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blankseplocked T3 Market... predictable?
 
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Celestine Santora
Posted - 2010.08.23 19:43:00 - [1]
 

Admittedly I'm not a big trading expert and I don't have a solid grasp on the seemingly arbitrary reasons an item will raise/lower in price. I've been trading T3 hulls for a while now and making a decent profit. All of the sudden one day, the particular ship I was trading took a drop. The sell orders went down below what I had been buying them before (of course it happens right when I decide to buy like a billion ISK worth of them).

As it stands right now I can sell my stock and only lose like 10 million, or I can wait it out and hopefully make a profit. Is the market at all predictable, though? Will the prices eventually shoot back up or just keep falling for a while? According to the price graph they've dropped this low before and recovered but I don't know if that'll happen again...

Dana Gilmour
Posted - 2010.08.23 19:54:00 - [2]
 

They will rise.

Bernard Schuyler
Posted - 2010.08.23 20:01:00 - [3]
 

I don't really have an answer for you, because I don't know why the price has dropped. It may simply be a matter of oversupply?

Since you say Hulls, I assume you are using the Market? I noted a few T3 production houses selling fitted T3s to spec (well, with a set of subsystems and rigs anyway) on contract, advertising on the forums.

Assuming the volume moving is on the lower end, it wouldn't take too much to mess with Market prices.

Mike TheMiner
Posted - 2010.08.23 21:03:00 - [4]
 

sell now tbh, as more people get into it, the prices are going to keep going down for the forseeable future.

Quantessa
Posted - 2010.08.23 21:49:00 - [5]
 

Edited by: Quantessa on 23/08/2010 21:51:22
Edited by: Quantessa on 23/08/2010 21:49:20
For a commodity like T3 ship hulls there is a certain amount of predictability.

Price will fluctuate based on supply and demand. Raw supply and demand effects are softened by stockpilers.

So you have a model like this:

T3 ship manufacturers (long term commitment means that this will be a fairly constant rate of supply) generate new hulls.

Sellers (which may be the manufacturers or they may get someone else to market their wares) will release to the market with an eye to getting a good price. Impatient sellers (the minority most likely) will sell to Buy Orders or put up a Sell Order substantially under the market. That gives them volume in exchange for profit.

Stockpilers will release stock when the market is high. Or list it above market on long Sell Orders.

That's where T3 hulls come from.

Pod pilots who like to fly T3 will buy new ship hulls when they lose one, when they first become able to fly them or when they want to expand their fleets. T3 are great for small fleet or solo pvp, for wormholes, and for pve. They are also one of the most viable nullsec pve ships for operating in hostile space (cloak, unscannable, immune to bubbles). So this demand depends upon how fashionable T3 ships are for pve and how many are being killed by players or rats/sleepers.

It's generally quiet now, just ramping up to a more warlike period. It's also August and holiday time. It's also mid-patch.

The other buyers of T3 are stockpilers. Stockpilers have a lot of good options aside from T3 so are likely to invest in PI and so on. This thread may encourage a couple of people to stockpile T3 hulls of course.

That's where T3 hulls go to.

There are other factors like the movement of corps into wormhole space, escalations of violence in wormholes, burnout of key personnel and so on. If T3 Frigates make it into this Winter's patch as expected then there will be a run on T3 materials which will push prices up.

But in answer to your question T3, as with almost anything in Eve, is predictable. Of course our predictions could be wrong, investing in commodities is almost always a gamble.

PureMurder
Posted - 2010.08.24 14:42:00 - [6]
 

What makes T3 immune to bubbles? Just curious, ty.

Baghtar
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
Posted - 2010.08.24 14:46:00 - [7]
 

Originally by: PureMurder
What makes T3 immune to bubbles? Just curious, ty.
The interdiction nullifier subsystem.

SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
Posted - 2010.08.24 19:27:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: PureMurder
What makes T3 immune to bubbles? Just curious, ty.


Speed of production... You can make an alarming amount of Subsystems in a day. Sure the Cruises are a different story but you can pump out subsystems like crazy... Basically the bubble never gets large enough to become noticeable on subsystems.

The cruiser itself takes time to build in big numbers but costs a FORTUNE to do so.. The "Fortune" comes from - Melted Nanoribbons - mostly.. At the moment my sheet is telling me one Tengu with five subsystems costs - 283,058,490.49 ISK
The Melted Nanoribbons part of that cost - 210,791,282.02 ISK

Melted Nanoribbons make up 74.5% of the cost of a working Tengu, this is not really good conditions to be building a bubble. It all hinges on one product which anyone can go get.

Raid'En
Posted - 2010.08.24 23:15:00 - [9]
 

Originally by: SencneS

Melted Nanoribbons make up 74.5% of the cost of a working Tengu, this is not really good conditions to be building a bubble. It all hinges on one product which anyone can go get.

that much o_O
it explain why it's the only thing valuable on sleepers, but it's so strange that CCP doesn't try to tweak numbers to change this

Halborn
Celtic Technologies Inc.
Posted - 2010.08.24 23:19:00 - [10]
 

You have two choices.

You can risk selling now and make a loss of around 10 million or you can wait and analyse the market and watch to see if it rises.

I dont really know too much about T3 market however when it comes to situations where it falls below your price I ask myself
1) do I need the money right away from the investment
2) Can I risk making a larger loss.

If you can handle a bit more loss and dont need the cash you may want to risk it and that could potentially bring about a profit if the market recovers.

This is where trading comes into its own the risky decisions that could make or break you.

Exploriosoette
Posted - 2010.08.25 02:42:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: PureMurder
What makes T3 immune to bubbles? Just curious, ty.


Speed of production... You can make an alarming amount of Subsystems in a day. Sure the Cruises are a different story but you can pump out subsystems like crazy... Basically the bubble never gets large enough to become noticeable on subsystems.

The cruiser itself takes time to build in big numbers but costs a FORTUNE to do so.. The "Fortune" comes from - Melted Nanoribbons - mostly.. At the moment my sheet is telling me one Tengu with five subsystems costs - 283,058,490.49 ISK
The Melted Nanoribbons part of that cost - 210,791,282.02 ISK

Melted Nanoribbons make up 74.5% of the cost of a working Tengu, this is not really good conditions to be building a bubble. It all hinges on one product which anyone can go get.


LOL, only on MD do some posters misinterpret 'bubbles' as an economic bubble instead of warp disruption bubbles. Laughing

Liang Nuren
Posted - 2010.08.25 06:15:00 - [12]
 

Originally by: Exploriosoette
LOL, only on MD do some posters misinterpret 'bubbles' as an economic bubble instead of warp disruption bubbles. Laughing


I laughed about that too. Razz I also want to say that it takes a stupid amount of skills to make T3s. But, you may be about to see another producer. Wink

-Liang


 

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