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Mephie
Caldari
School of Applied Knowledge
Posted - 2008.07.06 18:41:00 - [91]
 

Originally by: Kazzac Elentria
Wow people reserving this one?

I have shares to sell of a bridge, anyone interested?


If it's a toll jump bridge in Querious I might be interested. =)
--Meph

jna
Caldari
Infinite Improbability Inc
-Mostly Harmless-
Posted - 2008.07.06 23:30:00 - [92]
 

Originally by: cosmoray
Difficult to scam JNA with a contract for mins.

Just to clarify this specifically, my 4B investment in this enterprise is wholly a cash for shares investment, return paid by dividends - there's no mineral exchange going on, and I have no idea where you got this thought from, Cosmoray.

On another note entirely, I'm very pleased to see other people besides me investing in this opportunity, despite it's rather haphazard initial communication / subsequent reception / Q&A in the forum.

I've already shared my personal opinion of the individuals involved in this offering back on page one of this thread, and won't repeat it again. As always, I strongly urge people to make their own mind up on each and every investment opportunity.

Dallas23
Posted - 2008.07.07 22:54:00 - [93]
 

Originally by: Praetorian I
I'd also like to reserve 250million and I'd like to point out that based on statements made thus far I believe you've over diluted and can operate at significantly less financing, without any impact to the planned 8hour/week work schedule.

Please consider repackaging to a smaller seed amount that maximizes efficient use of revenue at each phase thereby increasing potential rewards at year end to shareholders.


Just as general info Mephie and I spoke with Praetorian on a possible repackage of the IPO. What the numbers came out to be was that we wouold have to cap what dividends payments would to be able to pay, we would also be mining-to-survive™, it would eliminate all safety buffers from the current IPO, and there would not even be enough reserve to afford ships, fittings, and skill books. So it is Mephie's and I's opinion to continue with the current IPO.

--Dallas

cosmoray
Perkone
Posted - 2008.07.08 00:20:00 - [94]
 

This is reverse logic.

The bigger the IPO the more you need to mine.

If you launch a lower IPO you mine less.

Show me your math (detailed), or as they say around here proof or STFU!

Kwint Sommer
Caldari
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2008.07.08 00:49:00 - [95]
 

I dismissed this thing a while ago but since it's somehow still limping along, I too would like to know why you'd rather take much more ISK out up front for what amounts to the same characters being trained? You end up with the same characters either way but this way you have to do a hell of a lot more mining just to brake even, let alone make enough that you actually profit from this enterprise. Why pay interest on 12B when you could be paying it on 8B? If you're only answer to that is "I'm worried I won't always be able to earn enough mining to support the 8B" then you shouldn't be asking for 12B when your profit is dependent on said mining.

CornerStoner
Posted - 2008.07.08 04:37:00 - [96]
 

The majority of the funds would be going towards GTCs. So why you couldn't survive on less funds is beyond me.



Hareld
Posted - 2008.07.08 06:54:00 - [97]
 

Originally by: Kwint Sommer
I dismissed this thing a while ago but since it's somehow still limping along, I too would like to know why you'd rather take much more ISK out up front for what amounts to the same characters being trained? You end up with the same characters either way but this way you have to do a hell of a lot more mining just to brake even, let alone make enough that you actually profit from this enterprise. Why pay interest on 12B when you could be paying it on 8B? If you're only answer to that is "I'm worried I won't always be able to earn enough mining to support the 8B" then you shouldn't be asking for 12B when your profit is dependent on said mining.



1)they need all that money cause they wish to purchase GTCs up front

2)they intend to make the interest payments by mining.

3)the payback of initial investment will largely be from sale of characters, NOT just mining.

I'm not associated in any way with this IPO... I just think this is rather simple and has been stated many times already.

Mephie
Caldari
School of Applied Knowledge
Posted - 2008.07.08 12:18:00 - [98]
 

Originally by: Hareld

1)they need all that money cause they wish to purchase GTCs up front

2)they intend to make the interest payments by mining.

3)the payback of initial investment will largely be from sale of characters, NOT just mining.

I'm not associated in any way with this IPO... I just think this is rather simple and has been stated many times already.


That's exactly what's going on. And that's precisly how simple it is.
Now I'm trying to figure out if I somehow created a sock-puppet while sleeping. Cause that was a little spooky.
--Meph

Mephie
Caldari
School of Applied Knowledge
Posted - 2008.07.08 13:29:00 - [99]
 

Warning Math Ahead:

Ok, 13bil gets us the GTCs up front
Which means all of our mining procedes go to dividends.

If we took, say, 7bil. That would only get some of our GTCs. So we would have to divert dividend money into GTCs. We would also have to cap divs, so they get sweeter as the plan matures, and not tank as we start buying GTCs (by setting aside a bil a month). Now, think about that for a second... let your brain savour it a bit. If we reduced the Initial Investment by 6 bil, we would have to pay out 6 bil less divs.
Now, if these miners were mean Hulk pilots at day 1, then yeah, it's doable; but they're not. We would then have to somehow mine enough in the first 6 months to pay for GTCs while still giving you guys dividends. So we would run into issues starting around month 3 where we have to empty the corp wallet to buy hulks. And then in Month 5 we empty it again to buy more GTCs. Or we keep it empty after paying the capped divs starting with month 2 and buy GTCs as we can afford them. Yes, I'll admit, we would be paying out 2.25% more divs per month on average, but we would also be be mining-to-survive™, running with an empty wallet for most of the operation, and possibly having to go above our 8 hour/week mining schedule to buy GTCs. I like the safety nets I built into the project, I'm not terribly keen on tearing down 3 of them. From where I'm sitting that's riskier than asking for 13bil, buying all the GTCs, and paying divs from mining ops while keeping a pillow of cash in the corp wallet.

So, yeah, we considered a repackage, spent a 2 days chewing on the numbers, and decided against it.
The IPO remains at 13bil, we will host shares on RESX, possibly EGSE to help raise funds as the plan matures.

--Meph

Enihcam Xes
Posted - 2008.07.08 14:50:00 - [100]
 

I think your concept of mining to survive is a little skewed. If you buy the gtc up front you are paying GTC price + interest (in the form of dividend) for the duration of the venture. If you take a smaller IPO and buy the GTC later you are paying GTC price plus less interest for less time on that investment.

I do understand what your saying about dividend rate being adversely affected, but you also need to consider the bottom line when it comes time to sell your characters. If you took in 4 or 5b less your net profits at the end of the year will look a lot better.

On another note the reason I am investing in this IPO is that I don't see anything wrong with a simple "hard-work" based venture. Honestly I feel that the risk involved of whether or not these guys are trustworth and will follow through on this isn't that different from a venture that requires market conditions to be a certain way or what have you.

My isks are sent.

cosmoray
Perkone
Posted - 2008.07.08 17:33:00 - [101]
 

I love maths I really do.
I have had a problem with your maths from the start so I have calculated out your business plan in black and white:

Plan:
1. Create 5 mining character + 2 current (hauler, CS bonus)
2. Train up miners and mine to pay divs
3. Sell miner characters to pay of debt.

Maths:
Assumptions.
At start miners in frigs/cruisers for 2 weeks
Then next 6 weeks in retreivers
At start of month 3 in hulks with full bonuses (retreiver to hulk is 3 days after mining barge V)
Mining normal veldspar, intensive changing roids, survey scanner.
Tritanium = 3 ISk over yr
Slight loss on max rate due to roid burn out, movement to next roid etc. (know this from experience)

Max frigate/cruiser mine rate = 1m hr - 5m hr (5 ships)
Max retreiver rate = 3m hr - 15m hr
Max hulk rate = 8m hr - 40m hr (experience in mining corp with FULL bonuses shows this is about best in high sec, std ore)

Math

Case 1 - 13B IPO (8% divs/interest mnthly)
1.04B ISk per month / 12.48B ISk per yr
GTC covers whole yr

Case 2 - 6B IPO (8% divs/interest mnthly)
0.48B ISK per month / 5.76B ISk per yr
GTC cover 1st six months

Mining rates (8 hrs per week/ 5 miners/ 4 week mnths)
month 1 = 320M
month 2 = 480M
Month 3 - 12 = 1280M
Total = 13.6B

Case 1 Profit = 1.12B
Case 2 Profit = 7.84B
Case 2 2nd 6 mnths GTC purchase (6B)= 7.84 -6
Case 2 Profit = 1.84B

Assume 13B returned through sale of characters.

Assuming you always mine 8 hrs per week through the whole year, you will actually make more money by borrowing less.
As the interest payments are much lower you can finance the GTC's in the second half of the year.

So after this, I can't believe why you would need 13B, when it is more profitable to borrow less. This does not include your mining-to-survive.

Now you probably have 6B in reservations, why not start it now?

cosmoray
Perkone
Posted - 2008.07.08 18:00:00 - [102]
 

In fact if you borrow 3B to fund the first 2 months GTC's and all ships and implants you need, you make even more money.

3B = 240M interest per month = 2.88B per yr.

After month 2 you can pay interest AND buy the GTC's and make 40mil profit (1280 from mining - 1B in GTC's + 240M interest).
At the end of the yr sell the 5 characters for 13B pay back 3B loan and clear 10B profit.

3B is minimum loan to cover the first 2 GTC's and ships.

The maths shows the less you borrow the more cash YOU MAKE!!!!

Now I don't think my maths are wrong, but if they are right the only reason you require 13B is to SCAM?

Nido Gentz
Posted - 2008.07.08 23:12:00 - [103]
 

Originally by: cosmoray
In fact if you borrow 3B to fund the first 2 months GTC's and all ships and implants you need, you make even more money.

3B = 240M interest per month = 2.88B per yr.

After month 2 you can pay interest AND buy the GTC's and make 40mil profit (1280 from mining - 1B in GTC's + 240M interest).
At the end of the yr sell the 5 characters for 13B pay back 3B loan and clear 10B profit.

3B is minimum loan to cover the first 2 GTC's and ships.

The maths shows the less you borrow the more cash YOU MAKE!!!!

Now I don't think my maths are wrong, but if they are right the only reason you require 13B is to SCAM?


Totally agree cosmoray. I can't figure out why they are so adverse to a smaller amount as it improves profitability so much. Granted there is a sense of security in having the funds available but most RL businesses would try to time funds with the use so you don't have X billions sitting on the balance sheet, paying interest on it, and not really generating anything from it. Seems wasteful and inefficient to me.

Mephie
Caldari
School of Applied Knowledge
Posted - 2008.07.09 00:58:00 - [104]
 

Originally by: cosmoray
I love maths I really do.
Maths:
Assumptions.
At start miners in frigs/cruisers for 2 weeks
Then next 6 weeks in retreivers
At start of month 3 in hulks with full bonuses (retreiver to hulk is 3 days after mining barge V)



Problem #1. As you can see in my projected divs, while the characters will be in hulks at the start of month 3, they do *not* have "full bonuses". That happens at Month 5.

Originally by: cosmoray


Case 2 - 6B IPO (8% divs/interest mnthly)
0.48B ISK per month / 5.76B ISk per yr
GTC cover 1st six months

Mining rates (8 hrs per week/ 5 miners/ 4 week mnths)
month 1 = 320M
month 2 = 480M
Month 3 - 12 = 1280M
Total = 13.6B



As with Problem #1, if you actually read the div prospectus, you would realize that I'm not expecting 1.2bil in divs in months 3-4.
As I said in my previous post regarding less initial investment:
Originally by: Mephie

So we would run into issues starting around month 3 where we have to empty the corp wallet to buy hulks. And then in Month 5 we empty it again to buy more GTCs. Or we keep it empty after paying the capped divs starting with month 2 and buy GTCs as we can afford them.



Originally by: cosmoray

Case 1 Profit = 1.12B
Case 2 Profit = 7.84B
Case 2 2nd 6 mnths GTC purchase (6B)= 7.84 -6
Case 2 Profit = 1.84B
Assume 13B returned through sale of characters.



I'm a little confused by these numbers.
If we're assuming that 13B is returned on the characters (this covers the initial investment)
Then since we're simply paying divs on what we mine, why is the profit of case 1 only 1.2bil?
Since even you admit in case one that there's over 12bil of dividends being paid.
And yes, I know, half the shares = twice as much payout per share for the characters, but as I previously stated, I dont like how my projected wallet balances look when I run those numbers. It's too risky IMO. I have shareholders, and I'm not going to increase the risk of the IPO to squeeze out more cash, I think I'm offering enough, and I plan to at least meet my projections, and hopefully exceed them.

Originally by: cosmoray

In fact if you borrow 3B to fund the first 2 months GTC's and all ships and implants you need, you make even more money.
3B = 240M interest per month = 2.88B per yr.
After month 2 you can pay interest AND buy the GTC's and make 40mil profit (1280 from mining - 1B in GTC's + 240M interest).
At the end of the yr sell the 5 characters for 13B pay back 3B loan and clear 10B profit.
3B is minimum loan to cover the first 2 GTC's and ships.
The maths shows the less you borrow the more cash YOU MAKE!!!!
Now I don't think my maths are wrong, but if they are right the only reason you require 13B is to SCAM?



In your own projections you state a total of 800mil being mined in months 1 and 2.
Let me know who you're buying GTCs from and I'll toss you a 10% finders fee. Cause dear god, if I can get five 60day GTCs for 800 mil, this IPO would really take off.
Or is this the 80 hour a month mining that you mentioned in a previous post? Cause as I've said numerous times, 8 hours a week, so we wont burnout.


Originally by: cosmoray

Now you probably have 6B in reservations, why not start it now?



Again, I'll answer you with a quote, maybe you'll read it this time, I know, I know, it's waaaay back on page one. Here you go.

Originally by: Headmaster Lurch

We have the 1.1bil investment from the workers and they have been given thier shares. JNA has reserved 4bil, which gets us to 5.1bil which is rnough to start. The miners have been made, and they are currently training skills.



As an aside, Jna has sent in his money, and he has recieved his shares. As has Enihcam.

--Meph

CornerStoner
Posted - 2008.07.09 00:59:00 - [105]
 

They want to play free for a year! That's why they require 13bil. I dont know what their RL finances are, but $15 per month wouldn't break the bank of anyone I know!

<continue with circular debate>



Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
Posted - 2008.07.09 01:15:00 - [106]
 

Originally by: CornerStoner
They want to play free for a year! That's why they require 13bil. I dont know what their RL finances are, but $15 per month wouldn't break the bank of anyone I know!

<continue with circular debate>




QFT

1) Give isk for gtcs for a year
2) Get bored of mining for other peoples wallets
3) ???
4) Profit

cosmoray
Perkone
Posted - 2008.07.09 01:30:00 - [107]
 

Academic anyway, you won't raise 13B!

Praetorian I
Posted - 2008.07.09 04:59:00 - [108]
 

funds transferred

Kwint Sommer
Caldari
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2008.07.09 05:39:00 - [109]
 

Originally by: cosmoray
Academic anyway, you won't raise 13B!


Sadly people are getting pretty desperate for investments. It's getting to the point where they'll invest in anyone that seems nice enough to not run away with their ISK, regardless of their actually abilities or the quality of their business plan.

YouGotRipped
Ewigkeit
Posted - 2008.07.09 08:38:00 - [110]
 

Edited by: YouGotRipped on 09/07/2008 08:56:14


Originally by: Professor Leech
Originally by: CornerStoner
They want to play free for a year! That's why they require 13bil. I dont know what their RL finances are, but $15 per month wouldn't break the bank of anyone I know!

<continue with circular debate>




QFT

1) Give isk for gtcs for a year
2) Get bored of mining for other peoples wallets
3) ???
4) Profit


Once you assemble the facts and factor in the known risks, run the calculations etc, this IPO is beginning to look more and more like a char flipping operation.

So yes, there will be some mining in the process (logarithmic decrease) but hey, miner chars are highly sought after.
This is not necessarily a bad thing, as a matter fact it adds a failsafe mechanism to the "alleged" focus of the IPO.

Still, I would prefer it being labeled a char flipping operation mainly and adding a casual mining flavor as a secondary focus.

Enihcam Xes
Posted - 2008.07.09 15:42:00 - [111]
 

Edited by: Enihcam Xes on 09/07/2008 15:47:37
A char flipping opperation implies that the profits come from the trade and training of characters. In this case the character trading just repays the (entire) initial investment. IMO its a mining op because all profits beyond repaying capital come from mining.

Although I do understand the notion of reducing your percieved risk by getting enough up front to cover your gtcs, I still think some risk in this area is completely acceptible. Character sales allow you to close down early if things go south, but if the GTCs are pre-purchased then there is no way to recover that capital for your investors. Buying the first 6 months to get past the slower profits doesn't just increase profits but it provides a little insurance against the mineral market going south.

The alternative is to buy the GTCs as a hedge against another unforseen change in price. CCP has already shown they are mixing it up a bit and whos to say more price hikes arn't to follow.

If you do scale back and only buy half your GTCs now you'll have another option, too. If the plan is still profitable in 6mo and you are having trouble raising enough isk to cover GTCs while still paying divs you will be in a much better (more established) position to do a second round of offerings here on the forum. Raise maybe 7b now and 4b in 6mo if you need to. The end result is the same (acually a little better because your divs are high for the first 6mo) and you might earn more confidence from the MD crowd bringing forth a comprehensive plan like this and showing that you will listen to your investors.

Don't take my comments as a jab at your plan. There are a lot of things about it that I like. But it's looking like market pressure (not enough investors) may pressure you into making changes anyway.

-EX

Mysty Doofoff
Posted - 2008.07.10 14:52:00 - [112]
 

250 shares reserved. Funds transferred.

jna
Caldari
Infinite Improbability Inc
-Mostly Harmless-
Posted - 2008.07.10 15:59:00 - [113]
 

Originally by: Mephie

As an aside, Jna has sent in his money, and he has recieved his shares.


Confirming this btw.

Mephie
Caldari
School of Applied Knowledge
Posted - 2008.07.10 19:50:00 - [114]
 

Firstly, I recieved Mysty's investment, and have sent her shares.

Originally by: Enihcam Xes
[
Don't take my comments as a jab at your plan. There are a lot of things about it that I like. But it's looking like market pressure (not enough investors) may pressure you into making changes anyway.
-EX


No worries, I do listen, you and Prae both want reduced initial funds. I sent Prae the spreadsheet I made with projected monthly wallet balances and expenditures, and explained why I thought it was too risky.

Prae, the crazy man he is, sent me back a reworked spreadsheet with weeklyShocked balances and expenditures, and is under the impression that it addresses my reservations. I'll be going through it with a fined tooth comb here momentarily.

For now, please no more reservations. We may be repackaging shortly, and if so, we'll probably already be full. And if we decide not to repackage, we'll simply list the rest of the shares on RESX.

It has been an interesting and educational ride the last week. Now I'm going to look over the spreadsheet Prae sent me, get with my shareholders, and make sure everyone's on board before we finalize any repackage.
--Meph

Slade Trillgon
Endless Possibilities Inc.
Posted - 2008.07.11 17:59:00 - [115]
 

This just popped into my head a day after reading the thread. I am not sure why it has not been brought up. It may be the numbers which I admittedly did not work out, but instead of starting 5 new characters and holding the isk to cover dividends until the miners are in Hulks, why not buy 2 or 3 miner pilots that are already hulk capable. This may make the investment start to pay off sooner. I am not good with numbers, but I have seen hulk pilots going for 2.5-3 bill so you could get 2-3 pilots in Hulks from the get go.

Just an idea, someone else may do the maths since I am not so good with numbers and a pig is calling my name to be put in the pit Smile



Slade

Mephie
Caldari
School of Applied Knowledge
Posted - 2008.07.11 21:35:00 - [116]
 

Originally by: Slade Trillgon
This just popped into my head a day after reading the thread. I am not sure why it has not been brought up. It may be the numbers which I admittedly did not work out, but instead of starting 5 new characters and holding the isk to cover dividends until the miners are in Hulks, why not buy 2 or 3 miner pilots that are already hulk capable. This may make the investment start to pay off sooner. I am not good with numbers, but I have seen hulk pilots going for 2.5-3 bill so you could get 2-3 pilots in Hulks from the get go.

Just an idea, someone else may do the maths since I am not so good with numbers and a pig is calling my name to be put in the pit Smile

Slade


IIRC Ricdic's Hoe mentioned this earlier. I admittedly didnt run the numbers, but I envisioned how that IPO would go:
Hey, forget the 13bil thing, I need 15! 13 to buy up a bunch of miners, and pay for the first round of GTCs. Mine to pay dividends, and at year end, I'll have uber 36mil sp miners that no one on earth could justify buying. =)
Though I guess they could have been miner/research/industrial toons, but I digress.
It could work, if you want some help writing up the IPO for it, I'd be happy to help you out =)

--Meph

Praetorian I
Posted - 2008.07.21 04:41:00 - [117]
 

bump

YouGotRipped
Ewigkeit
Posted - 2008.07.21 05:03:00 - [118]
 

Edited by: YouGotRipped on 21/07/2008 05:04:07
Originally by: Praetorian I
bump


I'm sure you meant "dump". Doesn't seem like the interest will pick up for this IPO.

Praetorian I
Posted - 2008.07.21 20:56:00 - [119]
 

message no 114 + inside knowledge:
  • no more reservations
  • have/will repackage
  • the IPO is financed
  • currently closed to further investors
  • spreadsheets circulated to established investors
  • we agree on the smaller financing
  • very optimistic about plan
  • operation underway

thanks for any constuctive input Cool.

Finedele
Caldari
Marquie-X Corp
Ewoks
Posted - 2008.07.21 22:18:00 - [120]
 

if you have all your money, why that needless bump?


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