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blankseplocked Quarterly Economic Newsletter, 3rd Quarter 2007 by Dr.EyjoG
 
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CCP Wrangler

Posted - 2007.11.12 13:50:00 - [1]
 

The first Quarterly Economic Newsletter (QEN) is available for download! This is not only our first QEN but the first QEN for any online universe. Download it, read it and discuss it with us! Since the QEN is very long we ask that you specify which part of it that you're discussing.

Download the Quarterly Economic Newsletter, 3rd Quarter 2007.

Glaren
Caldari
Eagle Inc.
Posted - 2007.11.12 13:53:00 - [2]
 

Worth a read if only to see Trinity 2 screen shots. Razz

Bartholomeus Crane
Gallente
The Crane Family
Posted - 2007.11.12 13:53:00 - [3]
 

Finally!

Thanks anyway, must have cost a great deal of work putting it together ...

ArmyOfMe
Hysera.
Posted - 2007.11.12 13:56:00 - [4]
 

wooot
oh and 3rdVery Happy

TimGascoigne
Sebiestor Tribe
Posted - 2007.11.12 14:11:00 - [5]
 

oh joy 15 Pages :)

Serrano Balthar
Black Nova Corp
Band of Brothers
Posted - 2007.11.12 14:14:00 - [6]
 

screenshot rules, and data rules.


armar 16% ... nerf amar !!!

i like data, thanks

Montaire
Krusual Developments
Posted - 2007.11.12 14:16:00 - [7]
 

Edited by: Montaire on 12/11/2007 14:16:39
And that is our job at the Research and Statistics group at CCP; to provide the EVE Universe with timely...

You cant have a bold mission statment start like that when the product is late.

You start the newsletter of by saying "Our job is .." and then state something you failed to accomplish.

Shadowsword
The Rough Riders
Ares Protectiva
Posted - 2007.11.12 14:17:00 - [8]
 

Didn't take time to read it just yet, but the screenies look nice.

Vint Rotach
Posted - 2007.11.12 14:50:00 - [9]
 

Just a highlight I spotted.

"The Raven is the most produced (and lost) ship"...

Could we take this as some sort of proof that mission running is not 'no risk' finally?

discuss?

N1fty
Galactic Shipyards Inc
Huzzah Federation
Posted - 2007.11.12 14:55:00 - [10]
 

Originally by: Serrano Balthar
screenshot rules, and data rules.


armar 16% ... nerf amar !!!

i like data, thanks



Oh wow, we really are dying off :(

Syrin
Hell's Boundaries
Posted - 2007.11.12 14:56:00 - [11]
 

Very Interesting... Guess invention did a nice job on the T2 marketLaughing

On a side note, theres more screenshots of the new ships in that blog than you have released officially Very Happy so an extra thanks for that.

Valator Uel
Caldari
Mercenaries of Andosia
Northern Coalition.
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:00:00 - [12]
 

Nice blog and lots of cool facts.

While it's nice to see racial distribution among the players (eg 16% Amarr), it doesn't represent how many Amarr ships are flying around. This is simply due to the fact that one can train any skill in any race. What would be interesting is to see how many players are specialized in a race (or multiple races) by looking at who has racial frigate, cruiser and battleship skills trained. A player who has frigates, cruisers and BSs of more than one race counts for both of those races. The outcome could be very different as for instance I am Caldari yet I fly Amarr ships. I hope you understand what I mean Rolling Eyes.

About the Amarr pilots having more missile SP than Minmatar or Gallente, do you think it has something to do with Khanid MKII? What was the average missile SP of Amarr pilots prior to the Khanid changes? I suspect much less than now but would be interesting to see. Again here, are we talking about character races or people that fly their racial ships? There's a big difference between the two and could be a major flaw in all racial statistics you gave.

Another statistic that would be funny to see is the number of "noob" alts. When looking at the histogram with the distribution of skill points, over 200000 characters have less than 1M SP. Now, how many of those are not training skills? That gives you the amount of noob alts. Alts-Online: Altinity. Laughing

The minerals was also interesting, but I didn't see any information of from where these minerals come from. Which regions generate (ie mined, or in the case of drones refined) which minerals? Does X alliance really have a farmer community? (lol joking Wink).

Lastly, I would have loved to know what CCP thinks of these statistics. Does CCP think any of the statistics should be fixed or adjusted by changing certain game mecanics? Is CCP surprised (pleasently or not) by some of the statistics?

Ulstan
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:04:00 - [13]
 

Superb break down of information.

I find it interesting that gallente characters, on the average, appear to have the most skill points, with Caldari right behind them (no doubt thanks to the archura).

I notice that Amarr pilots tend to have more points in space ship command than others, which is probably them all cross training for other races vessels. ;)

Caldari population is higher, which is not surprising given that they get billed as the 'fighter race'. The vast bulk of caldari accounts appear to be used for mission running and not PvP, if you examine the security status graph.

The top 10 ships: you have 3 haulers, a mining barge, a lineup of caldari pve boats and then... the rifter, an excellent pvp frigate.

It looks like most of eve is fairly pve oriented, but there is hope! 1/10 players seem to have killed someone unprovoked :)

Speaking of low sec, I was quite honestly surprised to learn that 13% of the population is in low sec compared to 9% for 0.0. Of all the enormous empires out there in 0.0, there must be a *ton* of people running around in low sec, which makes me think the 'low sec isn't populated' complaints coming from pirates are mostly indicative of them being unable to pry themselves off a gate camp and actually make the effort to go out and find people.


LaVista Vista
Conservative Shenanigans Party
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:14:00 - [14]
 

Superb work Cool

haniblecter
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:18:00 - [15]
 

Maybe its cause Im hung over, or maybe its cause I dont have a BA in econ, but I found some of those graphs hard to read.

Oh well, info is AWESOME! Be cool to see a more in depth analysis of wallet levels across the population. Nice to see that Im in the >95% club for wallet levels. :p

Levrin Atischa
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:18:00 - [16]
 

Very nice report, i enjoyed reading it. Looking forward to the next report

Ulstan
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:18:00 - [17]
 

I'm also curious as to what CCP thinks of the rate of ISK in vs ISK out. If I'm understanding it right, then on average, a character *makes* about 400k per day in net profit from something like NPC trading, mining, ratting, after counting fees and repairs and such (excluding things like module purchases and ammo, etc).

That's uh, almost laughably small.

Mel Ionix
Gallente
Federal Navy Academy
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:22:00 - [18]
 

OMG that looks excellent Very Happy

Chribba
Otherworld Enterprises
Otherworld Empire
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:23:00 - [19]
 

Interesting read.

Andrue
Amarr
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:26:00 - [20]
 

Originally by: Valator Uel
[snip]I am Caldari yet I fly Amarr ships. I hope you understand what I mean
I'm Amarrian but fly Caldari ships so that cancels you out, right there Laughing

Paddlefoot Aeon
SiN. Corp
Daisho Syndicate
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:28:00 - [21]
 

Edited by: Paddlefoot Aeon on 12/11/2007 15:39:15
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too). These characters, while they may be interacting with the market, need to be put in a specific and special category, not lumped in with the general populace. They are biasing your data, not to mention requiring your graph to be on such a large scale that variations across the other categories are lost. If you were to drop the <1,000,000 bar in Figure 2, you could set your left axis to a max of 50, and more variations would be apparent. Your cumulative % data, if run on a subset of the population that excludes the <1mil characters would be more interesting as well.

Second, total ISK in a wallet. Again, with fully 50% of the population having alts, this number is really trash data. I personally have an alt that I use for market transactions, which has less than 1 mil SP and never has less than 500mil in her wallet. Now honestly, how many true characters with under 1 mil SP have 500mil in their wallets? Especially when you consider that now characters are created with 800k SP right out of the box. I would very much like to see this data done in terms of "ISK per account". That would give a better indicator on how wealth is distributed in EvE. Or even better, ISK per account owner. I have 2 accounts... my true buying power is the sum of the ISK across all these accounts, no? If a calculation like this were done, I'll bet we would find a situtation where 10-20% of the population owns the lion's share of ISK.

Third and finally, I wish to talk about the Raven. Its the king of PvE. It is a money-making machine. And yes, it too can die. However, I would be interested in seeing how many kills were from NPCs alone, and how many had other players involved. Also, with only 9% of the EVE population in 0.0, its clear that the cloaking macro ISK farmers in 0.0 are only a small part of the problem. The farming of missions by the raven pilots located in highsec must be one of the largest ISK faucets in the game. And, despite the ravens that I'm sure are lost by under-skilled players flying a battleship trying to run a level 4, I believe that it may be too easy to run level 4s. I can easily solo 99% of level 4s in my Domi without ever having to warp out, or even break a sweat. If EVE is supposed to offer more reward for higher risk activities, why is missioning, a relatively safe activity, dumping so much ISK into the economy? To this end, I would love to see ISK faucets broken down across a given month. How much ISK was given as mission reward and bounties from rats in missions vs rat hunting in lowsec/0.0? And to account for the difference in populations, calculate this on an average ISK/person rate, run on a sample that excludes players under 1 mil SP.

This economic newsletter was a good start, but there are ample ways to dig deeper into the numbers and find even more interesting data. While good, I feel this newsletter was far too general. Specifics are gold, and bring value to data.

Again, if you only take one suggestion from my post, please let it be this one:
REMOVE <1mil characters from your sample's base size across all your calculations.

Thanks, and good work overall.

-Cheers,
Paddlefoot

Addendum:
I just created an alt with 800k SP, and went to train a rank one skill from level 4->level 5 (need a cyno character :p ). Even without implants, it takes 7-8 days to train from level 4 to level 5 (45k SP to 256k SP), which would put my character to over 1 million SP in just over a week, not a month as the Dr. indicates in the first full paragraph on page 5. Again I say, you need to run numbers again, without the <1mil characters.

Cherika
Caldari
Blood Works Inc.
Circle-Of-Two
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:29:00 - [22]
 

Raven is still fugly.
How hard it is to put some geometry into a ship model?
Mega was already cool looking ship and no it's insanely cool but Raven stays fugly.
Nice job CCP.

Ulstan
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:46:00 - [23]
 

Edited by: Ulstan on 12/11/2007 15:58:38
Edited by: Ulstan on 12/11/2007 15:47:43

The other econ dev entry they mention (http://myeve.eve-online.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&bid=505)

Also has a lot of neat info. According to that, the raven is not the most produced ship at all.

I find it interesting that people are producing a capital ship (Thanatos) faster than they are producing a faction battleship (Navy Raven)

"Note most Empire production takes place in low sec areas (0.4 and below)"

Interesting, and would not have guessed this. This is another strike against the "nothing ever happens in low sec" complainers.

The Raven is suffering an absolutely atrocious attrition rate: 100k ravens were produced during Jan-Aug and 80k of those were lost. Everyone and their mother may be flying one, but 80% of the pilots seem to lose theirs. Again, this indicates that mission running is *not* risk free for the vast majority of EVE population.

Interceptors seem to flood into the market (being most popular TII ships, obviously) and then just as quickly flood out. They're the only other ships out there with an attrition rate as high as the Raven.

The Navy Raven is also suffering atricious attrition rates, far and away above what the other faction ships are suffering. This probably indicates no one is bothering to use the other faction ships for mission running, so some adjustments to them may be in order so they aren't left gathering dust. Or maybe they are used for mission running and the navy ravens are just disproportionaly likely to die.


CCP Dr.EyjoG

Posted - 2007.11.12 15:48:00 - [24]
 

Originally by: Paddlefoot Aeon
A couple of things really jump out at me, having a background in Market research and the lighter side of statistics.

First, I believe the characters with less than 1 million SP should be considered outliers. So many people have alts that are in Jita, or for scouting, or simply out of the box market alts that sit on the same account as their main character (I'm guilty here, too).


I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG

Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:49:00 - [25]
 

Edited by: Gnulpie on 12/11/2007 15:49:52
Nice looking report, thanks!

1) Ice. Why is that not listed in the basic mineral index? It is almost exactly like all the ores you can mine. I don't see why it is listed in the other index.

2) Tradegoods. Is there any insight on how much isk is generated by trading with npc items? And are there plans to remove that isk faucet? Making (huge amounts of) money from these sources contradicts a little the idea of a purely player driven market I think. Also I believe that the Eve player market is large enough now that we don't need the isk infusion from this. Only the rich and old chars profit from them anyway Razz

Edit:
3) Table of contents would be nice to have also Very Happy

Richard Bashir
Gallente
Eve Engineering Logistics
Eve Engineering
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:51:00 - [26]
 

Originally by: QEN_Q3.pdf
with the release of Trinity on November 27th, 2007.


Has this been communicated before? Shocked

Very Happy

Swamp Ziro
Ultimate Betrayal.
Vera Cruz Alliance
Posted - 2007.11.12 15:59:00 - [27]
 

The report was severely lacking in actual advice on investments and get-rich quick schemes :V

Garrick Konquero
ImmCo
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:02:00 - [28]
 

Edited by: Garrick Konquero on 12/11/2007 16:03:01
Originally by: CCP Dr.EyjoG

I perfectly agree with you on this point. Our biggest problem was that we wanted to include new players in the numbers so our only option was to include all characters. We have also been thinking about reporting only account averages rather than character averages? What does the forum think about that?

Dr. EyjoG


Unless I'm missing something, I think that rather than an account average, it would be better to count the highest point character on an account. As, with some exceptions, most alt characters on the same account are "out of the box" without additional training and would skew the average low, thus artificially under representing the number of skill points accumulated by the main character.

It would also be interesting to include information not merely on characters and accounts, but players, since a chunk of the player population plays with more than one account.

Ulstan
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:03:00 - [29]
 

Also, for all the CNR hate, some interesting figures:


For Jan-Aug:

CNR produced: 2300
Thanatos produced: 2800

CNR lost: 1500
Thanatos lost: 450

The CNR is produced less often than the Thanatos and lost at a far higher rate. Again, it doesn't look like mission running, even in an expensive CRN, is 'risk free', at least to the majority of the EVE population.

Derboff
Posted - 2007.11.12 16:04:00 - [30]
 

Thank you for this detailed investigation. I have no experience of economics so it is hard going for me, but the details are very interesting.

One point I would be interested in. Figs 5/6 shows the relationship between industry and pilots. Is there any reason for the link in the faucets and sinks to pilots and not industrial. Is there any figures on the cost of industrial fees etc related to the figure of 365 billion. Also does the sink fee include researching and invention ?

Many thanks for excellent work... more thoughts later I think


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