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blankseplocked did the value of isk increase lately?
 
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Feta Solamnia
Posted - 2005.09.13 13:01:00 - [1]
 

Edited by: Feta Solamnia on 13/09/2005 13:01:25
Hello, I've been having this feeling that the value of isk somehow went up a bit lately.
All prices seem to have gone a tad bit down, even the t2 market was affected along with the t2 bpo's.

I'm not sure though, that's why this thread is up.

Maybe there actually was a massive outflow of isk from the game through capital ships? Did the banstick on those "isk sellers" kill lotsa isk too?
Or am I just seeing things because I'm out of hallucinogens?

EDIT: c'mon Oveur, check the logs and gimme signature materialRazz

Matthew
Caldari
BloodStar Technologies
Posted - 2005.09.13 14:25:00 - [2]
 

I've noticed some effects at the top and bottom of the market, but the middle seems to be holding relatively steady.

In the top (rare T2, T2 bpos, capital ships, faction stuff etc), there seems to be a downward trend. I believe this can be directly attributed to the depleted isk stocks of the super-rich. Previously, these items were the absolute top of the market. Prices were dictated by the free isk stocks of those who could afford to buy them. People paid huge amounts for them because they had nothing else to spend their isk on. Recent patches have added a whole new layer onto the top-end with capital ships, outposts etc. As well as the initial drain of isk, this is going to supress the prices of faction/rare T2 etc permanently. The super-rich are going to have other uses for their isk, so aren't going to be as free with it when buying other things.

At the bottom end (minerals, mostly) too, prices are falling. This is due to a combination of increased supply, and reduced distribution costs. Since the string of agent nerfs, I've noticed a significant resurgence in mining activity increasing the mineral supply. Freighters have greatly eased the transport of vast quantities of low-end minerals. This has served to flatten out the "hub effect" which had previously supported a huge price premium.

The one thing I haven't noticed is a significant movement in the T1 market. The falling mineral prices do not seem to be carrying through to the T1 market in a significant way. For some things, prices are still increasing. From this, I would suggest that although there is a redistribution and adjustment going on, overall, the economy and the value of isk is holding steady.

It's also important to remember the difference between deflation and recession. Deflation is the increase in the value of isk/reduction in prices. It's not necessarily bad, especially as there are so many unusual factors providing external shocks to the eve economy right now. Deflation just has a bad name because of the situations where it's usually found in RL economies. Thankfully, Eve can get away with things that RL economies can't.

The real concern should be recession - a reduction in the value of the global output of the eve universe. This would indicate a failure in the player economy, and would need to be addressed. Fortunately, we don't seem to be in that position yet.

Something that may become an issue, however, is a reduction in per-capita output. Eve seems to experience a large wave of new players after each major patch, with slower steady growth the rest of the time. This population growth can actually trigger an initial downturn, as the new players are demanding, but unable to be hugely productive - reducing per-capita output of the economy. As the players mature, they will trigger a spurt of growth, with the associated inflationary pressures.

Rthor
Gallente
Smugglers Inc.
Posted - 2005.09.13 14:59:00 - [3]
 

I think that we are in recession. There are 3 things at least that changed with last patch.

1. Level 4 agent rewards were greatly decreased. This basically means that one of if not the most profitable career in eve was wiped out. If you wipe out such a profession there is no way that it will not have a negative effect on the economy. Sure it helped with fighting inflation by killing this, but now all these people have to find something else to do and nothing is as profitable so they feel poorer, spend less, etc.

2. Yulai, the main market in the Eve universe was destroyed. I think that if you destroyed NYSE and then said well there is NASDAQ, there is London so we dont need NYSE, well it would not be good for the economy if you destroyed NYSE. At the very least I now have to find another market and other people have to agree with me and buyers and sellers have to meet there.

3. People blew their isk savings on capital manufacturing components. So a lot of isk was taken out of the game. So the value of remaining isk increased. So this was deflationary. At the very least it means that some people are taking a wait and see attitude with regard to their decision on how to spend their isk, waiting for the new price level to be established. For example I will not sell tritanium for 2 isk if I think that maybe in a week it will be at 3 again.

There were some good things for economy that came with the patch too:
1. Freighters definitely reduce transport costs. They also make it possible to mine in certain systems which was not cost effective before so you probably have some extra mineral supply as a result.
2. Refining facilities added to stations. This helps with mining certain systems.

Maybe I am missing some other positive factors but I think that the negative outweigh the positive and so I think that we are in recession.

Dreck Morrison
Amarr
No Quarter.
Vae Victis.
Posted - 2005.09.13 20:53:00 - [4]
 

I am inclinded to believe that the supply of isk has dropped significantly. Take a gander at how many capital component, dreadnaught, and freighter BPOs have been bought in the last 2 months. Add to that total at least 5 Outposts at ~18B isk a pop and some serious isk has left the game via the hands of NPC corps.

As was said above, the ability to earn isk per hour has not gone up...but I think may have even declined with new players and nerfing of level 4 missions. So if every mega rich person in the game dropped that much isk they will be a couple of months mining or npc hunting to earn back what was spent. Yet we now also have wars and conflict in many of the best isk earning areas......a recipe for an economy stall is in the works. Which means those with lots of isk probably won't be passed if they just sit still and pvp for a bit.

Dreck Morrison

Dark Shikari
Caldari
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2005.09.13 23:29:00 - [5]
 

I think the capital component BPOs have sucked a MASSIVE amount of ISK out of the market. Combined with lower level 4 agent rewards this has lowered the amount of ISK in the game massively, causing prices to go down and the price of minerals to go down--deflation.

Rawne Karrde
Bre-X Interstellar Shipyards
Ejectile Dysfunction
Posted - 2005.09.14 00:36:00 - [6]
 

I've posted about this before. I have also noticed a decrease in the prices for things overal. Named loot etc... As for isk leaving the game, I know of about 5-9 corps that together spent about 110 bil on capital ship bpo's and there are many more than that who spent their isk.

As a producer I have also seen people's reluctance to pay higher prices. T2 bpo's have been going for prices cheaper than previously seen. I think that part of this is attributed to pvp'ers needing some hard currency whether its due to the wars or the purchase of capital ships.

Its an interesting time in the market place. The value of isk as increased in some area's and remained the same in a few others.

Callan Skiderlar
LIfeline Incorporated
Posted - 2005.09.15 15:52:00 - [7]
 

What I am watching quite closely is what the perceived value is of this new higher-level arms race. As people start training skills and POSs and dreads start dying off in war, will people find the rewards for dread/POS warfare worth the risks? Is it worth risking billions on attacking or defending moon locations? There is an initial novelty, to be sure, but once people start losing dreads one way or the other, will it be worth it?

The means of gaining profit is the same as it ever was, but now the cost of doing business for low-sec folks is a lot higher. I wonder if that will not serve to dampen the market on an ongoing basis.

Stepping Razor
Gallente
The Scope
Posted - 2005.09.16 21:20:00 - [8]
 

Yes. Those new BPOs were great Isk sinks. Not to mention shuttles...


Deovina
Posted - 2005.09.17 00:08:00 - [9]
 

Edited by: Deovina on 17/09/2005 00:17:05
I did some counting and ended up with a bit more than 400 Capital Ship BPOs sold sofar (might have missed 1-2 regions due to market bugs).
If one assumes a price of 1.75b per BPO that would conclude to a total investment of around 0,7 trillion isk.

I didn't count the Construction BPOs but the should be around the same ammount (if people thought properly :) and a bit higer.

So an conservative estimate would be 1,2-1,5 trillion ISK (=1400b) invested in Capital Production so far. (and most BPOs were sold on the first days/month)

Just to give you guys an idea.

Aliksr
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
Posted - 2005.09.18 01:31:00 - [10]
 

Some really good points Matthew

Magma stopped recording mineral prices in march, does anyone know if anyone picked up the ball? I'd be really interested to see a graph since the release of exodus of the construction price of an apoc (the closest thing to an eve gold standard besides the price of isk on -censored- lol)

Personally i think the changes can be better understood in context of the past, so here's my theory:

The cause of the big spike in prices before freighters were released was threefold in my opinion:

1. people with big stockpiles of isk spending that isk on new content.

2. lots and lots of new bpo lottery releases. people who sell t2 blueprints are very likely to spend that isk cycling it through the economy and raising prices

3. people who did not have lots of assets who started to do complexes or run level 4 missions and got that one big item, loyalty points were reaching a critical mass and the number of people receiving sudden payouts hit the steep part of the log curve. again, like the lottery, someone with no assets who suddenly gets an xlarge dread guristas sheild booster is likely to spend that money on T1 stuff and cheap named, that filters the money to a wide base of people and results in a high multiplier of economic activity like welfare cheque day or something.


So the demand-led boom in buying stopped when they started releasing a lot of isk sinks and the multiplier effect reversed.

Activity and prices will pick up once more people have trained the skills to use all the new content. We're seeing the thin edge of the wedge, where outposts and freighters are still rare. Battleships were rare once too, so it's only a matter of time.

Mangold
Mad Bombers
Guns and Alcohol
Posted - 2005.09.26 11:06:00 - [11]
 

If I follow your thoughts you're saying that prices will continue to drop for a short period and then increase again.

That makes sense to me.

James Aubry
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2005.09.27 04:10:00 - [12]
 

Edited by: James Aubry on 27/09/2005 04:15:06
about 3 months ago I escaped a futile war in 0,0 in a burnt out pod with only enough ISK to buy a basic badger and start over trading - lost all modules, bps, etc.

Before I left for some time at the beach 3 weeks ago, I traded indusrial commodities in Lonetrek with Nonni as one end of the Pipeline and Korama the other end.

I made close to a billion ISK.

I came back from the beach and found prices were not behaving as they did -- e.g., the price for electronic parts which would give me more than 100 isk profit per unit now often will not provide half that. Other goods are also flattening out.

The buy prices are inflated and the sell prices are depressed.

I am curious as to the cause for the market flattening like this -- too many small truckers, perhaps.

Not even being able to carry 28,200 m3 a load can overcome this sort of bear market.

I wonder if it is patch related -- or if other regions might offer better opportunity.

Having made it necessary for me to train up all these new missile skills and then some before flying a Raven again makes any sense, I've found trading a good way to spend the time.

But now the market seems to be saying it is oversaturated with demand around Nonni.

Is it the same in Placid or Essence?

Emily Spankratchet
Minmatar
Pragmatics
Posted - 2005.09.27 08:18:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: James Aubry

I am curious as to the cause for the market flattening like this -- too many small truckers, perhaps.

Not even being able to carry 28,200 m3 a load can overcome this sort of bear market.

I wonder if it is patch related -- or if other regions might offer better opportunity.



The market is similarly flat in regions that I used to NPC trade in - Metropolis and Verge Vendor are two that I had a poke around in recently.

A lot of people are blaming the advent of freighters, but I have no idea if this is the real cause.

Jennai
GoonFleet
GoonSwarm
Posted - 2005.09.27 09:01:00 - [14]
 

Originally by: Emily Spankratchet
Originally by: James Aubry

I am curious as to the cause for the market flattening like this -- too many small truckers, perhaps.

Not even being able to carry 28,200 m3 a load can overcome this sort of bear market.

I wonder if it is patch related -- or if other regions might offer better opportunity.



The market is similarly flat in regions that I used to NPC trade in - Metropolis and Verge Vendor are two that I had a poke around in recently.

A lot of people are blaming the advent of freighters, but I have no idea if this is the real cause.


maybe also the large increase in population since cold war? or do the order quantities adjust to the number of players?

James Aubry
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2005.09.28 04:18:00 - [15]
 

Given the flattening market for NPC trading, I may have to delve into the module market or the bp market, which I've found in the past carries extreme risk and some pretty long periods between laying out the cash and getting a sale.

It's enough to make one go back to mining - but then they've made that most unattractive by forcing me to do it in low sec space since I cannot anchor cans in safe space. So I'd have to do it in a group, which doesn't work well with my limited schedule for online playing time. So mining seems out --

There's always missions, but they don't pay well, pay less well now, and take more time for less return than even mining.

I guess what I'm saying is I'm losing my enthusiasm due to all these adjustments they've made just since the beginning of the year.

I may put my character and all his wealth up for bid soon at this rate and throw in the towel.


Ramblin Man
Empyreum
Posted - 2005.09.28 05:41:00 - [16]
 

I saw the so-called Apoc-standard mentioned here, but out of personal curiosity have there been any efforts to establish a multi-good CPI and/or PPI?

Lafiele
Caldari
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Posted - 2005.09.29 09:43:00 - [17]
 

I got 75 tech 1 BPOs for 125 mil ISK, and I thought it looked somewhat 'desperate' for someone to sell so many of them at once. Almost as if ISK was worth something again . . .


 

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