open All Channels
seplocked Market Discussions
blankseplocked Patch Day Fund - Profit sharing - (10-19B open)
 
This thread is older than 90 days and has been locked due to inactivity.


 
Pages: [1] 2

Author Topic

Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.03 18:52:00 - [1]
 

Edited by: Machete Visor on 05/01/2011 18:28:22
Edited by: Machete Visor on 05/01/2011 14:49:47
]

Having watched others get obscenely rich, it is now time for me (and you, potentially) to cash in as well.

Trading in eve is a great way to earn ISK. Please see all my prior bonds for how it has worked out:
Prior bonds / funds / etc
Current: 18.1B outstanding (investor principal repayments of 4.7B)

Prior Funds repaid:
10.9B
2B
2B
1B


But the real way to build wealth in Eve is to take advantage of patch day changes. I haven't been around for years, so I'll talk about the two I've watched.

The opportunities come in two flavors, game mechanic changes and CCP blunders:

Tyrannis:
CCP Blunders: leaving NPC Goods for sale, allowing POS items to be reprocessable -- huge opportunity in these
Game mechanics: drop rate changes -- less opportunity here, more defensive trading. PI goods manipulation (still ongoing)

Incursion 2:
CCP Blunders: removing learning skills from the market before taking them out of the game - medium opportunity in this one

Game mechanics:

giving players skills to reallocate, players picked up level 5 skills. Tengu prices soared - picking up these at 180M-190M and flipping at 260M in a day was nice.

removing learning skills, players were unhappy with learning speed and snapped up +5 implants. Ironically someone had tried to drive the price down in the weeks before to about 108M. Quickly sold my stack at 125M+.

noctis, anyone who invested in medium salvage tackles, t2 salvage tackles, salvagers and tractor beams were nicely rewarded.

rockets / t2 ammo buffs, very little impact, most of us sold off our investment at pre-patch levels for no loss, no gain.

There are a few others that haven't run their course yet and so i won't mention them just yet.


What am I offering?
I've identified a few trends for incursion 3. Some of the price changes are obvious and already taking place, others are secondary effects and have not been reflected in the market yet. Once patch notes are posted, there will be more.

I want a warchest to invest. Thanks to the SP reallocation and EACS, I now have jump clones in all major market hubs. That means I'm not limited to my main area of operation. I want to get in now, buy inventory at the buy price and get out after patch.

But what are YOU offering?
If you've invested in my funds before, you know I like unique payouts. For this one, 2% management fee off the top goes to me, plus 20% of the profit. Rest is returned to investors.

Are you investing?
Funny you should ask, yes, 5B.

How much do you have outstanding currently?
About 18B (see thread linked at the top). These two offerings will be unrelated from a payoff/investor perspective.

Minimum investment?
500M

Max?
None.

Term?
Hope to liquidate within 2 months of the patch. Part of this will be incursion related so it may take some time to develop.

Audit?
No. From a performance perspective this strategy has nothing to do with what I am currently doing.

Collateral?
No.

...more to come in the next post

Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.03 19:02:00 - [2]
 

Can you give me more specifics on the strategy for this patch day?
Uh, no.

Does it involve hauling / low sec / null sec / war decs / etc?
No, not my thing.

Can you lose ISK in these investments?
Yes, there is some risk that CCP will introduce counter balances to offset other changes. I haven't seen that happen yet. The more likely way to lose ISK is to buy in at too high a price and not be able to liquidate in time. Mitigating this risk by buying using buy orders now. Not buying up the stack once the changes are known. I expect if anything, minimal losses (such as investing in rocket launchers pre changes).

Ok, the biggie, how much?
I think between the 4 hubs, i could easily deploy 20B. I would actually go higher so I'm not putting a cap on it. Obviously nothing ridiculous like 850B.

What about this being a scam?
Track record / investment thesis really speak to my qualificatons here. For some of you, you are in for $1, why not $2? For others, 500M is worth the punt. For others, this amount, unsecured, unaudited is not worth the risk. It is up to you.

Questions, yelling, please.

Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.03 19:11:00 - [3]
 

Edited by: Machete Visor on 05/01/2011 18:28:10
Edited by: Machete Visor on 04/01/2011 00:58:39
one further piece of business, don't send ISK yet.

I will be creating a corp and distributing shares to track investors. Corp wallet always makes it easier to track profits.

Reservations:
Barbicane - 500M
Brian Peterson - 500M

Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari
Sane Industries Inc.
Posted - 2011.01.03 20:07:00 - [4]
 

No one who was around during Tyrannis and only has 5B to invest should ever talk about how good they are at predicting expansion related investment opportunities.

Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.03 21:24:00 - [5]
 

Edited by: Machete Visor on 03/01/2011 21:28:52
Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
No one who was around during Tyrannis and only has 5B to invest should ever talk about how good they are at predicting expansion related investment opportunities.


I missed the tyrannis boom.



Risk Aversion
Posted - 2011.01.03 21:56:00 - [6]
 

smells funny

Lyris Nairn
Caldari
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2011.01.03 23:25:00 - [7]
 

Originally by: Risk Aversion
smells funny

At least I don't look funny! Please leave your negative comments out of my thread and only reply if you want to invest. :)

Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.03 23:26:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: Lyris Nairn
Originally by: Risk Aversion
smells funny

At least I don't look funny! Please leave your negative comments out of my thread and only reply if you want to invest. :)


....


Barbicane
TGUN Industries
Posted - 2011.01.03 23:45:00 - [9]
 

My gut feeling tells me this guy's rep is worth more than 20B and I'm in for 500M.

I don't recommend others to invest more than they would feel comfortable losing.

Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente
Origin.
Black Legion.
Posted - 2011.01.04 00:18:00 - [10]
 

Machete is a goon alt?

Perhaps ironically, this makes me more interested in investing.

Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
Posted - 2011.01.04 00:21:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: Dethmourne Silvermane
Machete is a goon alt?

Perhaps ironically, this makes me more interested in investing.


He's not Yih!!!


Barbicane
TGUN Industries
Posted - 2011.01.04 00:28:00 - [12]
 

Originally by: Dethmourne Silvermane
Machete is a goon alt?

Perhaps ironically, this makes me more interested in investing.
I saw that strange looking sequence of posts after making my investment decision. Not sure what to make of it right now - hoping enlightment will be provided.


Kalrand
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2011.01.04 00:43:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: Dethmourne Silvermane
Machete is a goon alt?

Perhaps ironically, this makes me more interested in investing.


He's not Yih!!!




Yih's not a goon.
(Also I have no idea if this guy is or not)

Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.04 00:55:00 - [14]
 

i have no idea who that person is - likely the same person who posted it smells funny. I posted the "...." as a "wtf?"




Kalrand
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2011.01.04 01:11:00 - [15]
 

So you have 18+ billion out, and you now want an uncapped amount of money before you repay that bond?

also, from you last thread, before you upsized it twice:

Originally by: Machete Visor
Originally by: Lecherito
My intent is not to accuse, but to fight for a higher standard of MD. People claim that you are trustworthy because you are taking in more ISK than you've held prior. I don't doubt that you'll come through this one legit. But what happens to this defense when you come back for 15 or 20 bil on your next bond, or somewhere down the road? Unless you won't ever go down that road (be careful about what you promise on the boards)? Again, not accusing, lowering outstanding debt to increase trust in preparation of a higher offering is hardly sherlock-esque social engineering. Especially when delayed gratification leads to billions.

-L


i hear you, and agree with you. if/when i come back for more, please, subject it to more scrutiny. i fully agree, don't be lulled to sleep (by me or anyone).

pls recognize i'm not downgrading the amount b/c i couldn't raise the other funds. i could've kept all the funds status quo. but i'm playing by the rules, and the rules I wrote say i must pay interest plus dividends on those funds. So I am returning them and in essence swapping them out... for less... on purpose.

Your point is dead on. Just doesn't work in this case, imho.




Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.04 01:30:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: Kalrand
So you have 18+ billion out, and you now want an uncapped amount of money before you repay that bond?

also, from you last thread, before you upsized it twice:

Originally by: Machete Visor
Originally by: Lecherito
My intent is not to accuse, but to fight for a higher standard of MD. People claim that you are trustworthy because you are taking in more ISK than you've held prior. I don't doubt that you'll come through this one legit. But what happens to this defense when you come back for 15 or 20 bil on your next bond, or somewhere down the road? Unless you won't ever go down that road (be careful about what you promise on the boards)? Again, not accusing, lowering outstanding debt to increase trust in preparation of a higher offering is hardly sherlock-esque social engineering. Especially when delayed gratification leads to billions.

-L


i hear you, and agree with you. if/when i come back for more, please, subject it to more scrutiny. i fully agree, don't be lulled to sleep (by me or anyone).

pls recognize i'm not downgrading the amount b/c i couldn't raise the other funds. i could've kept all the funds status quo. but i'm playing by the rules, and the rules I wrote say i must pay interest plus dividends on those funds. So I am returning them and in essence swapping them out... for less... on purpose.

Your point is dead on. Just doesn't work in this case, imho.






fair, however, the other bond has no termination date. it is redeemable upon demand by any lender (or payable by me at any time). Please visit the thread, I've paid back 3.7B, of which about 500M was requested by 1 investor. Otherwise dividends have been paid weekly consistently (not sure how much that adds up to).

Any of those investors are free to redeem their amount now, or at a later date and I will repay it. It makes no difference to me whether it is before or after this new idea closes. I keep enough inventory + liquid ISK on this character at all times to repay amounts owed.

As for subjecting this bond to more scrutiny - i declared all the risks upfront, there is no deception going on here.

Kalrand
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2011.01.04 01:38:00 - [17]
 

Edited by: Kalrand on 04/01/2011 02:07:54
Originally by: Machete Visor


As for subjecting this bond to more scrutiny - i declared all the risks upfront, there is no deception going on here.



At some point you might need to toss someone an api key just to see if you still have the assets/funds you claim to.

But I mean, good for you if you can just get people to send you isk indefinitely.

edit: spelling

Risk Aversion
Posted - 2011.01.04 01:48:00 - [18]
 

Edited by: Risk Aversion on 04/01/2011 01:50:54
Edited by: Risk Aversion on 04/01/2011 01:49:00
Made up unverified track record, check
Fictional qualifications, check
Smooth easygoing undefined unauditable terms, check
Doubling down on existing bonds, check
Unaudited, key-free, collateral-free offering, check
Goon altposting with cover reply, check

pass

edit: 5/10 for wordsmithery.

Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.04 02:07:00 - [19]
 

Originally by: Risk Aversion
Edited by: Risk Aversion on 04/01/2011 01:50:54
Edited by: Risk Aversion on 04/01/2011 01:49:00
Made up unverified track record, check
Fictional qualifications, check
Smooth easygoing undefined unauditable terms, check
Doubling down on existing bonds, check
Unaudited, key-free, collateral-free offering, check
Goon altposting with cover reply, check

pass

edit: 5/10 for wordsmithery.


i'll nibble on the trolling.

How is my track record unverified? The payments on other bonds/funds are well documented and organized in the thread i linked.


Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.04 02:17:00 - [20]
 

Originally by: Kalrand
Edited by: Kalrand on 04/01/2011 02:07:54
Originally by: Machete Visor


As for subjecting this bond to more scrutiny - i declared all the risks upfront, there is no deception going on here.



At some point you might need to toss someone an api key just to see if you still have the assets/funds you claim to.

But I mean, good for you if you can just get people to send you isk indefinitely.

edit: spelling


This is a good idea. I stopped using eve-commander b/c of data corruption issues, but I just resubscribed. I'll load the data onto the account and give someone access. Will give a snap shot of order history, inventory, market orders (escrow etc) as well as any suspicious transfers etc.

Not sure who that person will be yet. Preferrably an investor, but someone who everyone is certain is not me. Maybe RAW since he invested in my last bond.

Kalrand
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2011.01.04 02:31:00 - [21]
 

Edited by: Kalrand on 04/01/2011 02:35:14
Originally by: Machete Visor


This is a good idea. I stopped using eve-commander b/c of data corruption issues, but I just resubscribed. I'll load the data onto the account and give someone access. Will give a snap shot of order history, inventory, market orders (escrow etc) as well as any suspicious transfers etc.

Not sure who that person will be yet. Preferrably an investor, but someone who everyone is certain is not me. Maybe RAW since he invested in my last bond.




I'm not familiar with eve-commander, but I don't see the ability to give others access to your information, based on a cursory look at their site. Is that a feature they offer?

Risk Aversion
Posted - 2011.01.04 02:48:00 - [22]
 

Originally by: Machete Visor


i'll nibble on the trolling.

How is my track record unverified? The payments on other bonds/funds are well documented and organized in the thread i linked.




Referring to any criticism as "trolling", check.
Self-referencing prior unvalidated funds as proof of validity, circular referencing, check.


Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.04 02:58:00 - [23]
 

Originally by: Kalrand
Edited by: Kalrand on 04/01/2011 02:35:14
Originally by: Machete Visor


This is a good idea. I stopped using eve-commander b/c of data corruption issues, but I just resubscribed. I'll load the data onto the account and give someone access. Will give a snap shot of order history, inventory, market orders (escrow etc) as well as any suspicious transfers etc.

Not sure who that person will be yet. Preferrably an investor, but someone who everyone is certain is not me. Maybe RAW since he invested in my last bond.




I'm not familiar with eve-commander, but I don't see the ability to give others access to your information, based on a cursory look at their site. Is that a feature they offer?


...when i give the person my account name/password, it will.
I did the same thing for varo jan when he first audited my account. Also did it for celi arnor when he first invested 800M in my original offering.

For giggles, i'll also post a screenshot or two... then someone can check and confirm they aren't photo shopped


Kalrand
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2011.01.04 03:09:00 - [24]
 

Originally by: Machete Visor
Originally by: Kalrand
Edited by: Kalrand on 04/01/2011 02:35:14
Originally by: Machete Visor


This is a good idea. I stopped using eve-commander b/c of data corruption issues, but I just resubscribed. I'll load the data onto the account and give someone access. Will give a snap shot of order history, inventory, market orders (escrow etc) as well as any suspicious transfers etc.

Not sure who that person will be yet. Preferrably an investor, but someone who everyone is certain is not me. Maybe RAW since he invested in my last bond.




I'm not familiar with eve-commander, but I don't see the ability to give others access to your information, based on a cursory look at their site. Is that a feature they offer?


...when i give the person my account name/password, it will.
I did the same thing for varo jan when he first audited my account. Also did it for celi arnor when he first invested 800M in my original offering.

For giggles, i'll also post a screenshot or two... then someone can check and confirm they aren't photo shopped




Well the gold standard would be to toss someone a full api key, and then change it to a new value after a week or whatever.

Machete Visor
Posted - 2011.01.04 05:00:00 - [25]
 

I just did a quick check w/ eve commander on networth and it comes out to 4.4-4.5B. That is after deducting the 18.1B I owe from the other bond.

Roughly:
8.8B Inventory
4.3B Escrow
5.1B Sell
3.5B Cash
0.7B Contract
(18.1B) Loan

I recognize posting this in the forum is meaningless, so i'll work with someone to get it verified by a third party. That will provide comfort that my track record is sound and i'm not just ponzing increasing loans to pay interest each week.

Liberty Eternal
Posted - 2011.01.04 06:21:00 - [26]
 

Scam scam scam scam.

Rykker Bow
Posted - 2011.01.04 06:28:00 - [27]
 

you have 18b out already and you're hoping to get 20b more? (more as you do not have a limit set)

38b? uncollateralized?

That is a hefty sum. I'm not calling scam or anything of the sort but these sized loans/bonds are few and far between.

Lederstrumpf
Posted - 2011.01.04 06:48:00 - [28]
 

Edited by: Lederstrumpf on 04/01/2011 18:40:03
Originally by: Machete Visor
it is now time for me [..] to cash in


I just like to quote stuff.


P.S.: For a really successful trader _any_ time is a good time to cash in.

RAW23
Posted - 2011.01.04 09:34:00 - [29]
 

First off, I'm not the person you want to do an audit on this as my abilities on this front are not up to the job.

Secondly, why do you want this done through eve-commander rather than via the normal route of an api audit? I would strongly urge you to get a full and proper audit done for an increase of this size.

Third point: this expansion follows hard on the heels of your previous expansion and changes you risk profile from an investment point of view by a very large degree. I invested in your 10bil offering and didn't say anything when you doubled that because I thought that amount was just about ok, although at the higher boundary of total exposure I was prepared to accept whilst investing in you. Doubling the amount again pushes you far beyond that boundary, so I would like to cash out of the other bond please.

A final point that is closely related to my decision to cash out is the NAV to debt ratio here. You want to hold debt with no upper limit (!) when your NAV is under 5bil. If this offering fills, your debts will be about nine times the size of your personal net worth and this kind of ratio worries me intensely. If you were making five bil a week it would be less of an issue but, as it is, you would only have to suffer a 10% loss on the total to wipe yourself out completely. From the perspective of assessing the risk of potential scams we are looking here at a total level of debt that amounts to something like four years of earnings for you (assuming that the 4.5bil of NAV was earned over 6 months) and such a payoff would be very attractive to anyone who had been planning a scam. I make no suggestion that you are just that I would personally assess the risk of investing into such a weighted ratio as very high.

Kalrand
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2011.01.04 11:25:00 - [30]
 

Originally by: RAW23
Doubling the amount again pushes you far beyond that boundary, so I would like to cash out of the other bond please.



This is now getting interesting.


Pages: [1] 2

This thread is older than 90 days and has been locked due to inactivity.


 


The new forums are live

Please adjust your bookmarks to https://forums.eveonline.com

These forums are archived and read-only