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Fleshbot
Posted - 2009.08.21 20:50:00 - [31]
 

Originally by: Nyota Sol
Edited by: Nyota Sol on 20/08/2009 00:40:54
Originally by: Helena C

Yes but who is gonna pay $15 bucks just to get 250 mil? That's barely a well fitted BS. While using ISk to buy plexes at under 300mil is a great deal. It's not such a great deal paying real money for such little isk at the current market costs of most items.


Let me be clear on this point.

ALL THE SAME PEOPLE who would blow $15 to buy video game e-money would still spend it regardless of it being 250m or 300m. They can rationalize the in-game value from now to the end of eternity, but in the end these are people willing to spend real cash on in-game toys. It's shiny. It wouldn't honestly matter if it was a BS or a BC... they're going to spend it.


I think you both make good points but I'm not really certain as we basically have an echo chamber of people in here who buy plexs for consumption, or at the least, no one here who produces plex for sale.

A friend has in the past bought GTCs to convert to plexs for isk. He has clearly stated it's not worth doing at less than 650M for the GTC (or 325M per plex). Which gives us one data point.

I'm much more interested in hearing what the GTC/Plex producers have to say. At what price point will they stop producing. What are their thoughts on the current plex market.

Qi Teuf
Focused Fire
Posted - 2009.08.21 23:46:00 - [32]
 

Originally by: Nyota Sol
Edited by: Nyota Sol on 20/08/2009 00:40:54
Originally by: Helena C

Yes but who is gonna pay $15 bucks just to get 250 mil? That's barely a well fitted BS. While using ISk to buy plexes at under 300mil is a great deal. It's not such a great deal paying real money for such little isk at the current market costs of most items.


Let me be clear on this point.

ALL THE SAME PEOPLE who would blow $15 to buy video game e-money would still spend it regardless of it being 250m or 300m. They can rationalize the in-game value from now to the end of eternity, but in the end these are people willing to spend real cash on in-game toys. It's shiny. It wouldn't honestly matter if it was a BS or a BC... they're going to spend it.


I am one of those people that has money to spend on plexes, I happened to buy some at the right time when I came back to game and sold them for 400mil/PLEX. I would not however even think of buying PLEX at 200mil or lower.

The answer comes in my RL job and how much money I make an hour, compared to how much Isk I make in game and what it can buy. For me an easy 1.6Billion was nice to provide ships for PvP, but spending $ on only .6 Billion would not be worth the effort. There is a line at where it is more advantageous for me to Rat in 0.0 to earn Isk, than it is to sell PLEX at such a low price.

Now this may barely scratch the issue of the overall market, but your statement does not hold water for players like myself who purchase for other than market transactions.

Selene D'Celeste
Caldari
The D'Celeste Trading Company
ISK Six
Posted - 2009.08.21 23:49:00 - [33]
 

Originally by: Fleshbot

A friend has in the past bought GTCs to convert to plexs for isk. He has clearly stated it's not worth doing at less than 650M for the GTC (or 325M per plex). Which gives us one data point.



While anecdotal evidence is fine and dandy, numerical evidence is better. For those who have been around a few years, there have been periods where a 30 D GTC was worth 100, 180, and now 300. Obviously this has gone up as more ISK is available to the average player, but just because we've seen GTCs sell at 300 doesn't mean no one would sell them again at 200. You do what the market allows you to do. If the overwhelming pressure crashes the market to 200 and demand < supply still holds, then it will stay there, and players will make that judgment call when they come to it. In short, we already know that a lower price is a sustainable level, purely due to historical data.

Chaos Dreams
Posted - 2009.08.22 03:11:00 - [34]
 

If CCP is really worried about the excess plexes on the market, why don't they open up new uses for them? Kind of like how they allowed fanfest tickets to be bought with plex. Maybe allow the use of plex for character transfers and portrait swaps. Probably more people would be willing to do those if they could cover the fee with in-game money.

Steve Thomas
Minmatar
Sebiestor Tribe
Posted - 2009.08.22 04:16:00 - [35]
 

meh worse comes to worse they use a GM alt to buy up any surpluss and whos to know the diference.

Carniflex
StarHunt
Fallout Project
Posted - 2009.08.22 09:09:00 - [36]
 

Originally by: Steve Thomas
meh worse comes to worse they use a GM alt to buy up any surpluss and whos to know the diference.


That is highly unlikely scenario as possible fallout if this would go public would be far worse than little gain it can provide. CCP cares for EVE far too mutch to do something like that to it.

At the end of day it's ofc matter of trust. I for one are quite willing to trust CCP not to do something like that. There has been some issues and scandals over the years but they have always been quite open about those issues and put in considerable effort to smooth out the trust issues rising from those.

If the issue of surpulus PLEX would start to actually hurt then I'm sure they can come up with some other way to get that surpulus out from game. Most likley you could start using PLEX in EVE Store for those cofee cups and T-shirts if CCP think there is too many of those in game.

Taikun
Gallente
Jovoso
Teldar Paper
Posted - 2009.08.22 09:23:00 - [37]
 

Originally by: Carniflex
I for one are quite willing to trust CCP


Then you sir, are quite stup... er foolish.

Taikun

Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.08.22 10:22:00 - [38]
 

Originally by: Selene D'Celeste

While anecdotal evidence is fine and dandy, numerical evidence is better. For those who have been around a few years, there have been periods where a 30 D GTC was worth 100, 180, and now 300. Obviously this has gone up as more ISK is available to the average player, but just because we've seen GTCs sell at 300 doesn't mean no one would sell them again at 200. You do what the market allows you to do. If the overwhelming pressure crashes the market to 200 and demand < supply still holds, then it will stay there, and players will make that judgment call when they come to it. In short, we already know that a lower price is a sustainable level, purely due to historical data.


Good points. I am hesitant to use the past as a direct analogy for PLEX, because my understanding it that the PLEX represent a unique mix of both isk/cash and ingame sub markets. Likewise, with overall market changes and inflation, it's risky to rely on prices from years ago.

I believe that the level of PLEX usage will start to increase intensely as prices drop farther into the 200s. In spite of the immature personal attacks and claims that I'm engaging in "market manipulation" by having this discussion, I'm actually hoping prices lower gradually over a month and bottom out at 250m. With the incoming mineral price volatility, salvage/rig volatility and this plexapocalyps all going at the same time, i worry about the game market effectively crashing. Just a bit.

Originally by: Qi Teuf

I am one of those people that has money to spend on plexes, I happened to buy some at the right time when I came back to game and sold them for 400mil/PLEX. I would not however even think of buying PLEX at 200mil or lower.

The answer comes in my RL job and how much money I make an hour, compared to how much Isk I make in game and what it can buy. For me an easy 1.6Billion was nice to provide ships for PvP, but spending $ on only .6 Billion would not be worth the effort. There is a line at where it is more advantageous for me to Rat in 0.0 to earn Isk, than it is to sell PLEX at such a low price.

Now this may barely scratch the issue of the overall market, but your statement does not hold water for players like myself who purchase for other than market transactions.


I'd agree that there can be extremes where people would stop trading $ for ISK on the one hand, or on the other hand where people would start trading $ for ISK in much much higher volumes.

The bottom line is that you have RL time constraints and plex allow you to cash in RL work for game money. I'm saying most people with RL jobs and time constraints don't invest real $ for ISK. Similarly, I believe that what people say and what people do are not always the same.

If you could get 600m for plex and got used to that, I suspect you'd be saying you would NEVER buy plex at 300m. The perceived value is not entirely objective. We're talking about buying virtual toys.

I see the decision to spend $ for ISK on par with somebody having cash in their pocket and wanting to buy a new toy. They are going to buy a toy based on what they can afford. They may convince themselves that the decision making is some type of rational cost & value assessment, but what's driving the purchase is them having $ and wanting a toy. Whether they can afford a fancy new gaming computer or only a skateboard doesn't matter. They are spending what's burning in their pocket.

This is why i suspect people who buy ISK with cash would do so regardless of whether they get 600m ISK or 200m ISK. The temptation is obviously greater with more ISK and perceived value, but in the end we're talking about putting money into a game... regardless of what is "won" inside the game.

I might add that if prices dropped to 200m, this means more people could afford to make Eve pay for itself... and thus may feel like they "deserve" to spend real money on buying ISK.

Kinetic Wolf
Posted - 2009.08.22 17:16:00 - [39]
 

Edited by: Kinetic Wolf on 22/08/2009 17:23:08
lulz at speculators LaughingLaughingLaughingLaughing

btw today theres heavy undercutting on Jita 4-4. Im 99% sure someone is manipulating down, maybe to get a hundred of cheap PLEXes and then resell when prices go back to "regular" prices (320m).

Carniflex
StarHunt
Fallout Project
Posted - 2009.08.22 17:57:00 - [40]
 

Originally by: Kinetic Wolf
Edited by: Kinetic Wolf on 22/08/2009 17:23:08
lulz at speculators LaughingLaughingLaughingLaughing

btw today theres heavy undercutting on Jita 4-4. Im 99% sure someone is manipulating down, maybe to get a hundred of cheap PLEXes and then resell when prices go back to "regular" prices (320m).


While manipulation is quite possible data relased so far is suggesting that 320 mil will not be "regular" price in future as more PLEX is created than used up every day. If the new "regular" price will be 220 or 280 is impossible to really tell beforehand as that one depends on real people and thats damn hard to predict accurately. I myself would speculate on 250 mil area. ie 250 +/- 25 mil or so to be sustainable level considering the current supply and demand ratio.

Vhiskey
Caldari
Imperial Forces
Posted - 2009.08.22 18:18:00 - [41]
 

we´ll know it around xmas

Brainless Bimbo
Minmatar
Posted - 2009.08.22 18:49:00 - [42]
 

You notice that the plex price and trit price loosely track each other. Over the past months 100 million trit buys a Plex, if plex is 400M trit is 4 isk, trit now is 3 isk and plex´s are 300M ....

just a weird observation

Iridescent Moon
Caldari
Iridescent Dawn
Posted - 2009.08.22 18:52:00 - [43]
 

Originally by: Carniflex
I myself would speculate on 250 mil area. ie 250 +/- 25 mil or so to be sustainable level considering the current supply and demand ratio.



It was quite a while ago that I ran the numbers but, after factoring increased costs and inflation and such a PLEX at 260 would be equivalent to a 30 day GTC at about 180-190 million. So 250 million ISK PLEX is possible, lower is unlikely. Then again prices outside fo Jita are always lower so PLEX at just above 200 million might be seen in a few regions.

One thing to note is that PLEX volume in Jita yesterday was higher then any time in the past month. It was also the first day where not a single PLEX was sold for more then 300 million. We are looking at a slow drift downwards over the next few weeks. PLEX should shed 1-3 million per day. I don't see Jita PLEX going for less then 260 though, I think at that point speculators would jump in again, saving for the long term. Also you would have people start activating dormant data core accounts and cashing in while the conversion was cheap. Stacked on that would be the reduced supply from the few people that would stop funding their Eve time with GTC's.

Even with all of that the stockpile of Surplus PLEX is huge and will take a long time to liquidate. Additionally most of those PLEX were purchased buy foolish speculators when PLEX were overvalued, at the 340 million and above range. They will not sell when the prices are below 300 million, it's too much of a loss. That is unless they are in desperate need of some cash.

All of these factors come togeather and tell me that PLEX will hover in the 250-270 range. PLEX is down and will be down for months.

Fraps
Setenta Corp
F A I L
Posted - 2009.08.22 19:06:00 - [44]
 

Edited by: Fraps on 22/08/2009 19:32:12
does anyone ever compare the RM/isk value of a plex/GTC versus the illegal 3rd party RM/isk conversion. I would think that would be a more interesting aspect to consider.

for instance if if a 60 day GTC is 35 dollars and you convert that to plexs which nets you 600m give or take. would it not be applicable to see what 35 dollars spent on one of the many eBay/virtual money clearing houses would get you?

obviously the risk is far greater to the purchaser as they are now acting outside the EULA. but there are always those who would rather take a greater risk and get more isk then play inside the rules for less profit.

that also seems an area that CCP can compete in. by banning the RM traders, and macro miners they increase the cost of doing business for these clearing houses. this would in turn raise their prices allowing CCP's own mechanisms for converting RM to isk to be a more appealing option.

if you take that and run with it then the when CCP announces large scale banning operations that should push more people towards purchasing plex's rather than from a third party source. increasing the already bloated supply and keeping the price down. given time, Im sure the RM traders and macro'ers will return in force, driving down there own cost's and attracting more business. that could decrease the supply and move the price of Plex's back up.




lastly as a shameless plug for selene, its far more profitable to play poker than it is to sell plex's Razz

Iridescent Moon
Caldari
Iridescent Dawn
Posted - 2009.08.22 19:27:00 - [45]
 

Originally by: Fraps
does anyone ever compare the RM/isk value of a plex/GTC versus the illegal 3rd party RM/isk conversion. I would think that would be a more interesting aspect to consider.



I think talking about RMT like that would get the post deleted.

That being said since I am towing the company line, RMT is not worth the risk. You can get more for your money but, you can also get the money stripped form the account and banned as well. If the ISK is stripped you blew your on RL cash and got nothing for it, if you spent the ISK you have a negative wallet and have to buy GTC anyway to get yourself out of the hole. If you did not care about being baned or the negative wallet.... you probably did not care enough to do RMT for ISK anyway. GTC is such a better way to go, for everyone... eccpet the RMT guys. They can go **** themselves anyway.

(soirry for the **** language Embarassed)

Carniflex
StarHunt
Fallout Project
Posted - 2009.08.22 19:42:00 - [46]
 

Originally by: Iridescent Moon
Originally by: Fraps
does anyone ever compare the RM/isk value of a plex/GTC versus the illegal 3rd party RM/isk conversion. I would think that would be a more interesting aspect to consider.



I think talking about RMT like that would get the post deleted.

That being said since I am towing the company line, RMT is not worth the risk. You can get more for your money but, you can also get the money stripped form the account and banned as well. If the ISK is stripped you blew your on RL cash and got nothing for it, if you spent the ISK you have a negative wallet and have to buy GTC anyway to get yourself out of the hole. If you did not care about being baned or the negative wallet.... you probably did not care enough to do RMT for ISK anyway. GTC is such a better way to go, for everyone... eccpet the RMT guys. They can go **** themselves anyway.

(soirry for the **** language Embarassed)


Actually of late some RMT sites are more expencive than using just legal PLEX. At least as far as the spam they post in Jita local goes. Considering the amount of keylogger spam in the forums tho I think guy who uses RMT sites will have a far bigger problems than getting into negative wallet. Kinda like emtpy credit card kinda problems.

Selene D'Celeste
Caldari
The D'Celeste Trading Company
ISK Six
Posted - 2009.08.22 20:02:00 - [47]
 

Originally by: Fraps
lastly as a shameless plug for selene, its far more profitable to play poker than it is to sell plex's Razz


Thanks! This is only true if they win though. =P

Fraps
Setenta Corp
F A I L
Posted - 2009.08.22 20:25:00 - [48]
 

I updated my post with what I think is a more relevant thought on the RMT aspect.



It really does come down to risk vs reward but if no one was buying( which would be better for everyone) then they would not exist. so there has to be some effect. to me at least it would seem to be one of the more parallel markets. the product idea is essential the same. take disposable RL income and convert it into virtual currency. its just that one is within the rules and the other form is not.


not to turn this into a RMT thread that would probably get locked but, just googling around I found an article that suggests( I say suggests because I don't how factual they are) that the virtual market for all games is expected to reach 1.8 billion dollars this year. they also have a statistic suggesting 1/10 people purchase virtual item with real money. while that data is for the entire market it does suggest that the effect of RMT on things like the PLEX market may be higher than one would think.

Arec Bardwin
Posted - 2009.08.22 21:13:00 - [49]
 

Having buy orders filled at 250 mill this weekend. Good times for alt armies.

Merovee
Amarr
Gorthaur Legion
Of Mordor
Posted - 2009.08.23 00:40:00 - [50]
 

well I'm not going to make plexes for less than 300isk and I can see others doing the same. This means that the supply will start to dry up as demand increases with the lower prices. When price hits under 200 it may be the right time to start buying for your own use. 6 x 15 = 90 or 110can$ @ 200isk = 1.2B isk not very good value IMHO since in june I made 6 x 375isk = 2.25B isk. anyway its better to wait and buy isk when the warm weather is gone.ugh

Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.08.23 01:12:00 - [51]
 

Originally by: Kinetic Wolf
Edited by: Kinetic Wolf on 22/08/2009 17:23:08
lulz at speculators LaughingLaughingLaughingLaughing

btw today theres heavy undercutting on Jita 4-4. Im 99% sure someone is manipulating down, maybe to get a hundred of cheap PLEXes and then resell when prices go back to "regular" prices (320m).


Manipulating down?


Supplies doubled
after speculators drove prices absurdly high. Buyers have been in complete control of the prices for several days now. It's not stopping, and now that more people are waking up and realizing the 300m days are gone... they will try to cut their losses...

I think the problem is that many people perceive PLEX to be primarily about isk-cash trade rather than about subscribing to eve. The core valuation seems to me to be about what people are interested in paying for a month of Eve... not what people think is a good $-to-isk value.

Steve Thomas
Minmatar
Sebiestor Tribe
Posted - 2009.08.23 04:37:00 - [52]
 

Originally by: Carniflex
Originally by: Steve Thomas
meh worse comes to worse they use a GM alt to buy up any surpluss and whos to know the diference.


That is highly unlikely scenario as possible fallout if this would go public would be far worse than little gain it can provide. CCP cares for EVE far too mutch to do something like that to it. .

you realy think so eh? some of the developers dont even care enough about keeping there bloody jobs . . . oh right he was not fired because it would hurt his fealings. . . . but yet they will to to great lenghts suposedly to perminently banhammer anyone Else caught cheeting. . . right. . .Rolling Eyes

Steve Thomas
Minmatar
Sebiestor Tribe
Posted - 2009.08.23 05:15:00 - [53]
 

the REAL demand is inelastic because not everyone bothers with mutiple accounts to the point that they need to fuel them with plex, and even then that tends to be offset by the people who would otherwise spend 100 or more a month on plex who buy them for themselves.

however the real supplie is elastic in that eventualy its not realy worth the bother to get more plex just to try to fuel whatever it is the person is trying to use plex topay for.


Malcanis
Caldari
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
Posted - 2009.08.23 07:21:00 - [54]
 

Originally by: Fraps
Edited by: Fraps on 22/08/2009 19:32:12
does anyone ever compare the RM/isk value of a plex/GTC versus the illegal 3rd party RM/isk conversion. I would think that would be a more interesting aspect to consider.

for instance if if a 60 day GTC is 35 dollars and you convert that to plexs which nets you 600m give or take. would it not be applicable to see what 35 dollars spent on one of the many eBay/virtual money clearing houses would get you?

obviously the risk is far greater to the purchaser as they are now acting outside the EULA. but there are always those who would rather take a greater risk and get more isk then play inside the rules for less profit.

that also seems an area that CCP can compete in. by banning the RM traders, and macro miners they increase the cost of doing business for these clearing houses. this would in turn raise their prices allowing CCP's own mechanisms for converting RM to isk to be a more appealing option.

if you take that and run with it then the when CCP announces large scale banning operations that should push more people towards purchasing plex's rather than from a third party source. increasing the already bloated supply and keeping the price down. given time, Im sure the RM traders and macro'ers will return in force, driving down there own cost's and attracting more business. that could decrease the supply and move the price of Plex's back up.




lastly as a shameless plug for selene, its far more profitable to play poker than it is to sell plex's Razz


Remembering also that ISK farmers were a large source of demand for PLEXes as well... If CCP can effectively maintain the pressure on ISK farmers, then we may see a reversal of the long term price rise of playtime in EvE. I wonder what other long term effects might be seen (eg: reduction in supercapital demand).

Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.08.23 13:53:00 - [55]
 

Originally by: Steve Thomas
the REAL demand is inelastic because not everyone bothers with mutiple accounts to the point that they need to fuel them with plex, and even then that tends to be offset by the people who would otherwise spend 100 or more a month on plex who buy them for themselves.

however the real supplie is elastic in that eventualy its not realy worth the bother to get more plex just to try to fuel whatever it is the person is trying to use plex topay for.




That doesnt seem very elastic to me. Either people have accounts they intend to keep going with PLEX or they do not. From what i've heard, the only cases where folks turn on/off accounts is when juggling research.

So, while i can imagine some instability in terms of people setting up alt accounts and then later deciding not to stick with it... I would assume plex USAGE is a fairly steady thing long-term.

Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.08.23 14:16:00 - [56]
 

Originally by: Malcanis

Remembering also that ISK farmers were a large source of demand for PLEXes as well...


Really?

If that is true, it may explain the dip we see in plex usage. However, plex usage stabilized at pre-Rage levels. Perhaps that would have been a net growth in plex usage if they had been there still. Perhaps plx usage is growing and it isn't clear on the chart because of the Rage op.

Carniflex
StarHunt
Fallout Project
Posted - 2009.08.23 14:25:00 - [57]
 

Originally by: Nyota Sol
Originally by: Steve Thomas
the REAL demand is inelastic because not everyone bothers with mutiple accounts to the point that they need to fuel them with plex, and even then that tends to be offset by the people who would otherwise spend 100 or more a month on plex who buy them for themselves.

however the real supplie is elastic in that eventualy its not realy worth the bother to get more plex just to try to fuel whatever it is the person is trying to use plex topay for.




That doesnt seem very elastic to me. Either people have accounts they intend to keep going with PLEX or they do not. From what i've heard, the only cases where folks turn on/off accounts is when juggling research.

So, while i can imagine some instability in terms of people setting up alt accounts and then later deciding not to stick with it... I would assume plex USAGE is a fairly steady thing long-term.


I can't speak for average EVE player but I have alltogehter 5 accounts. When PLEX price increased I switched to paying for 2 of them with credit card (was paying only for my main with credit card before that). When PLEX kept going up I decided to mothball 5th and 4th of them. That took 3-4 months, to wrap stuff up on them and mothball (train characters to where I'm happy with them, transfer to emptied slots on remaining accounts). When PLEX hit 400 I sent my capital/combat alt inactive as I was busy in RL and thus it was too straining to run him on PLEX anymore.

Now that PLEX dropped to 300 my thrid account went back active. When it will hit 225-250 area my 4th account (that has still some useful chars on it) it might pick up again. To pick up my 5th account again PLEX would need to go into 200 mil area.

So people with multiple accounts can switch them on and off. It's just with some inertia, as it can take some time to "wrap up" if you are used to having 20 char slots available to go down to 12 slots. For example thinking thru where you need cyno alts and if you really need them in every locatin or reorganizing production chains by dropping less profitable items etc.

Nyota Sol
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2009.08.25 09:55:00 - [58]
 

Looks like we've yet to see a massive panic with all the sub-300m prices. Sinq has flattened at 280m for now.

This is good.

Hopefully there's more resistance to dumping than I feared. On the flip side, perhaps more people are looking to use PLEX in the coming month(s).

Please visit your user settings to re-enable images.

Perhaps when we see the next charts, we'll see that red line increasing into September with both increased interest (post-Rage) and people turning in many of those PLEX (yellow line) rather than trying to sell them for isk.

Josh Silver
Amarr
Viziam
Posted - 2009.08.25 12:31:00 - [59]
 

Originally by: Carniflex

Now that PLEX dropped to 300 my thrid account went back active. When it will hit 225-250 area my 4th account (that has still some useful chars on it) it might pick up again. To pick up my 5th account again PLEX would need to go into 200 mil area.



Those are quite realistic numbers.
I can't see any "casual player" demand kicking in until PLEX get very close to 200m. That's still a LOT of hours mining Veld or running missions to save 15$

And the stockpiles of PLEX laying around in hangars are rumored to be huge.

Gypsio III
Dirty Filthy Perverts
Posted - 2009.08.25 12:51:00 - [60]
 

Originally by: Nyota Sol
Originally by: Malcanis

Remembering also that ISK farmers were a large source of demand for PLEXes as well...


Really?


It's no coincidence that after 22nd June all the nonsense farmer names disappeared from the GTC forum... or that the spike in PLEX-in-stock starts from mid-late June. Wink


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