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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.03 10:50:00 - [1]
 


With all of CCP's worry to reduce the dysprosium/promethium bottleneck and improve alchemy and a lot of other things, they seem to have missed two things : first, that the exploitable moon mineral ratios are nowhere close to the base prices they have set (but that's not the big problem) and that all thier changes (with regards to a more accurate moon-mineral rarity table) turns TECHNETIUM into the single largest bottleneck for T2 items.

If you don't believe it, see for yourself, that's the conclusion I came to over here.
The discussion was about something else (the entire economic state and all of that), but this matter (if the conclusion is correct) is of utmost urgency and therefore I considered it is worth opening up a thread in here.
You know, just to draw attention to CCP that they're looking at the WRONG things to balance.


ElvenLord
4S Corporation
Morsus Mihi
Posted - 2009.11.03 11:24:00 - [2]
 

Edited by: ElvenLord on 03/11/2009 11:29:03
technetium is also r32 whose price is bellow some r16. Its price (and maybe even demand, not sure) decreased over past year (it price dropped from almost 4k to 1200 ISK since alchemy introduction).

If you look at those examples (links in other thread), you also have almost double increase in platinum and chromium, not just technetium. Considering their abundance it shouldn't be that big of a problem/bottle neck, at least as far as those 3 are concerned (prices might increase 2x and disrupt overall price-rarity balance).

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.03 13:16:00 - [3]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 13:21:51


Please visit your user settings to re-enable images.

That's how it looks like with the current stats.
The higher the bars, the higher the price will be... and not linearly, but exponentially.

Look at how little difference was before a couple of months ago between dysprosium (over a hundred k ISK), technetium (barely 6k ISK at maximum in the past year) and neodymium (only a few k ISK except recently)...
...now look at the difference between technetium and everything else after the current changes.
If they go ahead with the changes exactly like they have'em now, then if Technetium breaks past 100k ISK per unit in a matter of months then keeps going up, I won't be too surprised.

iP0D
Posted - 2009.11.03 14:13:00 - [4]
 

stop waking people up mkay

Will Hunter
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2009.11.03 15:16:00 - [5]
 

bump becouse this guy seems to know

ElvenLord
4S Corporation
Morsus Mihi
Posted - 2009.11.03 16:04:00 - [6]
 

I dont believe tech will brake 20k ISk boundary, but then again you never know. Chromium worries me a bit more. I know there are hell of a lot technetium moons (well over 250). I cant even sell all technetium my corp mines for weeks.

An Anarchyyt
Gallente
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
Posted - 2009.11.03 16:42:00 - [7]
 

Originally by: Will Hunter
bump becouse this guy seems to know


Seems to know how to make a bad post?

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.03 17:19:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: ElvenLord
I dont believe tech will brake 20k ISk boundary, but then again you never know. Chromium worries me a bit more. I know there are hell of a lot technetium moons (well over 250). I cant even sell all technetium my corp mines for weeks.

According to Dotlan, in the covered/prospected area (roughly HALF of EVE - all of exploitable lowsec plus less than half of 0.0) there are 135 dysprosium moons, 179 promethium moons, 195 neodymium moons, 123 thulium moons, 230 technetium moons and 735 chromium moons.
Now, _IF_ the other unprospected half of the game world has roughly the same moon make-up, then the grand total production levels would be the following : 19.44 mil dysprosium/month, 25.78 mil promethium/month, 16.26 mil thulium/month, 30.40 mil technetium/month, 97.16 mil chromium/month.

The AMOUNTS listed on that image (in bright yellow over black/white stripes) are the EXACT amounts of moon minerals "eaten up" at "perfect ME" build (invented things for instance use up extra, so actual usage is higher that that) the current Jita inventory moved through the market in one month would be made out of. Yes, JUST for Jita.
Sure, Jita might move most of the items twice (many are purchased by traders from manufacturers, then resold to customers), but that's still pretty damn close - and I'd wager the invention-related waste compensates for part of that already.

Now, if the moon data is not completely bonkers, and the rest of the world does indeed contain similar amounts of moons, the picutre is quite grim...
BEFORE Dominion, Jita used to "eat up" roughly 50% of dysprosium and promethium produced game-wide, but only roughly 30% of technetium, and roughly 25% of neodymium and chromium.
AFTER Dominion however, the very same amounts of items traded through Jita would consume over 60% of technetium produced game-wide, a bit less than 50% of chromium production, only 44% of neodymium and barely around 30% of promethium, dysprosium, mercury and platinum each.
Under these circumstances, technetium would be WORSE than dysprosium or promethium ever were, chromium and neodymium would be roughly as bad as dysprosium and promethium used to be, platinum might matter because you can use it in neodymium alchemy, but the rest would be mostly irrelevant since the one and only bottleneck that matters will be just technetium.

Tagami Wasp
Caldari
Sarz'na Khumatari
Ushra'Khan
Posted - 2009.11.03 18:00:00 - [9]
 

Originally by: Akita T
...
Now, _IF_ the other unprospected half of the game world has roughly the same moon make-up, then the grand total production levels would be the following : 19.44 mil dysprosium/month, 25.78 mil promethium/month, 16.26 mil thulium/month, 30.40 mil technetium/month, 97.16 mil chromium/month.

...



Did you include in your analysis the fact that most alliances did not bother to produce technetium in favor of dysprosium? I see a 50% rise in consumption, however I also see that technetium volume estimates are 50% more than dyspro volume estimates. I am not refuting your analysis (seems solid enough), but I don't think that the market will have a violent readjustment, especially if there are people sitting on technetium stocks out there.

Can you crosscheck you data with the Q2 Report and see how techne consumption correlates to its production rates?

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.03 18:33:00 - [10]
 

Originally by: Tagami Wasp
Did you include in your analysis the fact that most alliances did not bother to produce technetium in favor of dysprosium? I see a 50% rise in consumption, however I also see that technetium volume estimates are 50% more than dyspro volume estimates.


The analysis I made was based on total estimated moons in existence that can be mined (so the maximum possible available amounts if every last one would be mined), not on actual extraction rates.
The moon availability ratios used were based on the ratios collected from Dotlan.

Before Dominion, the "top 8" usage rates (including estimated alchemy usage) out of total maximum possible production looked like this:
Dysprosium - 100%
Promethium - 97.8%
Technetium - 60.6%
Cadmium - 60.6%
Chromium - 57.2%
Neodymium - 45.0%
Platinum - 36.7%
Mercury - 33.3%

After Dominion, estimated usage rates (only difference being SiSi changed construction data) look like this right now for the "top 8":
Technetium - 100.0%
Chromium - 79.7%
Neodymium - 71.7%
Platinum - 54.4%
Dysprosium - 50.8%
Promethium - 47.8%
Mercury - 47.2%
Cadmium - 37.2%

You only need to look at price per unit this past year vs usage percentage to reach a horrifying conclusion after you look at the new usage rates.

Retar Aveymone
Posted - 2009.11.03 19:31:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: An Anarchyyt
Originally by: Will Hunter
bump becouse this guy seems to know


Seems to know how to make a bad post?


battlestars would know something about bad posting I can see why you would be annoyed he's treading on your "bad posting on the test forum" territory

Tagami Wasp
Caldari
Sarz'na Khumatari
Ushra'Khan
Posted - 2009.11.03 20:29:00 - [12]
 

Edited by: Tagami Wasp on 03/11/2009 20:54:26
Akita T, I think that there is limited info on moon composition to declare critical point. If you have friends in 0.0 alliance try to get technetium info, I checked dotlan and I beleive there is a big hole in that data, especially in r32s like tech and cae.

Edit: I also feel that there will always be a chokepoint in production systems. You cannot remove something like that, it is inherent. If you do know a way to remove such design limitations, Toyota and GE are offering positions I hear. But having the choke point moved from R64 to R32 is a huge improvement. Even if they "fix" the technetium bottleneck, there is always the possibility for alliances to create artificial lack of a mineral and flood the market. The lower Rs just make it harder to do so. Therefore, I do believe that because techne is more widely available its supply/demand deficit will have a shallow upwards trend, but it will not be instantly obvious. I can see an 10% deficit at most. When it's price starts going up more moons will be harvested and that trend will be held back. If you are thinking long term (4 months +), then yes, techne can become an issue. Just in time for Spring expansion.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.03 21:29:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: Tagami Wasp
I also feel that there will always be a choke-point in production systems. You cannot remove something like that, it is inherent.

Of course you can't possibly eliminate the choke-points in T2 manufacture, by design you will always have at least one mineral that's using up all of the available potential resources.
What you can do however is divide and spread it across as many minerals as possible... try to get as many as you can within 90% or more of their maximum potential usage.

With the risk of repeating myself, right now, we have two choke-points, namely dysprosium and promethium, so most of the market value is spread between those two.
If the changes go on exactly like this, you end up having just ONE choke-point, and most of the market value will concentrate into it alone - making the situation worse than it was before instead of better.

No matter how you put it, the approximate ratio between prom/dys/neod/thul and techn/merc/haf/caes moons is somewhere around 2 - either way you turn it, technetium wasn't a worthless material before (and it WAS more valuable than all other three of "similar rarity"), so it couldn't have possibly been using less than 50% (my calculations put it at 61%) of its maximum extraction potential - doubling that in Dominion due to the way things have been adjusted is bound to push it at least near full usage in the best of cases (so it becomes the most valuable one anyway, or one of the most valuable ones), and in the worst of cases beyond capabilities, pushing all other minerals to junk status _AND_ T2 prices up.

They have to change something, fast, or else Dominion will become the greatest mistake CCP ever made... and they've made a few.

Mahke
Aeon Of Strife
Discord.
Posted - 2009.11.04 00:06:00 - [14]
 

Originally by: Tagami Wasp
but I don't think that the market will have a violent readjustment


On the contrary, it has already begun.

I'm not getting involved myself in the hope that CCP nips this disaster in the bud (just like with the whole SF thing), but, the math Akita used was convincing, and the importance of bottlenecks in MMO economies is obvious.

Caldor Mansi
Posted - 2009.11.04 00:18:00 - [15]
 

Edited by: Caldor Mansi on 04/11/2009 00:19:34
After faction ships getting massive boost, further decrease of LP cost => people use faction ships and modules instead of T2 => problem solved...?

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.04 00:47:00 - [16]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 04/11/2009 01:18:00
Originally by: Caldor Mansi
After faction ships getting massive boost, further decrease of LP cost => people use faction ships and modules instead of T2 => problem solved...?

The problem was never T2 ship prices - it was the huge revenue value of dysprosium/promethium moons (around 10 bil ISK per month at peak prices), and the stated intention for this expansion was to "even out" moon values by reducing existing bottlenecks, so that much more moons would be valuable, but have lesser individual values.
If nothing gets changed from what we see now on SiSi, we could have technetium moon revenues closer to 14 bil per month long enough after the expansion, with everything else barely worth the effort mining them.

Deva Blackfire
Viziam
Posted - 2009.11.04 02:26:00 - [17]
 

Afaik dyspro hit around 16-18bil, promet was just behind with around 14b at some point. No idea how its now, didnt check prices. But if what you say happens then tech might end up at 20b+ per moon. Which again is as screwed up as dyspro/prom is right now.

Sciencegeek deathdealer
Posted - 2009.11.04 02:59:00 - [18]
 

im just gonna point out that with the new sov system you can upgrade your systems so that you can harvest rarer moon minerals... just to bring this up.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.04 03:07:00 - [19]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 04/11/2009 03:11:30

Originally by: Sciencegeek deathdealer
im just gonna point out that with the new sov system you can upgrade your systems so that you can harvest rarer moon minerals... just to bring this up.

AFAIK, moon mineral availability was not supposed to be one of the things you can upgrade in Dominion.
So... since when exactly is that supposed to be the case ? Source ?
P.S. And "I heard it somewhere" / "a friend told me so" / "but that makes sense" does not count - if it's not an official dev post, or something you have tested personally on SiSi, it's not reliable.

Arthur Frayn
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2009.11.04 05:02:00 - [20]
 

Thanks for the market tip!

Aeon Storm
Caldari
Science and Trade Institute
Posted - 2009.11.04 07:57:00 - [21]
 

Originally by: Sciencegeek deathdealer
im just gonna point out that with the new sov system you can upgrade your systems so that you can harvest rarer moon minerals... just to bring this up.


I remember this question being asked specifically, and the CCP repsonse was "no." Moons were not to be part of the upgrade system. However, mention was also made of moon goo possibly being part of comet trails/signature hits or similar, in WH space. (Future expansion, not Dom.)

And... if you want a example of the single choke point phenomenon, look at T3 salvage. Not good.

Altaica Amur
Pan Galactic Gargle Blasters
Important Internet Spaceship League
Posted - 2009.11.04 09:24:00 - [22]
 

I think the one thing that might be overlooked in this analysis is the tendency for dotlan to focus on the more valuable moons. Some systems have complete scans and some regions do as well, Venal iirc falls into that category while other places like delve are very spotty with where if you believe Dotlan they have more promethium then anything else. I suspect that the hit to tech as an r32 will be less then it was with Dyspro and Prom simply because of the higher awareness around those mins currently meaning closer to 100% are capped vs tech where that is likly not the case.

JitaPriceChecker2
Posted - 2009.11.04 09:33:00 - [23]
 

All i can say that fixing moon gold mining with dealing with blueprint requirments is the worst idea ever


Even if you succedy its onl a short term fix

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.04 15:13:00 - [24]
 

Originally by: Altaica Amur
I think the one thing that might be overlooked in this analysis is the tendency for dotlan to focus on the more valuable moons. Some systems have complete scans and some regions do as well, Venal iirc falls into that category while other places like delve are very spotty with where if you believe Dotlan they have more promethium then anything else. I suspect that the hit to tech as an r32 will be less then it was with Dyspro and Prom simply because of the higher awareness around those mins currently meaning closer to 100% are capped vs tech where that is likly not the case.

Well, that's why I was hoping the devs would be nice enough to give us the actual percentages, so I made another thread about it somewhere else.

Also, another thing : technetium was always a relatively valuable moon mineral (even more valuable than neodymium most of the time), yet still there are plenty of neodymium moons accounted for compared to prom/dysp. To assume technetium is under-reported on dotlan would not be very wise... if anything, it should be OVER-reported, because there would be less resistance to moon-scan attempts in the areas with technetium compared to areas with dysprosium/promethium, and more or less the same as in areas with neodymium.

Anyway... we can only guess and give warnings at this time, unless the devs give a clear answer to this so we can calculate everything properly.
And no, I do not trust CCP to calculate it all properly, just look at the mess they made with salvage of all kinds, last of which is sleeper salvage. Sheesh.

iP0D
Posted - 2009.11.04 15:20:00 - [25]
 

Not a chance in hell they will give the data you are after tbh. Doesn't fit with the concept of the EVE manual. So to speak.

You would stand a far better chance to convince people to provide the missing moon data, if only for the purpose of pushing things a little harder since the final endcap of having to reshuffle the actual moons is rapidly approaching anyway.

Adril Alatar
Minmatar
Galactic Shipyards Inc
Huzzah Federation
Posted - 2009.11.04 15:27:00 - [26]
 

Originally by: Deva Blackfire
Afaik dyspro hit around 16-18bil, promet was just behind with around 14b at some point. No idea how its now, didnt check prices. But if what you say happens then tech might end up at 20b+ per moon. Which again is as screwed up as dyspro/prom is right now.


dyspro moon is between 8.5 and 9b....
prom moon at 6.5b per month right now

Originally by: Akita T

According to Dotlan, in the covered/prospected area (roughly HALF of EVE - all of exploitable lowsec plus less than half of 0.0) there are 135 dysprosium moons, 179 promethium moons, 195 neodymium moons, 123 thulium moons, 230 technetium moons and 735 chromium moons.



dyspro, prom moons are scouted in almost every region.
looking at dotlan there are 30+ tec moons in the regions scouted....
venal alone has 74....
so there are for sure a lot of technetium moons out there that are not on dotlan.

interesting is that the southern regions with high coverage (esoteria, querious, catch, feyth) have no single technetium moon...


Deva Blackfire
Viziam
Posted - 2009.11.04 15:44:00 - [27]
 

Edited by: Deva Blackfire on 04/11/2009 15:44:46
Originally by: Adril Alatar
Originally by: Deva Blackfire
Afaik dyspro hit around 16-18bil, promet was just behind with around 14b at some point. No idea how its now, didnt check prices. But if what you say happens then tech might end up at 20b+ per moon. Which again is as screwed up as dyspro/prom is right now.


dyspro moon is between 8.5 and 9b....
prom moon at 6.5b per month right now



Im quite sure i said "at some point". Oh yes, i did. That was before CCP announced t2 production changes (sop around month ago). Since then dysp and promet prices fell down and got halved. Which in fact doesnt show the "stable market" but market+t2 changes paranoia. If ccp were to remove t2 component changes i can assure you that within a month prices of dysp and prometh would end up bck at their highest levels.

The other part of the post i agree with. Akita might be underrating the amount of tech moons (well he does so but it might be MUCH larger number than he assumes). Afaik we know all (or at least 99%) of dysp/prom moons in game, yet im not sure if we even know 1/4 of tech moons. Especially considering what you shown - venal alone has 70 techs and there are regions which show only r64 composition (according to dotlan). Still i guess its possible for tech to rise upwards to 50-100k per unit (considering 2-4x larger amount of moons than akita posted in other thread).

EDIT:
ah btw, thx Akita. Easiest 2bil i ever done overnight (yeh yeh i didnt invest much, dont feel like risking more than 5% of isk i have ;p).

Sprobe
Association of Commonwealth Enterprises
R.A.G.E
Posted - 2009.11.04 15:49:00 - [28]
 

It's worth to raise an eyebrow. But it's not worth to be worried about EVE economy.

After all there are significantly less R64 than R32 moons. Don't use DOTLAN as a source for some serious calculations. I just checked 2 regions I know, and none of them are correct or even close.

If you say yes, DOTLAN is correct - then you might have a point.
If you say no, DOTLAN isn't correct - then your worries aren't worth discussing.

In either case it boils down to one very abvious fact: <R64 moons will need to be minered a little more than before. Since they are easier to access, I am so happy for the future of T2 market..

Tagami Wasp
Caldari
Sarz'na Khumatari
Ushra'Khan
Posted - 2009.11.04 17:38:00 - [29]
 

I'll say that Catch on Dotlan is totally out of sync with real data, so I can't take them into consideration. So again, Akita T, your initial data are incomplete, I suggest more data mining.

Sorry, but that's all I ca divulge about moon composition in our home region. You are free to seek diplomatic contacts if you want to get blue with us however.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.11.04 18:23:00 - [30]
 

Originally by: Sprobe
If you say yes, DOTLAN is correct - then you might have a point.
If you say no, DOTLAN isn't correct - then your worries aren't worth discussing.

Actually, the question is even simpler.

What is the number of technetium moons compared to dysprosium moons, <<*3, ~*3 or >>*3 ?

If there are significantly less than 3 times more, technetium will become the one bottleneck to rule them all.
If there are roughly 3 times more, technetium will increase in price noticeably, but not replace dysprosium/promethium as problem mineral.
If there are significantly more than 3 times more, technetium is not an issue at all.

So... you tell me... what do you think the real number is ?


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