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blankseplocked Quarterly Economic Newsletter, 3rd Quarter 2007 by Dr.EyjoG
 
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N1fty
Galactic Shipyards Inc
Huzzah Federation
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:06:00 - [31]
 

Originally by: Richard Bashir
Originally by: QEN_Q3.pdf
with the release of Trinity on November 27th, 2007.


Has this been communicated before? Shocked

Very Happy


Hah! CCP stealth-announces its Trinity launch?

Letrange
Minmatar
Red Horizon Inc
Cascade Imminent
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:07:00 - [32]
 

Quote:
I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?


I think that simply counting the highest level character per account should be used. This is because you can only advance one character at a time on an account therefore any 2nd character is usually a utility alternate who's skills don't really matter since it is used to do things the main character can't do. This would get the newbies in with the veterans without having all the utility alts show up in the statistics. These utility alts are usually adjuncts to the main character anyways since they don't usually pursue independent careers of their own but are there simply to support the operations of the main character in some manner.

Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:11:00 - [33]
 

Nice report, some interesting trends.

Will the items that compose the chain basket and the fixed basket be made available in future reports? I realize that too much information given to players could also impact the economy in potentially bad ways, but perhaps we could get in future QENs, the composition of the baskets from the previous QEN, maybe two QENs to the past so what information we do get is older and as such would have less impact on the markets.

It would be interesting to see that as it is hard to conclude from generalizations if a price change is due to supply or demand, such as the example of the Griffon cited in the report. That ship, though great for specific tasks, does not see a lot of flight time and the price increase may be due to supply as opposed to any new demand. Granted knowing the composition of the basket does not reveal this directly, however individuals who know their markets, could use it to draw conclusions, which may help gauge future behaviors on similarly niched products.

Thanks for the report, nice to read.

dethdealer
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:14:00 - [34]
 

"At the same time, 7% of total Amarr skillpoints are for drone operation, versus 9% or 10% for the other races. Amarr pilots therefore rely more on missile operations than drones as a secondary weapon."

It just takes more skill points to use missiles effectively at a BS level then it does to use drones since most Amarr ships cant use 5 heavy drones there is no need to train for them.

Lil Mule
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:16:00 - [35]
 

This rules!
Thanks!

N1fty
Galactic Shipyards Inc
Huzzah Federation
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:16:00 - [36]
 

Edited by: N1fty on 12/11/2007 16:17:19
Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG


Makes most sense to me, as in theory each account = an eve player. Of course we have people running several accounts, but they can all make money at the same time (be logged in simultaneously, whereas alt's cannot).


Other people mentioned about what races people are, this is vaguely interesting, but really only points towards what attributes and starting skills people want than what ships they are going to fly.
For example; I forget the % of Amarr ships ingame according to a previous blog, but I would bet its less than the 16% Amarr characters.

ArmyOfMe
Hysera.
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:17:00 - [37]
 

Edited by: ArmyOfMe on 12/11/2007 16:20:25
Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG

That sounds like a nice way to do it tbh, but as others have stated, taking the highest number sp char on each account would probably be better.

On another note, these days it seems to be far to easy to earn isk, and is there any plans about reducing the income of isk the game?

Ulstan
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:21:00 - [38]
 

Quote:
We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?



Highest on the account is the best way to do it.

If I create two trade alts to sit in Jita and Rens to price check, it shouldn't suddenly make my main appear 1/3 as skilled as he actually is.

Just disregard alts an account and only look at the main character (one with the highest skillpoints).

Newbies get counted, trade alts don't. Win!

Likewise, sum ISK per account, as opposed to average character.

The former is your actual buying power, which is what we care about. The latter depends on how many trade alts you have.

haniblecter
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:21:00 - [39]
 

Originally by: Garrick Konquero
Edited by: Garrick Konquero on 12/11/2007 16:03:01
Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG

I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG


Unless I'm missing something, I think that rather than an account average, it would be better to count the highest point character on an account. As, with some exceptions, most alt characters on the same account are "out of the box" without additional training and would skew the average low, thus artificially under representing the number of skill points accumulated by the main character.

It would also be interesting to include information not merely on characters and accounts, but players, since a chunk of the player population plays with more than one account.


I agree. In addition, dont feel that taking only charactesr with, say, >2 month age. The character im posting on now is well over 2 years old, yet has only trained 1 skill, my main has 31million right now. Both were created near the same time on the same account.

Aenigma
Gallente
Wormhole Raiders
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:24:00 - [40]
 

I read it and i liked it, but i have some questions/remarks:

On Demographics:
- It would have been interesting to see the number of accounts with main characters in a NPC corp (criteria: account has multiple characters, account has a character with a minimum of n times more skillpoints than the next highest skilled character and has a minimum of x skillpoints, is in NPC corp).
-'The average life span of an EVE character is seven months; hence it comes as no surprise that half of the characters have less than one million skill points.' It wouldn't surprise me if most of these characters with less than one million skill points are actually alts. Maybe it's more interesting to see the age of accounts instead of characters.
-'Amarr pilots therefore rely more on missile operations than drones as a secondary weapon.' It might have to do with Khanid Mk. II instead.

On Figure 9: How does the isk subscript work? Is [<10k; 10k-50k; 50k-100k; 100k-500k; 500k-1M;1M-10M;10M-100M;100M-1B;1B-10B; 10B-100B] the way to look at it? If so, why does the rightmost column say >100B? Shouldn't it be >10B instead, or should another column be added?

Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:24:00 - [41]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).

I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?
Dr. EyjoG


Perhaps a reasonable option would be to collect these numbers on a per account basis rather than on a per character basis. Since one account can maintain three characters, and as such have all of those SP and ISK available for use, albeit perhaps in limited fashion for two of the characters, they are in effect, one economic entity by behavior in general. It is unlikely that a player would spend ISK or SP time for opposing economic goals on one account, it may happen but is probably a very small number and likely can be ignored.

Ecid Q'Wulf
Sniggerdly
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:28:00 - [42]
 

Edited by: Ecid Q''Wulf on 12/11/2007 16:32:05
Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?




Dr. EyjoG


Account avarages are fine, perhaps even better.

What would be interisting, is how much ISK is stored on those "alt" characters in regards to the main characters. Also it would be quite fascination wether the cash flow from "alts" to "mains" is bigger/smaller then the opposite way around. General destinction would be, wether people support their alts with mains, or their mains with alts, cash wise.

Whats also could be interisting would be a determination wether or not characters above 5 million skillpoints do hold more cash when beeing in an alliance or not. And/or if alliances on avarage doe house more fluid ISk then NPC corporations would do.

Also, on a sidenote, if you could draw some conclusions out of the data/facts represented in an easy to read/understand style at the end of each of your reports, that would help a little bit more, for those of us without any backgrounds on that topic.

Scalable graphs would also be quite helpfull to figure stuff out.

Ulstan
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:29:00 - [43]
 

Edited by: Ulstan on 12/11/2007 16:31:19
Edited by: Ulstan on 12/11/2007 16:30:44
Quote:
On another note, these days it seems to be far to easy to earn isk


By no means.

There are 195,000 accounts.

536 billion in, 365 billion out.

That is ~877k per account per day earned.

That means that it will take, on average, 114 days for a player to earn enough money for a 100 mill battleship (If you're Caldari, as most players are, the Raven is your first viable battleship) if he saves every single dime and has no ammo expenses, unexpected ship losses, etc. For a newbie of course it will be much longer, because they don't earn as much money as the pros, so they will be making less than the average. So if we assume the newbie already has a fitted out money earning cruiser platform and then saves for 5 straight months, he can get his battleship.

That rate seems perfectly fine to me considering that apparently the average length of time to play the game is 7 months.

ArmyOfMe
Hysera.
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:35:00 - [44]
 

Originally by: Ulstan
Edited by: Ulstan on 12/11/2007 16:31:19
Edited by: Ulstan on 12/11/2007 16:30:44
Quote:
On another note, these days it seems to be far to easy to earn isk


By no means.

There are 195,000 accounts.

536 billion in, 365 billion out.

That is ~877k per account per day earned.

That means that it will take, on average, 114 days for a player to earn enough money for a 100 mill battleship (If you're Caldari, as most players are, the Raven is your first viable battleship) if he saves every single dime and has no ammo expenses, unexpected ship losses, etc. For a newbie of course it will be much longer, because they don't earn as much money as the pros, so they will be making less than the average. So if we assume the newbie already has a fitted out money earning cruiser platform and then saves for 5 straight months, he can get his battleship.

That rate seems perfectly fine to me considering that apparently the average length of time to play the game is 7 months.

are you honestly telling me that you think it takes new players that long to make enough isk for a bs?
the 877k pr account is what you earn from shooting a single bad npc in 0,0
or what you earn on a level 2 mission for that matter

Ulstan
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:38:00 - [45]
 

Newbies are not going to 0.0 and shooting battleship NPC's, nor are newbies earning 877k per L2 mission, except *possibly* Recon1 after they've trained all the relevant social skills to IV.

Anyway, that's the math. The average account earns 877k per day. You and I earn far more than that per day, so therefore, there must be people earning far less than that per day, probably the elusive 'casual player' we keep hearing about.

Cailais
Amarr
Nasty Pope Holding Corp
Talocan United
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:40:00 - [46]
 

Brilliant stuff, and a really interesting read - perhaps there really are far far far more 'industry' players out there than one might suppose...

C.


ArmyOfMe
Hysera.
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:44:00 - [47]
 

Originally by: Ulstan
Newbies are not going to 0.0 and shooting battleship NPC's, nor are newbies earning 877k per L2 mission, except *possibly* Recon1 after they've trained all the relevant social skills to IV.

Anyway, that's the math. The average account earns 877k per day. You and I earn far more than that per day, so therefore, there must be people earning far less than that per day, probably the elusive 'casual player' we keep hearing about.

possible, but i havnt met many of these in my time in eve tbh.
even one hour of mining will generate a lot more isk then 877k

Altaree
The Graduates
Morsus Mihi
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:46:00 - [48]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG


For Isk, please use account averages or discount all players with less than 2M SP.

For skills, please discount all players with less than 2M SP.

They have not had time to have a major affect on the game and I think they seriously skew your numbers.

Ulstan
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:47:00 - [49]
 

Edited by: Ulstan on 12/11/2007 16:48:53
Possibly, if the newbie knows where to sell it for maximum profit and doesn't just take it back to the station and click "sell this item". And his refining skills and station standings are unlikely to be as high as yours or mine, so he loses a lot to wastage.

If a newbie is running around in an Osprey mining a three to four hours a couple evenings a week, I could easily see him pulling in about 877k on average.

The demographic that logs on to EVE every night and then goes and chains NPC battleships in 0.0 for hours is a very very small minority.

Yiasa
KronDair
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:54:00 - [50]
 

Let me first comment on the great report, some fine work in there.

I would like to say that I agree on the comment that in the Skillpoints histogram on page 4 the alts should not have been included. I think a possibility to achieve this would be to set a very tight border for which characters you include and which you don't. I believe that all starter chars have between 800k and 810k sp's. Somebody only training for a bare few days should quickely supase that number so it might be a possibility to get more accurate data by setting the border at 825k sp's for instance.

As mentioned the Graphs Daily increase of total ISK and Total ISK and growth clearly shows that the general eve population is getting wealthyer in isk terms, and I think that the population is getting weathlyer in general because of the fixed price npc items you can buy for that isk from the market or reprocess, for instance the tritanium cap on shuttles.

I feel that this is a unwanted development and that the isk flow coming into the game should be closely matched to the ammount of players + constraints taken away. (im quessing now, as I dont know the influence every facet has), but one migth be able to do this with dynamic ship insurance costs instead of the static ones we have now atm,

(in a further QEN it would be nice to see wheter eve ship insurance makes a loss or profit, I think that they make a mayor loss and feel that this should be fixed as every insurance company should make a profit to be a viable company ). Also it seems the easyest thing to do without getting a riot on the forums :), as one could see the hunderds of topic popping up if the bountys on npc's would be nerfed or mission rewards/ pos fuel prices for instance.

In the Price Levels section of the QEN I would like to know wheter in the Primary Production analyses the actual consumption of the primary stage items are taken into consideration into the calculations / or as a substitude the volume traded. As for instance vast quantitys of veldspar/tritanium are used which costs only around 3 - 4 isk per item while Invention Interface parts cost as much as 300 to 400k each but a only a very limit quantity of those are used to actually build interfaces every day.

Hmn to make my question more clear; Is the Primary producer price index a weighted graph, (this also applies for the Secondary producer price index and the consumer price index).

P.S. hehe I kind of missed the bit of info how much isk the most wealthy character in eve has. :P






Fenderson
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:56:00 - [51]
 

the best way to look at skillpoints is to use the highest SP character per account.

another thing to consider: your wealth distribution numbers are skewed by people who run multiple accounts. Most of the wealthier people in eve run several accounts (thats alot of the reason why they are wealthier) so your statistics may see 5 accounts with a billion isk each, but in effect for the economy it is actually only 1 player with 5 billion isk.

when players control extra accounts it increases their potential income, but typically does *not* increase their consumption in proportion to the amount of extra accounts.

Paddlefoot Aeon
SiN. Corp
Daisho Syndicate
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:01:00 - [52]
 

Edited by: Paddlefoot Aeon on 12/11/2007 17:01:26
Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG


If you check out the addendum at the end of my original post, I sort of address this issue:
------------------------------------
Addendum:
I just created an alt with 800k SP, and went to train a rank one skill from level 4->level 5 (need a cyno character :p ). Even without implants, it takes 7-8 days to train from level 4 to level 5 (45k SP to 256k SP), which would put my character to over 1 million SP in just over a week, not a month as the Dr. indicates in the first full paragraph on page 5. Again I say, you need to run numbers again, without the <1mil characters.
----------------------------------------

I think that excluding those characters under 1 mil, while perhaps counting out a handful of genuine new players, will yield far better results.

For skillpoints, use average per character, excluding characters below 1 mil SP. For ISK, I would recommend either average per account, or average per user (sum of multiple accounts).


Tarminic
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:02:00 - [53]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG

I would include all characters that are training skills, if it's possible to obtain that data. That way the vast majority of new players will be included and the vast majority of alts will be excluded.

Ishina Fel
Caldari
Terra Incognita
Intrepid Crossing
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:02:00 - [54]
 

Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG
I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG



I believe that this would be a good approach. One account means one character that can have skill training active, and this means one character is really being played. By far the least players split up their training time between multiple characters on the same account (unless they start of completely new). And even then, splitting up skill training time into "two halves" still ends up as "one full training process", so the statistic isn't skewed.

Overall a very interesting read, especially the volume graphs on datacore and salvage production!


(And seriously, people, the Nov 27/28 date for Trinity has been out since mid-September. You watch too little EVE-TV! ugh)

Rashmika Sky
Amarr
R. Sky Escorts
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:05:00 - [55]
 

Originally by: Ulstan
Newbies are not going to 0.0 and shooting battleship NPC's, nor are newbies earning 877k per L2 mission, except *possibly* Recon1 after they've trained all the relevant social skills to IV.

Anyway, that's the math. The average account earns 877k per day. You and I earn far more than that per day, so therefore, there must be people earning far less than that per day, probably the elusive 'casual player' we keep hearing about.


Yes, the elusive casual player skews the results - like myself, yesterday I made something like 6 million isk, and that's the busiest I've been in about a month. ;) Granted, that was 6 million isk through level 1 missions in an assault frigate, probably in about 3 hours of play, giving around 2 mil isk/hour.

I would expect a newbie to make isk somewhat more slowly than I did as they would need more time to complete the missions (punisher does around half the damage of a retribution, has lower speed, less optimal range, their skills are lower, etc.).

Even so, for those that have forgotten their early days, that should give an idea of what a newbie would be able to make through missions early on, about 1 to 2 million isk per hour. So a mission running newbie could get into a battleship in 50 to 100 hours of mission running, without anything more than a decent level 1 agent and a frigate.

If one of my crazy friends were to begin playing Eve on a Friday, and did their non-stop 3 day weekend of gaming routine... they'd probably have 100 mil by the next Monday. It would, of course, take way more time for them to actually be able to fly a battleship, at least in a manner worth speaking of.

-Rash

dethdealer
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:08:00 - [56]
 

Edited by: dethdealer on 12/11/2007 17:20:02
Edited by: dethdealer on 12/11/2007 17:10:45
Ied like to see a breakdown of the isk faucets and sinks, where does most of the money come from and where does most of it go. Also, if you could break missions down by level that would be cool too. I'm interested to see just how many people do level 3.

Edit: Oh and how does insurance fit into the whole a ship being a durable good thing?
And it would be more informative if you grouped players by the race they had the highest spaceship command skill in, excluding industrials, rather then their starting race.

Zarch AlDain
GK inc.
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:09:00 - [57]
 

Originally by: Valator Uel
Nice blog and lots of cool facts.

While it's nice to see racial distribution among the players (eg 16% Amarr), it doesn't represent how many Amarr ships are flying around. This is simply due to the fact that one can train any skill in any race. What would be interesting is to see how many players are specialized in a race (or multiple races) by looking at who has racial frigate, cruiser and battleship skills trained. A player who has frigates, cruisers and BSs of more than one race counts for both of those races. The outcome could be very different as for instance I am Caldari yet I fly Amarr ships. I hope you understand what I mean Rolling Eyes.

About the Amarr pilots having more missile SP than Minmatar or Gallente, do you think it has something to do with Khanid MKII? What was the average missile SP of Amarr pilots prior to the Khanid changes? I suspect much less than now but would be interesting to see. Again here, are we talking about character races or people that fly their racial ships? There's a big difference between the two and could be a major flaw in all racial statistics you gave.

Another statistic that would be funny to see is the number of "noob" alts. When looking at the histogram with the distribution of skill points, over 200000 characters have less than 1M SP. Now, how many of those are not training skills? That gives you the amount of noob alts. Alts-Online: Altinity. Laughing

The minerals was also interesting, but I didn't see any information of from where these minerals come from. Which regions generate (ie mined, or in the case of drones refined) which minerals? Does X alliance really have a farmer community? (lol joking Wink).

Lastly, I would have loved to know what CCP thinks of these statistics. Does CCP think any of the statistics should be fixed or adjusted by changing certain game mecanics? Is CCP surprised (pleasently or not) by some of the statistics?


You know, I was thinking about that 'amarr missiles SP' thing as my (admittedly limited) knowledge of amarr ships implies that before khanid mk 2 missiles were not a popular choice at all. Could it be that in fact you are seeing a reflection of a lot of amarr characters cross training Caldari? The lower % of missiles for Gallente and Minmatar could imply that fewer characters from those races cross train.

I would certainly expect to see Caldari followed by Minmatar as the heaviest missile users normally...

Fastercart
Gallente
Ornery Cantankerous Curmudgeons
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:14:00 - [58]
 

Originally by: N1fty
Originally by: Richard Bashir
Originally by: QEN_Q3.pdf
with the release of Trinity on November 27th, 2007.


Has this been communicated before? Shocked

Very Happy


Hah! CCP stealth-announces its Trinity launch?
Actually November 29th (or was it 28th) was stated at Fanfest. But, it's nice to see a date in print.

Ulstan
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:15:00 - [59]
 

Quote:
I think that the population is getting weathlyer in general


Well of course they are. The population is getting older, wiser, and more skilled in general. Therefore their earning power increases. I've never seen an MMO where the population didn't get wealthier in general.

Now, runaway inflation *is* a concern that has plagued several MMO's but I'm just not seeing the runaway inflation in this report: every single price index seems to be in a moderate decline.

Kweel Nakashyn
shadow and cloaking
Yggdrasill.
Posted - 2007.11.12 17:19:00 - [60]
 

As a non-native english speaker, I can understand everything, technical words are not used so much.

THANK YOU


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