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Ace Trader
Posted - 2011.08.21 22:35:00 - [1]
 

hi there i returned to eve recently to find i cant get anywhere with this game any more. im a wh raider and inventor which was my main isk maker and i was hitting at a very good % as by.

http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/invention_chance.php?base_chance=20&base_item=none&decryptor=modifier2&skill_encryption=5&skill_datacore_1=5&skill_datacore_2=5&precalculated_chance=hidden

on looking at this i trained hard and so that i was a top hulk inventor as this was a main ship used in eve and demand is very high.

ive been inventing since i returned via the corp hanger and out of my last 65 inventions using correct decryptors (engagment plan) and 10 run copy bps i have only hit 11 time out of a possible 65 invention jobs when i should be hitting around 25.20%
this would work out that i should of hit 16.25 times by now and it has not happend.

on working out that per invention costs are from 12.5 - 15 mil per invention

decryptors (engagement plan) 5-6 mil
bpc with 10 runs 5-6 mil
data cores around 2.5 mil

812.5 mil at 12.5 mil per run
975 mil at 15 mil per run

my results give me a bpc of a hulk with 3 runs on each at -3me 0pe worth btw 65 - 75mil

65 x 11 = 715 mil = a lose at 97.5 mil at 12.5 mil per run
65 x 11 = 715 mil = a lose at 260 mil at 15 mil per run
75 x 11 = 825 mil = a profit of 12.5 mil at 12.5 mil per run
75 x 11 = 825 mil = a lose of 150 mil at 15 mil per run

should be getting

65 x 16.25 = 1056.25 = a profit of 243.75 mil at 12.5 mil per run
65 x 16.25 = 1056.25 = a profit of 81.25 mil at 15 mil per run
75 x 16.25 = 1218.75 = a profit of 406.25 mil at 12.5 mil per run
75 x 16.25 = 1218.75 = a profit of 243.75 mil at 15 mil per run

so on my working out and as the average eve player with top invention skills how am i supposed to get ahead when the bpc i sell are the best for the ship being built as this is supposed to give you max profit. im finding myself at a lose with no place in eve as an inventor dose not pay.

5.25 short at 65 mil = 341.25 mil short nearly a PLEX
5.25 short at 75 mil = 393.75 mil short A PLEX

is this why im having to pay for eve now and have my alt account run out of game play as isk is hard to come by now as an inventor

Tau Cabalander
Posted - 2011.08.21 22:53:00 - [2]
 

Erm... don't invent things you know are not profitable after doing the math?

I also do T2 invention, and do quite well at it, so I know for a fact there are profits to be made.

I also get roughly the predicted success rate, even after a bad month where I had nearly 1 billion ISK in failures.


Ace Trader
Posted - 2011.08.21 22:57:00 - [3]
 

i also made loads of isk inventing hulk bpcs and had loads of orders but im not making now its just lose after lose.

i should not be losing at inventing as i am a top inventor with max skills for the inventions i do.

Ace Trader
Posted - 2011.08.21 23:01:00 - [4]
 

for instance my last 18 jobs i hit once should this be happening to a top inventor using correct everything

Loraine Gess
Posted - 2011.08.21 23:19:00 - [5]
 

Originally by: Ace Trader
i also made loads of isk inventing hulk bpcs and had loads of orders but im not making now its just lose after lose.

i should not be losing at inventing as i am a top inventor with max skills for the inventions i do.



This plus your name makes me wonder if you are a masterful troll, or a walking bag of irony.

Ace Trader
Posted - 2011.08.21 23:25:00 - [6]
 

this is a forum and i dont use it much. but am after info or advise as i posted the potiton i sent to ccp to see if anyone else had these problems, if you want to ***** about it or put dampners on me trying to get some help and advise go ahead as you are talking to a brick wall. so if you have somthing of use to me feel free to answer my post.

ive been playing eve since jan 2009 and am after any helpful information so i can decide wether to continue on this adventure or look for another game to put my time and effort in
thanks
andy

bushwacka
Posted - 2011.08.22 03:45:00 - [7]
 

i'd say 3/10 for your rather elaborate trolling attempt, but anyway, srs answer:

probability, statistics, does that mean anything to you? you whine about getting only 11 successful inventions when you should get 16,25 which means you kinda fail at understanding the whole thing.

for example, let's say you've got an invention chance of exactly 50%, so every second run should be a success - IN THEORY. in practice, out of 2 attempts one MAY work out, but you could also get 2x nothing or 2x T2 BPCs. small numbers mean nothing here - in order to come near your success probability, you'd have to perform hundreds, if not thousands of inventions.

Ace Trader
Posted - 2011.08.22 04:11:00 - [8]
 

i think i know how inventions work i was just posting my pertition like i said to see if i was the only one getting bad results as ive not been hitting since i got my skills to max

RaTTuS
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
Posted - 2011.08.22 11:07:00 - [9]
 

3 Characters base rate of 40%
Skills - Potential - Total - Current [since last patch]
4/4/4 - 48.26% - 50.79% - 47.22%
5/5/4 - 49.56% - 49.74% - 41.67%
5/5/5 - 50.40% - 48.06% - 44.32%

so yeah it's been nurfed Rolling Eyes [YMMV]

Valetta Vasquez
Posted - 2011.08.22 11:22:00 - [10]
 

Edited by: Valetta Vasquez on 22/08/2011 11:22:47
Damn these threads come around quick... I've had good success rates since the last patch, so that evens out the bad rates you're getting. Swings and roundabouts, peaks and troughs, *insert more generic 'highs and lows' saying here*...

Ace Trader
Posted - 2011.08.22 23:05:00 - [11]
 

well i just missed another 9 and works out i hit only 3 times in over 35 invention jobs and ive had a reply from ccp saying all is ok so enjoy eve as ive lost total intest now

Ace Trader
Posted - 2011.08.22 23:24:00 - [12]
 

so the counts going up 74 jobs and only 11 hits total, when i spotted a problem.

so another 112.5 mil down so thats another 10 days game play and my 1 day 1 hr waisted on inventions yet theres no problems and im bloody loaded too in this recestion,
yet still grinning (with gritted teeth) and loads of helpful info im getting too (not)

Tau Cabalander
Posted - 2011.08.22 23:57:00 - [13]
 

My unlucky streak was worse. It was nearly a month of constant invention with 8 slots before I had 1 success.

Stuff happens.

If you do 1 invention at a time, you can try filling all slots with invention. The odds are no better, but it is easier on the soul when you see at least one success once in a while.

Valetta Vasquez
Posted - 2011.08.23 11:25:00 - [14]
 

Edited by: Valetta Vasquez on 23/08/2011 11:26:23
I did 10 slots at once a few days ago, 5 succeeded. That was at a supposed 26%. The RNG is working against you at this time, it is, however, working with me.

There will be a time, at some point, where our situations will be switched. Its just a question of: "Can you hold out until such a time?"

Lando Tarsadan
Posted - 2011.08.23 13:19:00 - [15]
 

Yesterday i completed 10 jobs with 10 successes(never happened before for me). 2 days before that i had 10 jobs with 1 success(happens from time to time). in my long run of about 400 jobs id say im about the 45 % which i should be. So i dont think its bugged. flawed maybe but not a bug. at least not on the stuff i try to make.

Linda Shadowborn
Gallente
Dark Steel Industries
Posted - 2011.08.23 14:09:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: Ace Trader
so the counts going up 74 jobs and only 11 hits total, when i spotted a problem.

so another 112.5 mil down so thats another 10 days game play and my 1 day 1 hr waisted on inventions yet theres no problems and im bloody loaded too in this recestion,
yet still grinning (with gritted teeth) and loads of helpful info im getting too (not)


What do you want us to say other then, its chance based. So yeah you can have horribly bad runs and you can have good runs. *shrugs* it isnt bugged, its working just right. Currently imn below average myself in my runs so far this month. It happens, part of doing invention you just got to look at the BIG picture and if i check all my inventions ever so far.. im pretty much on the dot as far as the success rate goes to what is calculated.

So it isnt us being unhelpful its more.. what do you want us to say? You are having a bad streak, happens, suck it up or dont do invention if it bugs you so much.

Krixtal Icefluxor
Gallente
The Scope
Posted - 2011.08.23 15:46:00 - [17]
 


I have had 10 Badger >> Crane Inventions FAIL with 20% Chance Decryptors.

I have had 8 of 10 SUCCESS with 10 Badger >>> Crane Inventions with 20% Decryptors.

My old corp's CEO had 20 straight HULK failures in a row.


INVENTION IS CHANCE-BASED. Period. And. Final.

THAT is your only possible answer, and CCP will tell you the same thing. That's the risk in playing with Industry.

Next............................

Jdestars
Stars Research systems Incorporation
Posted - 2011.08.24 16:06:00 - [18]
 

Edited by: Jdestars on 24/08/2011 16:47:18
Subject already approached several times:
The rate of success which take into account the inventors is valid only for 1 run

rules of probality will be apply and distribution curve of successful try to

the base of T2 lottery : It is a system of try with throw-in thus the rate of success is lower than the rate of a single Try

dont forget this point : the rate of success try it only for limit to infinit and your try are in limited interval ....
and your wallet are limited too .. Welcome in the hell of the lottey of the inventions the worst thing) which CCP( was able to lay to replace the lottey ancient of bpo

You need do a reserve of the random (unpredictable) risks : apply a factor risk (calculation of average run and average engaged isk ) but ... with this .. the price of item bpc growing and market /trader are not ready for that

key of success : reading book
theory of games
The aversion at the risks
Law of bernouilli / binomial law
paradox of saint petersburg


my wish for christmass

I shall like that or study by the eve's economic team everything them effect of the implementation again mechanism which impacts on that this in particular for the production

Skippermonkey
Tactical Knightmare
Posted - 2011.08.24 16:18:00 - [19]
 

this is almost as funny as somebody on teamspeak last night claiming to have found a pattern in Somer Blink wins

Sewer Urchin
Posted - 2011.08.24 20:11:00 - [20]
 

Originally by: Skippermonkey
this is almost as funny as somebody on teamspeak last night claiming to have found a pattern in Somer Blink wins


Oh god here we go.

Lutz Major
Posted - 2011.08.25 06:51:00 - [21]
 

Jdestars, I've a hard time to figure out your post and force some sense out of it. What I understood is this:
Originally by: Jdestars

key of success : reading book
theory of games
The aversion at the risks
Law of bernouilli / binomial law
paradox of saint petersburg
and I'd like to say, that
  • reading book - is always a good choice
  • theory of games - is totally irrelevant for doing invention
  • On the Theory of Risk Aversion - is a too heavy on math, which everybody hates in EVE, but tl;dr: risk vs. reward, which everybody knows in EVE
  • Bernoulli's Law of Large Numbers - is the best advice, but only a few seem to understand
  • Sankt-Petersburg-Paradoxon - has again nothing to do with doing invention


Zelda Wei
Caldari
New Horizon Trade Exchange
Posted - 2011.08.25 07:58:00 - [22]
 

Originally by: Skippermonkey
this is almost as funny as somebody on teamspeak last night claiming to have found a pattern in Somer Blink wins


That's not hard it's a scam always won by their new alts.

Jdestars
Stars Research systems Incorporation
Posted - 2011.08.25 11:41:00 - [23]
 

Edited by: Jdestars on 25/08/2011 11:46:36
Originally by: Lutz Major
  • Sankt-Petersburg-Paradoxon - has again nothing to do with doing invention

  • [/list]

    its the base mechanisme to know with any form of lottery :
    Quote:

    To bring to light the paradoxical aspect of this problem, it is necessary to consider that, whatever is the initial stake, the expected value of earnings(gain) is positive, and even infinite, for the player. Nevertheless, every fellow sound in mind will refuse to play such a game(set,play) if the initial stake is too much raised(brought up). This behavior of irrational appearance is called the aversion at the risk. He(it) was formalized by the notion of function(office) of utility and gave birth to the theory of the decision. =>http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradoxe_de_Saint-P%C3%A9tersbourg



    so growing to infinit engaged isk (entropic function ) but limited isk resource wallet so you never can't recover your engaged isk

    invention is a lottery and theire no choice to resolve the gain isk with it .
    change base mechanical:
    -Pass to a system without throw-in ( surely not easy to do)
    -grow the Base chance for reduce effect probabilty (Load balancing to study by lead economic)

    or apply the risk recovery by calculation ( not easy to do by major player )
    and nevers forget this point
    the strategy of trader and producer are really different : The traders mess cost prices of construction of products only account the delta of gain between the purchase and the sale

    so The mourners still have of beautiful day has to come as long as the fairy CCP of the production bends over the coffin of T2ugh

    For my part I consider as stupid the system of invention based on scientist's random(unpredictable) discovery npc amnesic, the system is to be seen again(to be revised) in general

    Lutz Major
    Posted - 2011.08.25 12:07:00 - [24]
     

    Originally by: Jdestars
    Originally by: Lutz Major
  • Sankt-Petersburg-Paradoxon - has again nothing to do with doing invention


  • its the base mechanisme to know with any form of lottery ...
    Again no, because every invention attempt is independent from any other invention run.

    The Sankt-Petersburg-Paradoxon describes a theoretical infinite series of attempts where the pot is raised after each 'loss' and cashed out on every win.

    On a successfull invention I will always get one BPC. No more no less. Regardles of any other failures before me.

    Jdestars
    Stars Research systems Incorporation
    Posted - 2011.08.26 15:04:00 - [25]
     

    The paradox is applicable to the roulette table of casino for example or to the thrown(launched) of dices, and applicable the lottery of the inventions
    Everything depends how you put the statement of the problem in probability analyse:

    for me i do same invention in 11 ligne production and each line have a "infinit" run ( limited to a max time game ...)
    same item invention with same parameters ( datacore, decryptor )so have 11 serie of an infinit product

    if you check the http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Invention
    you find this point
    Quote:

    Please note: Finally, keep in mind that having a 1 in 4 chance of successfully inventing a T2 BPC is NOT the same as being guaranteed a T2 BPC every four attempts! A 25% chance of success means that you still have almost a 32% chance of failing all four times you try to invent (and a 42% chance of succeeding once, a 21% chance of succeeding twice, a 5% chance of succeeding three times, and less than 1% chance of succeeding four times). Over an increasing number of attempts, you will get an average of 1 T2 BPC for every four T1 BPCs; it just seldom seems that way, when using up valuable decryptors and named modules and failing repeatedly.


    and if you calculate the distribution curve of function you find with the contributor said that .

    and for exemple the average Succesfull invention are almost 10.5 try for an AS with base chance of 40% ...

    cost being entropique, we cannot eliminate definitively the risk of the inventions, the just man to reduce it even by funding the random risk

    Best fort CCP can do it,its to pay a study by a statistical department of a university for example before setting up mechanisms in the unpredictable effect .. yes Eve is definitively Real...Wink



    Lutz Major
    Posted - 2011.08.27 10:25:00 - [26]
     

    Originally by: Jdestars
    The paradox is applicable to the roulette table of casino for example or to the thrown(launched) of dices, and applicable the lottery of the inventions
    You either don't understand the paradoxon or you do not understand how inventions work ...

    A TL;DR version of the St. Petersburg Paradoxon is: To start a (fair!) coin flip game, I have to pay a fee. The pot starts with 1 token. Everytime I loose on a flip, the pot is doubled. When I win the flip, I get the pot.
    In theory it would be possible to have infinite coin flips (because I could loose every single one) and thus generating an infinite large pot.

    The problem with this game is the entrance fee: If the player could win an infinite pot, the casino would have to raise the fee to infinity to pay him out.

    In practice, the chance to loose 10 consecutive coin flips in a row is 1 / 2^10 = 1 / 1024 = 0.097% - far from being impossible but very unlikly.

    So as example, I enter the game and pay two tokens as fee. The pot starts with one token. I flip and
    1.loose - pot is doubled: 2 tokens
    2.loose - pot is doubled: 4 tokens
    3.loose - pot is doubled: 8 tokens
    4.win - ending the game and getting 8 tokens (= 2^n-1 = 2^(4-1)). Winning on the 4th flip is a probability of 1 / 2^4 = 6.25%


    Inventions on the other hand work also chance based and let's assume you have also a 50% chance (through skills and/or the use of an base item and/or decyptors) to successfully create a T2 bpc:

    1. invention - 500k costs: fail
    2. invention - 500k costs: fail
    3. invention - 500k costs: fail
    4. invention - 500k costs: success

    So I spend 2 millions and got a BPC which is worth 1 million (because the market says so).


    Combining both the paradoxon and invention with the examples above would mean: I pay 2M for the invention process to start. I fail, fail, fail, succeed and getting T2 blueprints worth 8M - or eight BPCs from the invention example.

    So again ... NO! The St. Petersburg Paradoxon is NOT applicable on Inventions.



    On another note:
    Originally by: Jdestars
    Best fort CCP can do it,its to pay a study by a statistical department of a university for example before setting up mechanisms in the unpredictable effect .. yes Eve is definitively Real...Wink
    Huh?!

    Please look at the first diagram in this post. How is probability on large numbers unpredictable again?


     

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