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Caldariftw123
Posted - 2011.02.21 13:14:00 - [271]
 

Originally by: RaTTuS
my wallet just got BIG Shocked


"71,683,575,583.92" So did Akita T's wallet lol

missminer69
Posted - 2011.02.21 14:23:00 - [272]
 

Looks like unless you have capped a tech moon you can no longer produce technetium components for a profit (albeit next to nothing).

Is that the case?

Initial investment is appraoching 2bil for a weeks worth a reaction?

Tanaka Kharn
Posted - 2011.02.21 17:59:00 - [273]
 

up up ...and AWAYVery Happy

Zun Da
Posted - 2011.02.21 18:30:00 - [274]
 

Who buys all this stuff?

And where will be the next threshold?

Tanaka Kharn
Posted - 2011.02.21 18:35:00 - [275]
 

Who knows but i bet it crashs bad .. sell sell

Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2011.02.21 18:37:00 - [276]
 

Originally by: Tanaka Kharn
Who knows but i bet it crashs bad .. sell sell



Yeah, sell sell, quick quick Very Happy

Leroy Daniels
Posted - 2011.02.21 18:46:00 - [277]
 

Looks like Neo wont be catching up with Tech soon after all Twisted Evil

Elise DarkStar
Posted - 2011.02.21 19:15:00 - [278]
 

Notice the high daily volume, meaning someone bought in again for speculation.

I'm probably still going to be saying the same thing when it's at 120+ and look like even more of a jackass, but this just doesn't seem right. I keep waiting for the big stockpile cashins, yet they never come (besides akita), and people are still buying in to hold at ever higher prices. I'm not one of those people who thinks it's going to crash hard, but this last leg of price rises is moving way too fast for all the tech that I think is still out there.

Makes me nervous...

Also, ya, neod rocks. I've made a fukton off of neod and related products, despite having no clue why it's rising so fast Razz

Caldariftw123
Posted - 2011.02.21 19:23:00 - [279]
 

Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Notice the high daily volume, meaning someone bought in again for speculation.

I'm probably still going to be saying the same thing when it's at 120+ and look like even more of a jackass, but this just doesn't seem right. I keep waiting for the big stockpile cashins, yet they never come (besides akita), and people are still buying in to hold at ever higher prices. I'm not one of those people who thinks it's going to crash hard, but this last leg of price rises is moving way too fast for all the tech that I think is still out there.

Makes me nervous...

Also, ya, neod rocks. I've made a fukton off of neod and related products, despite having no clue why it's rising so fast Razz


? Volume isn't particularly high, previous days have been higher.. Lots of backstock of 100K+ orders were stuck on the market and simply eaten up.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.02.21 19:28:00 - [280]
 

Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: RaTTuS
my wallet just got BIG Shocked

"71,683,575,583.92" So did Akita T's wallet lol

No, actually, that was BEFORE the buyoff.
Now it's 156 bil-ish Twisted Evil
And I just put up another half mil at 90k, so that's another 45 bil in waiting Wink
Still have 1.5 mil extra other than the above-mentioned ones.

Elise DarkStar
Posted - 2011.02.21 19:29:00 - [281]
 

Originally by: Caldariftw123
? Volume isn't particularly high, previous days have been higher.. Lots of backstock of 100K+ orders were stuck on the market and simply eaten up.


I swear to god the graph was just at a little under 2m units for the day. Now it's down to 1m...

Buggy-ass game.

Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
Posted - 2011.02.21 19:30:00 - [282]
 

Originally by: Akita T

Now it's 156 bil-ish Twisted Evil
And I just put up another half mil at 90k, so that's another 45 bil in waiting Wink
Still have 1.5 mil extra other than the above-mentioned ones.


Shocked Good god, I've been doing it wrong!


Leroy Daniels
Posted - 2011.02.21 19:35:00 - [283]
 

Originally by: Elise DarkStar


Also, ya, neod rocks. I've made a fukton off of neod and related products, despite having no clue why it's rising so fast Razz


Look for Akita's original thread where he predicted the insane price increase of Technetium and you will see why Neo is going up.

Elise DarkStar
Posted - 2011.02.21 19:37:00 - [284]
 

Originally by: Leroy Daniels
Originally by: Elise DarkStar


Also, ya, neod rocks. I've made a fukton off of neod and related products, despite having no clue why it's rising so fast Razz


Look for Akita's original thread where he predicted the insane price increase of Technetium and you will see why Neo is going up.


I will. Thanks.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.02.21 19:40:00 - [285]
 

Originally by: Elise DarkStar
this just doesn't seem right. I keep waiting for the big stockpile cashins, yet they never come (besides akita), and people are still buying in to hold at ever higher prices. I'm not one of those people who thinks it's going to crash hard, but this last leg of price rises is moving way too fast for all the tech that I think is still out there. Makes me nervous...

Well, absent CCP intervention, there's absolutely no chance of it to crash hard at all, at most it can correct after an overspeculation, but that's about it.
The hilarity however would come in case CCP actually DOES decide to do something (yeah, I know, not much of a chance, but there still is some), afterall, it's been well over a year and everything has been evolving pretty much exactly the way the doomsayers (like myself) have been warning (granted, the timeline is a bit slower, but that's about it), so CCP MIGHT just do something...
...and if that "something" happens without warning (like yet another build material adjustment, but this time without hefty SiSi warning time), whoever is still holding on to massive stockpiles could end up quite burned overnight (they'll still get burned even with warning, just not quite as badly).

Tanaka Kharn
Posted - 2011.02.21 19:44:00 - [286]
 

Suggest you put that spare 1.5 mil on the table thenWink

Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2011.02.21 19:47:00 - [287]
 

Edited by: Gnulpie on 21/02/2011 20:10:41
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Notice the high daily volume, meaning someone bought in again for speculation.

I'm probably still going to be saying the same thing when it's at 120+ and look like even more of a jackass, but this just doesn't seem right. I keep waiting for the big stockpile cashins, yet they never come (besides akita), and people are still buying in to hold at ever higher prices. I'm not one of those people who thinks it's going to crash hard, but this last leg of price rises is moving way too fast for all the tech that I think is still out there.

Makes me nervous...

Also, ya, neod rocks. I've made a fukton off of neod and related products, despite having no clue why it's rising so fast Razz


Well, you could for example look at what consumes technetium and try to figure out the relation between technetium consumed and technetium piled up for speculation.

What consumes technetium? Nanotransistors and Fullerides.

You need 50 technetium (plus other stuff) to produce 1500 nanotransistors and 50 technetium (plus other stuff) to produce 3000 Fullerides.

How many nanotransistors and fullerides are sold daily (in jita)? At least 15m nanotrans. and 20m fullerides in average. Sometimes a lot more, rarely less.

This means that these things consume roughly 830k technetium daily. That equals the output of 345 tech moons working at full capacity and all of the tech dumped onto the market, nothing of it hold back.

If you consider the trade with nanotrans and fullerides else where in New Eden to be 25% of the trade in Jita, then you come up with a need for around 1 mil technetium daily (that equals the output of 417 moons).

That are the numbers. The consumption is indisputable. The demand is there.

How much is daily traded in Jita? How much can be stockpiled?

And would it matter if the tech moon holders would hold back large amount of technetium (for example if there would be 700 or more tech moons)? Not really, since they are not at all interested in a tech price crash.


But as with all market things, you can't be ever sure that there isn't something else going on Very Happy

Edit: Of course you have a blow up in the trade volume by resellers etc. However, look for a more detailed analysis at Atika T's long technetium thread.

Caldariftw123
Posted - 2011.02.21 20:05:00 - [288]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: RaTTuS
my wallet just got BIG Shocked

"71,683,575,583.92" So did Akita T's wallet lol

No, actually, that was BEFORE the buyoff.
Now it's 156 bil-ish Twisted Evil
And I just put up another half mil at 90k, so that's another 45 bil in waiting Wink
Still have 1.5 mil extra other than the above-mentioned ones.


Awesome, congrats! Soon you'll be rich like the rest of us. :P

Elise DarkStar
Posted - 2011.02.21 20:06:00 - [289]
 

I'm referring to the vast stockpiles that were bought by speculators more than a year ago, not current extracted supply.

My point is that this (80K+ pu, 1+ year later) is where I expected anyone still holding to finally cash in. However, we haven't seen many huge stockpiles hit the market (besides akita), in fact people still seem to be buying in to hold. At some point speculators have to think that the price has peaked, then we'll see the drop to the long-term stable range. I'm just nervous that people think it's going to be 150k, not 100k, and they seem to have the balls to risk it, which makes the final sell-off choice far more risky and complex, like a game of chicken.

That or these vast speculation stockpiles no longer exist and we're in the final leg to long term stability.


Nadarius Chrome
Celestial Horizon Corp.
Posted - 2011.02.21 20:48:00 - [290]
 

Originally by: Gnulpie
How many nanotransistors and fullerides are sold daily (in jita)? At least 15m nanotrans. and 20m fullerides in average. Sometimes a lot more, rarely less.


But how many times is a single unit running through the market before being consumed?

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.02.21 21:18:00 - [291]
 

Originally by: Nadarius Chrome
But how many times is a single unit running through the market before being consumed?

My guess, on average, somewhere between 1.05 and 1.25

Sig Sour
Posted - 2011.02.21 21:26:00 - [292]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Well, absent CCP intervention, there's absolutely no chance of it to crash hard at all, at most it can correct after an overspeculation, but that's about it.

It could happen outside of CCP intervention, however EXTEREMLY unlikely that someone could get a hold of all of the "next easiest to control moon" and choke it off entirely. With absolutely no supply of that goo, technium couldn't be used to build anything, rendering it useless. Extremely unlikely. Tech is a safe investment until CCP makes a move.

So if CCP never does anything about it, then the realistic safeguard of knowing when to back off technium is when T2 ship prices start to meet T3 ship prices.

I would also like to mention that unlike most materials, Technium is likely at 100% production rate. So if there is no shady diamond business happening with a cut off of supply and 100% of it is making it to the market/mfg, then the driving force of technium will be the number of people playing Eve.

StuRyan
Posted - 2011.02.22 09:00:00 - [293]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
this just doesn't seem right. I keep waiting for the big stockpile cashins, yet they never come (besides akita), and people are still buying in to hold at ever higher prices. I'm not one of those people who thinks it's going to crash hard, but this last leg of price rises is moving way too fast for all the tech that I think is still out there. Makes me nervous...

Well, absent CCP intervention, there's absolutely no chance of it to crash hard at all, at most it can correct after an overspeculation, but that's about it.
The hilarity however would come in case CCP actually DOES decide to do something (yeah, I know, not much of a chance, but there still is some), afterall, it's been well over a year and everything has been evolving pretty much exactly the way the doomsayers (like myself) have been warning (granted, the timeline is a bit slower, but that's about it), so CCP MIGHT just do something...
...and if that "something" happens without warning (like yet another build material adjustment, but this time without hefty SiSi warning time), whoever is still holding on to massive stockpiles could end up quite burned overnight (they'll still get burned even with warning, just not quite as badly).



Or with the Technetium Components not catching up people will just switch their reaction chain. What I am seeing is people are now reacting the technetium on the moon to make the components where as before you could buy the tech and spin a profit. With the new prices and the tech components not moving I would te market may move the other way - Fullerides and Nano transistors are now in the hands of technetium moon holders (ie the NC)... A question to ask is who is buying? If the majority of the the people who are buying technetium are thsoe that react it then I forsee a decrease in demand (as currently) the price of the tech 2 component is not increasing enough to warrant a 2 bill + investment for a weeks worth of reaction.

Cyaxares II
Posted - 2011.02.22 16:12:00 - [294]
 

Edited by: Cyaxares II on 22/02/2011 16:12:08

CNNMoney.com headline: "Why tech is not a bubble. Seriously." Laughing

(Linkage)

Petyr Baelich
Valar Morghulis.
Get Off My Lawn
Posted - 2011.02.22 16:21:00 - [295]
 

Originally by: StuRyan
Or with the Technetium Components not catching up people will just switch their reaction chain. What I am seeing is people are now reacting the technetium on the moon to make the components where as before you could buy the tech and spin a profit. With the new prices and the tech components not moving I would te market may move the other way - Fullerides and Nano transistors are now in the hands of technetium moon holders (ie the NC)... A question to ask is who is buying? If the majority of the the people who are buying technetium are thsoe that react it then I forsee a decrease in demand (as currently) the price of the tech 2 component is not increasing enough to warrant a 2 bill + investment for a weeks worth of reaction.


There is decent profit to be made running the reactions, although a lot of it is also trading profit; timing the market and setting large buy orders @ 30d lows and putting your sells at 30d highs. At current prices the manufacturing profit from running a nanotransistors reaction is about 800m/month conservatively. It's been as low as 250m recently, and as high as 1.5b. If you have the capital available to time the market there is value added production to be had from reacting the tech and not just flipping it back and forth, (which is fine too and helps normalize prices).

Reactions and component prices always lag behind raw input spikes/dips because of the amount of work involved in stopping/switching a reaction chain. People are much more likely to keep it running and hope things improve, or hold their products until prices recover. Also, reactions are fairly scalable; it's not much more work to run 6 chains as opposed to 1, so people who are already running more profitable lines and have an excess of capital can diversify into these activities. On the alliance/corp level where I expect most of the reaction chains are run this is usually seen as a high-level project for the payment of sov costs and reimbursement/capital/supercapital funding - thus there is a fair degree of "free" labor available to empty/fill silos and fuel POSs.


Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2011.02.22 18:25:00 - [296]
 

And what happens if the stockpiles are used up?


People with large piles are dumping it piece by piece onto the market (250k, 500k, 1m units etc.) but it all gets gobbled up swiftly.

Right now there is less than 1 day of tradevolume for sale. Sure, soon enough someone will drop another big pile or more.

But still the question remains what happens when the reserves are gone.

Elise DarkStar
Posted - 2011.02.22 18:30:00 - [297]
 

Originally by: Gnulpie
And what happens if the stockpiles are used up?


People with large piles are dumping it piece by piece onto the market (250k, 500k, 1m units etc.) but it all gets gobbled up swiftly.

Right now there is less than 1 day of tradevolume for sale. Sure, soon enough someone will drop another big pile or more.

But still the question remains what happens when the reserves are gone.


That's the real question: at what price will consumer demand meet the supply extracted from moons? The problem is that it's hard to identify consumer demand when it seems that speculators are still buying in.


Sig Sour
Posted - 2011.02.22 18:45:00 - [298]
 

Originally by: Gnulpie
But still the question remains what happens when the reserves are gone.

People would buy T3, faction or T1 instead. T2 prices are making BC's more and more attractive. Meta items would be used instead of T2.

Einear Lightfingers
Posted - 2011.02.22 21:00:00 - [299]
 

4 orders left under 100K pu. Total stock under 100K pu is 283,094 units. Most orders in the 100K and above orders of 10K to 35K units that would sell off fast if that is all that is left.

Tanaka Kharn
Posted - 2011.02.22 21:09:00 - [300]
 

But where does it all go?


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