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blankseplocked Insurance Fraud Sweepstake - Claim Your Prizes!
 
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RAW23
Posted - 2009.12.31 01:47:00 - [1]
 

Edited by: RAW23 on 18/01/2010 02:01:30
Edited by: RAW23 on 03/01/2010 11:39:24
Prize Fund Current Total: Minimum 125 mil - keep the bets coming!

Here's how it will work. Pick a date (any date) that you think is the most likely day on which insurance fraud will cease to be profitable on an Apocalypse (built from an ME 50 BPO) with build costs based on the average of Jita buy and sell prices on that day (buy and sell prices will be taken as those reported by Utemetsu in his Morning Report).* Post your chosen date here and send me 5mil to buy your (virtual) ticket. The person who is closest takes everything that has been bet, plus some small collectable item that I will purchase and put up as an additional prize (I'm currently trying to get hold of a bookmark from Jovian space - in any case, this prize will have a minimum value of 100mil). You can buy as many tickets as you want. In the event of two tickets being equidistant from the actual date, the prize will be split evenly.


Whilst you can send isk and reserve your dates immediately, the terms and conditions will not be fixed until 24 hours have passed from the time of the original post (just in case anyone wants to give some feedback, correct any misconceptions I have, or demand that a third party hold the isk).


*Assuming its still running. If not, the prices will be calculated from the (mean) average cost per unit of the highest 1 billion isk worth of each mineral on buy orders and the average cost per unit of the lowest billion on sell orders in Jita (these two averages then being averaged).

Neme Nishta
Posted - 2009.12.31 04:14:00 - [2]
 

Sounds like fun.

February 10, 2010

Isk sent.

Tyreal
Gallente
Devouring the Teaboar
Posted - 2009.12.31 07:06:00 - [3]
 

This guy and his alt sound legit.

Rolling Eyes

Darien Rothschild
Posted - 2009.12.31 07:38:00 - [4]
 

Edited by: Darien Rothschild on 31/12/2009 07:38:34
Let me make sure I get your math, not that I'm actualy going to send money. You want a prediction of the date that:
((total value of all Jita Apocalypse buy orders + total value of all Jita Apocalypse sell orders) / total number of market orders for an Apoc in Jita) >=787500000

You do realize how completely easy it is to manipulate that figure, right?

RAW23
Posted - 2009.12.31 09:52:00 - [5]
 

Edited by: RAW23 on 31/12/2009 09:54:46
Edited by: RAW23 on 31/12/2009 09:54:19
Edited by: RAW23 on 31/12/2009 09:54:03
Edited by: RAW23 on 31/12/2009 09:53:19
Originally by: Darien Rothschild
Edited by: Darien Rothschild on 31/12/2009 07:38:34
Let me make sure I get your math, not that I'm actualy going to send money. You want a prediction of the date that:
((total value of all Jita Apocalypse buy orders + total value of all Jita Apocalypse sell orders) / total number of market orders for an Apoc in Jita) >=787500000

You do realize how completely easy it is to manipulate that figure, right?


No, I'm afraid you haven't got it right. I want a prediction of the date at which it will cost more to build a single apoc, based on the mineral prices in Jita, than you will receive if you platinum insure the ship and self destruct it. This figure would be possible to manipulate but the cost of doing so would far exceed the value of any prize fund, I expect. I would be surprised if more than 20-30 tickets are purchased, making the prize fund 100-150 mil (plus the 100 or so mil I will spend on an additional prize). You would need to invest at least several billion, and the figure will probably be closer to 10 billion, in order to manipulate all the T1 mineral prices in Jita by even a small amount. If you wanted to do this today, well, I haven't done the maths but to single handedly push both buy and sell orders for all the minerals up by 5-10% would be, shall we say, ****ing expensive Shocked.


Quote:

This guy and his alt sound legit.


LOL - Tyrael, have a look at my investment thread, examine the profits I make eacg week and then come back and tell me it would be worth my while to scam 100 or so million (which amounts to 1% of my weekly profits in a good week Cool). This is really meant to do two things: 1) be a bit of fun; 2) use the wisdom of crowds / the market to provide some insight into how long insurance fraud is likely to be a viable business.

Ji Sama
Caldari
Tash-Murkon Prime Industries
Posted - 2009.12.31 11:32:00 - [6]
 

I will put ONE THOUSAND ISK on december the 21st 2012!

Hamano Walker
Posted - 2009.12.31 11:46:00 - [7]
 

Edited by: Hamano Walker on 31/12/2009 11:46:19
(ignore me, deleted)

RAW23
Posted - 2009.12.31 11:51:00 - [8]
 

Edited by: RAW23 on 31/12/2009 12:06:16
Originally by: Hamano Walker
Edited by: Hamano Walker on 31/12/2009 11:46:19
(ignore me, deleted)


Your reply seems to have disappeared while I was answering it, but I can at least give you the morning report link.

http://blog.erikmumm.com/?page_id=5

I'm happy to address the issues you raised if you want. On the main one, I don't have any problem with someone trying to manipulate the markets to win this competition - that would be a lot of fun to watch. I'm just not sure anyone will put in that kind of massive financial commitment in order to win a couple of hundred million.

Edit - LOL, sorry Darien/Hamano but I think your identity has been revealed Wink.

On the question of averages, I suggested taking just the top 1 bil isk worth of buy orders and the bottom bil of sell orders so as to avoid getting a figure that will include the outlying orders in the mean. Also, anyone pushing these orders around will find that the split between buys and sells is likely to be much smaller than the amount they would need to move the market (at least at the moment) in order to win. I think changing the 1st bil of buy and sell orders on each mineral by the required amount would cost a fortune. But in any case, I'm very open to an alternative way of calculating the build cost if someone wants to suggest one. I have only put this in as a backup to the morning report.

Darien Rothschild
Posted - 2009.12.31 11:58:00 - [9]
 

Edited by: Darien Rothschild on 31/12/2009 12:08:39
Originally by: RAW23

No, I'm afraid you haven't got it right. I want a prediction of the date at which it will cost more to build a single apoc, based on the mineral prices in Jita, than you will receive if you platinum insure the ship and self destruct it. This figure would be possible to manipulate but the cost of doing so would far exceed the value of any prize fund, I expect. I would be surprised if more than 20-30 tickets are purchased, making the prize fund 100-150 mil (plus the 100 or so mil I will spend on an additional prize). You would need to invest at least several billion, and the figure will probably be closer to 10 billion, in order to manipulate all the T1 mineral prices in Jita by even a small amount. If you wanted to do this today, well, I haven't done the maths but to single handedly push both buy and sell orders for all the minerals up by 5-10% would be, shall we say, ****ing expensive Shocked.



Completely admit I misread that. You're still talking average price, though, just for minerals. So, taking Triatnium as an example, your formula is:
((total price of all units of buy orders for Trit + total price of all units of sell orders)/total number of units ordered both bought and sold)*number of units of tritanium required to fill an Apoc BPC of ME 50?

It would be VERY expensive to raise those numbers to make the contest end say tomorrow. Much cheaper would be to artificially deflate them for several weeks, or 90 days. I'm almost tempted to place a bet on 91 days. Remember, you don't need to manipulate the price people are actually paying, just the average (as opposed to median) price. Do you have a link to this morning report you're talking about? I'd like to see how he comes up with his numbers.

Edit: Sorry for the confusion, just wanted to keep it on my trader alt. Looking into exactly how the numbers are calculated in Price History has given me whole new things to think about.

RAW23
Posted - 2009.12.31 12:10:00 - [10]
 

Originally by: Ji Sama
I will put ONE THOUSAND ISK on december the 21st 2012!


Hi Ji! If you're short on cash I'm happy to give you what you need to make up the ticket price. Don't worry about paying me back. Make sure you can get yourself some food and warm clothes first, and then look for a place to stay.

So, Dec. 21st 2012 is yours. EnjoyVery Happy

Neme Nishta
Posted - 2009.12.31 20:18:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: Tyreal
This guy and his alt sound legit.

Rolling Eyes


Um, no, I am a main.

5M (and the projected prize pool) is peanuts.

I'm just in it for fun, as I said. If it does turn out to be a scam (which I doubt), gee, guess I'll go do a mission and make 5-8x my investment back in a few minutes.


RAW23
Posted - 2010.01.01 11:25:00 - [12]
 

Edited by: RAW23 on 01/01/2010 11:25:14
Not many people seem interested in taking part in this Sad. At the moment we only have 2 entries, so one of them will win at least 110 mil in prizes. Anyone else want to step up and make a prediction? I'm going to go for July 30 2010 (my guess is insurance will be nerfed in the next patch).

So, prize fund now at a minimum of 115mil.

I'll give this a weekly bump, to see if I can drag anyone else in.

Dretzle Omega
Caldari
Global Economy Experts
Posted - 2010.01.02 15:32:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: RAW23
Edited by: RAW23 on 01/01/2010 11:25:14
Not many people seem interested in taking part in this Sad. At the moment we only have 2 entries, so one of them will win at least 110 mil in prizes. Anyone else want to step up and make a prediction? I'm going to go for July 30 2010 (my guess is insurance will be nerfed in the next patch).

So, prize fund now at a minimum of 115mil.

I'll give this a weekly bump, to see if I can drag anyone else in.


lol at thinking RAW is scamming in this. :P

I'll put 5 Mil down on February 27th.

Baroness Bane
Posted - 2010.01.02 16:44:00 - [14]
 

We need more sweepstakes and lotteries, so I'm in, 9th April 2010

Isk sent.

raukosen
Posted - 2010.01.02 16:45:00 - [15]
 

Originally by: RAW23
Edited by: RAW23 on 01/01/2010 11:25:14
Not many people seem interested in taking part in this Sad. At the moment we only have 2 entries, so one of them will win at least 110 mil in prizes. Anyone else want to step up and make a prediction? I'm going to go for July 30 2010 (my guess is insurance will be nerfed in the next patch).

So, prize fund now at a minimum of 115mil.

I'll give this a weekly bump, to see if I can drag anyone else in.


Why would it be nerfed next patch?
The market is currently demonstrating that it indeed is self regulating. The reason players are able to make money off of it is because of other players' stupidity in selling their minerals too cheaply, and far more isk is injected into the game from bounties anyway

RAW23
Posted - 2010.01.02 16:49:00 - [16]
 

Edited by: RAW23 on 02/01/2010 16:49:38
Originally by: raukosen
Originally by: RAW23
Edited by: RAW23 on 01/01/2010 11:25:14
Not many people seem interested in taking part in this Sad. At the moment we only have 2 entries, so one of them will win at least 110 mil in prizes. Anyone else want to step up and make a prediction? I'm going to go for July 30 2010 (my guess is insurance will be nerfed in the next patch).

So, prize fund now at a minimum of 115mil.

I'll give this a weekly bump, to see if I can drag anyone else in.


Why would it be nerfed next patch?
The market is currently demonstrating that it indeed is self regulating. The reason players are able to make money off of it is because of other players' stupidity in selling their minerals too cheaply, and far more isk is injected into the game from bounties anyway


It would be rather bad form for me to win my own sweepstake Wink.

Edit - Dretzle, BB, thanks for participating.

Hippopotamus Rex
Posted - 2010.01.02 20:56:00 - [17]
 

Originally by: RAW23
equidistant


Holy crap. Are you guys seeing this? Equidistant? This is how you know this guy is smart. I would have said something like "if two people's day numbers are the same but on different sides of the good right day then boths are the winners and get everything but so they get the same amount."

Guy must have a phd or something. Wink

Sounds fun Raw. I'll be submitting a guess later.

Sneak Lemming
Posted - 2010.01.03 07:40:00 - [18]
 

5mil isk sent. Tnx man hope I win.

RAW23
Posted - 2010.01.03 11:37:00 - [19]
 

Originally by: Sneak Lemming
5mil isk sent. Tnx man hope I win.


Not sure if I'm being trolled here, but what the hell, I'll bite.

Date?

Thrasymachus TheSophist
Posted - 2010.01.06 15:31:00 - [20]
 

What happens if they never fix it?

That would be my guess - working as designed.

Now if I put my ISK$5 mill. on "never", how do I ever collect when I'm right?

How does anyone ever collect if they never fix it?

Dretzle Omega
Caldari
Global Economy Experts
Posted - 2010.01.06 15:39:00 - [21]
 

Originally by: Thrasymachus TheSophist
What happens if they never fix it?

That would be my guess - working as designed.

Now if I put my ISK$5 mill. on "never", how do I ever collect when I'm right?

How does anyone ever collect if they never fix it?


It doesn't have to be fixed. If demand increases to the point where people want them even though insurance doesn't pay them back in full, then it ends. If you don't think they'll "fix" it, and you don't think demand will ever rise sufficiently vs supply, then your question is valid.

RAW23
Posted - 2010.01.06 15:45:00 - [22]
 

Edited by: RAW23 on 06/01/2010 15:46:13
@ Thrasymachus

Well, the sweepstake is on when so any bet has the assumption that insurance fraud will cease to be profitable at some point built into it. I have asked people to pick a date and never is not a date.

However, I do see your point. If you want to bet on "never" that is fine. Unfortunately, it is not possible to conclusively demonstrate that something will never happen, so there will never be a payout on such a bet. Equally, if it does never happen, then anyone who placed a bet on a fixed date will not have won. I'm not a competent enough mathematician to tell you what current thinking is concerning proximity to an infinite quantity, so I can't say who "should" have won in such a case by having the closest date (but it won't matter much anyway).

So, I would suggest you only place a bet if you think that fraud will cease to be possible at some point. Personally, given the current increases in the price of pyerite (including a bit of serious manipulation), I would expect it to be sooner rather than later. But since the question has been raised, I'll institute a cut-off point of 20 years hence (assuming the game is still running then) and will pay out to a bet on "never" at this point. If the game shuts down before hand and we have some advance notice, I will pay out to a "never" bet the day before the servers are turned off.

Btw - awesome name! That was the one I wanted when I signed up but someone had already taken it and all the decent variations on it. Please don't take this answer as a socratic attempt to "beard the [Thrasymachean] lion". In my opinion, Thrasymachus comes out on top in that whole exchange.

Dretzle Omega
Caldari
Global Economy Experts
Posted - 2010.01.06 16:00:00 - [23]
 

Originally by: RAW23
I'll institute a cut-off point of 20 years hence


20 years seems a bit extreme for a pool like this. How about 1 year?

RAW23
Posted - 2010.01.06 16:11:00 - [24]
 

Originally by: Dretzle Omega
Originally by: RAW23
I'll institute a cut-off point of 20 years hence


20 years seems a bit extreme for a pool like this. How about 1 year?


Hmmm.... I was trying to approximate never, and Ji already took a date in 2012. Maybe 5 years would suit better.

Dretzle Omega
Caldari
Global Economy Experts
Posted - 2010.01.06 16:17:00 - [25]
 

Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Dretzle Omega
Originally by: RAW23
I'll institute a cut-off point of 20 years hence


20 years seems a bit extreme for a pool like this. How about 1 year?


Hmmm.... I was trying to approximate never, and Ji already took a date in 2012. Maybe 5 years would suit better.


I guess that would have to depend on whether she was joking because that's the END OF THE WORLD. Razz

In which case, it's actually December 21st. Smile

RAW23
Posted - 2010.01.06 18:11:00 - [26]
 

Originally by: Dretzle Omega
Originally by: RAW23
Originally by: Dretzle Omega
Originally by: RAW23
I'll institute a cut-off point of 20 years hence


20 years seems a bit extreme for a pool like this. How about 1 year?


Hmmm.... I was trying to approximate never, and Ji already took a date in 2012. Maybe 5 years would suit better.


I guess that would have to depend on whether she was joking because that's the END OF THE WORLD. Razz

In which case, it's actually December 21st. Smile


Ah. The Mayan calendar Ray was planning his EBANK reports in accordance with? Well, since I didn't get the joke and I paid for the rest of her ticket, she's stuck with it now.Smile Regardless, I still think 1 year is too short for "never".

Thrasymachus, what do you think would be appropriate?

Thrasymachus TheSophist
Posted - 2010.01.07 04:21:00 - [27]
 

Forever is a mighty long time.

Rotnac
Caldari
GoonWaffe
SOLODRAKBANSOLODRAKBANSO
Posted - 2010.01.07 04:34:00 - [28]
 

Eh, what the hell. Have 5m, and I'll call May 11, 2010.

RAW23
Posted - 2010.01.10 18:08:00 - [29]
 

Weekly bump. Come on people. I know there are fraudsters here on the forum. What are your guesses?

Btw - It looks like Utemetsu's morning report was rather short lived, so we will have to go for the back-up plan. This needs a little refining so any contributions are welcome.

Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente
Origin.
Black Legion.
Posted - 2010.01.10 18:49:00 - [30]
 

My problem with this is that my answer is "never". How do you collecct on that sort of bet?


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