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blankseplocked CCP: How long are you going to wait for the T3 market to fix itself?
 
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Nova Fox
Gallente
Novafox Shipyards
Posted - 2009.04.10 01:28:00 - [31]
 

w space still being colonized it will be a while before we see more pernament flow of materials out of it.

Derus Grobb
Minmatar
Selectus Pravus Lupus
Transmission Lost
Posted - 2009.04.10 01:33:00 - [32]
 

The prices of sleeper stuff is still falling fast... Industrialists are profit taking while the market is still fairly fresh. One month is not a long time in the scheme of things.

Ever heard of supply and demand? The "if you can find one" you mention might be a clue as to why T3 is still expensive Idea

dip****

Deathsoul
Caldari
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2009.04.10 01:40:00 - [33]
 

Well, somehow i was waiting for a post like this, and now i want to ask the op.

Do you think it is fair that player like me that have played since 2003 beta have the same option of going into t3 ship as player made 2008 or 2007 ?, should there not be some difrence in price that keeps the newer player a lil away from t3 while maby better skilled pilots can affort them after saving ower YEARS, not weeks ?.

I hope ccp hold the prices up and do not change anything in the t3 construction line, because like it is its good, isk is to easy to get in eve and new items or stuff in the game should not be in ewerybodys hand in a month or so, with that rate the game burns.

BTW, i do not have t3 cruiser and do not have the intress in get one, so im just saying that there should be diffrence betwean players, the buying of gtc to change to isk part is right thou what you say.

Cailais
Amarr
Nasty Pope Holding Corp
Talocan United
Posted - 2009.04.10 01:41:00 - [34]
 

It will take a year, perhaps 18 months before T3 is in the hands of 'rich but not multi billionsaires. 2 years until it's common place for pvp.

C.



mechtech
SRS Industries
SRS.
Posted - 2009.04.10 02:10:00 - [35]
 

Sera, CCP has NEVER and will NEVER give a timeline, because it's totally up to the players. I guess you're new or something, but it always takes about 3-6 months for new items to stabilize in price. In the case of T2, it took over a year because the demand was so high and because of monopolies.

We the players can give a timeline of 3-6 months, I hope that's good enough for you. If you want a real timeline, you're going to have to crunch the economic data and come up with an educated estimate, but this is not something CCPs economist is at all obligated to do, he has better things to do with his time.

CCP usually considers intervention once the price has stabilized. As long as prices are trending down (which they are), CCP will not contemplate further action.


Roemy Schneider
Vanishing Point.
Posted - 2009.04.10 02:20:00 - [36]
 

1 month would have even been too little for t1 stuff to settle.
i wouldn't be surprised if it took another 2 months; we're dealing with quite a "wide" production line, even wider than t2 which "only" requires a few moon mins.

once jita trades all the wormhole stuff in mentionable amounts, we can start evaluating

but i doubt that'll happen; there's already more t3 ships than _regular_ drug users and we all know how long it took for that to get some luvin....

Santiago Fahahrri
Gallente
Galactic Geographic
Posted - 2009.04.10 02:43:00 - [37]
 

Originally by: Sera Ryskin
So it's been a month since the expansion...


A whole month!!! OMG!! Rolling Eyes

You do not understand the scope and depth of the eve economy. A month is nothing.


Sir Elliot
Posted - 2009.04.10 02:54:00 - [38]
 

Edited by: Sir Elliot on 10/04/2009 02:59:36
Originally by: Sera Ryskin
And another only-read-the-title response.


No, I actually read your stupid post. It says things like,

Originally by: Sera Ryskin
Prices are still in the "billions, if you can even find one" range...


Your post is pure fail. They are available. Finding one isn't the issue. You just don't like the price.

Drop me an EveMail when you get around to demonstrating that there is something that needs fixing. Because so far it's:

Originally by: Sera Ryskin
Whine whine whine whine, CCP isn't giving me what I want when I want it at the price I want, whine whine whine whine whine


If you want ships at prices that CCP never promised, then go out, produce them, and sell them at that price. I want 25m Zealots, doesn't mean I get them.

Phantom Slave
Universal Pest Exterminators
Posted - 2009.04.10 03:19:00 - [39]
 

Originally by: Deathsoul
Well, somehow i was waiting for a post like this, and now i want to ask the op.

Do you think it is fair that player like me that have played since 2003 beta have the same option of going into t3 ship as player made 2008 or 2007 ?, should there not be some difrence in price that keeps the newer player a lil away from t3 while maby better skilled pilots can affort them after saving ower YEARS, not weeks ?.

I hope ccp hold the prices up and do not change anything in the t3 construction line, because like it is its good, isk is to easy to get in eve and new items or stuff in the game should not be in ewerybodys hand in a month or so, with that rate the game burns.

BTW, i do not have t3 cruiser and do not have the intress in get one, so im just saying that there should be diffrence betwean players, the buying of gtc to change to isk part is right thou what you say.


If T3 prices stay where they are, or even drop half way in price, I'll never own one. Not because I'm "from 2007" but because there's no way a T3 ship is THAT much better than a normal T1 cruiser. I'll go fly my Absolution around some more and have fun with that, because fully fitted it's much cheaper than T3 is right now, and from what I've seen on Sisi there is no benefit for me to switch.

Now if they buff the hell out of T3 ships and make them solopwnmobiles then I'll reconsider my stance on their high prices.

Matthias Dete
Oursulaert Industries
Posted - 2009.04.10 04:07:00 - [40]
 

Originally by: Sera Ryskin
So it's been a month since the expansion, and T3 ships are showing no sign of getting to the promised 2-300 mil price range. Prices are still in the "billions, if you can even find one" range, and essentially out of reach for all but the richest players. And so far it seems their entire contribution to PvP has been from a single person who paid several hundred dollars in cash (through the GTC system, of course) for the honor of generating the first T3 lossmails. Hardly living up to expectations, I'd say.

So: how long are you going to give the market to work itself out before you step in and make changes to force the prices down? In your opinion, when does it stop being "players are still working out the production chain" and start being "there is something wrong here"?


Note: I'm not saying your answer is wrong, I'd just like to know what it is. I'm as eager to get my hands on T3 outside of SiSi as anyone else, so I'd like to know when I can realistically expect to see the prices and availability drop to their intended level.


Let me guess... you've just moved over from WOW right?

Xtreem
Gallente
The Collective
White Noise.
Posted - 2009.04.10 04:13:00 - [41]
 

the price has already changed from around 4 bil, to 1.5bil and continues to fall.

It will stay ar a fixed rate quite high still when the large operations decide to keep the price hi, untill more and more people get in on it and then it will drop right down.

it will happen, just takes time, it is a player driven economy afterall, and i like it how it is :)

F'nog
Amarr
Viziam
Posted - 2009.04.10 05:19:00 - [42]
 

Originally by: Istvaan Shogaatsu
Does anyone remember how much the first couple HACs cost?

Relax. Currently, the market is trying to appeal to the idiots who'd spend a few billion to own the first couple ships off the assembly line, simply because there's more money in it. Once those idiots run out of money, the market will adjust to whatever the average joe CAN pay.

Give it time - soon enough, sufficient industry will move into w-space to reduce prices and introduce competition. Currently there is no competition, there's just the first few people to build T3, and they get to write their own cheques. Those riches will eventually seduce more industrialists into w-space, forcing competition, and bringing prices down.

This has happened so many times before, I'm surprised people still take the time to complain about it.


I think you're forgetting about when Miner IIs came out. Frankly, back then, people wouldn't pay the same amount they're paying for a single T3 hull for a Miner II BPO.

Back then, people were willing to pay double digit millions of ISK for a mod that's taken for granted nowadays, and that was a lot back then.

Do, yeah, it's gonna take some time for the market to stabilize. Who cares how long it is as long as it's not in years before there's market activity. So you have to wait a few months? Big deal. If you don't want to wait, spend a stupid amount and get it now.

It's no different than the latest computer chip. Buy one for $1000 when it comes out or wait a few months and buy it for $200, probably less. The only difference is that we have a direct impact on how that price drops and why.

Deviana Sevidon
Gallente
Panta-Rhei
Butterfly Effect Alliance
Posted - 2009.04.10 07:52:00 - [43]
 

In about 2 years I will make fun of CCP and at every opportunity point a finger at the game development graveyard that T3 has become. Twisted Evil

Xenoxide
Caldari
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2009.04.10 09:56:00 - [44]
 

Originally by: Sera Ryskin
We can argue about the exact timeline for reaching the correct price and what (if anything) needs to be done to speed it up, but like it or not, the current prices are not correct.


The current prices ARE correct, for the current timescale. 200-300mil will come in a few months time once the market has stabilised and there are stable production lines churning out regular components. For now, 2bil is the correct price.

BuyMyShizz
Pator Tech School
Posted - 2009.04.10 10:13:00 - [45]
 

Sera you should probably crawl back to Ship & Mods Very Happy

Tippia
Caldari
Sunshine and Lollipops
Posted - 2009.04.10 10:20:00 - [46]
 

Originally by: Xenoxide
The current prices ARE correct, for the current timescale. 200-300mil will come in a few months time once the market has stabilised and there are stable production lines churning out regular components.
…so you're saying it takes no more than 5-6 manhours to collect all the resources (including BPCs) for one hull and a full set of subsystems?

Nyphur
Pillowsoft
Posted - 2009.04.10 11:09:00 - [47]
 

Having done a lot of sleeper space stuff, including radar sites in a class 6 system, I'd have to say the major bottleneck is blueprints at the moment. The subsystem blueprints are highly bottlenecked by availability of hybrid datacores. The decryptors and RAM drop like crazy but you need 3 datacores per subsystem job and they don't drop very often. A few tweaks would be welcome but other than that the prices are as expected for the one month mark. The industrial side of the market is only really picking up speed now. In the first few weeks, it was impossible to sell polymers but over the past week the volume traded has increased significantly.

The big deal is that very few players are actively taking on the tough sleeper systems because the risk is huge when very little is known. Pillowsoft have been pioneering in sleeper space (as have many other corps) and have been figuring out all the mechanics and techniques that work for living there. It's not until that information becomes publicly available that most people will actually launch expeditions but of course that information is what makes us profitable and we won't be in a hurry to release it for free (I'm sure others will though). In the first few weeks, we saw a lot of POS in easy class 1 to 3 systems but we ourselves held out for a class 4. When we got bored of that system, we sold it to another corp that were in a class 3 and then set about finding ourselves a class 6. Since then, we've had success against class 6 systems and we've counted an increasing number of POS in class 4 and 5 systems, which is a good sign that industry is going to start taking off majorly within the next month.

Give it a few more months. Within 2 months, they'll be down to 450m easily.

Santiago Fahahrri
Gallente
Galactic Geographic
Posted - 2009.04.10 11:16:00 - [48]
 

Originally by: Deviana Sevidon
In about 2 years I will make fun of CCP and at every opportunity point a finger at the game development graveyard that T3 has become. Twisted Evil


It's my bet that in less than a year we'll be able to make fun of all of the "T3 = fail" posts that are going on today.

Shintai
Gallente
Arx Io Orbital Factories
Arx Io
Posted - 2009.04.10 11:56:00 - [49]
 

Come again in 3-6 months. Thats about the time it took for the Orca to go from 1 billion to about 450million.

The Riddik
Posted - 2009.04.10 11:59:00 - [50]
 

lol, this is a typical WoW post, unfortunately for the OP, this is not WoW.

EVE has like, one of the best in game economies in the world, hell they even have to employ an economist.

so no, youll not be able to get juicy t3 for a bit.

Captain Campion
Viziam
Posted - 2009.04.10 12:13:00 - [51]
 

It is a legit question, why has it taken so long?

WarlockX
Amarr
Free Trade Corp
Posted - 2009.04.10 12:23:00 - [52]
 

It's probably gonna take 6-12 months for the prices to stabilize and until this happens CCP will probably not change anything. Even if they did change anything now it wouldn't really make a difference till after 6 months anyways.

SerialTurd
APEX ARDENT COALITION
C0NVICTED
Posted - 2009.04.10 13:30:00 - [53]
 

I say leave t3 as it is. 200-300 mil is too cheap. They should be 1+ bil per ship and damn hard to obtain. I don't want every n00b out there flying one. I miss the old days of find a ship that was actually t2 fitted and every t2 mod was worth 10+ mil.

You popped a t2 fit bs and you were set for the month isk wise. Those days need to come back and t3 is where it's at. Keep them hard to obtain. Make them worth popping.

Shereza
Posted - 2009.04.10 13:58:00 - [54]
 

Originally by: Sera Ryskin
So it's been a month since the expansion, and T3 ships are showing no sign of getting to the promised 2-300 mil price range. Prices are still in the "billions, if you can even find one" range, and essentially out of reach for all but the richest players. And so far it seems their entire contribution to PvP has been from a single person who paid several hundred dollars in cash (through the GTC system, of course) for the honor of generating the first T3 lossmails. Hardly living up to expectations, I'd say.


So far everything seems to be running along smoothly. The first Tengu on conctract, that I know of, was priced at roughly 4b and there's one on the market in Domain now for 2b. Several 500m subsystems have also been purchased off the Domain market which might get the people who made them. I believe that some of those subsystems were around 600m last week.

Prices dropping is a clear sign. Prices not dropping fast enough to suit you is a personal issue.

Originally by: Sera Ryskin
So: how long are you going to give the market to work itself out before you step in and make changes to force the prices down? In your opinion, when does it stop being "players are still working out the production chain" and start being "there is something wrong here"?


All things considered were I CCP I'd be monitoring everything from day one but I'd only start reviewing the numbers with an eye towards making tweaks after six months.

It took almost four months for the orca to reach it's maximum insurance payout for market prices and then dip lower to 450m. This is on a brand new hull that is built with pre-existing parts from pre-existing BPOs/BPCs that require nothing more than buying the BPs, mining/buying the minerals, and making the parts to make the ship, a ship who's BP was also available on th market as soon as the ship went live.

Four months to have the price of a ship to stabilize and reach the "intended" range despite having all of the required materials, BPs and all, available on the market.

If it took four months for the orca, one single ship, how long do you realistically think it will take for the T3 market to stabilize when there is not only significantly less initial supply but also when players actually have to work for it beyond buying a few things and slugging them into research/production queues?

Posting to ask if members of CCP's staff think things are going "according to plan" is all fine and dandy but your post is coming across as an off-side complaint that the ship hulls themselves, much less the sub-systems, aren't at 500m yet, and asking such a question after only a month when CCP probably doesn't have enough data to make an informed, much less intelligent, statement on the issue is foolhardy at best.

Smagd
Encina Technologies
Namtz' aar K'in
Posted - 2009.04.10 14:09:00 - [55]
 

Edited by: Smagd on 10/04/2009 14:09:12
Of course, there's a totally new way to *get* your 2 bills - introduced by T3!

Grab a few friends, go w-space exploring.

Last weekend, a group of 4 of us cleared a class 4 radar site and I'm still selling stuff from in there I wouldn't half know how to use myself.

Record price already accepted: 697M for a single Malfunctioning Hull Section.

Now if T3 came down like you ask, what do you think we could have gotten for that?

Since I don't have the hots for a T3 cruiser, I'd rather they stay in the 2 bills price range.

TimMc
Brutal Deliverance
Gypsy Band
Posted - 2009.04.10 14:09:00 - [56]
 

lol, a month. Will be 6-8 months before t3 ships reach cheap.

Tippia
Caldari
Sunshine and Lollipops
Posted - 2009.04.10 14:21:00 - [57]
 

Originally by: Smagd
Record price already accepted: 697M for a single Malfunctioning Hull Section.
How long were you out there? How many of you were there? What was the final gross income?
Quote:
Now if T3 came down like you ask, what do you think we could have gotten for that?
And that's the problem: given the current drop rates and and production, things need to cost that much. If they become cheaper, it won't be worth it. If it's not worth it, no-one will do it. If no-one will do it, prices won't come down.
Quote:
Since I don't have the hots for a T3 cruiser, I'd rather they stay in the 2 bills price range.
…and so will many other producers and gatherers think. Problem is, this makes T3 a toy with little or no value except for bling. This, in turn, makes the whole w-space/sleeper/T3/modular ship an immense waste of precious development and artist time — time that could have been spent on making the game better, rather than adding something that will not realistically be of any use.

Even at 300mil a ship, they'll still only be borderline useful. Getting down there through workflow improvements alone is highly unlikely since that would require a complete disregard for opportunity cost. If they don't go down that far, however, EVE will have seen yet another no-content (or, well… no useful content) patch to follow up on QR and EA, and that's not a good sign.

Faife
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
Posted - 2009.04.10 14:41:00 - [58]
 

welcome to real economy. if it's selling for billions, guess what, ccp were wrong, players are right

if you can't afford it, you fail. too bad, keep flying that rupture.

Ginako
The Praxis Initiative
Gentlemen's Agreement
Posted - 2009.04.10 14:44:00 - [59]
 

Originally by: Faife
welcome to real economy. if it's selling for billions, guess what, ccp were wrong, players are right

if you can't afford it, you fail. too bad, keep flying that rupture.


What if we CAN afford but still fly that Rupture? ugh
What? It's a really good ship! Very Happy

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2009.04.10 14:48:00 - [60]
 

Originally by: Shereza
It took almost four months for the orca to reach it's maximum insurance payout for market prices and then dip lower to 450m. This is on a brand new hull that is built with pre-existing parts from pre-existing BPOs/BPCs that require nothing more than buying the BPs, mining/buying the minerals, and making the parts to make the ship, a ship who's BP was also available on th market as soon as the ship went live.
Four months to have the price of a ship to stabilize and reach the "intended" range despite having all of the required materials, BPs and all, available on the market.
If it took four months for the orca, one single ship, how long do you realistically think it will take for the T3 market to stabilize when there is not only significantly less initial supply but also when players actually have to work for it beyond buying a few things and slugging them into research/production queues?

Now, now, let's be fair, it took LESS THAN TWO WEEKS for it to reach very respectable prices (and only because of a shortage of components, which were rushed into production by many soon after), and the volume was huge from the start (what was it, 4k BPOs purchased in the first week ? or some other outrageously high value)... and as soon as the components hit the market en-masse, another sharp price drop happened.
The price drop curve wasn't flat at all, it was a sharp drop early, then slowing down, a second sharp drop when component prices dropped sharply, already almost going to a "barely sustainable" level even before.

If you want to compare T3 ships with something, better compare them with T2 battleships or T2 freighters, since they have a much more similar manufacture process (just replace invention with reverse engineering).
T2 battleships had all components available, T2 freighters needed new kinds of components.
It didn't really take long for them to drop to sustainable levels, and T2 freighters actually sell BELOW invention and manufacture cost most of the time nowadays if you consider component sell order prices (if they even exist on the market).

The problem with T3 ships is that the supply of goods is mostly determined by price, and therefore by demand. If price for components drops, people will stop going into wormholes, since they're risky, hard to navigate, and if they're not also noticeably more profitable than other lower-risk alternatives, shortly after the novelty factor wears off, you will have a DROP in supply volumes.
For everything else, the supply of components wasn't really a novel thing, the only marginal exception being the T2 cap ship components, but even there the effort was quite minimal.
And the truth is, if we are to believe EVENTUALLY T3 ships are supposed to become basically just as affordable as a HAC or at least a CS, then the wormholes and their exploitation methods need to get a serious tweaking from CCP's magic wand.


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