Posted - 2011.03.16 17:12:00 - [3]

 

Old news you know. Dr. E is on record saying the faucets are larger than the sinks at the moment (since the introduction of ihubs and anomalies in 0.0 and the removal of towers from npc supplied stuffs). So we know the isk supply is on the rise relative to the population of EVE.

Look for some adjustments to the isk faucets or the introduction of new sinks in the next major expansion. Your idea of using plex as a "gold standard" is not exactly original but does have merit. The only problem with using plex atm is that it's a passive investment not guarantied to appreciate forever (especially as re-balancing of the economy mechanics happens as CCP patches the game). Also look a historical seasonal variations in plex prices.

Posted - 2011.03.16 17:56:00 - [5]

 

Used to be you could get 90 day GTC's for 285Mil in 06 and 07. CCP took those out and brought in the 60 day cards/PLEX system and the price sky rocketed since it became so much easier to get the time. When they annouced the possibility of a PLEX for things like a remap, being able to use two PLEX for character transfers (A rip off if you convert them to dollar value compared to paying for a transfer) the prices shot up even more.

What this means is that the PLEX is really not a good choice as a "gold standard" because it is affected by outside forces. If ISK inflation matched PLEX inflation we would be paying 200Mil+ for things like the Raven.

Posted - 2011.03.17 02:56:00 - [7]

 

PLEX aren't a great measure of inflation because you can't freely exchange them for any other currency (they aren't really worth USD, since USD buy anything, PLEX only buy gametime and charitable contributions).

If for example CCP allowed you to sell PLEX on paypal for cash, the price would skyrocket, even though no inflation had occurred at all.

Posted - 2011.03.17 16:13:00 - [9]

 

The traditional ISK/PLEX rate is the closest measure we can get for inflation in Eve, and it is not a perfect measure; expressions of demand come from more than one direction. Faucet/Sink ratios can give us some indication of what the expected pace could be, but again is not a perfect measure.

The money supply changes are driven mostly by player ability to generate ISK within the constraints, dare I say regulations, of the faucet and the sinks. Demand for ISK changes not only with player age, but player population. ISK supply is largely driven by population and player age as well. They tend to balance one another out.

An overall money supply increase in Eve is not as a reliable measure of inflation as in the real world, mainly due to a generally corresponding increase in population, and likewise, demand and supply for ISK. There are few players in Eve that require more ISK than their age (skill points) allows them to generate for their needs, again driven by the age of the player.

Another difficulty for measuring inflation in Eve is that measuring overall economic growth is somewhat problematic. Business Cycle Errors in Eve are not fully expressed. The purchase of a BPO, capital equipment, in Eve can be fully liquidated where as in the real world, rusting capital equipment in a shamble of a factory can not be liquidated at full value. There is no expression of depreciation in Eve, except in the realm of illicit information.

It would seem, the best measure we could get for monetary inflation in eve is, the change in the average amount of ISK per player weighted against average player age to come up with some sort of weighted mean. We take this weighted mean and compare it to changes in the faucet/sink use ratio. This may give us some indication of "disposable ISK", for lack of a better term.

Posted - 2011.03.20 03:19:00 - [11]

 

Edited by: Railman85 on 20/03/2011 03:20:22
On my website I run indexes, which covers more than 50% of total market and most of them have risen for the last 3 months, so you must right - we have inflation :P

However i don't understand your movement - ISK will eventualy deflate, which mean you should now sell all your stuff?
I guess the inflation can't rise more, because people will start buying stuff from NPC's (like shuttless) and refining them into minerals.

Posted - 2011.03.23 23:51:00 - [13]

 

Edited by: Adunh Slavy on 23/03/2011 23:52:48
One thing we have to do in these conversations is settle on a definition for inflation. I, like everyone else in these threads, is guilty of using more than one definition at times.

If we want to speak in purely monetary terms, yes, the money supply is bigger. The money supply has inflated.The population has also increased, this tends to increase at a rate, in both account numbers and skill points, that, for the most part, keeps demand for ISK at a rather constant rate.

It would seem that is what needs to be measured, the demand for ISK. PLEX, although a direct mechanism for ISK, demand "notes" if you will, have factors other than ISK demand that effect PLEX price.

In Eve there is nothing quite like gold that can be used as a baseline. There are a few rare items that can be somewhat used to gauge the value of ISK, but they are far too rare to be widely held, and as such can't fully express sentiment.


Money Supply to Population/Skill Point ratio, in my view, is about as close as we'll ever get.

Posted - 2011.03.24 04:55:00 - [15]

 

When i started playing cal navt invuln cost 200mil, today it costs 450mil.
Faction items are a lot better than plex when it comes to retaining value.