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blankseplocked Leaving eve, 12 month market play?
 
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Red Oskold
Posted - 2011.08.27 12:56:00 - [1]
 

So for the second time in my eve career I've decided to take a break and play other games. There's a couple questions in here so see each paragraph before responding please.

Instead of just letting all my isk sit in the bank (got 3 bil on hand, 5-6 if I liquidate), I've decided to look into making a market play while I'm gone. So I thought I'd ask you guys for some input, I don't mean to be a suck up, but the IQ in this forum section is a solid order of magnitude above the others. Eve will be a very diff place in 12 months for sure, maybe they will fix hybrids and I could buy alot of them now (or whatever weapon might be FOTM in a year). I don't see any profit in buying ships, except maybe if the Eagle (if they fix hybrids that is). Ice seems high right now so its out, PI is only getting cheaper so its out too. Minerals might have some promise.

I thought about buying up plex's just cause of the irony, but they seem high right now too.

Second, I've got a rigged thanatos, as well as about 20 other rigged ships. what do you think about inflation? will they be worth more now or later?

Also what happens to market buy and sell orders after my sub expires?

Claire Voyant
Posted - 2011.08.27 13:22:00 - [2]
 

Think safety. Don't gamble. Diversify.

Don't sell any rigged ships, you'll take too much of a hit.

Put one third of your isk into PLEX.
Leave one third of your isk in the wallet.
Use the last third of your isk for commodity speculation. Some in things that seem depressed like Zydrine, some in things that you expect to keep going up like tech.

Longer term commodity plays might include more bot banning, moon goo re-rebalancing, and moving high-sec stuff to 0.0 space but none of those ideas seem like sure bets to me.

Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
Posted - 2011.08.27 18:15:00 - [3]
 

There's nothing that will have predictably have more worth 12 months from now, that's not how a game world functions. There's two expansions between now and then.

You should give the money to someone to invest throughout the period.

D'Kharr
Posted - 2011.08.27 20:08:00 - [4]
 

Edited by: D''Kharr on 27/08/2011 20:08:33
Some good advice already here but if you fancy a gamble consider how CCP can change the technecium money moons. One possible way is tech alchemy, try and work out what the reagents of this new alchemy might be and invest in those.

It's unlikely any of the lower moon mins will tank but if you guess right you could make big profits.

Red Oskold
Posted - 2011.08.27 20:36:00 - [5]
 

Originally by: Cista2
There's nothing that will have predictably have more worth 12 months from now, that's not how a game world functions. There's two expansions between now and then.

You should give the money to someone to invest throughout the period.


The more I think about it your probably right, there's no point in investing in mods or ships since where the nerfs and boosts go are to hard to predict. Guess that leaves commodities and consumables.

the comment about plexes. CCP has said they thing they cost to much and I don't see how they would let them get more expensive (only way I'll profit) without starting to manipulate the market so they get cheaper. But that is a whole different discussion.

Unfortunately I don't have any good invester friends in this game and I don't have enough time left to find a trustworthy one before my sub expires.

how about salvage? I can see CCP nerfing lvl 4 mission loot tables in the next year.

Plato Idari
Posted - 2011.08.27 21:58:00 - [6]
 

Edited by: Plato Idari on 27/08/2011 21:58:23
I'd guess tech 2 ships, given CCP's intention to make them null-sec exclusive industry.
-fixed

Barakach
Posted - 2011.08.27 23:32:00 - [7]
 

Edited by: Barakach on 27/08/2011 23:41:10
Send some money my way. I'm playing in the market and making growth.

I'll give you my full key so you can check it out. If you plan on doing it, I'll get your my email and phone, I've had the same phone and email for over 6 years. Just incase I stop playing or something. That way I can reactivate to give you your money back or what have you.

P.S. If you're even mildly courious, hit me up in game for a chat, I'm on most of the day on the weekends and whenever I can during the work week. I'm -6gmt aka Central Time in USA.

AmarrettoDiAmarr
Posted - 2011.08.28 00:39:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: Plato Idari
Edited by: Plato Idari on 27/08/2011 21:58:23
I'd guess tech 2 ships, given CCP's intention to make them null-sec exclusive industry.
-fixed


Considering the how much is dependent on the whims of CCP combined with what they have resources to do, there is nothing you can "invest" in. You can make some interesting gambles;

Hisec T2 production and probably hisec datacores getting nerfed hard/removed will obviously reduce the amount of empire production. And probably empire players as well. But if they get carried away with the 0.0 buffs, then the moon goo alliances may be able to churn out T2 sufficiently cheaper so that the price drops.


Claire Voyant
Posted - 2011.08.28 04:03:00 - [9]
 

Originally by: Red Oskold
the comment about plexes. CCP has said they thing they cost to much . . .

I would love to see where you are getting that, but I know it is probably just a misinterpretation of the "stabilization" statement.

Baljos Arnjak
Posted - 2011.08.28 06:01:00 - [10]
 

Edited by: Baljos Arnjak on 28/08/2011 06:05:27
Another thing to consider is that Dust514 is supposed to come out in the spring, and depending on how exactly Dust interacts with Eve, PI might not be a horrible investment at these low prices. It might be worth setting aside some cash to dump into PI as more details become available.

Edit: BUT! Since it is a brand new game, it wouldn't surprise me if CCP seeds the Dust markets with everything they need at first.

Red Oskold
Posted - 2011.08.28 14:43:00 - [11]
 

whats this about a datacore nerf?! I've probably got upwards of 600 mil isk buried in research agent research points. Should I cash them in and sell all the datacores before I go?

Zeerover
Wolfsbrigade
Posted - 2011.08.28 19:39:00 - [12]
 

There is some good possibilities within the ship market long term. Some specialized ships have prices that are extremely low compared to the other races, so much so that there is little risk in the prices falling further down, and a good chance that they'll increase considerably with game-changes, i.e. your downside is low compared to your potential up-side.

Eos: 136m
Astarte: 140m
Deimos: 85m

Compared to:
Claymore: 170m
Sleipnir: 253m
Vagabond: 135m

Damnation: 208m
Absolution: 196m
Zealot: 126m

You could buy up specific undervalued materials used in Gallente T2 production instead...

Tekota
The Freighter Factory
Posted - 2011.08.28 19:56:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: Red Oskold
whats this about a datacore nerf?! I've probably got upwards of 600 mil isk buried in research agent research points. Should I cash them in and sell all the datacores before I go?


Recollection is fading but I believe talk of a datacore nerf is greatly exaggerated (suprise); basically coming from a statement no more commital than "I'm not entirely happy with how we've got datacores implemented". Remembering that datacore prices are already massively down on pre agent quality buff levels I doubt they're going to go much further down. They *may* change the delivery mechanism from research agents to something else but unless they want to redo invention altogether (unlikely) they're still going to need to introduce substantial numbers via whatever mechanism. It's vaguely possible (but well into the realms of very wild speculation) that a replacement mechanism will introduce slightly fewer and bring up prices a little.

If I were going away for 12 months I'd probably do a quick fly round and collect all those cores *just in case* they change research agents into fluff, but I'd certainly not be rushing to sell them and would be happy enough to leave them be. Remember ghost farming went long ago so you won't be gaining any in the interim (if you're unsubbed).

As for long term bets you've got some fine advice above. Zydrine is the only one I keep thinking is due a turnaround but be aware I've thought that for at least the last three months and you can see how that's turned out.

Zenith Intaki
Gallente
Federal Defence Union
Posted - 2011.08.28 20:19:00 - [14]
 

Easy.

Megacyte.

Sky is the limit on megacyte.

AmarrettoDiAmarr
Posted - 2011.08.28 22:54:00 - [15]
 

Originally by: Tekota
Originally by: Red Oskold
whats this about a datacore nerf?! I've probably got upwards of 600 mil isk buried in research agent research points. Should I cash them in and sell all the datacores before I go?


Recollection is fading but I believe talk of a datacore nerf is greatly exaggerated (suprise); basically coming from a statement no more commital than "I'm not entirely happy with how we've got datacores implemented". Remembering that datacore prices are already massively down on pre agent quality buff levels I doubt they're going to go much further down. They *may* change the delivery mechanism from research agents to something else but unless they want to redo invention altogether (unlikely) they're still going to need to introduce substantial numbers via whatever mechanism. It's vaguely possible (but well into the realms of very wild speculation) that a replacement mechanism will introduce slightly fewer and bring up prices a little.

If I were going away for 12 months I'd probably do a quick fly round and collect all those cores *just in case* they change research agents into fluff, but I'd certainly not be rushing to sell them and would be happy enough to leave them be. Remember ghost farming went long ago so you won't be gaining any in the interim (if you're unsubbed).



Well Soundwave's quote from July did not seem that noncommittal to me; but who knows.

"Yeah, there are several issues we’ve run into – Research Points is one of them; I want to rip that whole system out and fix it."

"Rip that whole system out" - who knows what that means. Nor whether in fact he will have the resources to do anything. The idea of removing (or at least making it much more expensive to do in hi-sec) T-2 manufacturing still seems to be the plan being discussed on devblogs.

Tasko Pal
Aliastra
Posted - 2011.08.29 04:42:00 - [16]
 

Looking at some of these things, I have to comment. I wouldn't rule out a module play, since I'm making a module play with a two year horizon. CCP does have a history of boosting the weakest stuff eventually. But you really need to be around at the point of the boost in order to exploit higher prices.

As to mission loot, I'm dubious. There's a vast amount of supply out there so merely somewhat less supply isn't going to be significant. I'd guess that you're likely to exploit a loot boost only for well-used meta 4s that trade near their reproc prices or perhaps for rare stuff that only "recently" has started trading near its reproc price. There may be other factors such as how often the rat faction is missioned against that affect price. Research if you're interested.

The T2 ship thing sounds promising to me. Modules are at a level that's hard to predict, ships are easier.

As to minerals, I'm not counting on the high ends getting better until the low ends drop in price. It's easy to mine ABC in null sec or WH. One way is for CCP to let up on its macro/RMT suppression or the macros find a way around it. Another is the return of the insane industrialist or other low end mineral producing gimmick. But why would CCP bother? Seems more likely that current mineral prices will be around for a while. Another possibility is that some content sucks up a lot of high end mineral, but that seems a very long shot gamble.

My bets on datacores have been to buy up the absolute cheapest out there. My theory is that over long periods of time (say my two year investment horizon), the datacore farmers will diversify to the more profitable datacores and we'll see a leveling of most datacore prices (with the idea that the typical datacore farmer can switch between several datacores to exploit higher prices in one core). I haven't given it the greatest of thought, so there could be various gotchas out there that prove me wrong.

Taram Caldar
Royal Black Watch Highlanders
Warped Aggression
Posted - 2011.08.29 06:10:00 - [17]
 

12 months? Only way to do it would be to have someone you can trust invest it while you are gone or, if that's not an option, just sit on it. There is no way to predict what's going to happen to any market in the game 12 months from now.

Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
Posted - 2011.08.29 22:42:00 - [18]
 

Look at the historic relative prices, find what is lowest. Also pay attention to the conversations about null sec changes, see if you can determine which way CCP leans. Also note Dr E. has been making noises about new ISK sinks.

Diversify across those thigns which have, low relative price, are not primarly sourced in high sec, may have a higher future transaction cost than current costs.

Celeste Benal
Posted - 2011.08.30 09:10:00 - [19]
 

Send me 500M isk and I will double it when you come back.

Marcus Harikari
Posted - 2011.09.03 08:18:00 - [20]
 

I will be able to double your money, as well, within a year. Hell, within a year, I'm sure I could 20x it.

Slavemaster
Posted - 2011.09.03 10:59:00 - [21]
 

Edited by: Slavemaster on 03/09/2011 10:59:29
I say go for Megacyte, all inn. It will hit 3500 in a mouth time. Even more in 12 mounts reason
** End of High end Minerals in WH

.... And yes, I have invested in it

A Bankalt Kythera
Posted - 2011.09.03 11:12:00 - [22]
 

i'm a complete newbie, but is it possible to own a t2 BPO, lock it down safely, but allow a 3rd party access to it for manufacturing? perhaps in a dummy corp.

you would have to trust the 3rd party to pay for access for the year, but at the end of that time you would possibly have appreciation of the asset and any rent you recieved.

Kara Books
Posted - 2011.09.04 11:39:00 - [23]
 

Originally by: Claire Voyant
Think safety. Don't gamble. Diversify.

Don't sell any rigged ships, you'll take too much of a hit.

Put one third of your isk into PLEX.
Leave one third of your isk in the wallet.
Use the last third of your isk for commodity speculation. Some in things that seem depressed like Zydrine, some in things that you expect to keep going up like tech.

Longer term commodity plays might include more bot banning, moon goo re-rebalancing, and moving high-sec stuff to 0.0 space but none of those ideas seem like sure bets to me.


+1 to that.

Wyke Mossari
Gallente
Posted - 2011.09.05 01:04:00 - [24]
 

Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 05/09/2011 11:16:13
Long term investments with low downside risk.

  • One or more of the R64 (and possible the R32) Moon materials should rise following the speculated technetium nerf.

  • T3 Decryptors and datacores should see a rise as long term demand is likely to increase against a finite supply.

  • Unfashionable T2 ship hulls should benefit from planned rebalancing.



A very low risk would be low ball regional order for minerals and ice products use a minimum qty though these will only last for the first three months

Serenity Steele
Dynamic Data Distribution
Posted - 2011.09.05 09:11:00 - [25]
 

Originally by: A Bankalt Kythera
i'm a complete newbie, but is it possible to own a t2 BPO, lock it down safely, but allow a 3rd party access to it for manufacturing? perhaps in a dummy corp.

you would have to trust the 3rd party to pay for access for the year, but at the end of that time you would possibly have appreciation of the asset and any rent you recieved.


Yes this is entirely possible, the 3rd party needs to be in your corporation to do this. Easy way is to setup a corporation for the purpose, setup the rights accurately and then collect the cash.

The main issues for the OP are
- 3 to 4B is limited in T2 BPO purchase options
- profitability on said BPO may not be interesting enough to get a manufacturer for a year.
- You still need to check that the manufacturer is paying you.

Mr Kidd
Posted - 2011.09.05 13:20:00 - [26]
 

I think long term Plex is probably your best investment if only not to lose value. It's wanting to trend upwards, imo, above +400mil as seen before CCP popped it. And it didn't take too long to recover to current levels.

The NeX is probably an unrealized factor for upward pressure as CCP hasn't realized its full potential as of yet. Once they do realize the full potential, assuming they don't kill the game beforehand, Plex will have much more demand for its utility.

If I were going to leave now, I'd put it all in Plex.


 

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