right before it crashes and enter short.

Said trade would still be on the same order of magnitude as mine.

Luckily enough RL is not totally equal to EvE.
I reported the net gain, the RL the cost for doing each trade was 1.8 pips (pips = ticks in Forex jargon). IE on a 5 pips scalp (5 pips is quite large for a scalp so it's profitable!) I invested 6.8 pips and the cost vs investment is about 26.5%. Ah, I also paid interests to the broker for the duration of each trade (they are recorded, shown and debited).

Now, does it seem expensive enough compared to EvE?

Claire Voyant
Posted - 2011.04.28 13:37:00 - [97]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Now, does it seem expensive enough compared to EvE?

No, you missed my point. Of course you want to keep the proportional cost of the transaction low no matter where you are trading. My point was that you need a 4-5% move in Eve to even begin to think about making a profitable trade. That translates into something like a 600 pip trade in EURUSD. In my mind, that argues for being more patient both before making the trade and before closing out the trade in Eve. So isn't your own example making the case for buy-and-hold in Eve?

Nemo deBlanc
Posted - 2011.04.28 14:29:00 - [98]
 

VV, very interesting thread. Especially the bits pertaining to Forex. I can honestly say you're the first person I've seen online or in person that might actually be making money on it.

Have you turned an overall profit trading Forex? If so...would you mind linking me to some resources where I could learn about all this stuff? I know you've dropped links scattered throughout your two large threads, but at the time I saw them, I couldn't bookmark them for later viewing.

Hell, even if I don't dabble in Forex, I could try my hand at the Eve market. Nothing to really lose.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.04.28 17:33:00 - [99]
 

Originally by: Claire Voyant

No, you missed my point. Of course you want to keep the proportional cost of the transaction low no matter where you are trading. My point was that you need a 4-5% move in Eve to even begin to think about making a profitable trade. That translates into something like a 600 pip trade in EURUSD. In my mind, that argues for being more patient both before making the trade and before closing out the trade in Eve. So isn't your own example making the case for buy-and-hold in Eve?



I'd really love to discuss things if you weren't so confrontational.
Couldn't you just say something like: "I think you misunderstood my point"?

Anyway, I have two answers:

1) EvE traders don't have leveraged equity. I am currently using from 3:1 to 10:1 and this translates into quicker trades.

2) Despite this, buy and hold in EvE is still not my preferred way, probably because of my RL trading background.

In RL trading you do NOT want to stay in the market. Every second in the market may be your ruin, so you either plan everything in advance or you scalp with little stop loss.
In EvE you only have a negative effect if you buy something that tanks forever. Plus, in any case, making money is so easy that losing some in a trade won't kill you.
Still, buy and hold is something to do in some stocks (they come with low leverage as well) when they are at a minimum price and nowhere else.

Money is an instrument, it has to work, to live. In a zero sum game, you are trading your liquidity for value.
If you don't get the value, why give away the liquidity for free?

Therefore my keyword is stay agile, zoom in, take profit, get out.

Example: if I traded isotopes (I produce them so I don't have the problem at finding a good trade entry) I'd have taken advantage of my charting service to get an actually accurate picture of the market. In this case the OP chart.

With my chart I'd have noticed how Dec 2010 - Feb 20 2010 formed the typical market bottom W shaped plateau.
Plateaus one day ALL break out upwards, then price returns down to retest the pre-break out level and you setup a limit order on that level.
The OP chart shows such retest Jan 30 (the stabby red candle) at about 240 ISK pu.
Once bought, it's not "buy and hold". It's "buy till you get the signal to bugger off".
In this case, price ascended for a long time.
Once price went up to the same level it had before tanking (ie same price of first day shown on chart) I'd look for strong resistance.

I have resistance at 300 plus 300 is a round number. Plus it was a Fibonacci level but I could not know that back at the time.
In fact at 300, the candlestick shows a fierce battle, the upper "wick" (shadow in RL trading jargon) is long, a sign that sellers gave out their best.
I'd have secured a partial profit there, since I make more ice anyway.
Now, this is not buy and hold. It's buy until the market tells you to pay attention to a potential reversal.

Buying stock again is not a problem, the broker fee is of no issue since you buy low enough to resell for a profit anyway. (I.e. I instantly buy minerals off sell orders, when I know 2 days later price has covered the broker fee for me).

If the market turned at 300, I'd have had no problem, no prayer to tell to the evil EvE gods, no huge overpriced stock on my shoulders.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.04.28 17:37:00 - [100]
 

A trade to really profit of, was at beginning of April. The triangle following the mass Hulkageddon speculation bubble burst was too easy to spot to ignore. After triangles, price is so compressed that explodes, often triangles explosion direction is a continuation of the prior trend. In our case it's a rising trend.
So, nice purchase and we are in the market again. BOOM price goes up to 380, a 19% profit in 3 days. This is *Trading*.
A buy and hold guy would have kept from December 2010 to April 2011. His absolute gain is higher but his capital is tied for months.

I do understand the buy and hold people though, they are players, not traders and in RL they have probably been convinced that holding stock for years is the best thing ever.


Originally by: Nemo deBlanc

VV, very interesting thread. Especially the bits pertaining to Forex. I can honestly say you're the first person I've seen online or in person that might actually be making money on it.



There are a good number who are profitable but they don't have fantastic infomercial web sites. They have nothing to sell.
Actually some give their tecniques away (they are all similar anyway: price action and more price action), sadly well knowing that giving away a winning strategy does NOTHING to the so called "consistent losers" anyway.
Most I know don't have decent web sites at all.

I.e. this website Seaview Capital is quite plain and "dated", yet one of their CTA fund managers buys and sells his USD 3M portfolio exclusively using TA and price action.
How do I know? I learned from his blog some ropes.


Originally by: Nemo deBlanc

If so...would you mind linking me to some resources where I could learn about all this stuff? I know you've dropped links scattered throughout your two large threads, but at the time I saw them, I couldn't bookmark them for later viewing



I will setup more pages of my blog / website to that end. I don't want to intrude in the EvE forums more than I have already done.
Also, before seeking some Holy Grail tecniques (they don't exist) you must read the books I reviewed here Linkage.
It's a whole two books (3 if you also want to buy the second off Douglas) that are simply the difference between having no hope or having hope to ever make profits.

Remember: the traders win ONLY on competitors with less information. You would not believe how many lack even the basic fundamental knowledge given in those books.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.04.28 20:11:00 - [101]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 28/04/2011 20:30:22
Another 2 examples for Nemo deBlanc of website where they teach the good stuff.

You will easily notice the staggering difference between them and the scam / lemon sites.

The scammy ones are the shiny, well polished, full of videos, daily updated with professional background jingles, the guy repeats 1000 times he's a real trader etc. etc.. Other sign: free webminars left and right that usually get *almost* to the point but then the guy in the video tells you that you must purchase the full thing to know further. Other sign: the ever present, ever different, ever graphically impressive proprietary Indicator Of Holy Truth. They also, always recruit affiliates and publish payware e-books. Apparently their trading needs those crutches...

Now here is the example of two web sites that teach infinitely good stuff:

Phillip Nel's fan website

Ancient, outdated, just primitive. And totally free. And contents count.
Ah, you'll notice how the trading method I exposed in my Technical Analysis thread is strikingly similar to this. It's not a coincidence, what works is just a limited number of ways.


Another website

The difference between this site and infomercial sites?
Stock looks, and a BIG message in the front page: Leave This Website Now !

Inviting, eh?

Yet if you want to find the pearls of knowledge, you have to get in these kinds of places.

Edit

In particular the following websites will change your life:

Babypips <===== START HERE!!!! and do the tutorial.

Vahrokh.com essential 2-3 books <==== Read these or you will fail, getting in the right mindset and knowing the market structure is WAY more important than any theory or trading system (even the best) you'll ever learn.

No brainer trades Read and learn the method.
Yes the more of these websites you read the more you'll understand why they use different words but always point to the same concepts.

Forex Factory Quick fundamentals, daily news calendar you MUST know (you must not trade 5 minutes before and after news) and most of all, one of the largest trading communities out there. Just filer out anything not about "price action". Several of the links above including the CTA fund manager I mentioned in the post above, post or posted there.

There'd be another dozen of good websites but CBA to find them.


IMPORTANT warning
Retail off-exchange forex / futures trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose all of your initial investment and be liable for additional losses. Therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of all the risks associated with forex trading and make an informed decision after consulting with your financial advisor and considering your own financial situation and objectives.

Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente
Origin.
Black Legion.
Posted - 2011.04.29 16:17:00 - [102]
 

VV, you make TA sound super hard; thank god for those links. I'm not saying it's easy, but now I can at least follow your crazy TA jargon better =).

On a related note, check your evemail, I've opened a practice account and am already in "summer school" on the babypips.com site. Also I'm up about $300 in practice account.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.04.29 18:17:00 - [103]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 29/04/2011 18:18:06
Originally by: Dethmourne Silvermane
VV, you make TA sound super hard; thank god for those links. I'm not saying it's easy, but now I can at least follow your crazy TA jargon better =).

On a related note, check your evemail, I've opened a practice account and am already in "summer school" on the babypips.com site. Also I'm up about $300 in practice account.


In trading there are two things, the sooner you "get" this the higher the probability of being profitable.

One is the method you use to trade. It's a tool and there are several that work. If you stick to those I linked you cannot take a wrong one. A tool that you just learn and use like you could use a drill, a CAD software, a screwdriver.

Now, while the harpies stick to flaming trading methods, what really matters is NOT that.

What matters is the second of the two things and that thing is you.

What anchors 95% of the traders in failure is their refusal to look inside themselves, to deal with their fears (you WILL see what I am saying once you start with real money), to open their mind to beyond the limited dominating mindset.
Once you do you will glance at the others and see they are just acting like little ants, limited in their little hive, who pretend to rationalize what cannot be rationalized: the overhelming mental superpower that a market expresses. So imprevedible but acting in a five digits precision. This is why I put links to my website to psychology of trading books of M. Douglas, they seem boring but without knowing what's written in there, you are in for the most painful run of your life. I really mean it.

Nilania Telshua
Amarr
Hedion University
Posted - 2011.04.30 19:37:00 - [104]
 

Digits dance on,
Hope raises.
Nothing but tears.

OOps misinterpreted the thread.

Tutomech
Posted - 2011.05.06 12:53:00 - [105]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

I wholeheartedly thank you.
I enjoy sharing what I learn, even if it costed me many RL $$$.
I feel I accomplished something good in life when I see someone feels he had a good time reading my stuff. It's often a compilation of dozens of web sites and books, plus ways for you to avoid the compilation of anvils in face I got while learning the practice.



I liked it this far even tho it took me half day to come this far.
Ty for posting.

Nemo deBlanc
Posted - 2011.05.06 20:49:00 - [106]
 

Thanks a lot VV. Gonna start working through that material this weekend. Cheers!

Zora
Gallente
Vector Industries
DONT PANIC.
Posted - 2011.05.08 04:13:00 - [107]
 

Threads like this really can't be found in any other game, and for that I really have to give you my compliments VV. You're putting quite some effort into sharing what you know, and I think that serves as an inspiration for others. Took me a while to get through it, but I really enjoyed it thoroughly, even the off-topic discussions (thanks to RAW for putting into words what I myself have been thinking, but could never find the right words to express it in such a concise manner).

While I remain pretty much a dumb trader in EVE, relying on my not-so-great knowledge of the market dynamics as implied by the game mechanics and political landscape, I guess I will dig deeper and read up on your other posts. It just seems like that it's a whole lot of time spent for something basically trivial. I login a few times a day, adjust orders, and make a chunk of ISK without really thinking about the "why". Most of the time I don't look at graphs for more than 5 seconds. The single most important factor for me is trade volume, which basically tells me how fast I can expect to exit the market again. Of course it has to be said sometimes I'm losing some money when a market just keeps crashing, and I'm not really the kind of person who holds unto stuff for a long time. But it's a game, so it's part of the game Rolling Eyes

Anyway, kudos to your and thanks for sharing.Wink

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.27 16:06:00 - [108]
 

Quote:

Threads like this really can't be found in any other game, and for that I really have to give you my compliments VV. You're putting quite some effort into sharing what you know, and I think that serves as an inspiration for others. Took me a while to get through it, but I really enjoyed it thoroughly, even the off-topic discussions (thanks to RAW for putting into words what I myself have been thinking, but could never find the right words to express it in such a concise manner).



I apologize for having let your feedback slip for so long.
Since it seems some people are appreciating my efforts, I decided to improve on some data feed technology I am using and to start preparing some new course in my RL technical analysis thread. It'll take some time, since I am also currently implementing a website for RL trading courses with a third party.

Cate Wolf
Caldari
Posted - 2011.05.27 16:31:00 - [109]
 

epic post :)

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.08 21:51:00 - [110]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 08/06/2011 21:52:28
An update that I feel very fitting in the thread dedicated to CCP's Economist.

Today I contacted the RL trader I am working with ATM.

While we were testing the Shared Annotations and Webinar platform, I took the opportunity to bait him.
I shared a cropped picture of Technetium and Nitrogen Isotopes graphs on the webinar desktop so he could see them from his computer.
He looked at them and said: "well, these are stocks, see the unique candles with long tails?"
Then added: "These have to be low liquidity corporations, there's a lot of gapping, bulky bars and dojis".
Finally I made him perform an analysis on Nitrogen Isotopes (the last bars were hidden) and he accurately predicted a decently profitable trade entry.


This lets me conclude 4 things:

1) The widespread assumption that EvE markets look like stocks seems to find a confirmation.
2) That my technology to create OHLC data out of EvE markets seems to work.
3) That EvE the markets are similar to RL markets enough to be tradable with the same principles.
4) That even well liquid EvE markets are harder to trade than an high liquidity stocks RL corporation.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.08 22:57:00 - [111]
 

I have been contacted in game by a person who is curious about PI markets.
He was expecially interested about possible PI commodities where some profit could be achieved.

Today I am posting an already made analysis for Biomass, VEMEX ticker BIOMS.

If anyone shows any interest, I am going to post something else tomorrow, but you have to tell.

The work is all done, all you have to do is to look at the graph and decide, if you want to.


BIOMS - Monthly - Thumbnail | Full resolution

Please visit your user settings to re-enable images.



BIOMS - Weekly - Thumbnail | Full resolution

Please visit your user settings to re-enable images.



BIOMS - Daily - Thumbnail | Full resolution

Please visit your user settings to re-enable images.



Claire Voyant
Posted - 2011.06.08 23:38:00 - [112]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Finally I made him perform an analysis on Nitrogen Isotopes (the last bars were hidden) and he accurately predicted a decently profitable trade entry.

So some random guy looking blind at a nitrogen isotopes chart can make an accurate prediction but in the year you've been doing this you have been unable to post an accurate prediction in the market you seem to follow the most.

This lets me conclude a number of things, but I'm not going to bother listing them.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.09 00:26:00 - [113]
 

Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Finally I made him perform an analysis on Nitrogen Isotopes (the last bars were hidden) and he accurately predicted a decently profitable trade entry.

So some random guy looking blind at a nitrogen isotopes chart can make an accurate prediction but in the year you've been doing this you have been unable to post an accurate prediction in the market you seem to follow the most.

This lets me conclude a number of things, but I'm not going to bother listing them.


I wish it was a year, I know about this new tecnique since May.

Plus, I am never going to post an analysis regarding a market I am invested into at that time. Therefore you will never see a "BUY NAO!" post off me, only a "I took profit here" or possibly a warning for others not to blindly buy.

The fact you missed this obvious "detail" lets me conclude a number of things as well.

Jerry Pepridge
Posted - 2011.06.09 00:32:00 - [114]
 

pretty sure ppl gave up trolling VV about walls of market text. i certainly have, he bites most of the time, but with much much walls of text.

also Hi VV long time no troll! Razz


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