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blankseplocked Quarterly Economic Newsletter, 3rd Quarter 2007 by Dr.EyjoG
 
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BAteh
Penumbra Congregatio
Posted - 2007.11.13 20:52:00 - [151]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Thanks for the positive feedback and good discussion.

Data on characters include both active and inactive characters. An in-active character is a character that has not been accessed for some time, but is available for access at any given time.


So, your report contemplates and excludes the rich-as-hell macro miners that were permanently banned?

I hope so.



Altaree
The Graduates
Morsus Mihi
Posted - 2007.11.13 21:10:00 - [152]
 

I am very afraid of the numbers CCP is going to see when they calculate the value of the items in peoples hangers. I know I have a lot of trash in there!

Dr. E,
Any chance we can get an addendum to this report when you remove the low SP players from these totals? The most controversial point is the 9/13/78% breakdown. I think people REALLY want a more accurate tally.

Hamfast
Gallente
Posted - 2007.11.13 21:47:00 - [153]
 

Originally by: Altaree
I am very afraid of the numbers CCP is going to see when they calculate the value of the items in peoples hangers. I know I have a lot of trash in there!

Dr. E,
Any chance we can get an addendum to this report when you remove the low SP players from these totals? The most controversial point is the 9/13/78% breakdown. I think people REALLY want a more accurate tally.


I think a selection of values...
All Characters (this is in the current report)
Trained Characters (Remove low SP Characters)
Active Characters (Training, Active Subscription, has logged in in the last x days (weeks or months))

Values by Account - for SP and Net Worth
Values by Main (per account) - for SP and Worth

While there is something to be said for "Players that may not be playing but can come back at any time" it seems to me to be like trying to vote for a candidate that is not running... there are 2 chances your person will get elected, but "Slim" is out of town...

Dythe
Minmatar
TK Corp
Aegis Consortium
Posted - 2007.11.13 23:43:00 - [154]
 

Originally by: Matthew
Originally by: Ulstan
Mining can introduce new isk if there are NPC buy orders for minerals out there.


Oh, and picking up on this specifically, it's not true.

Mining still only introduces stuff. If there are NPC buy orders, then the act of selling the minerals introduces the isk, not the act of mining them. The existence of NPC buy orders offers a route for miners to generate isk from the results of their mining, but the act of mining itself does not do so.


Nor do items looted from NPCs add ISK to the economy. Both, in fact, are deflationary mechanisms that help counter act the ISK inflation.

Items in (Minerals and mods) counter act ISK in to keep inflation, for a MMOG, in check.

Its actually a very clever system and one I would love to see used in a Fantasy setting.

Cker Heel
The Graduates
Morsus Mihi
Posted - 2007.11.14 00:31:00 - [155]
 

Originally by: Altaree
The most controversial point is the 9/13/78% breakdown. I think people REALLY want a more accurate tally.


Exclude whoever whoever want, but I bet it won't make a big difference. The main reason to be in 0.0 is combat. Economically 0.0 just is not that attractive.

Low-end economic actors, such as new or very casual players, work in empire for the safety. High-end economic actors -- t2/capital production -- work in empire for market synergy (and safety).

The big value-add work like trading or t2 ship building all happens in empire. Even reacting makes enough profit so it is not worthwhile to put reaction pos in sov bonus systems. Best results are to react in low sec close to Jita.

Since the economic incentive is slight, the only characters anxious to be in 0.0 are the PVP combat characters.

The entire top ten ship list is composed of ships for missioning, ratting, mining and hauling. Most characters are not engaged in 0.0 combat.


That would be the biggest conclusion I jumped to from the newsletter -- 0.0 is not worth fighting for. Whoever bothers to claim 0.0 systems will extract the ore and moon minerals and send them directly to empire, where the real profits are made.

Segmentation Fault
Minmatar
Rim Collection RC
Test Alliance Please Ignore
Posted - 2007.11.14 00:40:00 - [156]
 

Thanks for taking the time to compile and present this information. I have a couple questions after reviewing the newsletter:

1) Aren't economic reports normally given for fiscal years? It threw me off a bit initially when trying to establish a frame of reference for things like the predicted user bases.
2) Would you mind including second order statistics into the histograms and line graphs? I believe it more beneficial to see the variance/stddev when presenting mean data, especially when it concerns so many data points.

I think Eve definitely is upping the bar by even presenting a newsletter such as this. Nice work.

Serenity Steele
Dynamic Data Distribution
Posted - 2007.11.14 01:07:00 - [157]
 

Thanks Dr.EyjoG, was an interesting read indeed, particularly about the % players in Low/0.0 sec.

While I understand that the skills area isn't really "economic" other than setting the background, I think the posts here show a large interest in seeing exactly where they're placed.

Looking forward to the next report.


Darome
Posted - 2007.11.14 02:06:00 - [158]
 

I do not know if anyone else mentioned this, to many comments to go through, but would there be any idea of balancing the char generation of the races? With more than a third of chars being Caldari is it a matter of perception that Caldari is a better choice or is it really true that the Caldari line makes better chars?
Are missiles just that much better or easier then guns and lasers? Is the tracking issue much bigger in peoples minds and they therefore automatically go for missiles?
Some discussion on this would be appreciated.

Kiera Algehn
Darkstorm Command
Posted - 2007.11.14 03:50:00 - [159]
 

Dr. EyjoG -

Excellent evaluation! I look forward to seeing more like this in the future.

One question: Figure 21 lists the price index comparison of Hyperions versus Dominixes in the Forge versus all regions. The red and purple lines are listed as Dominixes, whereas the blue and greens are Hyperions. Based on my industrial experience and the approximate levels of those lines, I'm assuming the index is in millions of isk. My question is this: are these two references reversed? I don't have my calculations at hand right now, but I could have sworn the Dominix hovered around 60m and the Hyperion around 90-100m. The chart, however, says the opposite?

Cheers!
- K

Paddlefoot Aeon
SiN. Corp
Daisho Syndicate
Posted - 2007.11.14 05:33:00 - [160]
 

Originally by: Darome
I do not know if anyone else mentioned this, to many comments to go through, but would there be any idea of balancing the char generation of the races? With more than a third of chars being Caldari is it a matter of perception that Caldari is a better choice or is it really true that the Caldari line makes better chars?
Are missiles just that much better or easier then guns and lasers? Is the tracking issue much bigger in peoples minds and they therefore automatically go for missiles?
Some discussion on this would be appreciated.



Achura bloodline gives the best overall new character generation stats. Therefore, when ppl create a new character, they tend toward the Achura bloodline of the caldari (starts with 3 Charisma)

Ramblin Man
Empyreum
Posted - 2007.11.14 07:13:00 - [161]
 

CCP Dr.EyjoG: Impressive!!
(Honestly no suggestions, as I imagine your data gathering is more constrained by time / access than lack of desire / imagination Wink)

Nyphur et al.: Also impressive!
(I missed that thread when it was posted, but it shows that you guys put a lot of work into it. Truly, an example of the better bits of MMO communities. Smile)

dor amwar
Sebiestor Tribe
Posted - 2007.11.14 10:02:00 - [162]
 

Edited by: dor amwar on 14/11/2007 10:10:08
Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Thanks for the positive feedback and good discussion.

Data on characters include both active and inactive characters. An in-active character is a character that has not been accessed for some time, but is available for access at any given time. We have seen several examples of characters which have been reactivated after the release of the Linux and Mac clients, and for some reason people seem to come back to EVE, even after several months or even a year away. I wonder why Smile!
That is really the main reason why we decided to keep the in-active accounts in all the character statistics, i.e. it was difficult to identify "truly" in-active characters. But the suggestions from this thread has been great and lets see if I can come up with some new numbers for the next Dev blog, based on the suggestions in this thread.

Quantifying loot items is also a task that we are currently working on and will be part of the January QEN where we plan to make the first attempt to publish the GDP for EVE, or should we call it the GUP (Gross Universe Production)?


Dr. EyjoG


what you have just told us then is these numbers are hugely skewed and that eve does not have the following we are led to believe. assuming this includes all the trial accounts that have been created and the alts on accounts that have rarely been used.

- trial accounts created but only played a short while and then did not like the game.
- players that want to rant on the forums that create a trial account and then leave it sit, and just create a new one whe their reputation gets bad enough.
- players that need an alt for a short while and create a trail account and don't bother to biomass it.

i'm sure there are many more reasons why accounts are created but then just left to sit.

i don't see how we can have accurate stats on the economics of eve without an accurate picture of who makes up th universe. as far as the growth of eve there is a difference in player growth and account/character growth. i don't think that ccp would like to show the number of inactive noob accounts as it would show too much of their actual bottom line. it would also show the number of people or could be interpreted as people that said, 'no thanks' and would be hard for the marketing people to show. assuming it is correct and the numbers do include trail accounts (they can return to the game at any time)...

Sun Liping
Posted - 2007.11.14 12:00:00 - [163]
 

Originally by: Venkul Mul

There is at least 1 agent that allow you to reach 5.5 if you do him after reaching 5.0.



Hi Venkul,
my impression was that only when in gang you somehow managed sidestepped the limit of 5.0 and even that might not be possible anymore since the recent patches ( only reached 5.0 recently, and dont do much in gangs, so I cant say for certain).

Is there any chance for you to share which agent you mean?
Or is it somehow related to cosmos agents or certain corps/divisions or special missions?


Jowen Datloran
Caldari
Science and Trade Institute
Posted - 2007.11.14 13:03:00 - [164]
 

Originally by: Ulstan
Account averages are far far less useful than looking only at mains.

Of course, if you exclude anyone with less than 1 mill xp, then the account average *would* be the main, unless for some bizarre reason someone is trying to train two characters simultaneously.


Me me me!Laughing

Two of my characters are both in the 10-20 mill skill point range and are competing about having the highest amount of SP. My third character has 8 mill skill points, again one the same account.

Jowen Datloran
Caldari
Science and Trade Institute
Posted - 2007.11.14 13:19:00 - [165]
 

Originally by: Avon

No inflation?
Heh.

Take away the artificial constraints on pricing and you would soon see how much inflationary pressure has built up. As it is, all you can see is inflation in the small areas of the economy where it can actually mainifest itself, and as previously mentioned, that "luxury" goods are becomming the norm because players have more isk than they know what to do with.



Is this not a prime example of deflation that you are putting up? As in, I can get more/better items for a certain amount of isk now than a year ago.

Inflation would make me have to buy poorer quality items for a certain amount of isk than a year ago.

I was going to write a long and technical explanation about this, but then I remembered that nobody cares about that stuff on the Internet.

Mangold
Mad Bombers
Guns and Alcohol
Posted - 2007.11.14 13:45:00 - [166]
 

Originally by: Kiera Algehn

One question: Figure 21 lists the price index comparison of Hyperions versus Dominixes in the Forge versus all regions. The red and purple lines are listed as Dominixes, whereas the blue and greens are Hyperions. Based on my industrial experience and the approximate levels of those lines, I'm assuming the index is in millions of isk. My question is this: are these two references reversed? I don't have my calculations at hand right now, but I could have sworn the Dominix hovered around 60m and the Hyperion around 90-100m. The chart, however, says the opposite?

Cheers!
- K


It's not millions. It's index. They start at index 100 and the hyperion has dropped 40% in price while the Dominix has dropped 10%. That's what the chart says.

Avon
Caldari
Versatech Co.
Raiden.
Posted - 2007.11.14 14:23:00 - [167]
 

Originally by: Jowen Datloran

Is this not a prime example of deflation that you are putting up? As in, I can get more/better items for a certain amount of isk now than a year ago.

Inflation would make me have to buy poorer quality items for a certain amount of isk than a year ago.

I was going to write a long and technical explanation about this, but then I remembered that nobody cares about that stuff on the Internet.


No, it is a prime example of an artificially constrained economy.
The pressure is there for inflation, and for the economy to work correctly in a balanced manner in its current state there needs to be price inflation.
However, the constraints in place make that very general inflation impossible.
Where inflation is possible it is seen.

The arguement that the economy is fine because no inflation is seen is flawed if that inflation can not take place.

The pressure is there, and in a free market unconstrained by artificial game mechanics it would be easy to see.

We hear it said that the Eve economy is undergoing deflation, and that is how it looks if you are unaware of the artificial price ceilings that effectively constrain the market.


However, my point was more about the interpretation of the statistics, and the statistical model used in general.
The figures may be right, but that does not mean they are the right figures.

Jason Edwards
Internet Tough Guy
Spreadsheets Online
Posted - 2007.11.14 14:44:00 - [168]
 

Edited by: Jason Edwards on 14/11/2007 14:47:32
Most of the generic statistics in the pdf are obviously quite inaccurate as stated by others in the thread.

Take the whole npc source of income(faucet). My one character can earn like 10-15mil an hour running lvl4s. While my one alt character that I am developing goes and kills a couple 3000isk rats every once in awhile.

They get averaged together??? That's wacky.

Now the things which seem to interest me and I do believe are rather accurate are a few of the market averages. Though obviously the same details are well known and you can get these details from many different sources... updated like daily... not some quarterly report.

For example:

Figure 17: Low end minerals show a mix of price changes over the time period. Tritanium and mexallon increase in price during the third quarter but pyerite and isogen reduce in price.

Which is quite interesting and is also why you make more isk by mining plagiclases rather than omber or kernite. Most likely and possibly due because people farm missions like enemies abound 1 of 5 and downing the slavers 2 of 2. Which has a decent amount of omber. If enough people are farming these... they can generate quite a bit of minerals hugely increasing the sort of balanced amount that gets spawned in belts.

The other interesting graph is the hyperion/dominix index. Basically in essence it shows a very highly linked price to jita-the forge. Which frankly I'm of the opinion that anyone building large quantities of these ships also need a pretty high quantity of minerals... which getting larger quantities outside of the major trade hubs is much more difficult. So I'm thinking that this link is far more out of the base that it's harder to transport minerals outside regions and such. They buy in the forge, they build in the forge, and then sell in the forge.

Now the other key interest here is how hyperions dropped over 40% in price since last year. Now im not 100% sure when the hyperions were introduced into the game... I suspect nov-ish last year I'm guessing. Basically when they come out.... people are producing at me=0 and are taking that wastage factor and the consumer pays for that waste. After 1-2 months... the researched me=15 to me=30 bpos are rolling off the line and now they are producing for far less. Meaning less wastage and those savings roll on down to the consumer. Its the good old walmart sweatshop moto i guess.

While the domi only drops maybe 10-15% which is basically the major bpos going from the me=30 to say me=60. You don't save much... but you do save maybe another 10%. Which means you can lower your price below your competitors and still make profit.

Captain Schmungles
Caldari
Freelancing Corp
Confederation of Independent Corporations
Posted - 2007.11.14 18:14:00 - [169]
 

A few comments:

1. If you could somehow exclude all characters who have not trained a skill in the past month, that might eliminate most alts and make your data more accurate.

2. I wonder if you could calculate (in a future blog or QEN) the purchasing power of 1 ISK and then show us how that has increased/decreased since the game was initially released. It would provide a lot of perspective to possible arguments about inflation and how inflation affects the economy.

3. Also, could you calculate and show how wealth distribution has changed over time?

4. It would be nice if you could look at the numbers for insurance, especially to see if insurance is making or losing money (no self-respecting insurance company would be non-profit).

5. I would really enjoy a dev blog devoted to market hubs. It would be interesting if you could compare Jita with previous market hubs and compare them, specifically comparing prices at the hub to prices everywhere else and the average number of transactions performed daily at that hub.

6. You'll probably note that a great deal of this comment is about reconstructing what Eve's economy looked like before CCP hired you. Depending on what CCP keeps in its database, you might not be able to go that far back. However, having detailed information about what the economy was like before will certainly help to inform observations about what the economy is like now and will allow you (and us) to make better inferences about market trends.

Vitaki
Rens 911
Posted - 2007.11.14 23:25:00 - [170]
 

I have a *ton of market and science alts with over 2m sp. These alts are worthless without trade skills at 4 and advanced lab op 4 and that kind of stuff, not to mention a manufacturing alt with more than 5m sp. So I'd agree that you should just use the one character per account with the highest sp. I'm the only person I know that has alts with more than 5m sp though.

*I think 9?

Goumindong
SniggWaffe
Posted - 2007.11.15 01:53:00 - [171]
 

Originally by: Avon
I'm afraid pretty much the whole report only demonstrates the crazy conclusions that can be drawn from misunderstood statistics.

No inflation?
Heh.

Take away the artificial constraints on pricing and you would soon see how much inflationary pressure has built up. As it is, all you can see is inflation in the small areas of the economy where it can actually mainifest itself, and as previously mentioned, that "luxury" goods are becomming the norm because players have more isk than they know what to do with.


I'm not saying that the good doctor isn't doing a worthwhile job, because undoubtedly he has put a lot of effort in to all of this.
Unfortunately, looking at the statistics presented, and the conclusions drawn from them, I don't think he "gets" Eve.

The limitations that are in place due to the game mechanics *must* be fully understood before any meaningful information can be extracted from the statistical soup.


What inflationary pressure? Inflation occurs when the money supply increases at a rate faster than the real GGP[that would be real Gross Galaxy Product] occurs. If isk is transfered into minerals at NPC price cap rates then real GGP is increasing in equilibrium with money supply.

This means that any such price caps actually reduce inflationary pressures by removing isk from the game and transfering it into item wealth. Price floors such as insurance do the exact opposite, transfering items into money.

But the real issue is "is the amount of stuff increasing to counter act the money supply" and the answer, based on the data showing the amount of minerals, salvage, and datacores being produced clearly indicates that this is happening.

Nukleanis
Falcon Advanced Industries
Posted - 2007.11.15 11:19:00 - [172]
 

There's a small part of me that's buzzing with excitement at the thought of a doctor of economics reading this. :)

As someone with little interest in economics in general, I'm one of those (annoying) people that looks at recent market trends in EVE and tries to make a few ISK here and there by making awful predictions. Having said that, the good doctor has certainly managed to create a quarterly report that is easy to digest, yet contains plenty of information that is relevant and interesting, both to the playerbase in general and (obviously) our resident market gurus.

Now, if only you could help me sell the 400 or so corpses I have in my hangar. No-one wants to buy them :(

Avon
Caldari
Versatech Co.
Raiden.
Posted - 2007.11.15 12:56:00 - [173]
 

Originally by: Goumindong

What inflationary pressure? Inflation occurs when the money supply increases at a rate faster than the real GGP[that would be real Gross Galaxy Product] occurs. If isk is transfered into minerals at NPC price cap rates then real GGP is increasing in equilibrium with money supply.


Inflationary pressure is not the same as inflation - inflation is just a symptom.

Imagine a world where you can produce eveything you need, and the raw materials are easily available at a fixed price.
If you inject money in to that system from nowhere everyday people either end up with more stuff (up to the maximum it is possible for them to produce), and / or more money.
There is no price inflation, because the material costs are fixed.

If in the same senario the raw materials were not automatically available at a fixed price, and there was competition for those resources (because you couldn't just buy them from an artificial market), the cost of those raw materials would be part of a competetive market, and injection of capital in to that market would cause prices to rise.

The inflationary pressure is the same in both cases, the same amount of money is being injected in to the system, but only in the later senario is that pressure able to express itself in the form of classic price inflation.

Eve is much more like the first example than the second (with some notable exceptions - and they do indeed show price inflation). The pressure is there - it is just unable to manifest due to the restrictions of the game mechanics.

If you judge wealth as a comparison of the financial status of those around you, the baseline has increased drastically over the years. 100mil isk was once a truely incredible amount of wealth. Battleships were rare, and cruisers were a "good ship" to own. Meta variants of T1 modules were luxury items, and T2 was unheard of.
The situation today is very different.
If price inflation was unrestriced, a cruiser would cost much more, because it would be what people could typically be expected to afford. That's what inflation does, it keeps your apparent wealth the same.
So, 10mil isk used to buy you a cruiser, and a "standard" fit, and pretty much still will. So no inflation, right?
Well, no, because now a cruiser is not seen as a good ship compared with what those around you have. It is well below the current wealth baseline.
In the "real world" the cruiser would not still be an option. Your old ship would have been replaced by the manufacturers with the latest model, and it would now be a shiny HAC, or something similar, costing many times the price of the old baseline ship.
The restrictions imposed on the economy give us artificial price caps, and as technology does not become obselete the wealth baseline seems to be an indicator of real wealth rather than a demonstration of the limitations of the economic model. The inflationary pressure is still apparent, you just have to know how to see it.
You need more money to "keep up", which is effectively the same as devaluation of your ISK.

It seems like the economic models being used in this report do not take in to account the fundamental differences between a free market economy and the approximation of one which Eve uses.
I'm sure that the economic model being used will be refined, and I honestly think the whole concept of these reports is a good one, and in very capable hands.

Juha85
Free Lapland
The Kadeshi
Posted - 2007.11.15 13:51:00 - [174]
 

Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
Originally by: Darome
I do not know if anyone else mentioned this, to many comments to go through, but would there be any idea of balancing the char generation of the races? With more than a third of chars being Caldari is it a matter of perception that Caldari is a better choice or is it really true that the Caldari line makes better chars?
Are missiles just that much better or easier then guns and lasers? Is the tracking issue much bigger in peoples minds and they therefore automatically go for missiles?
Some discussion on this would be appreciated.



Achura bloodline gives the best overall new character generation stats. Therefore, when ppl create a new character, they tend toward the Achura bloodline of the caldari (starts with 3 Charisma)



This is false. Which bloodline gives you the best attributes depends solely on what you want to do. If you are for example going to train a pure combat character achura wouldn't be the optimal choice but rather something with the highest possible perc+will combination.

Venkul Mul
Gallente
Posted - 2007.11.15 14:17:00 - [175]
 

Edited by: Venkul Mul on 15/11/2007 14:18:50
Originally by: Jowen Datloran
Originally by: Ulstan
Account averages are far far less useful than looking only at mains.

Of course, if you exclude anyone with less than 1 mill xp, then the account average *would* be the main, unless for some bizarre reason someone is trying to train two characters simultaneously.


Me me me!Laughing

Two of my characters are both in the 10-20 mill skill point range and are competing about having the highest amount of SP. My third character has 8 mill skill points, again one the same account.


I think I have an even worse example: my R&D account:

first character, highest SP (about 10 million SP), currently almost inactive;

second character, almost 3 million SP, currently not training but running multiple missions every day;

third character, little more than 1,5 million SP, but he is the one current training, he is doing 1 mission day in the same station giving trytanium to the R&D agent.

So define who is the main. Shocked


Sun Liping, sent the reply in game to your character, have luck.

Washell Olivaw
Posted - 2007.11.15 15:09:00 - [176]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Thanks for the positive feedback and good discussion.

Data on characters include both active and inactive characters. An in-active character is a character that has not been accessed for some time, but is available for access at any given time. We have seen several examples of characters which have been reactivated after the release of the Linux and Mac clients, and for some reason people seem to come back to EVE, even after several months or even a year away. I wonder why Smile!
That is really the main reason why we decided to keep the in-active accounts in all the character statistics, i.e. it was difficult to identify "truly" in-active characters. But the suggestions from this thread has been great and lets see if I can come up with some new numbers for the next Dev blog, based on the suggestions in this thread.

Quantifying loot items is also a task that we are currently working on and will be part of the January QEN where we plan to make the first attempt to publish the GDP for EVE, or should we call it the GUP (Gross Universe Production)?


Dr. EyjoG


I'm interested in economics, never had any formal training in it though. But one of the things I noticed in reports from the dutch government is that they often deal in households/families. Wouldn't that be the proper tool(s) to deal with multiple characters on a single account?

Danii
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
Posted - 2007.11.15 15:49:00 - [177]
 

Edited by: Danii on 15/11/2007 15:49:11
CBA to read all 8 pages, so sorry if someone has already said this, but as there are a huge number of people in mission running & industrial ships, is it still valid to say that EvE is a PvP game (and other aspects of it are an irrelevance)?

Fastercart
Gallente
Ornery Cantankerous Curmudgeons
Posted - 2007.11.15 16:14:00 - [178]
 

Originally by: Juha85
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
Achura bloodline gives the best overall new character generation stats. Therefore, when ppl create a new character, they tend toward the Achura bloodline of the caldari (starts with 3 Charisma)



This is false. Which bloodline gives you the best attributes depends solely on what you want to do. If you are for example going to train a pure combat character achura wouldn't be the optimal choice but rather something with the highest possible perc+will combination.
You also have to take into account what ships a player wants to initially fly. Yes, Brutor Slave Child gives the highest possible Perc+will. But if one wants to PVE instead of PVP (or at least initially), then Achura Monks is best for that person.

Ilor Prophet
Posted - 2007.11.15 18:37:00 - [179]
 

The 3QEN is very interesting, and it's clear that Dr. Eyjo is trying to get a handle on what's going on in the EVE economy. Others have already made a number of sound recommendations as pertains to discounting inactive characters or untrained alts, and grouping ISK per account.

But while the analysis of inflationary and deflationary pressures is interesting, it misses one key point: the economy of EVE has implicit assumptions about availability of resources. Nowhere has Dr. Eyjo's analysis dealt with this arbitrary game mechanic as it relates to the economy.

By way of example, let us look at not just the mineral market, but rather the mineral market as it pertains to the mining industry.

No one will deny that EVE has seen some pretty drastic price fluctuations in minerals over the last few months (these date almost exactly to the opening of the drone regions). In and of themselves, price fluctuations in various markets are to be expected, and in some sense "that's life." Okay, fine, but EVE has built-in assumptions aboubout what resources are where. The distribution of ores (and thus minerals) is not even. As the security of a system gets lower, the quality of mineral gets (or should get) higher. It's the standard mantra of "risk vs. reward," and is one of the cornerstones upon which the game is based.

But because of the changes to the game that affect the mineral market, this is no longer the case. Consider the following: A pilot with Mining V, Astrogeology V, and Mining Barge V flying a Covetor. This Covetor has T2 strips with T1 crystals. Assuming the skills and standings necessary to generate perfect refines, higher quality ores should produce higher returns. And if you use the base price of minerals, that's exactly what you find.

But if you use the going price for minerals (as sampled from an aggregate of orders in The Forge this morning), the high prices of Trit and low prices of Isogen and Nocxium totally skew those numbers. Shown here is the amount of ISK a pilot could make per hour mining the various ores with our ideal Covetor:

Ore.............ISK/hr
Arkonor......19,344,051.36
Bistot.......20,116,722.24
Crokite......21,757,965.70
Dark Ochre...11,120,410.88
Gneiss.......11,952,690.82
Hedbergite....6,358,354.39
Hemorphite....4,958,590.86
Jaspet........4,109,953.81
Kernite.......7,268,751.33
Mercoxit.....27,129,785.86
Omber.........4,707,063.72
Plagioclase...6,933,509.54
Pyroxeres.....5,562,720.85
Scordite......6,430,535.81
Spodumain.....4,319,105.28
Veldspar......6,689,944.14

As you can see, Veldspar ranks 9th on the list. As the simplest, most basic, and commonest of the ores, it should rank last (18th). Furthermore, it is significantly more profitable than Jaspet, Hemorphite, and Omber, and marginally more profitable than Hedbergite, all of which are found almost exclusively in lowsec (or in very limited amounts in hi-sec, in the case of Omber).

What does this tell us? Most clearly that given the current mineral prices, the reward isn't there for the risks (especially in lowsec, but to a certain extent in 0.0). And if the shuttle price cap on trit is removed, the problem will get even worse. When you can make more ISK mining in safe space than you can in lowsec, something has gone fundamentally wrong.

To be Continued...

Aprudena Gist
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
Posted - 2007.11.15 18:43:00 - [180]
 

Originally by: Ilor Prophet
The 3QEN is very interesting, and it's clear that Dr. Eyjo is trying to get a handle on what's going on in the EVE economy. Others have already made a number of sound recommendations as pertains to discounting inactive characters or untrained alts, and grouping ISK per account.

But while the analysis of inflationary and deflationary pressures is interesting, it misses one key point: the economy of EVE has implicit assumptions about availability of resources. Nowhere has Dr. Eyjo's analysis dealt with this arbitrary game mechanic as it relates to the economy.

By way of example, let us look at not just the mineral market, but rather the mineral market as it pertains to the mining industry.

No one will deny that EVE has seen some pretty drastic price fluctuations in minerals over the last few months (these date almost exactly to the opening of the drone regions). In and of themselves, price fluctuations in various markets are to be expected, and in some sense "that's life." Okay, fine, but EVE has built-in assumptions aboubout what resources are where. The distribution of ores (and thus minerals) is not even. As the security of a system gets lower, the quality of mineral gets (or should get) higher. It's the standard mantra of "risk vs. reward," and is one of the cornerstones upon which the game is based.

But because of the changes to the game that affect the mineral market, this is no longer the case. Consider the following: A pilot with Mining V, Astrogeology V, and Mining Barge V flying a Covetor. This Covetor has T2 strips with T1 crystals. Assuming the skills and standings necessary to generate perfect refines, higher quality ores should produce higher returns. And if you use the base price of minerals, that's exactly what you find.

But if you use the going price for minerals (as sampled from an aggregate of orders in The Forge this morning), the high prices of Trit and low prices of Isogen and Nocxium totally skew those numbers. Shown here is the amount of ISK a pilot could make per hour mining the various ores with our ideal Covetor:

Ore.............ISK/hr
Arkonor......19,344,051.36
Bistot.......20,116,722.24
Crokite......21,757,965.70
Dark Ochre...11,120,410.88
Gneiss.......11,952,690.82
Hedbergite....6,358,354.39
Hemorphite....4,958,590.86
Jaspet........4,109,953.81
Kernite.......7,268,751.33
Mercoxit.....27,129,785.86
Omber.........4,707,063.72
Plagioclase...6,933,509.54
Pyroxeres.....5,562,720.85
Scordite......6,430,535.81
Spodumain.....4,319,105.28
Veldspar......6,689,944.14

As you can see, Veldspar ranks 9th on the list. As the simplest, most basic, and commonest of the ores, it should rank last (18th). Furthermore, it is significantly more profitable than Jaspet, Hemorphite, and Omber, and marginally more profitable than Hedbergite, all of which are found almost exclusively in lowsec (or in very limited amounts in hi-sec, in the case of Omber).

What does this tell us? Most clearly that given the current mineral prices, the reward isn't there for the risks (especially in lowsec, but to a certain extent in 0.0). And if the shuttle price cap on trit is removed, the problem will get even worse. When you can make more ISK mining in safe space than you can in lowsec, something has gone fundamentally wrong.

To be Continued...



What this tells us is that there aren't enough people mining veldspar and enough people mining other stuff.


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