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Ender2006
Aliastra
Posted - 2010.08.13 01:40:00 - [1]
 

So.. a few days ago I made some price predictions for PI products solely based on supply side cost analysis . br a href= http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1366072 target= _blank http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1366072 /a Prior Predictions

How did they hold up?
Well, actually quite a bit better than flipping a coin. I've made quite a bundle off of the movements as a result and hopefully so have you. Surprisingly a few were pretty badly off so I'd be interesting in hearing discussion on those cases. Supply side analysis is certainly only a fraction of the pricing basis for these products. As a treat I'm also presenting the current market pictures. If you make a bundle off this information be sure to share Laughing

http://imgur.com/rCoR9.jpg

http://imgur.com/v6NnV.jpg

http://imgur.com/akirO.jpg

This weeks sure investment bets include:

Construction blocks
Consumer electronics
Fertilizer
Livestock
Miniature Electronics

And ones that aren't quite as obvious but seem to be moving along nicely:
Mechanical Parts
Rocket Fuel
Transmitter

And ones I don't even pretend to understand
Synthetic Oil
Silicate Glass
Nanites

Image changed to a URL - Adida


Mini Tee
Posted - 2010.08.13 07:20:00 - [2]
 

Hi, not wanting to hijack your thread, but I'm bored so I took a look at the items myself, from a purely technical pov:

Construction blocks
See them maxing out at 4800-5000 right now, rebuy points at 4000-3500

Consumer electronics
Already broke out of it's triangle, target near previous highs around 3500, re-entry points around 2500

Fertilizer
Hasn't broken out of congestion yet, when it breaks above 2200 good point to buy, target at 3000-3200, stoploss 1700

Livestock
Already passed the sweet spot to buy at 1900, now heading to 3000 probably, new entry chances around 2200?

Miniature Electronics
Buypoint was at 3200.. target 5000, re-entry 3800?

Mechanical Parts
Moving nicely indeed, possible re-entry points around 5600 or so.

Rocket Fuel
Entry 6000, target 8700-9000, stoploss 4800

Transmitter
Very sloppy, maybe play the range between 2500 and 3500

Synthetic Oil
See a decent entry coming around 2700, stoploss at 1800, target somewhere at 4700

Silicate Glass
Seems to be rolling lower for now, don't see a buy.

Nanites
Don't bother =D


Just my views from technical analysis Cool

Isis Ra
Posted - 2010.08.13 15:33:00 - [3]
 

Thanks for this analysis. I am finding Mech Parts to be steadily increasing, similar to Coolant recently. Be interesting to see what happens over the weekend.

Mazen Alane
Posted - 2010.08.13 15:48:00 - [4]
 

RF is funny. It still is way underpriced compared to production costs so i guess the stock might not be bottomless afterall?

Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari
Sane Industries Inc.
Posted - 2010.08.13 16:10:00 - [5]
 

Originally by: Mazen Alane
RF is funny. It still is way underpriced compared to production costs so i guess the stock might not be bottomless afterall?

Quite a few of the T2 missiles only have 2-5 days worth of stock up on sale in Jita, so the producers will have to buy at some point in the very near future.

I suspect their heads are in the sand, hoping rocket fuel will fall.

Ender2006
Aliastra
Posted - 2010.08.13 16:20:00 - [6]
 

Edited by: Ender2006 on 13/08/2010 16:25:25
rocket fuel is indeed increasing despite me thinking there was a lot of leftover inventory to be cleared before we saw any movement. keep in mind though a lot of this was due to a huge 5m unit purchase on 08/06/10 . Granted it won't ever be sold that low again but unloading any inventory you purchase will face stiff competition from whoever this buyer was. Looks like demand is around 200k/day outside of trader manipulations so that's a significant chunk sitting on the sidelines

Edit: meh, I decided to go with the trend anyway and bought 0.5m units. - price spike to 9400isk/unit. lets hope those missile suppliers have to start raising their prices and buying inventory again soon.

Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari
Sane Industries Inc.
Posted - 2010.08.13 16:34:00 - [7]
 

Originally by: Ender2006
rocket fuel is indeed increasing despite me thinking there was a lot of leftover inventory to be cleared before we saw any movement. keep in mind though a lot of this was due to a huge 5m unit purchase on 08/06/10 . Granted it won't ever be sold that low again but unloading any inventory you purchase will face stiff competition from whoever this buyer was. Looks like demand is around 200k/day outside of trader manipulations so that's a significant chunk sitting on the sidelines

Think we can assume that guy is a trader who knows the value of rocket fuel and won't be so skittish as to dump below production prices.

Originally by: Ender2006
Edit: meh, I decided to go with the trend anyway and bought 0.5m units. - price spike to 9400isk/unit. lets hope those missile suppliers have to start raising their prices and buying inventory again soon.

The orders 3/4 days ago were mostly my corp and me, which means the likely candidate for the 536k order at 15.8k is the guy who bought 5M units. That being pretty much the price I'm expecting to sell for.

Mrs Kleo
Posted - 2010.08.13 23:25:00 - [8]
 

Mechanical parts is looking pretty good. Its had pretty steady growth for about 2 weeks now. It may end up like coolant.

pmchem
Minmatar
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2010.08.14 00:02:00 - [9]
 

Originally by: Mrs Kleo
Mechanical parts is looking pretty good. Its had pretty steady growth for about 2 weeks now. It may end up like coolant.


Yeah, POS fuels and POS fuel ingredients are all climbing as people's stockpiles run dry. Robo (CE), EU, Toxic, etc.

Julian Koll
The Kollektive
Posted - 2010.08.14 02:05:00 - [10]
 

agreed. i threw some isk they way of your predictions. lets see how that turns out.

Scott McClellan
Forum Posters Anonymous
Posted - 2010.08.14 03:50:00 - [11]
 

Synthetic oil was manipulated pretty aggressively by speculators, there's gigantic volume spikes at a few points throughout the last week corresponding with the price jump (people most likely bought up all the sell orders and re-listed maybe throwing some higher buys up as well.)

IMO Consumer Electronics is going through the same thing, judging by the huge spike today. I'd expect both to fall back to their regular amounts (CE at 1800-2400, SO at 2750-3250) rather quickly as the "pumpers" quickly dump their stock. Not to mention a lot more speculators might have dumped their CE when it spiked, so I
would expect it to fall faster than SO. There's a lot of money in that game and if you ride the wave you can probably make some profit in it, but you'll be at the mercy of the person pulling the strings.

Kudos to your work though, nice charts.

Vaal Erit
Science and Trade Institute
Posted - 2010.08.14 08:48:00 - [12]
 

Cool pictures. As for nanites, yeah I am confused as well. I think that when PI was introduced making nanite repair paste was one of the first products known so everyone was hyper sensitive to it and bought huge stockpiles. Nanites being one of the ingredients in nanite repair paste, nanites are also used in another recipe but it isn't in much demand either. I root for nanites to eventually get to 4-7k like a lot of the other P2s but I think stockpiles of nanite repair paste and the relative ease it is to create nanites in high sec will make the recovery fairly slow. At least that is my guess, I wouldn't invest in nanites though, far better options out there for playing the market.

Walmatar
Posted - 2010.08.14 10:31:00 - [13]
 

From that list, I'd look at investing in consumer electronics, mech parts, and also robotics.

Mech parts good to at least 10k.
CE to 3.5k
Robotics to 35k - possibly higher.

Market is burning through stocks fast.

Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
Posted - 2010.08.14 10:52:00 - [14]
 


The problem with nanites is the production chain for paste seems to be borked, because it's many times more expensive to make than it used to be available on the market pre-patch. I'm sure somebody at CCP got the decimal point in the wrong place. Even if we assumed they wanted the price to rise, which seems likely, the worse case rise on any other former NPC goods is much less.

JitaPriceChecker2
Posted - 2010.08.14 17:24:00 - [15]
 

Edited by: JitaPriceChecker2 on 14/08/2010 17:26:31
Edited by: JitaPriceChecker2 on 14/08/2010 17:26:11

No free pro tip from me afterall.

porth0s
Posted - 2010.08.14 18:49:00 - [16]
 

There were some very large price moves for advanced PI mats yesterday. On several items (broadcast node, organic mortar app, sterile conduits..) there are now more buy orders than sell orders. Either someone is a really big buyer or it smells like manipulation.

Julian Koll
The Kollektive
Posted - 2010.08.14 18:54:00 - [17]
 

i have not touched P4 mats myself, but i can see them picking up as the pre-patch pos mods are being consumed and production of these become more interesting.

Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics
K162
Posted - 2010.08.14 22:51:00 - [18]
 

P4 consumption was pretty terrible since so many mods/towers were made during the reproc opportunity that the demand for P4 to make more was pretty low. Some of those stocks are starting to run out tho so more and more of the batteries/towers hitting market are made by P4 rather than the reproc deal. I know I've burned through a good chunk of my guns and I made like 6k of the suckers.

Kind of amusing that so many panic sold at terrible prices a couple weeks ago. PI mats are back on course to where most people were saying they would go. Still another 6-9 maybe even 12 months before guidance systems stockpiles run out and we see more realistic (30k?) prices for them though.

The marketmagicmaker
Posted - 2010.08.18 13:29:00 - [19]
 

Couldnt be bothered with in depth market analysis, Simple application of common sense seems to have worked though.

Pos fuels were always going to be a winner. Theres always a constant demand, very easily produced and market ready using single planet chains to mininmize micromanagement and importing mats. Since PI day one ive made coolant, enriched uranium and mech parts in the losec system I sometimes put a research POS up in anyways. Looks like it paid off.

Jobs a goodun :)



 

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