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blankseplocked Mercenary Coalition FanFest Lottery - Caldari Navy Raven & HACs!
 
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Seleene
Body Count Inc.
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2005.10.18 15:08:00 - [91]
 

Originally by: Black Kestrel
Hit 40 yet?


Almost!

Originally by: Falzone

Can you put a limit in place so only 40 tickets will be sold? I don't like the odds above 40 really.


Considering that the combined value of the ships is more than the value of 40 tickets, I'm afraid not. But even if 50 tickets are sold, 1 ticket still gives you a 1 in 7 chance of winning and that's not bad at all considering what's on the table. Smile

Ikvar
A Blue Goat
Posted - 2005.10.18 15:13:00 - [92]
 

I'd buy a few tickets if I could log on for long enough to send the ISK Mad

Seleene
Body Count Inc.
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2005.10.18 15:21:00 - [93]
 

Originally by: Ikvar
I'd buy a few tickets if I could log on for long enough to send the ISK Mad


You've got until Friday 1800 EVE time, Ikvar! I'll keep a close eye on Oveur to make sure he doesn't rig the drawing! Wink

Draximus Cane
Infestation.
The Church.
Posted - 2005.10.18 16:24:00 - [94]
 

Originally by: Falzone
Edited by: Falzone on 18/10/2005 09:53:33
Can you put a limit in place so only 40 tickets will be sold? I don't like the odds above 40 really.

Oh and hey drax.


Hey Falzone!

Im cheering you on, I have your name picked out in the MC sweepstake, so.... go win the ship!!

Black Kestrel
Dark-Rising
IT Alliance
Posted - 2005.10.18 19:32:00 - [95]
 

A quick review of probability

I can see some people are concerned about their chances of winning a prize versus their isk investment. I think in the end this is just something you should do because it is fun to participate in, but if you are looking at this lottery strictly as a business decision and are having trouble running the numbers, here they are. I am sure most people already know how to do these calcs, but thsi post is for those who might not know and wanna know their chances of winning.

I will run through the calculation a few different ways to give you a different sense of what kind of chances you will have:

Givens: 50 tickets sold(gotta have an estimate), drawn at random without replacement, all tickets same size and consistency, etc. yada yada.

Scenario 1: I buy one ticket: what are ym chances of winning any prize?
Well to start off, your ticket being as good as anyone else's, you would have a 1/50, or .02 probability to win that first ship. every time thereafter, if you do not win, you keep your 1 chance but subtract the total number of outcomes by 1 (to account for the fact that there is 1 less ticket in the hat now). This continues till all seven ships are gone. using this rule we can find that the chances to win any ship are like this for one ticket:

0.98*0.9796*0.979*0.9783*0.97826*0.9778*0.97728=0.8595 => 1-0.8595=.1405, or 14.5% chance to win any ship

if two tickets are pruchased it becomes more complicated because you can win a ship and still have 1 ticket in the raffle to possibly win again. The chances of capitalizing on any one of your two tickets, however, is nt so difficult and is shown here:

0.96*0.9592*0.9583*0.9574*0.9565*0.9556*0.9545=0.7371 => 1-0.7371=.2629, or 26.29% chance to win on one out of 2 tickets

As for the chance to win on both, ill try it but i may need someone better in math than myself to check it out.

(i did this using a tree diagram. im sure there's an easier way, but I can't think of it right now) Basically I found that there is a .0172, or 1.72%, chance of capitalizig on both tickets assuming exactly 50 are sold.

Anyway, I hope this helps get more tickets sold. Many peopel don't buy into lotteries thikning they have almost no chance of winning, but this one has fairly good odds (as long as you dont have the mindset that losing the CN Raven means losing the raffle entirely).

If I made a mistake correct me, I want everyone to have real probabilities to look at here.

Thanks

BK

Seleene
Body Count Inc.
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2005.10.18 19:58:00 - [96]
 

^^^ ShockedShockedShockedShocked

Wow. That's a lot of math. I need a headache pill now! Laughing

Sivona
Fairlight Corp
Rooks and Kings
Posted - 2005.10.18 20:53:00 - [97]
 

You did a 7 stage tree diagram Shocked

There are far easier ways to model this...i keep thinking poisson distribution for some reason but probably losing it...a reason i didn't do too well in my stats model

Black Kestrel
Dark-Rising
IT Alliance
Posted - 2005.10.18 21:00:00 - [98]
 

I'm still a stats newb, dunno what a pouisson distribution is :/

It only took me about 15 mins or so to do, considering I was running missions at the time. Not as long as it seems like really. I just hope people see this and have erstored faith about the raffle and their honest chances to win.

Just doing my part to better this event which I think is a great idea for the EVE world :)

Fester Addams
Minmatar
Posted - 2005.10.18 23:01:00 - [99]
 

Dont get me wrong Seleene, I was not trying to call you a scammer or anything I just felt it was apropriate to crunch the numbers.

As for what you would make from the whole thing...

You would without a doubt make minimum as much from selling the ships the conventional way as doing it this way, after all you are facilitating for a bunch of strangers to pay for another strangers brand new and valuable ship :)

You would undoubtedly be able to beat NAGA's prices as they have a waiting list that for some of the ships is getting to be very long, people are after all willing to pay alot more to get the ship now as oposed to in X days.

Black Kestrel, I found your goover of the statistics very enlightening, over 14% chance to win any of the ships is actually a fairly good chance as lotteries go but still a long way below what I would like to see before I get in on gambling.

Ikvar
A Blue Goat
Posted - 2005.10.18 23:06:00 - [100]
 

Originally by: Seleene
I'll keep a close eye on Oveur to make sure he doesn't rig the drawing!


I knew he hates me! Damn you Oveur! DAMN YOUUUUUUUUUUU!!!!!!

Aelius
Caldari
Mnemonic Enterprises
Dark Matter Coalition
Posted - 2005.10.18 23:08:00 - [101]
 

Don't you send a verification EVE-mail to confirm the tickets bought?

Black Kestrel
Dark-Rising
IT Alliance
Posted - 2005.10.19 01:46:00 - [102]
 

That's actually a good idea. I know I'd feel better knowing my tickets will be in the raffle if I got an EVE-mail confirming the receipt of cash.

Seleene
Body Count Inc.
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2005.10.19 04:39:00 - [103]
 

We have broken the 40 ticket barrier!

To those that asked for a confirmation email, I am replying to those who send a mail to Mercenary Empress (which is most everyone). Simply shoot her a mail saying you bought a ticket and I will reply to confirm. Smile

More updates as we get closer. I'm leaving in 10 minutes for the airport! Cool

Bloodspire
Aliastra
Posted - 2005.10.19 05:07:00 - [104]
 

1 ticket for me Very Happy
Sent the isk
Sent the eve-mail
Will be at the Fan Fest to See my beautiful new ship! Very Happy
So lady luck...where ever you are...come to Iceland and tap me on the shoulder please...

Pevaw
Expatria Inc
The Firm.
Posted - 2005.10.19 06:15:00 - [105]
 

Just sent the payment and evemail for a ticket. I think it's great that MC is doing something to help incorporate the people who can't make it to the FF as well as those that can this year. Hope those that are going have a great time and be sure to have some drinks and laughs on my behalf. Good luck to everyone who entered and a special thanks to Tovarishch for donating his CNR and to all others who donated the HAC's and Transport.
Pevaw

Trooper B99
Caldari
Body Count Inc.
Against ALL Authorities
Posted - 2005.10.19 12:45:00 - [106]
 

Edited by: Trooper B99 on 19/10/2005 12:45:32

As you may have already guessed, Sel's going to the FF so will be (for a short time) be unable to log in, send confimation eve-mails and update us on his progress unless he logs in from an airport terminal on his laptop like the EVE crazed person he is. Wink Be patient and expect updates soon™.

Good luck to everyone who's entered and remember, times a running out.

Oh and thanks for the statistics, I for one am rubbish with anything resembling complex maths or thought. Laughing

Seleene
Body Count Inc.
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2005.10.19 17:38:00 - [107]
 

OMG, Iceland looks like he damn moon! Where are the trees in this country??

Someone come get me and show me where I can get a steak??!!

The lottery is going strong. We've crossed fifty tickets! You still have until Friday night to get in on this awesome oppertunity. Very Happy

Aelius
Caldari
Mnemonic Enterprises
Dark Matter Coalition
Posted - 2005.10.19 17:45:00 - [108]
 

Originally by: Seleene
OMG, Iceland looks like he damn moon! Where are the trees in this country??

Someone come get me and show me where I can get a steak??!!

The lottery is going strong. We've crossed fifty tickets! You still have until Friday night to get in on this awesome oppertunity. Very Happy

Send me the bloody confirmation for my 2 tickets RazzWink

Black Kestrel
Dark-Rising
IT Alliance
Posted - 2005.10.20 01:16:00 - [109]
 

Trooper B99: You're very welcome.

Also, I showed up for my stats class today and lo and behold, we wre studying poissan distribution. I used the formula to calculate the chances of both tickets winning in the 50-ticket scenario and it came up with roughly .87%, significantly deviant from the 1.72% I got from the ladder. I asked the professor about it and he wasn't sure which was correct, seeing as the poissan is a mathematical estimation of a value rather than a precise figure.

But, since they broke the 50 ticket mark, none of my numbers are correct anymore heh. Obviously I underestimated ticket sales quite a bit Embarassed

Thanks

BK

Seleene
Body Count Inc.
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2005.10.20 09:46:00 - [110]
 

Originally by: Aelius
Send me the bloody confirmation for my 2 tickets RazzWink


Shoot me an email I can reply to! Cool

Seleene
Body Count Inc.
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2005.10.21 07:24:00 - [111]
 

Due to the way the events at FanFest have been scheduled, the drawing will now take place on Saturday night!

Chribba
Otherworld Enterprises
Otherworld Empire
Posted - 2005.10.21 07:29:00 - [112]
 

Mmmm Ibis... I mean raven.

Invisible Touch
Caldari
Mythos Corp
RAZOR Alliance
Posted - 2005.10.21 09:25:00 - [113]
 

Saturday night huh? Hm... I think I can wait Very Happy

Sorry to bother you Seleene, since you obviously are having tons of fun in the landofnotrees but can we have the final number of tickets, etc., since participation is now final?

Thank you in advance.

Seleene
Body Count Inc.
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2005.10.21 09:59:00 - [114]
 

Ticket count will not be final until 1800 EVE time today but right now it's at 61. Cool

Draximus Cane
Infestation.
The Church.
Posted - 2005.10.21 10:05:00 - [115]
 

Originally by: Seleene
Ticket count will not be final until 1800 EVE time today but right now it's at 61. Cool


So does that mean people STILL have the chance to get a 2 billion ship for just 50 million, by sending the isk to Mercenary Empress?

Bazman
Caldari
Agony Unleashed
Agony Empire
Posted - 2005.10.21 10:11:00 - [116]
 

Man, i never win these things anyway. And 50mil is half my wallet right now :o

Brannor McThife
Stimulus
Rote Kapelle
Posted - 2005.10.21 11:31:00 - [117]
 

Um... it's my Birthday on Sunday. And I'm in Africa...far away from the FF... someone want to be nice and buy me a ticket for my birthday? Smile

Oh well. Wish 50mil was like 1/5 of what I have, instead of 11/10th's...
Good luck to you all, and have a ball at the FF.

-G

Invisible Touch
Caldari
Mythos Corp
RAZOR Alliance
Posted - 2005.10.21 11:33:00 - [118]
 

Originally by: Seleene
Ticket count will not be final until 1800 EVE time today but right now it's at 61. Cool


Geez, how on earth did I think participation was final... Embarassed Must have been this morning's coffee was bugged. Apologies for the stupid question and thanx for the reply.Wink

Zajo
Sebiestor Tribe
Posted - 2005.10.21 11:47:00 - [119]
 

Let me get this straight ...

So even if the draw is tomorrow (Saturday 22:e) everyone still has until today 18.00 EVE time to buy a ticket? Or has that been moved to tomorrow?

Sarah Ponytails
Posted - 2005.10.21 11:49:00 - [120]
 

You could have just said "bump"


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