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blankseplocked Quarterly Economic Newsletter, 3rd Quarter 2007 by Dr.EyjoG
 
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Zarch AlDain
GK inc.
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:19:00 - [61]
 

Originally by: Ulstan
Superb break down of information.

I find it interesting that gallente characters, on the average, appear to have the most skill points, with Caldari right behind them (no doubt thanks to the archura).

I notice that Amarr pilots tend to have more points in space ship command than others, which is probably them all cross training for other races vessels. ;)

Caldari population is higher, which is not surprising given that they get billed as the 'fighter race'. The vast bulk of caldari accounts appear to be used for mission running and not PvP, if you examine the security status graph.

The top 10 ships: you have 3 haulers, a mining barge, a lineup of caldari pve boats and then... the rifter, an excellent pvp frigate.

It looks like most of eve is fairly pve oriented, but there is hope! 1/10 players seem to have killed someone unprovoked :)

Speaking of low sec, I was quite honestly surprised to learn that 13% of the population is in low sec compared to 9% for 0.0. Of all the enormous empires out there in 0.0, there must be a *ton* of people running around in low sec, which makes me think the 'low sec isn't populated' complaints coming from pirates are mostly indicative of them being unable to pry themselves off a gate camp and actually make the effort to go out and find people.




Oh there are lots of people in low sec. They are all running tech 1 fitted stabbed haulers on macros carying 3000 units of garbage.

Ambo
I've Got Nothing
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:20:00 - [62]
 

An interesting read. Thanks.

Valator Uel
Caldari
Mercenaries of Andosia
Northern Coalition.
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:32:00 - [63]
 

Originally by: Andrue
Originally by: Valator Uel
[snip]I am Caldari yet I fly Amarr ships. I hope you understand what I mean
I'm Amarrian but fly Caldari ships so that cancels you out, right there Laughing


You cannot draw conclusions based on a single coincidence. What if 10% of Caldari chars fly Amarr and 50% of Amarr chars fly Caldari? Then the statistics change A LOT (although these are exagerated hypothetical numbers).

Sea Edge
Amarr
Posted - 2007.11.12 18:12:00 - [64]
 

Originally by: Valator Uel
Originally by: Andrue
Originally by: Valator Uel
[snip]I am Caldari yet I fly Amarr ships. I hope you understand what I mean
I'm Amarrian but fly Caldari ships so that cancels you out, right there Laughing


You cannot draw conclusions based on a single coincidence. What if 10% of Caldari chars fly Amarr and 50% of Amarr chars fly Caldari? Then the statistics change A LOT (although these are exagerated hypothetical numbers).


Amarr players 16%, T1 Amarr ships 14,3%, T2 Amarr ships 20%.

adriaans
Amarr
Ankaa.
Nair Al-Zaurak
Posted - 2007.11.12 18:16:00 - [65]
 

interesting readVery Happy

when does more come? Wink

Nyphur
Pillowsoft
Posted - 2007.11.12 18:24:00 - [66]
 

Edited by: Nyphur on 12/11/2007 18:50:22

Remember when I said this economist fellow should be put to proper use and do something useful for his wages? This is exactly what I had in mind. I'm extremely impressed.

EDIT:
I am wondering about one thing, though. If you're intent on getting shuttle prices increased to uncap the trit prices, are you also in favour of removing all other caps in basket prices in the form of other npc-sold ships and insurance payouts? Additionally, are you not worried that with the mineral prices completely diverging from established original conditions (npc values), that mining as a profession is harmed?

Currently, mining in highsec is worth more than mining in lowsec and that's not how it was intended to be. If trit prices are uncapped, not only will new upper and lower caps establish themselves based on insurance and other npc-sold ships and items (probes etc) but the profitability of mining will be skewed further toward high security space and away from low security space. I did post a possible solution that I think would work well alongside the uncapping of eve's mineral markets but I'm afraid that even that won't be enough if insurance and npc-sold refinables are allowed to affect tech 1 mineral basket prices.


Also, I think your analysis of the isk and asset sink and faucet systems was oversimplistic. I would guess that isn't through lack of understanding of the system because plenty of players have already described the isk and asset sinks and faucets in eve in great detail. Still, I'd still like to see a better breakdown of them which includes some numbers and graphs.

Trent Nichols
Di-Tron Heavy Industries
Atlas Alliance
Posted - 2007.11.12 18:28:00 - [67]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG


The numbers I see bring up an important question; Are the characters you measured only from active accounts or are inactive accounts included in this as well? Since inactive account information is not deleted, these statistics would include players who tried the game for a few days but didn't stay and alts that were used for the trial period and then abandoned.

If you did only include active accounts please disregard this. If you didn't, I think collecting information only from active accounts would provide a much better picture of the current population.

Kvarium Ki
Igneus Auctorita
GoonSwarm
Posted - 2007.11.12 18:42:00 - [68]
 

What I would be really interested in is how much isk is beeing introduced in the game from activities in 0.0 compared to the population there. It seems to me like 0.0 is totaly useless for making isk these days, that's why so many of us have alts in empire running missions or building stuff.

If this is the case, what's the incentive to live in 0.0?


Lysander Memnos
The Graduates
Brutally Clever Empire
Posted - 2007.11.12 18:48:00 - [69]
 

Fantastic job! I certainly appreciate the way this QEN was composed, as it was accessible without losing too much hard data.

I would love to see a further breakdown of the ISK Faucets and Sinks. Average amount earned for L1/2/3/4/5 missions (before and after bounties?), drone region payouts, amount of ISK spent on skills versus trade items, etc. Since it seems that inflation is part of the general economic trend for 2007, a detailed analysis of the Faucets/Sinks might help determine any measures taken (or not, if the various factions care to play economic roulette). Knowing just how much the T2 invention changes affected the economy would also be very, very interesting.

Cheers!

Levrin Atischa
Posted - 2007.11.12 18:51:00 - [70]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG


I think you certainly have a good point new players should be included in the demographics. As read in the replys following your post there are different views on what would and wouldn't be intresting about characters under or around 1m skillpoints. Maybe it's a nice idea to present a breakdown of characters around 1m skillpoints in the next newsletter.
A suggestion of the breakdown could be:
-inactive characters on active accounts (found by last active in corp)
-genuine new players (characters that are actively skilling and not at all old)
-scouting alts (minimal skills but moved away from the core systems)
-cyno alts (characters with almost only cyno skills)
-trading/hauling/purchase alts (low skills large amount of isk)

I would personaly use only the genuine new players in the other demographics figures as it might present a more intresting picture but of course thats only a guess. Using account avarages will filter out the low sp character but it will distort the view of ppl that for example have multiple industrial accounts on one char(maybe bought one or something) these accounts will then be ranked with the top sp players. In my opinion low sp characters are also part of eve everybody uses them so they are part of our population. If account avarages will be presented the results will probably shift and a true demographic of the characters in eve will not be presented.

All in all i really liked the report and am looking forward to the next one.

Cautet
Celestial Apocalypse
Posted - 2007.11.12 19:34:00 - [71]
 

Edited by: Cautet on 13/11/2007 00:45:58
First, thanks so much, great read.

I wondered on the isk sink/faucet issue whether the isk 'lost' due to players going inactive was available over the period, rather than as an absolute number in terms of isk in active accounts vs isk in inactive accounts.

Also, I wonder if future blogs could have maybe one or two pages at the back with some of the figures relied on, and also the figures produced but not relied upon, both in the analysis and also in the graphs and charts, particularly in those graphs where the top ten are represented (such as ships flown and ships lost in either snapshot or over representative period), or where a basket of commodoties are used.

DasNara Aethelwulf
Blackwater Syndicate
Ushra'Khan
Posted - 2007.11.12 19:37:00 - [72]
 

First, great work, I know it must have taken a lot of hard work and I appreciate it.
Okay, I'm still digesting the QEN but here are a couple of first question/comments. The account average would be good. I'm acttually really interested in the demographics...could we see more of a location break down into regions? I won't comment on the how too's as there has been a lot of good ideas already.
As for the comment about remove the fausets, I'm hoping that person ment in QEN (which I'm oppossed to) because the economy needs a source of "printed" money to help with inflation. Could the next QEN deal with a few details about how the inflation works in this virtual world? How is CCP going to handle if it gets out of hand?
Also, please, please break down the trade goods of NPC stuff like livestock, passengers, computers, hand guns etc... As I haul these sort of things I would like to see more on what is selling and how it effects the economy, as I still don't know their purpose.
The last 'first thoughts' would be break it down by Region/Constellation, Empire vs 0.0 etc... that was my biggest hope. A snap shot of what sells where. I do not feel that it would hurt the economy as we regularly get details of GDP and items in those situations and are suppose to effect the economy. Remember most people dont read these sorts of things.

Again, thank for the hard work and I'm looking forward to the next installments...maybe one on more of the demographics???

Hamfast
Gallente
Posted - 2007.11.12 19:51:00 - [73]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG


I have to agree with some others about Alts...

If all characters are placed in 1 of 3 groups:
1) Main Character - Skills trained and are training - most SP in that account.
2) Active Alts - Some skills trained, but not actively training
3) Inactive Alts - Base Skills only (never trained)

Inactive Alts should not be counted at all, for any SP calculations...
Active Alts should be looked at as a separate group defined by their function- single purpose alts, even if trained, should not be counted...

In the case of Funds, I think that should be looked at by account, not character as they give the main character on the account his buying power (as another said)

I think account averages would skew results the same way including alts in the current presentation does.

Admiral Seafort
DarkStar 1
GoonSwarm
Posted - 2007.11.12 20:22:00 - [74]
 

This seems to be considerably better than previous reports, but still far from perfect.

One of the things that stuck out the most when I was reading the QEN was the "snapshot" that was used to portray an average ship distribution. Taking a single snapshot right before downtime on a single day is a far cry from a representative sample. Considering the time of day, the day of the week, etc. it's obvious that the sample must be skewed, and the magnitude of this bias is not known.

I think a lot of people in EVE are quite fascinated by the "all across the galaxy" statistics, such as shiptypes in space and such. It would be much better to use an average of data across a representative week (avoid holidays and major patches) or even a month. In fact, it would be very interesting to see which ships are being used through the course of a week or through the course of a day, and the distributions thereof.

Hoshi
Hedron Industries
Red Dwarf Racketeering Division
Posted - 2007.11.12 20:27:00 - [75]
 

One thing to consider in the inflation vs deflation is that instead of people paying more for existing stuff they might migrate towards stuff that are more expensive by default.
With the population having more isk on avg you will see more people in larger ships like BS, command ships, capitals etc.

In a way that's inflation too, not an isk inflation but a power inflation.

lpha centurion
Confrerie des ombres
Sylph Alliance
Posted - 2007.11.12 20:54:00 - [76]
 

Really really nice analysis, I'll have to print it now :D

Pang Grohl
Posted - 2007.11.12 20:57:00 - [77]
 

So much useful information... but I'm so missing that GDP analysis.

Would it be possible to get a sell order value of the produced goods market, excluding NPC orders, as a complement to the report on accessible currency. I really want to see how the 90 trillion in purchasing power compares to the value of produced goods available to the market. That alone should be a good indicator of the need to do something about the NPC sell orders for ships and modules.

Regarding the census information on skill point distribution: I would like to see how skill points are distributed across the various fields of expertise in the varying skill point bands. For example: up to 10m sp 20% in spaceship command, 10% in industry, 20% in gunnery, 10% in engineering, 10% in mechanics, 10% in electronics, 10% in navigation, 3% in social, 3% trade, etc. This should make the inclusion of untrained alts less disruptive to the analysis, because we'd see what the alts are getting used for.

Tareen Kashaar
Gyoza Society
The Star Fraction
Posted - 2007.11.12 21:13:00 - [78]
 

Edited by: Tareen Kashaar on 12/11/2007 21:20:57
This is an excellent read.

One thing that threw me off... the character's race doesn't seem nearly as important to me as the race of ships he flies. Is there any way to have averages based on trained ship skills instead of player faction? I could see some interesting graphs about people who have trained multiple races's ships there too.

Other than that, as an anthropologist with a serious interest in virtual societies, I gotta say: Good stuff, give us more :D

Edit: And since I apparently fail at reading comprehension, I'll add: This is referring to the first part of the QEN, the section about demographics.

Jeslik
Minmatar
Galactic Express
Burning Horizons
Posted - 2007.11.12 21:18:00 - [79]
 

Quote:
It is interesting to note that the top four ships are fighting vessels, the fifth one is a mining vessel (Hulk), but vessels in sixth through eighth place are all industrial vessels. This could be interpreted as an indicator about the relative importance of the mining, industry/trading, and mission running professions. If that is the case, then the interesting observation is how many are in non-fighting professions. However, note that this is a single snapshot which we cannot draw any strong conclusions from. But this is a statistic that will be watched closely in the future.


This is a single snapshot, as you've said. What I'd like to see is a bunch of snapshots, maybe every 4 hours, or every hour, to see how the ship mix varies throughout the course of the day. And keep that information available, so you can compare days, weeks, months & years. Not just the top 10 ships either, but all the ships, from Ibis to Titan. And not just an image, but a data file (or files). It would be nice to know how the Drone nerf/un-nerf affects the number of drone boats flying after the release, for example.

Another thing I'd like to see is a statistic of how many Accounts originate from the same IP address. With Power of 2, I just added a 3rd account. Given 195000 total accounts, how many actual players are there?

MotherMoon
Huang Yinglong
Posted - 2007.11.12 21:21:00 - [80]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG


hmmm well to be fair I believe the balance of money included trade alts... and other types of characters used for making money...

or either go by account or...

go by only characters with over 850,000sp.
seeing as characters start with 800,000sp and it only takes a few days to get to this sp, this migth give you a clear number of new players compared to traders and such.

but that's just my 2 cents Very Happy

MotherMoon
Huang Yinglong
Posted - 2007.11.12 21:23:00 - [81]
 

Where is Akita T?
she always *****es about your reports.... I'm sad I wanted to read her rant :(

come on post already!

it's like waiting for the angry movie critic in the newspaper that never likes anything, it's interesting and always has good points even if they are all rawr and such.:)

Hamfast
Gallente
Posted - 2007.11.12 22:08:00 - [82]
 

Originally by: Jeslik
Quote:
It is interesting to note that the top four ships are fighting vessels, the fifth one is a mining vessel (Hulk), but vessels in sixth through eighth place are all industrial vessels. This could be interpreted as an indicator about the relative importance of the mining, industry/trading, and mission running professions. If that is the case, then the interesting observation is how many are in non-fighting professions. However, note that this is a single snapshot which we cannot draw any strong conclusions from. But this is a statistic that will be watched closely in the future.


This is a single snapshot, as you've said. What I'd like to see is a bunch of snapshots, maybe every 4 hours, or every hour, to see how the ship mix varies throughout the course of the day. And keep that information available, so you can compare days, weeks, months & years. Not just the top 10 ships either, but all the ships, from Ibis to Titan. And not just an image, but a data file (or files). It would be nice to know how the Drone nerf/un-nerf affects the number of drone boats flying after the release, for example.



I wanted to agree with the above poster, the "Snap shot" at down time seems to be of little worth where "Ships Used" is the goal, a cross section of "Active" ships over a period of days or weeks would be a much better gauge... and like Skill points, I would not count inactive Alts, as the have started ships and will almost always have starter ships and it would skew the information gained.

It also seems that the snapshot idea is skewed by how the average player finishes up for the day... a Hauling Character ends the day in a station in a hauler... a Miner ends the day in a Mining Ship or a Hauler (transporting Ore to a station)... a Mission Runner ends the day in a Mission Vessel (Raven, Drake, and so on) or a Hauler having moved the items they gained to a central base to sell or reprocess... in each case, the "Job" of the character may be miss reported simply because of how they end the day.

Rashmika Sky
Amarr
R. Sky Escorts
Posted - 2007.11.12 22:22:00 - [83]
 

Edited by: Rashmika Sky on 12/11/2007 22:23:25
With regards to getting a more accurate snapshot of what people fly by taking multiple snapshots... Why not just look at all the ships each player currently owns?

Yes, it could be skewed in some ways, for instance by people owning a rookie ship they really don't fly, or combat pilots owning haulers that for the most part they may not use very often, but need from time to time. Still, I think that might be preferable to thinking somebody only flies a Raven when they fly a Scorpion for pvp, for example.

Edit: It occurs to me that somebody that manufactures and sells ships might seem to own many ships they don't fly... perhaps this idea is worse than I thought. ;)

-Rash

Rho'varo
Minmatar
Diversified Operational Services
Posted - 2007.11.12 22:37:00 - [84]
 

A question for a future update, perhaps: How much "hypothetical ISK" exists in buy orders by those with the Margin Trading skill? (Also, what impact does that amount have on the economy? And just out of interest, what fraction of the total is sitting in Jita?)

Tarsyris
The Greater Goon
GoonSwarm
Posted - 2007.11.12 23:16:00 - [85]
 

Some requests for the future:

1. How much trading occurs in 0.0 and Low-sec space and what are the hotspots?(this is fairly complex, I guess)

2. What are the least built/traded/lost modules and ships
2.1. Would it be possible to get a built/traded/lost table for ALL items in EVE or would that be an overwhelming amount of data collection? At least the top 20-30 least used T1 and T2 modules would be interesting to see.

3. In terms of population: Can you take snapshots of logged on characters at various prime-times(Euro, Russian, US) and THEN show population distribution in various sec areas?

4. Can we have an exact breakdown of ISK sources and sinks for the economy(insurance, missions, ratting, taxes, clones etc)

Violent Blue
Posted - 2007.11.12 23:37:00 - [86]
 

I find it intersting that half the players are <1M sp and half the ships people were in at downtime were rookie ships, pods, and shuttles.

These are all obviously new players and should be counted the same as everyone else. Rolling Eyes

Lab Technician071548
Astro-Support Services
East India Company
Posted - 2007.11.12 23:42:00 - [87]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG


Is this a trick question? Ho ho ho...

If you have one character with 25 million SPs and a Jita price checking alt with 800k, what will the average tell you? The average human has one testicle and one breast. Averages are pretty limited measures in some instances and I think this is one of them.

New characters have around 800K SPs now. A 1 million SP cut off would not exclude many new pilots. A better indicator of status is not the actual number of skill points alone but the skill points in conjunection with some temporal measurement of actual training. That a character has < 1m SPs is not indicative of the status of the character as a new pilot interested in play as part of the community in and of itself. You also need to know if that character is training or if it has trained "recently" to know if it's really just an alt of some kind.

There are such enormous differences between characters of 1M SPs and even 2M SPs in terms of what they can do in the game (tied, naturally, to what sorts of modules they can equip or use and what sorts of ships they can fly). On that basis, I suspect that newer pilots are deserving of a separate analysis. The very questions one might want to ask about pilots in their first 5m SPs are probably nothing like the questions one might want to ask about pilots in their second 5m SPs. In order to do something like that, a much more serious approach to separating new pilots from dud alts will be required if the analysis is to be taken seriously.

Some useful info in the quarterly report and some great screenies. Thanks, Doc.

Captain Narmio
Blue Republic
Posted - 2007.11.13 00:03:00 - [88]
 

This was a great read, thanks Dr E.

It seems there are enough suggestions in this thread to fill two new econ blogs, one on alts and their impact and another on the sinks and faucets. And those would be two blogs I would be very excited to read. I'm sure you're not lacking for projects, but these would be really, really cool.

Chainsaw Plankton
IDLE GUNS
IDLE EMPIRE
Posted - 2007.11.13 00:35:00 - [89]
 

Originally by: Glaren
Worth a read if only to see Trinity 2 screen shots. Razz


pretty much,

as nice as all this is I was really hoping to see a devblog about the thoughts on changes on sisi that have been driving the forums wild recently. (as nice as ccps new approach of saying things on the forums it is slightly hard to keep track of it all Confused)

and about amarr, check my sig Laughing

woo im in the 10-20mil sp hump! personally feel that he should have left out the less than 1mil sp in calculating averages, think of all those alts that just sit around all day doing nothing.

over all good read

Audri Fisher
Caldari
Burning Bush Enterprises
Posted - 2007.11.13 00:42:00 - [90]
 

I have a qustion about the distrobution of skillpoints kisted in the first part of the blog.
How many of those 1 mil sp characters are non training alts of mains?
for example both my accounts use all 6 character slots.
Audri Fisher is main on first account
I have an alt scout
I also have an alt to post on COAD

Gunny Fisher is my cap ship pilot on my secondary account
got a market alt
and another coad flame alt.

so 4 of those characters are useless, and never going to be trained.


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