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CCP Fallout

Posted - 2011.09.01 12:57:00 - [1]
 

CCP Recurve's newest dev blog gives us the four price indices for July, 2011.

Chribba
Otherworld Enterprises
Otherworld Empire
Posted - 2011.09.01 12:58:00 - [2]
 

Whoop whoop!

Louis deGuerre
Gallente
Malevolence.
Posted - 2011.09.01 13:10:00 - [3]
 

The irony of linking to a discontinued service is not lost on me...ugh

Vincent Athena
Posted - 2011.09.01 13:23:00 - [4]
 

Odd, I do not see the runaway hyper-inflation supposedly being caused by all the ISK being generated by mission runners and null ratters. Could it be that the ISK supply is not really an issue?

Aquana Abyss
Posted - 2011.09.01 13:41:00 - [5]
 

All I know is competition keeps ramping up for EVERYTHING I try to sell on the market, prices seem to be going down and down.

The only people making ISK are speculators and resellers. Manufacturers still getting shafted.

ArchenTheGreat
Caldari
Pulsar Nebulah
Army of Lovers.
Posted - 2011.09.01 15:39:00 - [6]
 

Edited by: ArchenTheGreat on 01/09/2011 15:39:20
Isn't QEN dead?

Snape Dieboldmotor
Posted - 2011.09.01 18:54:00 - [7]
 

Why does this report have a link to a QEN from 2010? A link to a 2011 QEN would be more helpful.

Salpun
Gallente
Paramount Commerce
Posted - 2011.09.01 19:06:00 - [8]
 

Edited by: Salpun on 01/09/2011 19:56:40
I was going to build up a wiki page but as copy and paste will not work off of the PDF I am going to hold off for now.

All data forms in the QEN need their own pages that link back to the QEN's.

Please build them up for us and then relink to that page.

If they are already build up but not in the current wiki format please say so. We do not want to spend time doing work that is already done.

The main problem with making a wiki about these is the type of wiki created is it a incharacter page or out of character? If IC we need the final form Market info will be presented in game ie the team "NPC corp" that is publishing it.

Naryamn
Posted - 2011.09.01 19:25:00 - [9]
 

I clearly remember in Fanfest Dr.Eyjog saying that they were keeping an eye in Technitium prices and they were pretty sure there was no market manipulation!!!

Moons change hands and price starts to drop...strange!

niko ono
Caldari
The Graduates
Morsus Mihi
Posted - 2011.09.01 21:04:00 - [10]
 

how is a 2010 report useful in 09.2011? what did I miss?

Ms Michigan
Gallente
Aviation Professionals for EVE
Fusion Alliance
Posted - 2011.09.01 23:36:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: Aquana Abyss
All I know is competition keeps ramping up for EVERYTHING I try to sell on the market, prices seem to be going down and down.

The only people making ISK are speculators and resellers. Manufacturers still getting shafted.


(My .02 isk)

That's because something else bigger is going on and it is just being reflected in the market in the form of less goods being consumed and thus more market PVP for what is being sold.

I bet if you compare volume this year across the board to last year same time you will see a drop. Summer is a slow time in my past 3+ years with EVE but this summer seems slower, something is different...

Could it be that a lot of people actually did "leave" after this past spring and summer of CCP "fail" policies and basically telling their hardcore players that developers are beign pulled away for WOD and Dust? This could be fanboy drahma but I tend to see it as a real drop in players. I can roam low sec now and not have to worry about half as many people around. Again - could be summer...
Also - server numbers seem to be down - wouldn't you agree?

I tend to think so. A lot of hardcore Players I knew are gone or on "hiatus" I think those that are still around are just skill training and enjoying the summer to see what happens. PLEX prices shooting back up in the end of August here don't help. I wouldn't encourage CCP to engage in any "quantitative easing" policies though just yet.

Personally - I think they need to give team BFF their best resources as they are the hope to fix EVE. IMHO.

Follow that 1000 little cuts thread and work on those, then work on the null like they are doing and You will SEE EVE spring back to life (assuming you want the hardcore NULL boys and girls back).

Again - My .02 isk

Nirnaeth Ornoediad
Caldari
Clan Shadow Wolf
Fatal Ascension
Posted - 2011.09.02 04:25:00 - [12]
 

Technetium is falling because the Northern Coalition was quite good at managing the supply-side of things, thus artificially keeping prices at higher than fair-market values (like any good consortium would do). The DRF has proven less adept at doing this for some reason.

Wyke Mossari
Gallente
Posted - 2011.09.02 09:17:00 - [13]
 


The NC repeatedly denied in public that they were running a cartel on Techntium but intelligence continually suggested other wise. The fall in price indicates seems to confirm other wise.

The rise in price of T2 products is more interesting, the NC were known to be big producers of T2 goods and these facts make me wonder how many T2 BPO were removed from the economy during their fall, not just destroyed but also trapped in out posts and station deep in their old territory.

It makes me conclude the recent rise in prices of T2 end products is because invention is more expensive and the supply has been constrained and this confirms the opinion that the removal of T2 BPO would result in wide spread prices rises.


Kandreath
Posted - 2011.09.02 11:05:00 - [14]
 

Originally by: Salpun
Edited by: Salpun on 01/09/2011 19:56:40
I was going to build up a wiki page but as copy and paste will not work off of the PDF I am going to hold off for now.



Rather than wait, I checked the wiki, and didn't find anything. So I added it here:
[[http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Market_Indices]]

Cutting and pasting from the QEN was not a problem at all.


Knug LiDi
N00bFleeT
Posted - 2011.09.02 13:01:00 - [15]
 

Posting the values of four indicies without a complete technical description of the "basket of goods" making up each index is pointless.

Our dear Dr. E has also posted in the past of having to rework the basket of goods in one or more index. I must then ask, which basket of goods are included in which index, valued how, how is the basket proportioned between the items, and for what time periods has that basket of goods remained unchanged?

Good statistical service delivery includes disclosure on the makeup of their indicies.

So long as the methodology of the establishment of the index value is applied consistently across a time sequence, we can therefore evaluate the relative value of the index in that time. However, relating that index value to absolute values of goods is not possible without the complete disclosure of the index makeup.

We show that overall inflation is down. There is a shortage of ISK being spent by players, i.e. money is going into savings and not back into overall economy. Players are earning ISK and not spending it. What EVE's statisticians should be telling us is, while the price of goods are falling, are the volumes being consumed falling as well? Is demand falling or supply increasing ? WHICH is it?

Unlike RL, CCP has access to not just market information, but complete 100% access to all inventories held anywhere in the game. If the supply is increasing, is it because inventories are being reduced, or is creation increasing? These indicies cannot tell us that, but raw data can. If demand is increasing, is it because items are being destroyed or are they moving into inventory ?

These indicies only tell us when items move in and out of the market. They do not tell us anything about the volumes of items (and isk) outside the market. In a game with virtually no storage costs, the size of out of market assets could dwarf the size of the market volumes.

The non-market information, trivially available for CCP to present (in aggregate, of course, to protect the guilty) would provide consumers and producers alike key information that is available for many important goods in RL. Why, in a completely closed model, this information is not being provided is beyond me.

I would like (delayed for a month, if necessary) the ability to request the total number of any in-game item. Not just the number on the market, but everywhere in the game at one moment in time.

This is trivial to provide.

If CCP cannot stomach releasing (or allowing access to) the simple data, then fine, create an index for the total game numbers. An index, similarly disclosed for content and weighing, for major groups of items, like minerals, t2 ships, PLEX, and ISK.

I believe that raw data access is far easier to do, from an effort point of view, but I can imagine that CCP would prefer the index

Salpun
Gallente
Paramount Commerce
Posted - 2011.09.02 13:21:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: Kandreath
Originally by: Salpun
Edited by: Salpun on 01/09/2011 19:56:40
I was going to build up a wiki page but as copy and paste will not work off of the PDF I am going to hold off for now.



Rather than wait, I checked the wiki, and didn't find anything. So I added it here:
[[http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Market_Indices]]

Cutting and pasting from the QEN was not a problem at all.




Thanks not sure what i missedRolling Eyes
Edited with catagories and dev blog links


TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
Posted - 2011.09.02 15:26:00 - [17]
 

Originally by: Nirnaeth Ornoediad
Technetium is falling because the Northern Coalition was quite good at managing the supply-side of things, thus artificially keeping prices at higher than fair-market values (like any good consortium would do). The DRF has proven less adept at doing this for some reason.

Wrong.


Originally by: Wyke Mossari

The NC repeatedly denied in public that they were running a cartel on Techntium but intelligence continually suggested other wise. The fall in price indicates seems to confirm other wise.

Also wrong.

------

The ever climbing prices of Tc is mainly driven by speculation, it greatly exaggerates the natural incline that there would be (see the Tc post in MD why this is so)

The *main* reason for the Tc panic drop in price was due to the speculators pulling out (dumping their stockpiles) not NC/DRF differences in handling Tc.
Why did they pull out? - Because of rumors of a nerf to Tc moon distribution (scarcity) in an upcomming patch/expansion.
That didn't happen - and now look at the prices Razz


------

As for the tired old idea of a NC cartel...

Try and think for just a second... Try thinking about herding cats...
It's simply not doable to maintain such a cartel - To have everyone "play ball" (and not cheat each other)

A cartel on that scale in EVE - Impossible. Simple as.

Not that those who want to believe will change their mind Cool



SirHarryPierce
Posted - 2011.09.02 15:51:00 - [18]
 

Edited by: SirHarryPierce on 02/09/2011 15:51:21
Originally by: Salpun
Originally by: Kandreath
Originally by: Salpun


Cutting and pasting from the QEN was not a problem at all.




Good work both ;)

Baneken
Gallente
The New Knighthood
Apocalypse Now.
Posted - 2011.09.02 16:15:00 - [19]
 

Originally by: Nirnaeth Ornoediad
Technetium is falling because the Northern Coalition was quite good at managing the supply-side of things, thus artificially keeping prices at higher than fair-market values (like any good consortium would do). The DRF has proven less adept at doing this for some reason.


Or they had to sell their assets fast that is dump the moon goo on the market which for some odd reason tends to lower the prices quite considerably.

Kandreath
Posted - 2011.09.02 22:42:00 - [20]
 


Originally by: Salpun

Thanks not sure what i missedRolling Eyes
Edited with catagories and dev blog links



Thanks for that... I couldn't figure out how to link it in the category pages.

CCP Recurve

Posted - 2011.09.02 23:26:00 - [21]
 

The reason why I linked to the old QEN from 2010, which is the last published QEN, was that it contains a little more detail on how the indices are made. However, as has kindly been pointed out here, having a wiki page for that purpose makes far more sense. I will link to that page in the future. Many thanks for the suggestion and the execution.

Regarding the question on whether the QEN is dead, I can only say that it's no longer quarterly. The frequency of such publications is still being discussed but one idea is to make it an annual report.

CCP Recurve

Posted - 2011.09.02 23:29:00 - [22]
 

Originally by: Knug LiDi

I must then ask, which basket of goods are included in which index, valued how, how is the basket proportioned between the items, and for what time periods has that basket of goods remained unchanged?



A rough explanation of what kind of goods are in each index is provided at the wiki page:

The last QENs showed the exact weights in the Mineral Price Index at the end of each quarter. The other indices contain thousands of items, but I plan to show their composition in aggregate form. However, the weights change monthly. They are based on traded value for each item in the previous month, i.e. the weights used to calculate the July indices are derived from trade values in June. In other words, these are chained Laspeyres indices.

CCP Recurve

Posted - 2011.09.02 23:30:00 - [23]
 

Regarding Technetium, the collapse of a cartel would certainly lower prices, but it should also increase supply. Looking at the market history does not seem to indicate a significant increase in traded volume.

An oil cartel would mainly raise prices by limiting supply, i.e. reduce production. Any oil not pumped would just wait to be pumped at a later time and the reserves would last longer. This makes less sense for moon materials. They are a completely renewable resource that offers a fixed maximum quantity at any given time. Anything not harvested is a lost opportunity and stockpiling doesn't add any value in the long run.

I am therefore inclined to go with the speculation explanation.

Borot Par
Posted - 2011.09.03 15:55:00 - [24]
 

"The price of PLEX falls by 5% from June to July. The average price in July is on par with that of April. Speculative trading in PLEX, following a dev blog on virtual goods, seems to have created a modest spike in prices in May and June, which has now settled back at pre-blog levels."

PLEX prices falling, now discount for bulk purchases...

It appears that NEX is not going as expected...
I think that's why they cancelled QEN, to hide the NEX EPIC FAIL.

Maybe CCP gets some time, is a SPACESHIP game not a DOLL DRESSING game.

CCP Recurve

Posted - 2011.09.05 13:37:00 - [25]
 

For those interested in digging deeper and doing their own analysis, we refer to this dev blog.

Justin Cody
Caldari
T.A.L.O.N. Company
B4D W01F
Posted - 2011.09.07 09:02:00 - [26]
 

There was probably enough Tech on hand to go over the bump and new owners may be less greedy than old owners so prices adjusted downward as excess tech was sold off from private stocks and current orders were modified as the cartel as sorta busted.


 

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