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Kazzac Elentria
Posted - 2009.08.23 23:15:00 - [31]
 

Originally by: Teras Menac
Originally by: cosmoray
This is correct. It doesn't matter about individual prices it matters that the overall mineral basket is fairly constant.
If ones goes up something must go down, and vice versa.

Akita's explanations on this are best


Can you link me to some of Akita's explanations? I'm still not getting it though I think thanks to Carniflex I am getting closer.


Now with Linky Goodness

Keep in mind this is the thread that got the whole ball rolling regarding the mineral market. Since then things have more or less been hashed out in these forums to death.

Its to the point where really, it outta be common knowledge and that trading in minerals is practically like printing money if you are willing to sit and study a 3 month relational trend graph for the minerals.

Kapila Parthalan
Posted - 2009.08.24 01:17:00 - [32]
 

I agree that the mineral basket price index has a floor due to insurance. However, I don't see the reason why the index has a hard ceiling.
Originally by: cosmoray
On the flip side, if the prices of all minerals go up, then mass reprocessing of ships and modules already made will occur, along with loot from missions. This will again bring the price of some of the minerals down to hold the mineral basket roughly stable.


This doesn't actually cap the index; it only slows down price increases. The supply of cheap ships and modules below mineral cost will be gone quickly and the prices will increase to match the mineral costs. Reprocessable NPC items are the only such hard cap on mineral prices, since these do have limitless supply, but these caps are far above current prices as Carniflex points out.

Akita T made the argument that the price index would remain close to the floor due to deflation. This seems valid, except there is no guarantee that we will always have deflation, so this certainly isn't a hard ceiling. In fact, we had some inflation earlier this year, according to the QENs.

Am I missing some other factor that caps the mineral price index?

Kazzac Elentria
Posted - 2009.08.24 01:47:00 - [33]
 

Your overlooking the fact that CCP controls all things going into and out of the game and the fact that most things stay relatively within a certain price barrier for entry level items really should be no surprise. Wink

As much and as often as we rail on insurance, its honestly one of the things that keeps this game playable for everyone.

/yes Ive flip flopped on the whole insurance thing

Steve Thomas
Minmatar
Sebiestor Tribe
Posted - 2009.08.24 02:57:00 - [34]
 

Originally by: Kapila Parthalan
I agree that the mineral basket price index has a floor due to insurance. However, I don't see the reason why the index has a hard ceiling.?


Minerals have a number of hard caps.

the biggest one is how mutch the player base can spend at any givnen time. noone is going to buy minerals to produce crap that is going to sit on buy orders for weeks on end. and no matter how mutch we may want it to be otherwise your not going to get people to loose ships or even fire there guns mutch faster than the current rate of fire.

We have seen this for years now, Everything has a point where noone will spend cash for it.

The second hard cap is what people are willing to spend in the first place to produce. very few people are willing to produce for a total loss on each item they produce (even the minerals are free bunch)

the Third hard cap is the overall profitability of mining, eventualy other miners (either new ones comeing in, or existing ones who suddenly wake up and realise there minerals are not selling for what they are used to getting) will go after the more profitable ores.

Jin Nib
Resplendent Knives
Posted - 2009.08.24 05:53:00 - [35]
 

Selling short would be neat.

Tamarana
Minmatar
C.L.A.W.
Posted - 2009.08.24 15:59:00 - [36]
 

Last year tritanium low was caused by a bug in a mission (Crazy Industrialists). Instead of couriering the tritanium given, the missioners sold it in the market. There was a near limitless supply of tritanium and the prise went from 3.3 (the cap of the shuttle recycling) to 2.5 (Jita) around August. I and my corp was moving vast quantities of tritanium from low sec to Jita buying it at 2 isk and selling at 3. Fixed the bug, the volume in a few regions fell from 1-2 billions at day of tritanium exchanged to near zero and the price in Jita (and elsewhere climber to the 4isk/unit range). We did long hours of jumping up and down from station to station no-stop to haul the tritanium with a Jump Freighter (sometimes with two or three JF). 2 trip every ten minutes for any JF, 64 M units of tritanium moved every ten minutes (a cyno cycle). it was like owning the printing presses of the Fed.

The current low is, IMHO, linked to the banning of macro miners and macro missioniers. What was reduces was the influx of ice fuels (so they climbed) and the quantity of recycled modules that yield Mexallon and Isogen. The prices increased as the supply was reduced. But with less mexallon it was possible to build less ships at marketable prices, so the vast surpluses in tritanium and the falling price.

Probably this add to the summer season, where much people is on the beach and not play EVE much.





Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.08.25 09:43:00 - [37]
 

Originally by: Tamarana

The current low is, IMHO, linked to the banning of macro miners and macro missioniers.



The low came prior to this, i believe

Kapila Parthalan
Posted - 2009.08.25 12:54:00 - [38]
 

Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Your overlooking the fact that CCP controls all things going into and out of the game and the fact that most things stay relatively within a certain price barrier for entry level items really should be no surprise. Wink

As much and as often as we rail on insurance, its honestly one of the things that keeps this game playable for everyone.

/yes Ive flip flopped on the whole insurance thing


This is true. If prices of T1 items rose too much, CCP would probably rebalance things to fix it. It seems that there are more materials entering the game than isk, so mineral basket prices tend to be pushed down towards the insurance floor. Without insurance, prices for minerals and T1 items could drop a lot. I guess having a floor is a good thing, because if these prices dropped too much, that would also be problematic.

Originally by: Steve Thomas
Minerals have a number of hard caps.

the biggest one is how mutch the player base can spend at any givnen time. noone is going to buy minerals to produce crap that is going to sit on buy orders for weeks on end. and no matter how mutch we may want it to be otherwise your not going to get people to loose ships or even fire there guns mutch faster than the current rate of fire.

We have seen this for years now, Everything has a point where noone will spend cash for it.


This isn't a hard cap. Sure, as prices rise demand drops, but this is normal market behavior, not a hard cap.

Originally by: Steve Thomas
The second hard cap is what people are willing to spend in the first place to produce. very few people are willing to produce for a total loss on each item they produce (even the minerals are free bunch)


This isn't a cap at all. As mineral costs rise, the prices of produced items will also rise.

Originally by: Steve Thomas
the Third hard cap is the overall profitability of mining, eventualy other miners (either new ones comeing in, or existing ones who suddenly wake up and realise there minerals are not selling for what they are used to getting) will go after the more profitable ores.

I agree that rising mineral prices will bring in more miners, but this is another "soft" cap, not a hard cap.


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