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Antadark
Gallente
The Black Legionnares
Fidelas Constans
Posted - 2011.06.06 09:44:00 - [2011]
 


Marco Redwolf
Quantum Horizons
Veni Vidi Vici Alliance
Posted - 2011.06.07 13:39:00 - [2012]
 


Envoy Achates
Posted - 2011.06.07 13:39:00 - [2013]
 


I'm Primary ImPrimary
Posted - 2011.06.07 18:28:00 - [2014]
 

For awhile there I had a good run on Somer.Blink, but then something changed.

It seems like a lot of the people who would bid on 50% of the tickets have been losing out to people who only buy in with 1-2 ticket(s). At first I thought it was just my bad luck, but it seems to be happening to a lot of the other people I recognize who also frequently buy 50% of the tickets.

Earlier this morning, as I looked at the recent win history - I saw only two names in the recent winners list. How these people managed to win all of the lotteries with only 1 or 2 tickets is beyond me, but something seems to be broken.

Sure, there's a risk when bidding on 50% of the tickets - but I find it hard to believe that I should have lost my last 10 auctions with 50% of the tickets bought in them to a person who only buys 1 ticket. I can't speak for the other folks who have until recently been successful at throwing a lot of isk down, but something seems fishy.

L'amour Sauvage
Underworld Group
Posted - 2011.06.08 00:44:00 - [2015]
 

Originally by: Andrev Nox
Heyo Kirell :)

Every now and again, someone sees someone else win a string and this type of post pops up. I'm always happy to address it, though :)

Sometimes, a person (or group of people) wins several in a row because they buy a larger number of tickets to a specific blink. "Buying better odds" essentially.

Sometimes, a person wins several in a row just due to sheer blind luck.

But with over 358,089 prizes given away (not counting the 3,279 free promo giveaways), we'd need a LOOOOTTT of alts to perpetuate a scam on the scale you're suggesting :p

And, as many others have pointed out over the months, every legitimately closed blink nets us a bit of profit. We'd be terminally stupid to rig the system in any way, as it would be the one sure-fire way to kill our business forever.

If you like, you're free to evaluate our method for choosing winners. As Somer linked, the code we use to get the number is here. As you can see, we draw it from random.org. You can find their real-time statistics here and several peer-reviewed papers on the quality of their random-generator here.

Hope that helps :)

PS - Always blink on 2. We rigged 2 to win.


Personally, somedays I do 1 ticket, last couple days did 2 tickets, some nights, when the beer googles be glowin' and I see all the pretty ladies winkin', I just gotta do at least half of them. Then I'm spent and pass out and wake w/ the same words everytime, "damnit somer you put ruffies in my blink!" Then I roll over and ever so gently touch the screen, "But you were worth it baby, yes you were."
Btw, I don't recall seenin' your name much if at all at blink 'I'm Primary'.
Everyone has their systems and if you play enough as Andrev said, you'll hit your streak. And I'll be at my desk cheerin' you on, "GLORY BE! GLORY BE!" I'll shout and dance and the isk shall hail down from naked digital angels and all shall win the EVE.

Somerset Mahm
Somer's Omnibus Exploration and Reclamation
Cognitive Distortion
Posted - 2011.06.08 04:02:00 - [2016]
 

From a mathematical standpoint, playing half the tickets on ten Blinks in a row and losing all of them would happen .098% of the time, or almost a tenth of a percent. With tens of thousands of Blinks, there unfortunately must be some who come out on the losing end. We contemplated having everyone win every Blink but it didn't work very well as a business model.

That said, we've made no changes to our winner code-- it still just asks random.org for a number and displays it. We stay in business by providing a fair, honest game.

I'm sorry to hear about your run of bad luck and hope it changes for the better in your future Blinks.

xshelwynx
Posted - 2011.06.10 23:31:00 - [2017]
 

Is there any chance you could limit how many blinks someone can start? I won't point any fingers but there are people who start say 4 or 5 blinks it slows down things a bit when there's only one person who gets to choose what we blink on. I wasn't really sure where to post this so I hope I've come to the right place.

Svalinn
SOMER Blink
Cognitive Development
Posted - 2011.06.11 19:23:00 - [2018]
 

Be sure to blink today while your watching the AT and decide in channel which ship is your faveroute per match!

Winning ships will be promo'ed off! =D

Jess Maine
Caldari
Air
Intrepid Crossing
Posted - 2011.06.11 21:47:00 - [2019]
 

So I won a Cyclone, transfered the Cyclone into ISK using your service but the fulfillment is still in process, how do these transfers work because it takes up to 30mins to deposit cash but when I want to get cash from winning something I have to wait ages - or have I missed a step in the process?

Svalinn
SOMER Blink
Cognitive Development
Posted - 2011.06.11 23:55:00 - [2020]
 

Quote:
So I won a Cyclone, transfered the Cyclone into ISK using your service but the fulfillment is still in process, how do these transfers work because it takes up to 30mins to deposit cash but when I want to get cash from winning something I have to wait ages - or have I missed a step in the process?

Depositing ISK is API mediated. This means that your ISK is added to your account every 30 mins when the API pulls for every account. Pre-auth staff can bypass this by updating in almost real time.

Recieving cash, i.e: claiming your winnings, is done by Blink claims fulfillment staff (like me!) who process your claims. Generally claims take a few hours to process and usually up to a maximum of 24 hours. If a Blink staff member is on real time, they are almost instantaneous depending on if they are doing them. (and if you ask nicely :)

Mina Sulva'r
Amarr
Posted - 2011.06.12 00:19:00 - [2021]
 

Great site!
Seem like most people win 1/3 of the time, and even though my luck sucksugh, I have it up in my in-game browser more than EVE radio.

Takes some self control not to get addicted and blow all my iskies.

Valadrin
Posted - 2011.06.12 18:54:00 - [2022]
 

Great website. :P

L'amour Sauvage
Underworld Group
Posted - 2011.06.13 17:33:00 - [2023]
 

Any news on somers move? Was there delicious snacks driving? Were the Pilot restrooms clean? What vehicle/s did she drive/convoy? Did she play CB games w/ truckers and ask if gates were clear/any WT's about/state afk driving?
Do stasis webs used on Uhauls attract state troopers? Did she get an internet/phone bundle package at an incredible introductory rate?! Will there be ultra sheik eve loft parties w/ multi screens and spiced hookas?
Did the Seattleans greet her w/ hemp trinkets and coffees?!
Will Seattle change her game play? Will it? WILL IT?!

Ishina Fel
Caldari
Terra Incognita
Intrepid Crossing
Posted - 2011.06.15 18:28:00 - [2024]
 

I'd like to inquire how the latest dev blog will affect SOMER.blink...

Since it is a third party service that requires ingame cash to be sent in order to be allowed to play, this essentially means that SOMER.blink must now puarchase a $99 per year commercial license from CCP in order to keep running.

Andrev Nox
SOMER Blink
Cognitive Development
Posted - 2011.06.15 21:16:00 - [2025]
 

Originally by: Ishina Fel
I'd like to inquire how the latest dev blog will affect SOMER.blink...



Ish - we're waiting to see how the edit

Originally by: devblog

Q: Will services for in-game currency require a commercial license? A: Yes, if you require any sort of payment for your services you will need a commercial license. I've spoken to Biz Dev and this is something that might be revised, possibly to exclude ISK payments. I'll let you know as soon as I know more.



falls out. But one way or the other, we'll keep Blink running. If we have to apply for a license, we'll do so. :)

Vorre
Posted - 2011.06.16 12:45:00 - [2026]
 

im sure you will get atleast some donations to keep this running from the playerbase =) maby reward some blink credit for it if it doesnt fall under RMT category =)

Cold Flare
Posted - 2011.06.17 18:30:00 - [2027]
 

any idea on bonk prizes yet since the mark is so close? :)

Andrev Nox
SOMER Blink
Cognitive Development
Posted - 2011.06.17 20:38:00 - [2028]
 

Originally by: Cold Flare
any idea on bonk prizes yet since the mark is so close? :)


It is indeed getting close! This one flew up on us, with less than 2T to go till the 40T celebration. You guys are amazing :)

Luckily, we always plan these things in advance, so we do indeed have some awesome prizes and surprises in store for the big day. ;)

Cold Flare
Posted - 2011.06.17 20:49:00 - [2029]
 

baww I don't like surprised but fine. Hope I can win something nice :D

Sascha Yazria
Posted - 2011.06.19 16:10:00 - [2030]
 

I dunno, the "luck" is all there at the start - I've won about 150 mill - but then it seems to subside as the novelty wears off...

Hauntedpast
Gallente
Spiritus Draconis
Posted - 2011.06.19 18:30:00 - [2031]
 

I'm not sure, as a new player I had very good luck apparently. Now that I've broken the 100m boundary, my luck is really diminishing... I smell a scam.

Devil's Call
Caldari
Malicious Destruction
War Against the Manifest
Posted - 2011.06.19 21:45:00 - [2032]
 

Don't gamble:-). I've bid over 1.1b on about 40 slots, and won 0.

Ishina Fel
Caldari
Terra Incognita
Intrepid Crossing
Posted - 2011.06.20 08:09:00 - [2033]
 

My experience is the opposite.

I was constantly in the minus until after roughly 2 months, I started making a profit thanks to promo.blinks.

Titanium PIg
Posted - 2011.06.20 15:34:00 - [2034]
 

I suppose there's a reason it's called "gambling" and not "winning" :)

Viibl Triibl
Posted - 2011.06.20 16:16:00 - [2035]
 

Edited by: Viibl Triibl on 20/06/2011 16:25:16


Odds favor the house, after all.

If you buy up half of any blink you still only have a 50/50 chance of winning and the net payout never covers the net cost (over time).

Consider the Raptor:
- 2m/ticket, 8m for 4 tickets (half buy)
- 10m payout

This means that you will profit 2m half of the time. At a 50% win rate, you will play 10 times at the cost of 80m and make 50m. You may get lucky on those first 10, but you may be unlucky on the next 10. The more you play the more you'll see the economics solidify and your net loss stack up.

If you must play, the best advice I have is to focus on lower cost blinks (< 5m tickets) to get some benefit from the achievement rewards and keep yourself fresh for the (infrequent) promo blinks.

Playing is not a profitable business for most people - the math is against you. It's the same with real lotteries. People see a winner and think, "That could be me!" The reality is that it probably won't be you.

If you do have a big win you should take the ISK payout and reinvest only a small portion back in, if anything.

All of that said, I think it's a really smart business concept and the site is very well done. Credit to Somerset. I wish I could pay him to develop a few of the sites I'm working on!

Admiral Rufus
Posted - 2011.06.21 14:36:00 - [2036]
 

Am i right in thinking that if i buy 4x gtc's through your link at the moment i will be rewarded 100mil for each purchase giving me 400mil in blink credit?

Keldeena
Posted - 2011.06.21 15:35:00 - [2037]
 

Bleh - 68 pages and a total fail search feature.. I apologise to the devs if this has been requested before.

Feature Request:

Let me define the number of blink slots for a blink that I start.

eg. When I choose a raptor, let me choose a number of slots between 2 and 8. If it's 2, each slot costs 8M, if I choose 4, then each ticket is 4M - etc.

You can keep the slots options in multiples of 2 to keep the maths easy.

(Yes, I know that you can effectively do this by purchasing n tickets in any given blink, but I even though I *know* that I have a 50% chance of winning by buying half the the tickets, I *feel* like my chances are better if there are only 2 tickets and I've got one of them - and I'm sure I can't be the only person who would like this feature).

Somerset Mahm
Somer's Omnibus Exploration and Reclamation
Cognitive Distortion
Posted - 2011.06.21 15:57:00 - [2038]
 

Originally by: Admiral Rufus
Am i right in thinking that if i buy 4x gtc's through your link at the moment i will be rewarded 100mil for each purchase giving me 400mil in blink credit?


You will get an extra 100M, so if you redeem a receipt for 4, you'd get 4 * 50M + 100M bonus, or 300M total.

Goodluvins
Posted - 2011.06.21 16:43:00 - [2039]
 

If you do any research on this, you'll consistantly see that a LOT of the time, one person who 'buys' half of the tickets win on major lottos. Although occasionally some people may win something here and there, it isn't hard to formulate a guess at who makes alts and 'bids' on their own lottos further reducing the chance to win by 50% or more Rolling Eyes

Daemic
Posted - 2011.06.21 17:12:00 - [2040]
 

Ah Damn, forgot to deposit


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