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Victor Vision
Amarr
Central Intelligence Service
Posted - 2010.03.29 11:24:00 - [1]
 

Finally 0.0 will become live again on thursday this week.

IT vs NC, as has been confirmed.

Should cause some nice spikes in demand, should it not?


Any guesses on how much mineral prices will rise? Or t2 items?

SetrakDark
DarkCorp Citizens Holdings
DarkCorp Citizens
Posted - 2010.03.29 12:09:00 - [2]
 

Negligible effect on minerals

Dys, Pro, and Tech down short from stockpile liquidations

Tech up long if moons and hi-sec routes are contested for an extended period

Phosphorus Palladium
Posted - 2010.03.29 12:34:00 - [3]
 

Interesting, thanks for this short analysis.

prostuclasei
Posted - 2010.03.29 12:43:00 - [4]
 

The Market is not ready at the moment. Please try again later.

IT happened?

Victor Vision
Amarr
Central Intelligence Service
Posted - 2010.03.29 12:56:00 - [5]
 

Edited by: Victor Vision on 29/03/2010 12:58:37
Originally by: prostuclasei
The Market is not ready at the moment. Please try again later.

IT happened?


Well, Molle pretty much publicly stated that the attack on the NC will happen on thursday. So IT is going to happen, I guess. Judging by his speech he approximates the war to last at least 6 months, more likely a year or longer.

Vahdrok Nyrus
OX Syndicate Shipyards
Posted - 2010.03.29 13:50:00 - [6]
 

Publicly asserted that the attack will launch on april fools. I can't be the only one who sees this...

Taram Caldar
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
Warped Aggression
Posted - 2010.03.29 17:43:00 - [7]
 

Edited by: Taram Caldar on 29/03/2010 17:48:24
It's not just IT if my sources are correct.
Rumor has it the southern coalition (Atlas & Co) is heading north (was unaware of IT... could be april fools on IT's part) and GS is going to strike out against some region of the south. Err... sorry... Solodrakbanwhatever is going to strike against some region of the south.

If rumors are true it's going to be a very big war. How big an impact on the market it will have will depend on how long and drawn out it is.

I tend to agree though.... my guess is it will be bloody but short and not have a huge impact.

Frenden Dax
Dax Acquisitions
Posted - 2010.03.29 17:53:00 - [8]
 

I've been told that deployment orders for various alliances were being issued long before Molle made his speech. War is coming, but as for market impact you won't see any for a while.

For mineral prices to even twitch you would need to see something like several large capfleets go bewm in quick succession. Not saying that won't happen, but it won't happen right off the bat or all at the same time.

nether void
Caldari
Brotherhood of Suicidal Priests
R.A.G.E
Posted - 2010.03.29 18:27:00 - [9]
 

Edited by: nether void on 29/03/2010 18:27:09
As important will be how the nodes handle large battles. Dominion has sorta stalled a lot of fighting, especially with caps. Some nodes go to crap with just 300 on the field. With a war of this magnitude, 6-700 in a system will be a regular sized battle. If the nodes lag out at 300, I wouldn't expect lots of cap fights, TBH.

Unless CCP has 'fixed' something since 2-4 weeks ago.

Kryhane
Gallente
New Eden Experiments
Posted - 2010.03.29 18:36:00 - [10]
 

Most of the invasion forces will be buying in Jita and surrounding area and moving the ships to staging points. Seems like most alliances are favoring only moving capitals and just buying all the smaller stuff rather than moving it.

Expect to see an upswing in those ships and related mods starting Wednesday.

Dagny Bronstein
Posted - 2010.03.30 05:45:00 - [11]
 

Edited by: Dagny Bronstein on 30/03/2010 15:56:14
Originally by: Taram Caldar
and GS is going to strike out against some region of the south. Err... sorry... Solodrakbanwhatever is going to strike against some region of the south.

I was under the impression that Darius had back-pedaled on that one:
Originally by: Darius JOHNSON
So yesterday I was under a bit of pressure to say WHAT we'd be doing despite the fact that there was chaos everywhere and I wasn't really ready to do so because I hadn't talked to the right people. Today Atlas and AAA breathe a collective sigh of relief as I assure you that we are going to buckle down and remain in CR. This means moving to CR. This means moving to 9-4. The bulk of your assets should remain in NPC space, but you should have a couple of ships for jewing and ops in 9-4. In support of this the following is occurring:
[...]
Within a very short period of time the south is going to make a run for the NC. There are portions of the NC I really don't give a **** about but TCF, MM and RZR have ALWAYS helped us when we needed them to. ESPECIALLY TCF. We are in a better position to support them in CR than we would be in the south. We may still send some people on road trips but the determinant factor in this decision was TCF's request for assistance. The south would be simply too far and ourselves too ineffective given the number of hostiles in the area.
[...]


... but maybe that's just what he would like the rest of EVE to think or he did change his mind again ...

edit: for those interested in the publicly known outline for the IT vs NC thing: IT TS briefing & QA

destinationunreachable
Hello Kitty Fanclub
Posted - 2010.03.30 07:43:00 - [12]
 

The effect of the (possible) war will be neglectable.
First of all, there hasn't been a major conflict (besides the providence war) since months. All involved alliances and their players are fully stocked and have wads of cash. Low T1 prices means lots of replacement ships in hangars.
Loosing 50 BS/day (which will not happen 7 days a week) will be only around 10b in value, that needs to be resupplied, which is for Jita (which is anyway the closest tradehub) next to nothing. I assume even the massive insurance fraud a month ago was consuming more.
Due to the dominion lag, I doubt, that we will see too many cap fleets being used and lost. Give it one (being lost) per month with 50 caps, we are talking about a value of 100b. Considering caps are normally alliance supplied and the full stacks, there will be no desperate re-stock going on. Even then it will not move the market.

We will see things changing if the lag situation changes. Due to the current game mechanics a node becomes unusable when the grid is already full (some 100s) and a massive amount of people jump into it. The "new arrivals" are unable to load grid, but are targetable and destroyable. So the winner is, who is in a system first. The other won't therefore risk to jump/bridge into the system.
Until this problem is solved, the conflict will be very low intensity, low risk and low losses.
Things will completely change once the (since dominion introduced) lag is fixed by CCP and fleet battles of 600 vs 600 are possible again. At this stage we will see really huge losses (I assume several titan kills), with the initial demand picking up (re-supply) and creating a long-term higher demand (re-stock).

Sjarana
Posted - 2010.03.30 11:11:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: destinationunreachable
The effect of the (possible) war will be neglectable.



Originally by: destinationunreachable
Loosing 50 BS/day (which will not happen 7 days a week) will be only around 10b in value, that needs to be resupplied, which is for Jita (which is anyway the closest tradehub) next to nothing.



There are still major battles going on and given the losses inflicted/sustained, I believe the losses are and will be much higher than you state in your post. Aside of that I do agree with you that the impact in the beginning will be limited given the sheer size of the market in Eve. For refenrence of battles that still occur, I inserted some links after searching through some KB's.

Week overview last week
http://www.eve-razor.com/killboard/?a=kills&w=12&y=2010

Week overview week 9
http://www.eve-razor.com/killboard/?a=kills&w=9&y=2010

Battle Summary for SR-KBB, 2010-03-02 18:45 - 20:44
http://www.eve-razor.com/killboard/?a=kill_related&kll_id=265386

destinationunreachable
Hello Kitty Fanclub
Posted - 2010.03.30 12:16:00 - [14]
 

Sjarana, I meant those numbers in addition to the regular losses.
The cited battles are not really major ones with only 200vs200 and a dozen destroyed caps, thats the regular losses, that happen in 0.0 (even includes the occasional titan kill).
If you take as an example Morsus Mihi (kb.morsus-mihi.org) and go through the weekly summary:
in peace times they seem to destroy between 50 and 100b per week and loose around 30-100b (both excluding spikes), so thats around 360-450b per month, which needs to get replaced.
If you go back you see that during the Delve II war (starting at around week 20) you see occasional spikes going up beyond 400b per week, mostly accounting to super cap kills in cap battles. Otherwise I would guesstimate a increase of maybe 20-30% (someone supply me numbers ;-) ) in items, which need to get resupplied.
I assume one would see the same with all other major alliances (I looked at MM because I originally wanted to investigate the m-o stats). Considering we have several alliances of this size in a conflict one could expect low increase in demand. But due to the current lag situation I doubt, that they will risk a lot of expensive ships.
So with a low intensity conflict we might see a mildly increased demand, but due to the amount of alliances/people that are rumored to take part we would probably see an interesting impact on the mineral market once the lag is removed (maybe with the Tyrannis release).

Please feel free, if someone wants to run the numbers on how much of a market share such a conflict would have.

Aluin Chaput
Caldari
Sacred Templars
Black Star Alliance
Posted - 2010.03.30 15:21:00 - [15]
 

Originally by: Frenden Dax
For mineral prices to even twitch you would need to see something like several large capfleets go bewm in quick succession. Not saying that won't happen, but it won't happen right off the bat or all at the same time.


Well if it winds up being as spectacular as rumors are, good chance we will see many capital fleets popping, plus an ungodly number of supercaps.

How many dead titans does it take to get the ISK to rise? Laughing

Sjarana
Posted - 2010.03.30 19:56:00 - [16]
 

Destinationunreachable, you are right.
I misread your numbers for the total losses. The numbers you posted in your reply are about what I expected, and have seen in 0.0.

So let's just wait and see what IT and friends can bring to the table. Drakebansolo will join the frey I hope. Should stir things up a bit. But we need pretty awesome events for a protracted period of time if we want to see some significant impacts on the market.

HarveyBirdman Esquire
Posted - 2010.03.30 22:12:00 - [17]
 

Edited by: HarveyBirdman Esquire on 30/03/2010 22:14:50
I think some of yall are missing the significant impact regular raids will have on mining/ratting in 0.0. There's a big difference between the occasional ganksquad roaming through blue space and a big honking army of reds running regular ops into your major ratting/mining zones (which they can find easily thanks to the indices and dotlan) during your prime time. Even if they don't get kills, you'll still be called up for defense fleets or forced to sit in station/safespot until they bugger off.

Sure, a good number of 0.0 denizens have money alts either in empire or elsewhere, but plenty of people keep all their alts (or their only char) out in 0.0 so that they can run 10/10s or do pirate missions, and are used to using their main for support. It'll hit people in the wallet.

It also makes a difference for the attackers, as a large number of them will be blowing stuff up or sitting around waiting for an op in a basing system, rather than hanging out at home and ratting during corp downtime.

So, supply will go down. Eventually. After all, stockpiles are pretty huge. And while people will still have boatloads of isk, it's unlikely that they'll be patient about getting gear. And since this war requires a lot of players to move very far away from their production alts/facilities/stations/stockpiles, it's unlikely that they'll be willing to roadtrip all their gear halfway across the galaxy when they can just buy stuff off of Jita.


Finally, expect a reduction in moon goo supply, especially El HeyZeus Technetium, since tech moons will probably be a top target for us invaders. So that'll really put a wrinkle in the system.

edit: On a personal note, it's not just IT hitting El Gran Norte, it's the whole SC. So, like, don't give em all the credit when everyone is jumping on the ****train.

Rosenoern
Posted - 2010.03.30 23:41:00 - [18]
 

I predict big push on all fronts after devblog.

If the plan for killing pay-out on supercapitals is approved by "The Almighty" it will be a lot more expensive for anyone to retake/invade systems after May 18th.

Bonebreaker Monk
Posted - 2010.03.31 11:13:00 - [19]
 

As a nice starter: Technetium jumped from around 500-600 to 4400+ in some hours today Cool

Baillif
AQUILA INC
Posted - 2010.03.31 14:39:00 - [20]
 

Prices of Guardians are jumping as well. You can expect tech, morphite, and some of the other moon goo prices to jump in response to both the war effort, the dev blog from yesterday, and the prepatch surge in building in preparation for Tyrannis to finally turn things around economically.

Caelum Bootes
Posted - 2010.03.31 22:07:00 - [21]
 

Good old morphite... Made ~20 B ISK under 24 hours Cool

War is going on, fleets are being moved.

About 940 capital ships against Norther Coalition.

People stopped mining.

People stopped ratting.

This is IT! Cool

Tips for noobs - find attacking force massing systems in lowsec - supply them with jump fuel. They will buy all of it. Supply them with fighters, supply them with capital mods, supply them with XL ammo, they WILL BUY IT!


ITSAssassin
Red Bull Manufacturing
Posted - 2010.04.01 02:07:00 - [22]
 

Originally by: Rosenoern
I predict big push on all fronts after devblog.

If the plan for killing pay-out on supercapitals is approved by "The Almighty" it will be a lot more expensive for anyone to retake/invade systems after May 18th.


This is just brilliant. Insurance reduction GREATLY increases the amount of ISK required to take back some space. If any major alliance/coalition wishes to take over space with their might, now is the time.....

Victor Vision
Amarr
Central Intelligence Service
Posted - 2010.04.01 22:11:00 - [23]
 

Edited by: Victor Vision on 01/04/2010 22:31:05

IT has begun in X-7OMU (Pure Blind).

With around 850 people in that system atm, there is bound to be either a node crash, or some shredded spaceships, or both.

The closest high sec system to X-7OMU is Torrinos (Lonetrek).
So I predict Lontrek will be the first region with rising prices due to the war.

Jita is a bit far away (12 Jumps from Torrinos, 17 from X-7OMU), so may be less effected by rising demand for war related materials, at least for now.

LonTas 5
Minmatar
Posted - 2010.04.01 22:48:00 - [24]
 

Edited by: LonTas 5 on 01/04/2010 22:48:39
If you plan on shuttling materials, at least use something small like the Iteron 4. Only an idiot would go out in a highly disputed area with a cargohold full of precious materials, no turret hardpoints, low warp strentgh, and about 1 billion ISK sitting pretty in your cargo. Now, to adress your question, Tech II modifiers, like the sensor arrays, will go up once the planets are held, as patrol ships to put the people who lost battleships and need to w cool down. Since the number of exhumers and mining barges should stay steady around NONE AT ALL, the prices of minerals will go up once the heavy capital fights start. Try with the new modules, wait until later for the minerals, and trade plenty of tech 2 devices once the price shoots up. BUT DONT HOLD SHIPS> YOU WILL BE HUNTED>Shocked

HarveyBirdman Esquire
Posted - 2010.04.02 04:50:00 - [25]
 

Originally by: Victor Vision
Edited by: Victor Vision on 01/04/2010 22:31:05

IT has begun in X-7OMU (Pure Blind).

With around 850 people in that system atm, there is bound to be either a node crash, or some shredded spaceships, or both.

The closest high sec system to X-7OMU is Torrinos (Lonetrek).
So I predict Lontrek will be the first region with rising prices due to the war.

Jita is a bit far away (12 Jumps from Torrinos, 17 from X-7OMU), so may be less effected by rising demand for war related materials, at least for now.


Uh, Jita to Aunenen is six jumps, and a JF can make x-7 from aunenen in one hop with standard skills. And that's only one of several possible lowsec systems within easy reach of Jita that are also one hop away from x-7. Don't expect to make big monies shipping stuff to x-7, especially if you're using jumpgates.

Or rather, try, by all means. We definitely don't regularly catch blockade runners with our gate camps, no siree.

-Harvey Birdman, Attorney at Law!

ITSAssassin
Red Bull Manufacturing
Posted - 2010.04.02 10:57:00 - [26]
 

Mineral price changes (within the last 48hrs):

Megacyte: 2100-->2660/unit
Morphite: 4884-->5594/unit
Nocxium: 79---->92.5/unit
Zydrine: 1100-->1348/unit

Prices based in Jita.

Anyone who says this is not because of the IT war is just lying to themselves. IT invades, and all this goes WAYYYYYY UPPPP lol. Interesting imo.

ITSAssassin

Lord Arbalest
Northstar Cabal
Important Internet Spaceship League
Posted - 2010.04.02 11:23:00 - [27]
 

Originally by: ITSAssassin
Mineral price changes (within the last 48hrs):

Megacyte: 2100-->2660/unit
Morphite: 4884-->5594/unit
Nocxium: 79---->92.5/unit
Zydrine: 1100-->1348/unit

Prices based in Jita.

Anyone who says this is not because of the IT war is just lying to themselves. IT invades, and all this goes WAYYYYYY UPPPP lol. Interesting imo.

ITSAssassin


That instead could be due to speculation with the upcoming changes to minerals/mining/blah blah announced in some dev blog somewhere. The gist being mining would becoming profitable again - suggesting ore/minerals would be drastically overhauled in terms of how much comes from certain EVE activities.

Caelum Bootes
Posted - 2010.04.02 11:24:00 - [28]
 

Edited by: Caelum Bootes on 02/04/2010 11:24:59
Originally by: ITSAssassin
Mineral price changes (within the last 48hrs):

Megacyte: 2100-->2660/unit
Morphite: 4884-->5594/unit
Nocxium: 79---->92.5/unit
Zydrine: 1100-->1348/unit

Prices based in Jita.

Anyone who says this is not because of the IT war is just lying to themselves. IT invades, and all this goes WAYYYYYY UPPPP lol. Interesting imo.

ITSAssassin
Everything is going up... All of my trading basket items went up overnight and they are going up...

Expect T2 prices to explode as technetium moons (last night four) gets hit...


 

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