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WhatIsItGoodFor
Minmatar
Absolutely Nothin
Posted - 2007.10.09 15:50:00 - [1]
 

Edited by: WhatIsItGoodFor on 09/10/2007 18:10:48
Introduction

Before beginning any in-depth analysis of the War, it is necessary to define some terms and criteria (when exactly did the War start, for example) and to take a survey of what has happened between then and now. Once the surface details have been covered, further analysis can take place about the current situation and what can be expected in the future.

Molle's announcement (made exactly 8 months ago today) that BoB would be stealing Chow's targets is the most obvious and objective point that can be used to denote the start of the War.

Any hard starting point will be inaccurate; arguably, wars like RSF vs. the Southern Coalition (KOS, -V-, the start of LV), BoB vs. ASCN, and Everyone vs. ISS had effects on the shape of the greater War to follow, and obviously many involved alliances have grudges dating back years. Others would like to push the date later, as BoB never did mount serious efforts against RSF and their southern allies until well after LV had fallen. Both are correct, obviously. War and the politics behind it are fluid, and any starting point will fail to reflect the whole truth.

That said, Molle's announcement remains a defining moment; galactic War was inevitable, and the only question was whether BoB would attempt to aid LV or would attack the North instead. Either way, it was obvious to anyone paying attention that the North would get involved the moment BoB made a move.

So, with all disclaimers and equivocation out of the way, let's examine the basics: losses and gains -- of the original four major players (The Old North, The GBC, Lotka Volterra, and the RSF) as well as smaller players that were either pulled into conflict during the war or created from the remnants of D2 and LV after their collapses.

Supercap and Cap Losses

Titans: 4
WOTANKN [D2]
Shrike [BoB]
Thusla Doom [MC]
n/a [LV]*

Motherships: 16
Gerontiq [IAC]
Greenhalf [RA]
King Leonidas [BoB]
Davlin Lotze [M.PIRE]
Sedith [MC]
Count Tasessine [ISS]
Retsej [RZR]
Tyraxx Thorkk [IAC]*
Protectories [GS]
The End [M.PIRE]*
Cole Minor [MM]
n/a [MC]*, n/a [D2]*, n/a [D2]*, n/a [FIX]*, n/a [Sparta]*

Capitals: Unknown, but surely nearing (if not already surpassing) 300-400.
The battle of F-T alone ensures that the capital ratio will favor the GBC.

Large POSes: Unknown, but surely nearing (if not already surpassing) 200.
The losses taken by BoB in XGH, 9-9, and Omist alone ensures that the POS ratio will favor the RSF. Even those lost by D2/IRON are likely balanced by those lost by LV or those lost by the New North by the reinvasion RZR/MM.


* Refers to kills of debatable merit or value. All supercaps killed during build are included, as the monetary losses are less significant than live kills (fittings comprise a significant portion of supercap cost). This also private motherships, like the FIX one blown up in build and The End's mothership, and Tyraxx Thorkk's mothership, given to him by a disgruntled BoB pilot who had barely ever used it. I may be unaware of other supercaps aborted in build; the omission is not intentional.


Net Territory Gains/Losses

At one point in not-so-distant memory, this could have been considered a draw. LV's destruction and loss of territory to the RSF was balanced due to the removal of D2, IRON, and FLA from the north by MC-led forces and the defection of YW. However, MC's withdrawl from combat months ago left the numerous installed alliances vulnerable to regrouped Old North forces (primarly MM and RZR, as well as Pure, a relocated IRON, D2 splinter groups, etc) as well as emerging third-party Triumvirate.

WhatIsItGoodFor
Minmatar
Absolutely Nothin
Posted - 2007.10.09 15:51:00 - [2]
 

Edited by: WhatIsItGoodFor on 09/10/2007 15:53:09
What little gains that could be claimed by GBC forces in the north currently rest with YW -- originally holding Cloud Ring and in the Old North camp, YW defected and claimed Pure Blind and Fade. With Triumvirate now setting their sights on YW's territory, it's hard to expect that even this territorial gain will last for long.

Ultimately, the territorial "score" in the north largely hangs on Triumvirate; when YW territory falls to Tri (and it will), all Old North net losses will have ended up in Triumvirate hands or those of Tri renters/allies. Triumvirate appears to be more friendly with Old North entities, setting temp-naps with RZR/MM for joint ops, and only territorially invading the New North alliances installed by MC. On the other hand, they also recently killed a MM mothership piloted by Cole Minor. The politics of the North remain murky at best for the public. As long as Triumvirate remains a third-party in the northwest (even if they have some sort of non-invasion pact with the Old North), the full Northern theater must be scored as a loss to the Old North/RSF side relatively equal to that of LV in the south. However, unlike RSF in the south, the GBC has gained no net ground in the north.

Naturally, the above analysis is strictly regional losses that are unlikely to change in the near future.

More recent events in Catch and Feythabolis can also be factored in, but largely result in a draw -- 4 IAC stations taken by the GBC, compared to 4 SoCo/RMF/ISS stations taken by RSF. However, the situations in Catch and Feythabolis are still developing and could change quickly:

- Catch is very volatile, and it remains to be seen whether IAC will collapse or IAC/AAA/RA forces can regroup to regain lost ground. Before this weekend, Seleene has claimed that IAC is falling apart internally, while Tyraxx Thorkk remained optimistic; at this point, only those IAC membership (and any spies) know the truth of their situation, and only those within RSF/IAAAC leadership know whether there are contingency plans in place to recover from the loss of western Catch.

- Feythabolis counts do not include the RIT triangle held by RISE; after a failed territorial invasion by KOS and RSF forces a month ago, RISE has been weakened by the constant presence of Pandemic Legion gangs and Goonswarm recon gangs. Their alliance numbers have dropped by roughly 20% in the last month, most sharply within the last 10-14 days. It's not unlikely that another territorial invasion of RIT is forthcoming, and it's questionable whether RISE will be able to put up any resistance -- once again forcing BoB to either ping-pong from Catch to Feyth to defend, or allowing a Sov 4 constellation fall to RSF forces.

WhatIsItGoodFor
Minmatar
Absolutely Nothin
Posted - 2007.10.09 15:52:00 - [3]
 

Edited by: WhatIsItGoodFor on 10/10/2007 00:00:26
Overall Net Result

Hundreds of Large POSes, hundreds of capital ships, 16 motherships, and four Titans all consumed by this war thus far, with ISK value of all ships and POS losses likely numbering in the trillions at this point.

The net result is as follows:

- Two alliances perceived as major players are dead (D2/IRON, LV). For the most part, LV splinters either merged with BoB (Shinra, Finfleet) or were installed by MC as part of the New North (M.Pire, FATAL) and were later removed by the Old North; D2 splinters have largely scattered, with Mostly Harmless residing in the northern drone regions, Kraftwerk residing in a western corner of Scalding Pass, and Ev0ke holding EC-P8R in Pure Blind.

- The primary territorial benefactors of the collapse of D2 and LV have been third-party Triumvirate, and RSF and RSF allies (UNL and VENOM), respectively.

- The GBC has gained or lost no territory that is not currently contested in some way. The remaining gains, held by YW, are currently under invasion by Tri. The GBC gains in Catch and losses in Feythabolis are still far from settled. If you assume that the GBC will hold gains in Catch, and fail to regain losses in Feythabolis (an even assumption), then it is a wash at 4 stations each.

Thus we currently find ourselves at a point where every side that still holds territory can lay a legitimate claim to "winning," or at least "not losing."

RSF-allied forces have gained net ground and have the momentum in Feythabolis.

The GBC has not gained or lost any net ground (assuming YW falls, which is a fair assumption -- sorry YW) and have the momentum in Catch.

The Old North lost ground to MC-led forces but reclaimed a significant portion of it, with Triumvirate claiming the rest -- whether RZR/MM/Pure enter the larger War in a renewed full offensive, either in Fountain or to reinforce IAC/AAA/RA in Catch, remains to be seen; according to one Pure member, they have been ordered to do the latter, but that did not include capitals or battleships. However, it is fair to say that the current incarnation of the Old North is leaner and more dedicated than it was when D2 was the centerpiece alliance, and they would represent a significant force in the larger war.

The net losers have been, obviously, D2/IRON and LV and their resultant splinter alliances, none of whom can be considered major players in the war compared to the remaining powerblocs.

Conclusion

Eight months in, and the war has changed the map quite a lot. The southeast and north have undergone massive changes -- twice, each -- and two of the alliances considered major players have long been removed. New alliances (whether tenants renting space or smaller allies installed in conquered space) have sprung up and fallen in both the south and the north.

And yet, the north appears to be stabilizing territorially once again. Southern battle lines are not far from where they were after the fall of LV (which was nearly seven months ago). So many resources have been lost, and entire regions have traded hands and back again, and yet the battle lines don't look all that different than they did one month into the war.

In other words, despite a whole lot happening... not a lot has happened in the grand overview. There's still a lot of war left to look forward to before either of the two remaining major powerblocs in the south (BoB/MC, RSF) are pushed into what could be qualified as homeland defense.



Tomorrow will be War Analysis Part 1: Death of Alliances. This will examine possible ways that Alliances die as a result of war, and which particular alliances in the greater War are vulnerable to them, highlighting the uniqueness of this War and the players involved compared to a more traditional war (like those that have gone on in the north after the MC-led invasion).

Septus Octavianus
Caldari
TEKNO
Posted - 2007.10.09 15:56:00 - [4]
 

Shocked

Kryztal
Caldari
Evolution
IT Alliance
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:01:00 - [5]
 

Actually a nice read, props.

Shamis Orzoz
Minmatar
Sniggerdly
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:02:00 - [6]
 

Not a bad writeup. Neutral reporting may still exist?


The StrayDawg
Caldari
GoonFleet
Band of Brothers
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:03:00 - [7]
 

Just curious who you are/what is are your sources?

Lucius Ventrue
Minmatar
Brutor Tribe
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:04:00 - [8]
 

Would say it looks pretty accurate

gicaduru
Gallente
PROFTECH
Shadow of xXDEATHXx
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:05:00 - [9]
 

This was pretty good.

DeTox MinRohim
Minmatar
Madhatters Inc.
The Initiative.
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:06:00 - [10]
 

Heh... indeed, not bad at all.

Fire Hawk
Gallente
Destructive Influence
IT Alliance
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:13:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: The StrayDawg
Just curious who you are/what is are your sources?


For a lot of journalists or neutral writers, the history, reality and facts are their main sources.

Hans Roaming
Gallente
Body Count Inc.
Mercenary Coalition
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:14:00 - [12]
 

Originally by: Shamis Orzoz
Not a bad writeup. Neutral reporting may still exist?




Totally agree, I started reading expecting a post blatantly pro one side or the other and find a refreshing change.

Mungad
Caldari
Infinity Enterprises
Odyssey.
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:16:00 - [13]
 

Good work.

Lief Siddhe
Gallente
Siddhean Inc.
Intaki Prosperity Initiative
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:18:00 - [14]
 

Finally a nice summary post to actually try and discern what has been happening in the last 8 months for those of us who are not a part of the Big War.

Threv Echandari
Caldari
Moira.
Rote Kapelle
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:20:00 - [15]
 

Wow, invective free reporting. I must be in some other game's forums.

Moe Sczyzlak
Caldari
Destructive Influence
Band of Brothers
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:23:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: Threv Echandari
Wow, invective free reporting. I must be in some other game's forums.


^what he said. Great summary.

Revan Neferis
Amarr
Bloodveil
BLOOD EMPIRE
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:25:00 - [17]
 

Impressive.

Raynar Alcohol
Gallente
The Executives
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:26:00 - [18]
 

Excellent summary. I'm looking forward to the next postings.

Dark Shikari
Caldari
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:27:00 - [19]
 

Edited by: Dark Shikari on 09/10/2007 16:29:51
Originally by: WhatIsItGoodFor
Capitals: Unknown, but surely nearing (if not already surpassing) 100-150.

Vastly more than that, I would think. There have probably been over 100 capital losses by both sides combined in the past month alone, let alone since the start of the war. If you count all of the various allies of each side (as you seem to be with M.Pire, for example), the numbers are likely even higher. If I had to make a wild guess I'd put capital ship kills in total at well over 500.

The only people that are truly winning the war are the capital ship producers. Laughing

Maximillian Bayonette
Gallente
White Lion Manufacture and Salvage
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:27:00 - [20]
 

I wish every CAOD topic could be like this one. Good work OP.

Darknesss
Gallente
V0LTA
VOLTA Corp
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:28:00 - [21]
 

Edited by: Darknesss on 09/10/2007 16:32:05
I like it, fairly accurate without making wild assumptions.

Well Done.

olzi
Caldari
NPC Corporation
Paisti Syndicate
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:32:00 - [22]
 

Very enjoyable read.

Connen
Gallente
Silver Fox Ironworks
Black Star Alliance
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:34:00 - [23]
 

1st. LOL @ your name.
2nd. Excellent writeup.
3rd. You've made Goons and BoB agree on something 0.o
4th. Please fix ingame lag. Thanks.

WhatIsItGoodFor
Minmatar
Absolutely Nothin
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:41:00 - [24]
 

Originally by: Dark Shikari
Edited by: Dark Shikari on 09/10/2007 16:29:51
Originally by: WhatIsItGoodFor
Capitals: Unknown, but surely nearing (if not already surpassing) 100-150.

Vastly more than that, I would think. There have probably been over 100 capital losses by both sides combined in the past month alone, let alone since the start of the war. If you count all of the various allies of each side (as you seem to be with M.Pire, for example), the numbers are likely even higher. If I had to make a wild guess I'd put capital ship kills in total at well over 500.


This was an early estimation from when I began writing this up, and I failed to go back and revise it (as I did with the Supercap list and POS estimations, which I think is closer to accurate). Both estimates were meant to be low so as to avoid hyperbole, but at the time I hadn't yet decided whether I would be strictly writing this regarding the two major powerblocs remaining, or including LV and D2/IRON, let alone the New North such as M.Pire/FATAL/CoW and RZR/MM losses when fighting them.

I would agree, the capital ship estimation should be much higher; 400-500 seems reasonable, but it's all an estimation unless someone takes the time and effort to look through all the relevant killboards. Since my point with the estimation was simply to illustrate the staggering losses involved (which is easy to forget when the war is still going so strong), I'm not going to bother trying to come up with a more exact count.

Xalorn
Amarr
Battlestars
GoonSwarm
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:44:00 - [25]
 

Nice propaganda piece to make it look as though BoB is still stalemating.

You forgot to put a relative perspective on it. In the last 3 months, BoB has had massive territorial losses in the south, and their only claim to victory is a single station system.

Meanwhile their lovely allies MC are forced to give up their northern claim, RISE is practically non-existent, CoRM has been ravaged, and the front, which used to be XGH, is now in Feythabolis.

1 victory vs 100 losses. Yeah, you're right. Its a draw.

Oh I have an idea, lets take the timeline back further when BoB as fighting someone insignificant so you can cancel out recent losses.

SigmaPi
Gallente
Valkyr Industries
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:45:00 - [26]
 

tbh, this is an excelent write up.

10/10 for the effert involved.

M00dy
Minmatar
Killed In Action
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:47:00 - [27]
 

Nice write up. Looking forward to more.

Louis DelaBlanche
Gallente
An Outlying Variable
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:48:00 - [28]
 

saw a wall of text & dreaded a James315 under another name thread. But after reading it its actually a fair analysis of The War. kudos for taking the time to write it n hope the next parts are of as good calibre.

SigmaPi
Gallente
Valkyr Industries
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:49:00 - [29]
 

Originally by: Xalorn
Nice propaganda piece to make it look as though BoB is still stalemating.

You forgot to put a relative perspective on it. In the last 3 months, BoB has had massive territorial losses in the south, and their only claim to victory is a single station system.

Meanwhile their lovely allies MC are forced to give up their northern claim, RISE is practically non-existent, CoRM has been ravaged, and the front, which used to be XGH, is now in Feythabolis.

1 victory vs 100 losses. Yeah, you're right. Its a draw.

Oh I have an idea, lets take the timeline back further when BoB as fighting someone insignificant so you can cancel out recent losses.



lol, Just because an all encompasing war report doesnt favor your particular side doesnt make it impartial. The report as a whole is very accurate and unbiased. Sure it could have had a few other things about how BoB has been pushed back, but it could have had a lot more about how we were pwned to start in the north... Its a war report covering 8 months in less than a page of content.

Kalissa
Caldari
Sacred Templars
RED.OverLord
Posted - 2007.10.09 16:53:00 - [30]
 

Looking forward to the 2nd part, hope it's as good as the first.


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