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Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari
Sane Industries Inc.
Posted - 2011.05.21 06:55:00 - [61]
 

Originally by: Llyandrian
I said buy and hold and time will tell.

Time has told. Prices of ice products is rising fast and lot chasing same limited stock. Too late to buy at best prices so hold, regional isotope prices breaking 600, hold for max profits as Jita do the same perhaps higher if pressure on bots keep up.

But... But... His chartography shows that 50% profit for one months wait isn't worth it!

And everyone knew nitrogen isotopes were bound to fall back to 200 ISK!

Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
Posted - 2011.05.21 07:31:00 - [62]
 

Edited by: Llyandrian on 21/05/2011 07:35:58

If supply is contracted (by banning bots) the prices will rise. This is text book instance why chartists fail. You cannot ignore fundamental causes.

Suggest Vaerah Vahrokha read Nassim Taleb before using chartist techniques in real life and she losses everything, just like Myron Scholes.


Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.21 08:37:00 - [63]
 

Quote:

I said buy and hold and time will tell.



These are not stocks.
If you have nothing to do but leave money sitting in the market (= risk) for a month, then you are assuming risk for no reward and you are providing free liquidity to someone else.


Quote:

But... But... His chartography shows that 50% profit for one months wait isn't worth it!



It's not chartography, it's money management and it is used by all kinds of traders.


Quote:

And everyone knew nitrogen isotopes were bound to fall back to 200 ISK



No, the market was flat, staying in it is stupid.
Why would you park billions at 0% interest for a month?
Even Grendell 1.7% bond would be better compared to this.


Quote:

If supply is contracted (by banning bots) the prices will rise. This is text book instance why chartists fail. You cannot ignore fundamental causes



Even a fundamental trader would not tie money for a month doing nothing.
Any kind of traders buy low and sell high. There's no "sit middle".
Furthermore are also mixing in fundamental traders with news traders.

Fundamental traders will have to see the fundamentals change before they act.

Banning bots is not a fundamental, it's a news (until, past months, it becomes a real fundamental), Technetium being turned in bottleneck is, NPC goods being turned in PI are.

A technical trader in all of this would just have sold when market flattened and *incredible to say* bought when the market started to rise again, freeing money to do something else in the meantime.


Quote:

Suggest Vaerah Vahrokha read Nassim Taleb before using chartist techniques in real life and she losses everything, just like Myron Scholes.



About Nassim Taleb I suggest you read what a stop loss is.
About Myron Scholes I suggest you read how he's the theoric of the anti-"chartist" approach. He was all about brownian motions, small market inefficiencies and so on.

He is the diametrical opposite of a technical analyst, he had all his hot faith in math and hey, HE failed with grand style and HE fell to Nassim Taleb.

Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari
Sane Industries Inc.
Posted - 2011.05.21 09:38:00 - [64]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
These are not stocks.
If you have nothing to do but leave money sitting in the market (= risk) for a month, then you are assuming risk for no reward and you are providing free liquidity to someone else.

By the time you can see the market moving up again, it's too late to buy back several days worth of trade volume off the market. Even if you estimate exactly when it would start rising with chartographical techniques, to buy back those stocks would prematurely trigger that rise leaving you with nothing.

But since, as you say, you only trade a billion here, a billion there, sure it won't matter much.

However not all of us deal in such paltry sums.

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
It's not chartography, it's money management and it is used by all kinds of traders.

Moving **** around for the sake of moving it around is called 'stupidity', not 'money management'.

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
No, the market was flat, staying in it is stupid.
Why would you park billions at 0% interest for a month?
Even Grendell 1.7% bond would be better compared to this.

1.7% - 50% = 48.3%

What an excellent investment tip... It's almost like there's a huge supply contraction that no one knew about, which lead to a price hike no one expected to come within a few weeks time. Rolling Eyes

I'm left wondering if you got some kind of OCD that demands you to ensure every single moment of time your assets have maximum positive velocity, screw the long term. (Where long term means > 3 weeks)

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Even a fundamental trader would not tie money for a month doing nothing.
Any kind of traders buy low and sell high. There's no "sit middle".
Furthermore are also mixing in fundamental traders with news traders.

Fundamental traders will have to see the fundamentals change before they act.

If being a fundamental trader means always being too late to profit off a trend, then how do they make any money?

You're saying they can't trade when it is possible to buy, and they can't buy when you say they can trade. Something here is fundamentally wrong, and I'm not saying that just to make a pun.

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Banning bots is not a fundamental, it's a news (until, past months, it becomes a real fundamental), Technetium being turned in bottleneck is, NPC goods being turned in PI are.

A technical trader in all of this would just have sold when market flattened and *incredible to say* bought when the market started to rise again, freeing money to do something else in the meantime.

Anyone who followed FF11 knew the bot banning wasn't a news item, it was fundamental change in the game. And anyone who bought enough to matter also would know they couldn't just dump, move money around and then buy again within that period of time.

Icanti
Posted - 2011.05.21 11:13:00 - [65]
 

Supplies dwindling, buy orders rising.

Isotopes are about the only thing in eve rising atm.

Buy now before its too late!!!!

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.21 12:22:00 - [66]
 

Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab

By the time you can see the market moving up again, it's too late to buy back several days worth of trade volume off the market



That has nothing to do with T.A. (the thing I keep getting flamed for).
That's your risk profile as a trader.

You feel comfortable trading on steeply rising markets in order not to miss opportunities? It's fine. By all means, that's your wallet.
I am conservative instead, therefore I want to wait for price confirmation first, then I eventually trade. If I lose trading opportunities, I don't care.
I have been teached that capital preservation is important, and I stick to it.


Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab

But since, as you say, you only trade a billion here, a billion there, sure it won't matter much.

However not all of us deal in such paltry sums.



I diversified a lot and I am not e-filty rich any way. You'd have to understand that EvE concerns me about 1% vs other RL matters and these take the priority.
What I share is just on my own initiative and scarce free time.


Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab

What an excellent investment tip... It's almost like there's a huge supply contraction that no one knew about, which lead to a price hike no one expected to come within a few weeks time.

I'm left wondering if you got some kind of OCD that demands you to ensure every single moment of time your assets have maximum positive velocity, screw the long term. (Where long term means > 3 weeks)



CCP banning bots is what inverted price, few weeks ago people were still screaming on GD about nothing being done.
After the Fanfest statements there was an expectation of supply contraction but that in my eyes does not justify parking money in there.

Face with the choice between gaining X% leaving money sitting there for a month vs gaining X% buying at the end of the flat market (and doing something else with it in the mean time) I still prefer the latter.

Again, that has nothing to do with T.A., that's my own choice and I am fine with the possibility of missing some opportunities (and missing risks).


Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab

If being a fundamental trader means always being too late to profit off a trend, then how do they make any money?



Akita T is a brilliant fundamental trader and does not arrive too late.
Akita T performs significant research like a fundamental trader is meant to do, has insight and wits where others don't. She also has significant time to spend in a game to be on top of the situation.

On my side I have minimal time to play at best, I could never compete in significant research so I just use what works with me.
T.A. trading is always worse than fundamental trading, that's the tradeoff I have to pay. It takes all of 5 minutes every 3 months to grab some income, I want to share the way to do that.
I am fairly confident there are EvE players whose playing time is as limited and that could benefit off T.A.


Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab

Anyone who followed FF11 knew the bot banning wasn't a news item, it was fundamental change in the game. And anyone who bought enough to matter also would know they couldn't just dump, move money around and then buy again within that period of time



Anyone who followed CCP knows that not always their statements turn into application. I'd like to see first, believe later. Till then, I classify it as news.
You can easily see the purchase in those double than average volume days when the buyout happened. That person(s) already dumped a chunk.
I also noticed that isotopes gapped up while the isotopes sister commodities did not follow up and kept a flat slope, this would make me very uncomfortable to just go out and buy high like some above said.

Gillaboo
Posted - 2011.05.21 19:32:00 - [67]
 

Still bullish on ice... 200K/block by end of June... easy.

Irregardless of what "techniques" you apply, or use, or support.... ONOES... all you had to do was pay attention to the Security Briefing from Fanfest. Embarassed Embarassed Crying or Very sad

Better luck next time.

Viule Sawyr
Posted - 2011.05.21 23:20:00 - [68]
 

Edited by: Viule Sawyr on 21/05/2011 23:23:12

Don't think the market will be able to bear these prices that or CCP is really going to screw the game market with the bot bans and not adding some product to the market place to ease the transition.

Right now just in isotopes it's about 150mil/month to run 1 Large Caldari POS. Think about that for a second.. That is pretty close to "half" the price of a plex just for isotopes. Now add in the rest of the needed fuel and it's become an absurd amount to run a POS over 200 mil/mth.

Now you can go with the You mine it it's free crap with PI & Ice mining and fuel your tower at no out of pocket cost. Yet I'll be dammed if I will do meaningless slave grind for fuel.

What does this mean? It means I'm selling off my last WH and pulling my POS until fuel prices become realistic. That means 1 less buyer on the market and I'm sure there are many other like myself whom have decided or are close to deciding that the price of fuel has become far too much.

CCP should have seeded the market a bit to not cause such a drastic spike, when they knew they were gonna ban thousands of bots that have held prices where they were. It's good they are banning the bots, don't get me wrong but they are also screwing everyone whom runs a POS in the process.

Gillaboo
Posted - 2011.05.21 23:35:00 - [69]
 

Edited by: Gillaboo on 21/05/2011 23:40:07
Gillaboo's Edit for grammar. I needz more beerz.

Originally by: Viule Sawyr
CCP should have seeded the market a bit to not cause such a drastic spike, when they knew they were gonna ban thousands of bots that have held prices where they were. It's good they are banning the bots, don't get me wrong but they are also screwing everyone whom runs a POS in the process.



POS were never meant to be a single person enterprise. They were meant to be a Corporate level effort, with groups of players sharing the costs...I have no doubt that 1-man POS operations are shutting down all over the place. Fly anywhere in high sec and the number of POS left abandoned is growing.

I also have no doubt that CCP *doesn't* want players to rely on bots to keep the economy over-supplied with materials of any kind, thus making those materials artificially cheap.

The proliferation of SuperCaps being a prime example of what happens at the top of the "botting foodchain". Instead of mining most of the minerals, players ran Anoms in 0.0 for ISK... which they then spent in Empire for various amounts of minerals...mined by botters.

Face it, for years the EVE economy has been supported 23.5/7 by a flood of minerals from botters.

Maybe we'll have a "Black Tuesday" and a "Great Depression"... and soup kitchens... and drifters hopping rides on empty freighters from system to system, looking for work...

"Hey buddy, can you spare a can of rocket fuel?"


Viule Sawyr
Posted - 2011.05.21 23:44:00 - [70]
 

Edited by: Viule Sawyr on 21/05/2011 23:53:59

Originally by: Gillaboo
Edited by: Gillaboo on 21/05/2011 23:38:00
Edit for grammer. I needz more beerz.

Originally by: Viule Sawyr
CCP should have seeded the market a bit to not cause such a drastic spike, when they knew they were gonna ban thousands of bots that have held prices where they were. It's good they are banning the bots, don't get me wrong but they are also screwing everyone whom runs a POS in the process.



POS were never meant to be a single person enterprise. They were meant to be a Corporate level effort, with groups of players sharing the costs...I have no doubt that 1-man POS operations are shutting down all over the place. Fly anywhere in high sec and the number of POS left abandoned is growing.

I also have no doubt that CCP *doesn't* want players to rely on bots to keep the economy over-supplied with materials of any kind, thus making those materials artifically cheap.

The proliferation of SuperCaps being a prime example of what happens at the top of the "botting foodchain". Instead of mining most of the minerals, players ran Anoms in 0.0 for ISK... which they then spent in Empire for various amounts of minerals...mined by botters.

Face it, for years the EVE economy has been supported 23.5/7 by a flood of minerals from botters.

Maybe we'll have a "Black Tuesday" and a "Great Depression"... and soup kitchens... and drifters hopping rides on empty freighters from systemm to system, looking for work...

"Hey buddy, can you spare a can of rocket fuel?"




POS may have not been meant for a 1 man operation, yet look at them. You can't give people access to them, even as a small corp, because they will steal you blind.

Added to this 2 of my chars can keep every slot filled with jobs, aside from ME research (hardly use it). That's 3 labs and 2 assembly arrays. Now you tell me how a POS is supposed to support multiple players if 1 large Caldari tower can barely support my 2 toons?

As far as a depression, there is one thing to remember.. EVE is a game, if people feel it's another job they can and will quit. I run a POS, to build stuff because it's semi interesting to do on the side. It becomes a lot less interesting when it becomes a grind just to fuel the tower.

The morale of the story, is high prices are bad for the game, especially in drastic spikes as we are seeing.

malkisania
asde solutions
Posted - 2011.05.22 01:14:00 - [71]
 

Edited by: malkisania on 22/05/2011 01:14:41
Even with the illeged banning of bots, The price of isotopes was likely to rise due to the rise in demand that was created for them in the 1.5 patch. With Capital Ships no longer able to use jump bridges to move about they will have to dip into jump fuel they otherwise wouldn't have needed to use before the patch.

Question is how much of the price increase is due to this and how much is because of botting bans?

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.22 06:41:00 - [72]
 

Originally by: Gillaboo

POS were never meant to be a single person enterprise. They were meant to be a Corporate level effort, with groups of players sharing the costs



Does something not convenient (ROI wise) suddenly become convenient because the costs are shared among multiple players?

Also, POSes are indeed a corporate asset by design. The execution of the design is flawed so they are not and we have to deal with the execution not the design.

IE sharing some POS functionality to corpies is impossible, restricting operations is too much "all or nothing" (read: too easy to steal OR cripple its usage).
Plus With my accounts I fill 2 POSes alone, this means a POS is something that covers a grand total of about 2 accounts.



Though, market will sort out itself.
Maybe it's finally the end of the "350k a battlecruiser BPC" times.

Florestan Bronstein
24th Imperial Crusade
Posted - 2011.05.22 07:58:00 - [73]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Does something not convenient (ROI wise) suddenly become convenient because the costs are shared among multiple players?

because not only costs are shared but some of the benefits as well (corp hangar, SMA, POS shields, ...)

fairly common to set up a moon-mining POS at a mediocre moon that is only made "profitable" by its additional utility as a safespot for ratters.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.22 08:37:00 - [74]
 

Originally by: Florestan Bronstein
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Does something not convenient (ROI wise) suddenly become convenient because the costs are shared among multiple players?

because not only costs are shared but some of the benefits as well (corp hangar, SMA, POS shields, ...)

fairly common to set up a moon-mining POS at a mediocre moon that is only made "profitable" by its additional utility as a safespot for ratters.


I was replying in the train that talked about ME / PE research etc (read: what brings IN money). This is largely an hi sec thing, when I was in 0.0 we did what you say but it was not the ME / PE factor to make it worthwhile but only the logistic. It is still a cost and going to cost more (what brings out money).

Brixer
Dai Dai Hai
Posted - 2011.05.22 16:42:00 - [75]
 

I'm out of oxygen isos today. It was a crazy run, but I see miners leaving ore-belts to hunt down the profit in ice products.
So, can anyone guess what will rise in price if miners go to ice mining, and bots continue getting banned?

Viule Sawyr
Posted - 2011.05.22 17:30:00 - [76]
 

Edited by: Viule Sawyr on 22/05/2011 17:31:09
Originally by: Florestan Bronstein
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Does something not convenient (ROI wise) suddenly become convenient because the costs are shared among multiple players?

because not only costs are shared but some of the benefits as well (corp hangar, SMA, POS shields, ...)

fairly common to set up a moon-mining POS at a mediocre moon that is only made "profitable" by its additional utility as a safespot for ratters.


Well mine is a lab POS in a C1. After standard ship bay, corp hanger and defense, I have 3 labs and 2 assembly arrays. My two toons that use the POS can use "more" than what the single large gives me.

Yes the POS doubles as a place to keep my stuff working as a base in a WH, but how exactly am I supposed to share it with anyone? There are no extra lab or build slots left, meaning only thing a corp-mate would have left over is hanger space.

Now with the fact that ship hangers have no assignable bays I'll be damned if I'm sharing that with anyone else.. lol

For a Lab POS to be a corp asset it would need to be either corp-mates that did very low volume work, or the labs would need to be changed to allow more slots.

TBH, if it wasn't for no copy slots in empire space I'd just use NPC stations. However copy slots are the bottle neck so I need a POS if I want to build at enough volume for it to be worthwhile.

Gillaboo
Posted - 2011.05.23 04:06:00 - [77]
 

Well, it is indeed the solo POS tycoons that will feel the pinch first.

Those of us lucky enough to have trustworthy corpies -- to share the cost and cooperate even for the sake of a bit of ice mining -- we'll see you on the other side.

Everything runs in cycles. This one has been a long time coming.


Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
Posted - 2011.06.03 12:21:00 - [78]
 


The total volume of isotopes offered for sale is still falling, therefore we can expect Isotopes will rise again over the coming week.


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