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blankseplocked Debunking myths: there is no inflation in EVE
 
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Onkadis
Posted - 2011.04.06 16:34:00 - [31]
 

Originally by: Misaki Yuuko
Originally by: Onkadis
I expect we'll continue to see rises in PLEX market. I think CCP is hoping we will.


Completlly agree, this is good for CCP, it's an incentive to buy plexes and that means money for them. I see it more that way that as isk sinks, because there isn't really an ISK sink, but an ISK redistribution (which has it's utility driving up demand if that's what CCP really wants).

Also it's true people has forgot how much money did GTC cost at some points and I know because I used to fund two accounts with em. Probably they haven't played long enough to realize there isn't really inflation in this game, and I'm not even a very vet player (started playing early 2008).


Okay, so let me clarify what I mean by GTC's serving as an ISK sink.

There's a large swath of 0.0 players who make so much isk living in 0.0, they fund multiple accounts without paying a cent in subscriptions. In theory, GTCs don't make CCP anything, what they do is shift what one player would pay for a subscription to another. Are there ways of maximizing the revenue here from a CCP perspective? Probably. But I think they're savvy enough to understand the value of a stable game community.

Anyways, I would actually bet that GTCs redistribute wealth pretty effectively in 0.0 space, moving it from people who spend waay too much time in game to people who work for a living -- or the bigger threat to gaming subscriptions, that young guy who started as a college student with tonnes of time, got a job, met a girl, and successfully cloned 50% of his DNA, and not has very limited playing time to make lots of isk but he has some disposable income. In that way it acts as a sink for one player.

As I said, I simply don't think there's inflation right now. But GTCs are an effective tool at moving isk from one player to another, and to go one step further, I bet you it works as an effective method of moving isk from 0.0 to empire and particularly low-sec. So, they act as a localized sink for the section of the community making huge amounts of isk.

Cuz trust me, the first thing you do when you realize you can make enough isk to run one account is try to figure-out how to make enough isk to run a second, and a third, and a fourth. That's a pretty good isk sink on that particular power gamer.

Anyways, focus less on the isk sink/faucet part of my previous post and more on the mineral faucet and sink issue. Cuz they're obviously tied, but I think there are some good ideas in there on how to change the mineral market without throwing your average hardworking PvPer/low-sec pirate over a barrel.

Saxton Hale
Posted - 2011.04.06 16:49:00 - [32]
 

Originally by: Sonva Lat

If you were expecting bots to drive inflation I think you have a fundamental misconception about the Eve economy.

Most bots produce minerals.



Hello. Allow me to introduce you to Pirate Detection Arrays.

Greater Roadrunner
Posted - 2011.04.06 16:56:00 - [33]
 

Originally by: Misaki Yuuko

Quote:

I wonder where did you find a price graph for faction ships going all the way to "back to a year".


Yep that's true, I checked the pirate battleships and cruisers, they all were at the same level they were selling long time ago (and now they are way better because the buff they received) in contract market. The Rattlesnake i.e. is extremely cheap (less than 500 mill.), and the other are in the level they were before: (800-1100 mill.).


Excellent. Not only did you dodge the question about the price graph, but you managed to skip the important part between "long time ago" and "now" so you could get to "no inflation at all". Especially since I've bought Machariel for a friend for 700mil less than a year ago and now it's over 800+mil on the market. Just 15% increase, no big deal.

Quote:

Quote:

So you're trying to tell me that t1 and t2 ship prices are the same or lower than they were month, three months, six months ago?


I checked HAC's and recon ships for the four races, and their prices are the same that a year ago or very similar.


Because 120+mil is the same as 100mil and there is nothing in between "now" and "year ago".


Quote:

As stated in the QEN the CPI increase (2010 Q4)


So, not only do you tell me that there is no inflation based on comparison between two points of time (end of Q4 2009 and end of Q4 2010), but you do it at the end of Q1 2011.

Quote:

is due to the addition of PI and to PLEXes, but the rest is not bad


"Great, since CPI is up and it doesn't fit my theory I'll just ignore certain parts of it."
Also you've skipped the important part after PLEX-driven CPI increase.

Avon
Caldari
Versatech Co.
Raiden.
Posted - 2011.04.06 17:09:00 - [34]
 

Originally by: Onkadis

When I first became aware of the GTC market the cost of a 30 GTC in the forum auction 450-500 mil -- and people tell me that was a drop from the previous market price of around 650-700 mil.



That used to be the price of 90day GTCs.

Mashie Saldana
Minmatar
Veto Corp
Posted - 2011.04.06 17:45:00 - [35]
 

Originally by: Avon
Originally by: Onkadis

When I first became aware of the GTC market the cost of a 30 GTC in the forum auction 450-500 mil -- and people tell me that was a drop from the previous market price of around 650-700 mil.



That used to be the price of 90day GTCs.


I remember the 30day GTCs costing 100-115m.

Avon
Caldari
Versatech Co.
Raiden.
Posted - 2011.04.06 17:50:00 - [36]
 

Originally by: Mashie Saldana
Originally by: Avon
Originally by: Onkadis

When I first became aware of the GTC market the cost of a 30 GTC in the forum auction 450-500 mil -- and people tell me that was a drop from the previous market price of around 650-700 mil.



That used to be the price of 90day GTCs.


I remember the 30day GTCs costing 100-115m.


Yeah, and I remember when that seemed like a lot of isk.
Cool

Sig Sour
Posted - 2011.04.06 18:08:00 - [37]
 

Originally by: Misaki Yuuko
(I couldn't download the QEN for some off reason, but I guess it will be the same data as in Fanfest presentation)

So... Your memory > database info?

Some people....Rolling Eyes

Misaki Yuuko
Caldari
Posted - 2011.04.06 18:14:00 - [38]
 

Originally by: Greater Roadrunner
Excellent. Not only did you dodge the question about the price graph, but you managed to skip the important part between "long time ago" and "now" so you could get to "no inflation at all". Especially since I've bought Machariel for a friend for 700mil less than a year ago and now it's over 800+mil on the market. Just 15% increase, no big deal.


I did agreed on you there is no graph going back to 'long time ago' unfortunately, if you care about it so much you can dig on the forums for how about they sold 'long time ago' and see there is not real difference in prices. This is absurd, Machariel used to sell at more than a bill ago 'long time ago'. What you are missing is that probably the prices being higher on these items is not bad and is intended. People can't make their mind up: either you say "but there is too much isk, people can buy anything" or you say "the price on that item is too high"; you can't say both things at the same (or maybe what you are saying is "some people has too much money, not the average player, and that's bad"; but that's not inflation and is a natural consequence of progress/investment of time in game).

Quote:
Because 120+mil is the same as 100mil and there is nothing in between "now" and "year ago".


So you're calling bullsh*t on CCP statistics Very Happy Check the T2 price index.

Quote:
So, not only do you tell me that there is no inflation based on comparison between two points of time (end of Q4 2009 and end of Q4 2010), but you do it at the end of Q1 2011.


¿Can't you read graphics? It's not between two points, it's pretty much all the time since Jan 2009 the trend is decreasing price indexes except the increase in price Q4 2010 due to PI and increasing PLEX prices which is only increase in prices in ONE item in the game. Unless we are reading different QEN editions it's pretty clear to me and anyone. Calling that inflation is non sense.

Quote:
"Great, since CPI is up and it doesn't fit my theory I'll just ignore certain parts of it."
Also you've skipped the important part after PLEX-driven CPI increase.


I haven't skipped it, 5 points increase in CPI since early 2009 (again, for you, follow the trend, I'm not comparing two points in time) it's not 'OMG INFLATION!!!' specially when there is an easy explanation (it's explained in the QEN, read it). Inflation is increasing prices in overall prices as you said, be coherent and accept there isn't inflation according to statistics or don't but stop trolling Very Happy

Originally by: Sig Sour
Originally by: Misaki Yuuko
(I couldn't download the QEN for some off reason, but I guess it will be the same data as in Fanfest presentation)

So... Your memory > database info?

Some people....Rolling Eyes


Memory? The presentation is on Youtube dude. Anyway I've put the data later when I managed to d/l it, and it just confirms there is not overall inflation, no matter how some people spins it because PLEXES are more expensive (sure that people later will cry about bots and RMT, what a joke).

Onkadis
Posted - 2011.04.06 18:19:00 - [39]
 

As much as I hate to admit it, Avon might be right(hate just cuz it's Avon). But it's actually not tremendously germane to my argument regarding PLEX costs likely continuing to going up (and CCP intervening if they go too low), and the benefits of finding mineral sinks that don't increase the isk burden disproportionately on low-income PvPers.

Corporal Punishment08
NosWaffle
Nostradamus Effect
Posted - 2011.04.06 18:25:00 - [40]
 

Prices fluctuate, there's no doubt about that. Inflation? I wouldn't go that far. Pew pew, newbs, changes in ship and module FOTMs, common desire to sell products that are in demand, these things all contribute to keeping prices and isk value relatively stable.

By the way, I was of the mindset that inflation did occur when I didn't really put any thought in to it, but reading this post, understanding what inflation is, and doing a tad bit of research has put me on the flip side. Price fluctuations, yes of course. Inflation...nah I don't buy it (no pun intended)

Kijo Rikki
Caldari
Point of No Return
Waterboard
Posted - 2011.04.06 18:31:00 - [41]
 

I am not consistently here, but every tiem I resub it seems to me prices are pretty much the same. I'm paying 30 mil base for drakes, 50 mil fully fitted on cotnract in 0.0. Seems about right from way back in 08.

Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
Posted - 2011.04.06 18:43:00 - [42]
 

Originally by: Sig Sour
So... Your memory > database info?



It's called "expectation", agreeably it is often subjective, but not so subjective that central banks ignore it. In fact they often attempt to "anchor" expectations.

Greater Roadrunner
Posted - 2011.04.06 19:21:00 - [43]
 

Originally by: Misaki Yuuko
I did agreed on you there is no graph going back to 'long time ago' ... This is absurd, Machariel used to sell at more than a bill ago 'long time ago'.

So there is no graph, but the fact that I've bought a Machariel for 748mil (just checked the contract, and lowest sale in Jita is 845) is absurd?
What if I tell you that they've used to sell for 300-350mil?

Quote:
So you're calling bullsh*t on CCP statistics Very Happy Check the T2 price index.

Oh, but I'm talking about now, not Q4 2010. Don't you think that something that is four months old is kind of old news?

Quote:
increase in price Q4 2010 due to PI and increasing PLEX prices which is only increase in prices in ONE item in the game

PI and PLEX are not "ONE item" for starters. After that point you've obviously stopped reading the QEN text since there was a bit about CPI growth even despite PLEX price going down. And then you effectively stop the clock at December 2010 and tell that nothing has changed.

Quote:
Inflation is increasing prices in overall prices as you said, be coherent and accept there isn't inflation according to statistics or don't but stop trolling Very Happy

Ok, so now that I can see Jita I should call BS on myself - I was wrong about recent month or two, there is some decline or stall for most things I can call on the spot.
<shifts blame to World of Tanks>

Here's the fun part - how do you call the fact that I have to pay more for fully fit Tempest, Apocalypse, Armageddon, Dominix, Falcon, Arazu or Drake more than a year ago? Significantly more than six months ago?

Now, I'm not a fan of "OMG WE'RE DOOMED!" crowd myself, but saying that 2009-2011 trend means that everything is fine when there are certain recent changes which kicked in at the beginning of Q1 2011 seems myopic to me.

Akhmed TDT
Posted - 2011.04.06 20:16:00 - [44]
 

Inflation? No problem. CCP can just borrow 4 billion ISK/day from Chinese bot farmers and avoid passing a budget that year.

LHA Tarawa
Posted - 2011.04.06 20:22:00 - [45]
 

I think there are far too many factors to set a real inflation level.

Insurance Exchange Rate is the primary factor setting T1 prices. The mining capacity of the carebears added to the minerals from drone compounds and other loot reprocessing is just way too high to lift prices off that floor. All they have to do is lower the insurance payout level, and we instantly get deflation of t1 ships and the asteroid minerals they are built from.




Nahkep Narmelion
Gallente
CALIMA COLLABORATIVE
Atrox Urbanis Respublique Abundatia
Posted - 2011.04.07 03:58:00 - [46]
 

Inflation is pretty much always the result of changes in the money supply. I think you are confusing price changes with inflation. And while your selection of data points does indicate a brief period of declining prices the overall trend in all indices has been upwards.

TL;DR--You're wrong Misaaki.

Hieronimus Rex
Minmatar
Infinitus Sapientia
Hav0k.
Posted - 2011.04.07 04:14:00 - [47]
 

I'd agree that PLEX/gametime price is a good estimate for inflation in the long run, but there are lots of short run swings which aren't caused by inflation. Using PLEX as an estimate, you see that PLEX were 110 million less 2.5 years ago. At 660mil now that gets you around 8% annual inflation.

Any bug that allowed the duping of ISK, or duping of items which can be sold to NPCs (do these still exist?), will cause hyperinflation. To the extent that there are any activities that approximate this (extremely high ISK generated/hour relative to other activities) will cause hyperinflation as well.


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