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Fons Vinae
Posted - 2010.12.14 11:44:00 - [1]
 

Price of robotics went from 7k isk NPC price to 67k isk current Jita price.

THIS IS NOT A WHINE THREAD BEACUSE I UNDERSTAND THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND. IT IS MERELY A QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPLY IN THE GALAXY.

I would think the reason behind it is a number of reasons:

1. PI is a waste of time in empire where the vast majority of population resides. I did setup an extraction network on SiSi b4 the launch to see how it works and the yield was horrible. Havent tried it since.

2. Clicky click. PI needs daily attention if you want any kind of isk out of it. If youre producing higher tier materials you need to load/unload if youre extracting you need to restart every single extraction process manually.

3. Demand. A single light T2 drone BPO needs roughly 140 robotics per day to run. I do not know how many BPO's were put out. On Jita market alone about 21k light drones are sold every day.

Each one consumed one unit of Robotics to be built.

There are medium and heavy drones...which use 3 and 2 robotics respectively to be built.

Here I merely scratch the surface. Robotics are also consumed as a POS fuel and for building materials to later build POS's and POS structures, where i'd say the vast majority is going.

4. Supply. To build those 21k robotics per day you first need to build 70k of each mechanical parts and consumer electronics. Total: 140k

To build said mechanical parts and consumer electronics you need to first build 560k of each reactive metals, precious metals, toxic metals and chiral structures. Total: 2,24 M

To build said reactive metals, precious metals, toxic metals and chiral structures you need to first extract 84 M units each of the appropriate planetary materials. Total: 336 M

Now let's go back up the pyramid...

Let's say you have a good planet and extract on a 23 hour cycle which means you get 4000 units of planetary materials per hour. This would be a routine of a normal human being with a RL and since this is not that hugely popular MMO, most ppl do have RL. If you are a macro you can easily do 30min cycles all day long, but we wont see you posting here, will we?

To extract a day's worth that was consumed by builders that build 21k of light T2 drones that are sold daily on Jita market you need to do 84.000 hours of extraction = 3.500 days.

Then you need to build 1,196M of reactive metals, precious metals, toxic metals and chiral structures which takes 56.000 hours = 2.333 days

Then you need to build mechanical parts and consumer electronics which takes 28.000 hours = 1.166 days

Finally you need to build robotics which takes 7.000 hours = 292 days

Grand TOTAL: 7.291 days worth of work.

Let's be optimistic and say everyone in 0.0 has PI skills maxed. They can have 6 planets doing extraction 24/7 and churn out over 2M of planetary materials a day but they need to unload them more than twice a day. There still needs to be 168 of those people just to produce what T2 light drones need to be built.

So...Discuss. I would also direct a question @ CCP on whether they have done the calculations on supply / demand because they do have all the data they need. They know how many ppl are playing the industrial part of the game and have a doctor of economics that should have been able to create a model as to how many ppl are likely to do PI. They also know how much of what is created and consumed on a daily basis.

IF they have unwittingly produced a bottleneck then it would be prudent to fix that.

Maybe we even get the good doctor's analysis of reasons behind the steep rise of prices of planetary stuff

Lutz Major
Posted - 2010.12.14 12:37:00 - [2]
 

Edited by: Lutz Major on 14/12/2010 12:44:40

I don't know how you got your numbers, but my extractors and processors do not work one after the other, they are working parallel.

Even with average skills and in high-sec you should easily be able to produce 150 units of Robotics per day with one char.

edit: wording

Brian Ballsack
Posted - 2010.12.14 14:24:00 - [3]
 

Your obvioulsy running a very poor PI setup, you can make 4x more robotics than that in high sec.
Also i dont know why people seem to think that PI incolves more clicking than other eve passtimes, becuase it does not.

Harunhh
Posted - 2010.12.14 14:25:00 - [4]
 

Massive demand on any commodity leads to price increases and at a certain point the activity to create that commodity becomes profitable to more and more suppliers.

When producing robotics in 0.0 and shipping them into empire starts earning peoples gazooglions of ISK you can be guaranteed someone somewhere will start doing it....

Master Flakattack
Posted - 2010.12.14 14:26:00 - [5]
 

Originally by: Lutz Major
Even with average skills and in high-sec you should easily be able to produce 150 units of Robotics per day with one char.

This. Too many hi-sec players put all their equipment on one planet. If you want to make robotics, you're going to need to spread your stuff around a few planets, but 150 units is possible.

That's what, 8.25m for a few minutes of clicking a day? You'll have all your PI equipment paid off in a few days, and then you're enjoying a nice mostly passive income.

Barbicane
TGUN Industries
Posted - 2010.12.14 21:27:00 - [6]
 

Originally by: Lutz Major

I don't know how you got your numbers, but my extractors and processors do not work one after the other, they are working parallel.

Even with average skills and in high-sec you should easily be able to produce 150 units of Robotics per day with one char.

edit: wording
Please provide more details.
I think 150 units per day in high-sec is probably possible for someone whose schedule allows use of 5-hour cycles around the clock, but hardly for a normal, working person. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

Suicida1
Posted - 2010.12.14 22:57:00 - [7]
 

Edited by: Suicida1 on 14/12/2010 22:59:13
There are 40 000 poses in eve (confirmed by dev in some other thread), thats 40 000 x 24 = 960 000 for POS fuel alone

+ Robotics is used in Drone, Missile launchers, Turrets and many other BPOs
+ Robotics is used for POS module productions
+ Plasma is the rarest type of planet

Thats easily 1 500 000 units of Robotics consumed daily across the universe.

Barbicane
TGUN Industries
Posted - 2010.12.14 23:21:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: Suicida1

+ Robotics is used in Drone, Missile launchers, Turrets and many other BPOs
+ Robotics is used for POS module productions
+ Plasma is the rarest type of planet



Robotics are also used in all t2 armor repairers. 2 robotics per small t2 armor repper, 4 per medium, and 8 per large.

If anyone wonders why t2 armor reppers are getting more expensive lately, the reason can be traced back to the price hike in robotics, and I expect the trend will continue for a quite while.

Xearal
Minmatar
SOL Industries
Black Thorne Alliance
Posted - 2010.12.15 00:18:00 - [9]
 

Plasma planets are nice for people that want lazy passive income. They're not all that usefull to make robotics.
With Elite Command centers and 5 planets, you can churn out 12 robotis per hour, thats 288 per day on a single account easily.
While yes, the demand for them is rising rapidly, I don't think the supply will have much problems, as price rises, more people will do it, and there's plenty of people who have PI setups on multiple toons. someone that really wants to, could use say 3 toons, each churning out 288 robotics per day, that's 864 robotics, made by a single account.
at say, 50k each, this person will be making 43.2M a day, aka 1.3B a month, you try and make that kind of money in a month with at most, 3 hours of doing somethign per day.

Goodluvins
Posted - 2010.12.15 01:00:00 - [10]
 

This probably doesn't have to be stated, but I would not worry about the intergalactic supply. If you understand supply and demand, then you know that eventually as prices rise because supply is low, people are going to say "Oh look, I can make a fortune creating robotics...". This is a form of market self-correction that is a normal part of the capital system.

Patri Andari
Caldari
Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
Posted - 2010.12.15 01:31:00 - [11]
 

Oh look, I can make a fortune creating robotics!







Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.12.15 02:08:00 - [12]
 

Originally by: Fons Vinae
Grand TOTAL: 7.291 days worth of work

There are roughly 350k active accounts with almost 700k characters.
So you basically need just 1% of the character population involved in Robotics production.
Doesn't sound like much of a problem.

Lutz Major
Posted - 2010.12.15 08:35:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: Barbicane
Please provide more details.
I think 150 units per day in high-sec is probably possible for someone whose schedule allows use of 5-hour cycles around the clock, but hardly for a normal, working person. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

An advanced command center holds easily 12 extractors, four P1 and two P2 processors. An average 1000 unit extraction per 30min-cycle on 23hrs produces 46k units of P0 items.

6 * extractors of Heavy Metals produce 276k units per 23 hours, running through the P1 Toxic Metals Schematic processor you receive 276k / 3000 = 92 * 20 = 1840 units of Toxic Metals. The same goes for Chiral Structures.

For the Consumer Electronics schematic you need 40 units each Toxic Metal and Chiral Structures. Per 40 units the output is 5 units: 1840 / 40 * 5 = 230 units of Consumer Electronics.

P3 schematics, like Robotics, use 10 units of Mechanical Parts and 10 units of Consumer Electronics to produce 3 units of Robotics: 230 / 10 * 3 = 69 units per two planets. Colonize 4 and you have 138 units of Robotics each day.


...and this is a lousy setup with lousy extraction numbers.

AstarothPrime
Posted - 2010.12.15 08:55:00 - [14]
 

Originally by: Fons Vinae
Price of robotics went from 7k isk NPC price to 67k isk current Jita price.

THIS IS NOT A WHINE THREAD BEACUSE I UNDERSTAND THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND. IT IS MERELY A QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPLY IN THE GALAXY.



Supply is infinite. Just make the carrot big enough to make it feasible to utilise hisec plasma planets and youll see 10000 bears doing it.

Meanwhile my stranded 0sec plasma planet is getting better and better by the day Laughing

I.

Aphrodite Skripalle
Galactic Defence Consortium
Posted - 2010.12.15 09:37:00 - [15]
 

When PI was launched, the first thing i did was making robotics, because i thought, this would make me the most profit.
But it wasnt because of several reasons.

I am very sure, once the price will be high enough, TONS of robotics will be produced, so the market will regulate this.

Wait and see, let people make profit out of this situation.
And IF after a long time still there is great demand let ccp balance it a bit.
There is nothing to fix now. Your numbers can be wrong.

AstarothPrime
Posted - 2010.12.15 11:19:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: Aphrodite Skripalle
When PI was launched, the first thing i did was making robotics, because i thought, this would make me the most profit.
But it wasnt because of several reasons.

I am very sure, once the price will be high enough, TONS of robotics will be produced, so the market will regulate this.

Wait and see, let people make profit out of this situation.
And IF after a long time still there is great demand let ccp balance it a bit.
There is nothing to fix now. Your numbers can be wrong.


Actually - there IS something to fix - robotics (or more accurately mech parts) are THE component for PI. And demand will allways be there due to reason its used for both alot popular T2 stuff (drones, we all use T2 drones) and POS fuel in 2 different forms.

Plasma planets being source or robotics and enriched uranium are actually THE planet to milk atm. This should change - other components sould be more meaningful - who the hell uses idk viral agent.

I.

I.

Fons Vinae
Posted - 2010.12.15 13:13:00 - [17]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Fons Vinae
Grand TOTAL: 7.291 days worth of work

There are roughly 350k active accounts with almost 700k characters.
So you basically need just 1% of the character population involved in Robotics production.
Doesn't sound like much of a problem.


I must correct you here. That 1 % of the population is needed to produce enough robotics for a days worth of lght T2 drone sales in Jita alone.

Usage for POS fuel and building and building other modules is totally unaccounted for. As someone else stated above, the POS's deployed in EVE eat 960.000 robotics per day just to stay online. This is 45 times more and from 1 percent (which is a lowball number at best by itself), we are already @ 46 percent of the population. And that's only robotics. There are lots of other planetary materials that need to be built.

My question is whether there even is enough players in EVE to keep the consumption levels equal to what they were before PI. (If everyone would do PI, would there be enough materials to go around?)

I do not have the numbers but CCP does, and I would like to see their doctor of economics to crunch them and let us know. How many hours of PI operation was needed to build planetary materials that could satisfy the need of top 200 T2 products in sale volume and/or value + sold POS and POS modules + POS consumption on a particular day. With access to the database and some programming knowledge this should not be too hard to do.


Greg Huff
Posted - 2010.12.15 14:27:00 - [18]
 

Wait a minute... are you guys saying that there is a product out there that has a greater demand than supply? OH THE HORROR!!

Prices will keep going up... people will make a fortune off of it!!! THE INHUMANITY!!!

Pilots will be driven in droves to start producing as many robotics as they can. They'll flood the market!! Markets will crash!! Millions will be homeless. Waves of suicides will sweep across the galaxy!! PLEASE, IN THE NAME OF ALL THAT'S SACRED, MAKE IT STOP!!

Itsuro
Posted - 2010.12.15 15:08:00 - [19]
 

The prices for robotics are not increasing because of supply and demand. They are increasing because of costs. To build 3 robotics via PI you need 5 mechanical parts for 10k isk/piece and 5 consumer electronics for 6k isk/piece. This is 80k isk to produce 3 robotics, that means 1 robotic costs 27k isk in producing. Of course there is nobody selling them for 7k.

The more interesting question is: Robotics are used for nearly every T2 product. Because of robotics costs for maintaining a pos have doubled. So it should inflict prices for moonmins. Why prices for t2 equipment are that low??Confused

Mia Restolo
Posted - 2010.12.15 15:14:00 - [20]
 

Originally by: Fons Vinae
...I must correct you here. That 1 % of the population is needed to produce enough robotics for a days worth of lght T2 drone sales in Jita alone.

...


Drone sales do not represent drones manufactured or destroyed, traders can buy and sell thousands of them per day. Each buy/sell cycle represents 2 sales but only one drone. The actual numbers of manufactured drones can only be guessed at unless released in QEN or something.

There may indeed be a bottleneck but the market and motivated individuals should be able to handle it.

Eastman Color
Posted - 2010.12.15 15:36:00 - [21]
 

Originally by: Fons Vinae

Things I shouldn't be shouting about



Pro tip:
Find a good money maker, keep it a secret for as long as you can and milk it dry.

Greg Huff
Posted - 2010.12.15 15:39:00 - [22]
 

Edited by: Greg Huff on 15/12/2010 15:46:07
Originally by: Itsuro
The prices for robotics are not increasing because of supply and demand.
Originally by: Itsuro
They are increasing because of costs. To build 3 robotics via PI you need 5 mechanical parts for 10k isk/piece and 5 consumer electronics for 6k isk/piece. This is 80k isk to produce 3 robotics, that means 1 robotic costs 27k isk in producing. Of course there is nobody selling them for 7k.
You do realize that you successfully contradicted yourself within a single paragraph, right? The only reason Mechanical Parts are 10k isk/piece is because of supply and demand.

If you produce robotics from scratch the most they could cost is 7,582.13 isk each. To get to that cost you have to launch the raw mats (not export) then import them to another planet, then launch the next stage, so on and so forth.

If at any point you are purchasing material of any stage from the market you are subjecting your production costs to the results of supply and demand.

Furthermore your numbers are wrong. You need 10 Mechanical Parts and 10 Consumer Electronics to produce 3 Robotics. Therefore [10MP x 10,000isk]+[10CE x 6,000isk]=[3R] or 53,333isk each.

Berikath
Posted - 2010.12.15 16:14:00 - [23]
 

Originally by: AstarothPrime
Originally by: Fons Vinae
Price of robotics went from 7k isk NPC price to 67k isk current Jita price.

THIS IS NOT A WHINE THREAD BEACUSE I UNDERSTAND THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND. IT IS MERELY A QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPLY IN THE GALAXY.



Supply is infinite. Just make the carrot big enough to make it feasible to utilise hisec plasma planets and youll see 10000 bears doing it.

Meanwhile my stranded 0sec plasma planet is getting better and better by the day Laughing

I.


Actually, there is an argument which would go against that. If, on average, each character consumes more PI products than that character is capable of producing then supply is quite borked and playing habits would have to change to make the game work.

Now, I don't really think this is the case, but it's hard to really get a good feel for it with how much of how many different commodities were stockpiled.

In the case of robotics, you'd be looking at 13 processors (8 basic) per chain. If you figure 2 extractors per BIF, a single character should be able to fit 4 full chains over 6 planets, making 288 robotics per day. If 1 million robotics are consumed daily, that would work out to about 3500 characters to produce those robotics.

However, keep in mind this is single players with inefficiencies in their chains and significantly worse extractor ratios than could be gotten with dedicated 0.0 production. I figure those million robotics could be made by 2000 or fewer characters with more optimized layouts and higher extraction rates.

Barbicane
TGUN Industries
Posted - 2010.12.15 17:30:00 - [24]
 

Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: Barbicane
Please provide more details...
An advanced command center holds easily 12 extractors, four P1 and two P2 processors. An average 1000 unit extraction per 30min-cycle on 23hrs produces 46k units of P0 items.

I think that's the problem right there. You don't get 1000 units per 30 minutes on the 23 hour cycle. For some mats maybe but not the Non-CS crystals and not the Noble Metals. You'd be lucky to get 500 units per 30 minutes on the 23 hour cycle, at least on the planets I checked (in 0.5 sec).

Itsuro
Posted - 2010.12.15 17:43:00 - [25]
 

Originally by: Greg Huff
Edited by: Greg Huff on 15/12/2010 15:46:07
Originally by: Itsuro
The prices for robotics are not increasing because of supply and demand.
Originally by: Itsuro
They are increasing because of costs. To build 3 robotics via PI you need 5 mechanical parts for 10k isk/piece and 5 consumer electronics for 6k isk/piece. This is 80k isk to produce 3 robotics, that means 1 robotic costs 27k isk in producing. Of course there is nobody selling them for 7k.
You do realize that you successfully contradicted yourself within a single paragraph, right? The only reason Mechanical Parts are 10k isk/piece is because of supply and demand.

If you produce robotics from scratch the most they could cost is 7,582.13 isk each. To get to that cost you have to launch the raw mats (not export) then import them to another planet, then launch the next stage, so on and so forth.

If at any point you are purchasing material of any stage from the market you are subjecting your production costs to the results of supply and demand.

Furthermore your numbers are wrong. You need 10 Mechanical Parts and 10 Consumer Electronics to produce 3 Robotics. Therefore [10MP x 10,000isk]+[10CE x 6,000isk]=[3R] or 53,333isk each.


Hmmm, of course every trader and producer is bound to the law of supply and demand. All I wanted to say is, that there isnít any magic behind the prices of robotics, but the producers thinking about profit when they built them. And if you are right, and each robotics costs 53k isk in production, then there is no sense in producing robotics. Cause even when you produce them from the scratch, why not selling mechanical parts and consumer Electronics and making the same money. Or producing only mechanical parts using all planets for this and earning more money. The production step to robotics is unprofitable. You can use the capacity for something with more profit. When you see it this way, the price for robotics is very low, not high. When it gets above 70k or more I would think about producing themÖ


 

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