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Furb Killer
Gallente
Posted - 2011.08.16 12:20:00 - [61]
 

China wants to have influence in africa, (and other parts of asia, but they can do that pretty well from mainland china). To do that you need to project power, carriers are still best ships for power projection.

Yes in an actual war between equal powers nukes could easily take them out, but if we are at the stage of nuking each other I think some carriers is the last thing anyone worries about that, with that logic you might as well limit your entire army to your nuclear forces.

And how would you see that little overwelming with drones part? Drones arent free to produce either, and I assume you then mean rather large drones with normal anti-ship missiles, guess with current technology how many would be taken out by the carriers fighters: many.
And if you mean some kind of close range eve like drone, CIWS likes to have a word with them.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.08.16 12:43:00 - [62]
 

I have this idea about swarms of football-sized drones with a grenade-sized shaped explosive charge attached Twisted Evil

stoicfaux
Gallente
Posted - 2011.08.16 14:11:00 - [63]
 

Originally by: Akita T
I have this idea about swarms of football-sized drones with a grenade-sized shaped explosive charge attached Twisted Evil


Three words: non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse.



Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.08.16 14:52:00 - [64]
 

Well, depends how well insulated the target is, what the effective range is, and how often it can be triggered - you can probably overwhelm the defenses with multiple waves.
Also, all hail mechanical backups - in case of electronics failure (mechanical device armed some time after launch) detected by, say, a mechanical rotation detector, a small flotation device deploys (swarm would have been flying very low to begin with) and small chemical rocket engine is ignited mechanically, with explosion triggered also mechanically.
Twisted Evil

Blacksquirrel
Posted - 2011.08.16 17:43:00 - [65]
 

Originally by: Akita T
I have this idea about swarms of football-sized drones with a grenade-sized shaped explosive charge attached Twisted Evil


Read wired for war someones already thought of that. Also darpa projects that research robotic swarm theory control. Or hell even MIT and CAL TECH i believe are messing with it.

Ademaro Imre
Caldari
Posted - 2011.08.16 18:06:00 - [66]
 

Edited by: Ademaro Imre on 16/08/2011 18:07:51

Originally by: Furb Killer
China wants to have influence in africa, (and other parts of asia, but they can do that pretty well from mainland china). To do that you need to project power, carriers are still best ships for power projection.


Never, never underestimate China's obsession with absorbing Taiwan. Anything that brings a strike force closer and quicker to Taiwan is in China's interests, even if those strike aircraft serve nothing more than meat shields to diminish Taiwan's air defense missile inventories. This aircraft carrier will never even try to compete with any of NATO's carriers, and France's carrier may even be better. As long as this aircraft carrier can deliver aircraft to Taiwan, and even land and refuel some of them, it serves its purpose.

Furb Killer
Gallente
Posted - 2011.08.16 18:55:00 - [67]
 

I considered Taiwan, but while I dont know the exact distance from mainland China, I expected fighters could easily reach it from the mainland. Sure you are a bit closer with a carrier, but they would probably be better off investing the money and manpower in more fighter planes and troop carriers than in a carrier.

digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.16 21:13:00 - [68]
 

Originally by: stoicfaux
Originally by: Akita T
I have this idea about swarms of football-sized drones with a grenade-sized shaped explosive charge attached Twisted Evil


Three words: non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse.






There's already technology available to sheild against EMP radiation, and one helicopter is already built with that kind of protection.....The europen Eurocopter(tiger), wich is basically the equivalent of the US apache longbow.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi_tE2YxDDY


I doubt that's the only piece of miitary equipement with EMP protection these days



digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.16 21:25:00 - [69]
 

To be honest, i find it histerical that according to a news article released today, the USA of all contries is questioning china for the reasons as to why it want's to have aircraft carriers, when the USA has 12 of them in service(i think) and builds a new one every 4 years, wich includes the new gerald ford class being built right now...


They're broke and living on credit from loans to keep the country running, have enough military assets to fight 2 wars at the same time, a policy that has been the norm since world war 2 ended btw, and carriers are for power projection overseas and not for the defence of the country itself anyhow, but are questioning china why they want carriers, wich at least in the case of china, they can easily afford them if they want to.


Double standard much?....

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.08.16 21:38:00 - [70]
 

Originally by: digitalwanderer
Double standard much?....

Let's just agree that posturing, double standards, hypocrisy and even outright lies are an integral part of all politics, let alone international politics, where it's usually much worse.
That's the game, that's how you play it, it's ugly, everybody knows it, nobody cares.

digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.16 22:27:00 - [71]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: digitalwanderer
Double standard much?....

Let's just agree that posturing, double standards, hypocrisy and even outright lies are an integral part of all politics, let alone international politics, where it's usually much worse.
That's the game, that's how you play it, it's ugly, everybody knows it, nobody cares.



I absolutely agree with you on all points, but sometimes you hear so much of that crap that there's only so much a person can tolerate, and i guess the limit varies from person to person...


The USA has to concentrate on somehow fixing their economy with it's debt levels simply spiraling out of control and that alone might take a decade or 2 to get it down to the levels it was in the late 1990's(8 trillion or so), and have to stop trying to be the world police.... They can't afford it anymore.

Culmen
Caldari
Culmenation
Posted - 2011.08.17 07:08:00 - [72]
 

Edited by: Culmen on 17/08/2011 07:13:59
Originally by: Ademaro Imre

Originally by: Furb Killer
China wants to have influence in africa, (and other parts of asia, but they can do that pretty well from mainland china). To do that you need to project power, carriers are still best ships for power projection.


Never, never underestimate China's obsession with absorbing Taiwan. Anything that brings a strike force closer and quicker to Taiwan is in China's interests, even if those strike aircraft serve nothing more than meat shields to diminish Taiwan's air defense missile inventories. This aircraft carrier will never even try to compete with any of NATO's carriers, and France's carrier may even be better. As long as this aircraft carrier can deliver aircraft to Taiwan, and even land and refuel some of them, it serves its purpose.


This really...

Every now and again a peen-waving contest will spring up the US will threaten to sail a carrier group down the Straits of Taiwan. Now the Chinese can threaten to sail a carrier group past Guam.
Of course neither side is going to actually do it, but its the thought that counts, that and the capability.

That being said, the more I think about it, the more I think the Chinese claiming it's for "Training and Research" might not actually be 100% standard military bull crap. This might actually in fact be training and research for the next generation of Chinese Carrier, presumably one they built them selves from scratch. They certainly have the resources and the facilities.

Jack Paladin
StarFleet Enterprises
BricK sQuAD.
Posted - 2011.08.17 11:18:00 - [73]
 

Edited by: Jack Paladin on 17/08/2011 11:18:13
Came here expecting epic spaceship made by China ... left disappointed.

Going to watch BSG o7

digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.17 14:47:00 - [74]
 

Originally by: Culmen


Never, never underestimate China's obsession with absorbing Taiwan. Anything that brings a strike force closer and quicker to Taiwan is in China's interests, even if those strike aircraft serve nothing more than meat shields to diminish Taiwan's air defense missile inventories. This aircraft carrier will never even try to compete with any of NATO's carriers, and France's carrier may even be better. As long as this aircraft carrier can deliver aircraft to Taiwan, and even land and refuel some of them, it serves its purpose.


This really...

Every now and again a peen-waving contest will spring up the US will threaten to sail a carrier group down the Straits of Taiwan. Now the Chinese can threaten to sail a carrier group past Guam.
Of course neither side is going to actually do it, but its the thought that counts, that and the capability.

That being said, the more I think about it, the more I think the Chinese claiming it's for "Training and Research" might not actually be 100% standard military bull crap. This might actually in fact be training and research for the next generation of Chinese Carrier, presumably one they built them selves from scratch. They certainly have the resources and the facilities.



China is already building it's own aircraft carrier from what it learned from the russian kiev class that's been recently refurbished and in testing, and the general idea is that they want at least 3 aircraft carriers within the next 10 years....First new chinese built carrier comes out of the oven in 2015 it seems...


India is doing the same as well(3 aircraft carriers) and so is japan with 3 carriers of it's own too, and in both these cases, all of them operational in the next decade give or take a few years, so there's a definite push to secure resources and/or assets within the indian and china sea, for wich carriers are ideally suited for.

Toshiro GreyHawk
Posted - 2011.08.18 19:45:00 - [75]
 


The Kiev Class are even worse than this one.

While also better than nothing at all - the real value of all these ships to the PRC is in providing training and experience with Carrier operations. If China ever gets serious about having a Blue Water Navy ... they'll build something better.



And yeah - as I mentioned in my first post on this - the PRC really does have a blind spot when it comes to Taiwan. They can get really pig headed about things sometimes and anyone who thinks they wouldn't go to war over Taiwan is seriously underestimating their stupidity.

Fortunately those on Taiwan who were talking about making their defacto independence from the mainland official ... have stopped talking about that. THEY understand just how stupid the PRC could be about something like that and can see the wisdom of not provoking them into doing something terribly stupid.


.

digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.19 12:14:00 - [76]
 

Originally by: Toshiro GreyHawk

The Kiev Class are even worse than this one.

While also better than nothing at all - the real value of all these ships to the PRC is in providing training and experience with Carrier operations. If China ever gets serious about having a Blue Water Navy ... they'll build something better.





The home built ones for both india and china are in the 65 000 ton class weight wise, and similar in design to the new british queen elizabeth class, wich can carry around 60~70 planes/helicopters and are large enough for EC-2 type recon planes.


While not as large as the nimitz class or the upcoming gerald ford class, wich are 100 000 tons and can carry closer to 100 planes/ helicopters, they're still much better than the Kiev class, wich isn't a pure aircraft carrier, but more like a cruiser with a short landing strip and carrying 30 aircraft at most...


Link to the queen elizabeth class.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIEQgBKXkME

Riedle
Minmatar
Paradox Collective
Posted - 2011.08.19 13:56:00 - [77]
 

I donít think China has global power projection ambitions tbh.
They are concerned with Taiwan and would like to see it mollified and a defacto puppet if not outright annexed but beyond that their ambitions would be to check US power in the Pacific around China but thatís about it. The only other reason for them to have a large blue water navy that could challenge the USís is to maintain order on the global oceans to keep the sea lanes open for people to but stuff they make. The US already does this so unless the USA dramatically shrinks itís naval forces there will be no need for China to do so.

Another thing to remember is that this carrier has next to no capabilities. It is not there for that it is there so they get experience operating a carrier group. The USA and UK have intergenerational experience operating CV battle groups and that is not something that you can learn from copying stolen technology. It will take multiple decades for China or anyone else to even come close to matching the USAís capability for this reason alone which is also why no one is really going to bother too much at that scale.

stoicfaux
Gallente
Posted - 2011.08.19 13:59:00 - [78]
 

Originally by: Toshiro GreyHawk

While also better than nothing at all - the real value of all these ships to the PRC is in providing training and experience with Carrier operations. If China ever gets serious about having a Blue Water Navy ... they'll build something better.



Nah, the real value is re-creating a Cold War era build-up mentality in the US to get the US to borrow more money thus giving China the opportunity to invest in more US treasury bonds.

US military: "We have a carrier gap with China!"
US Citizens: "Oh noes! Our e-peen!"
US Congress: "Oh noes! Quick! To the Emergency Funding Bill!"


Riedle
Minmatar
Paradox Collective
Posted - 2011.08.19 14:22:00 - [79]
 

Edited by: Riedle on 19/08/2011 14:24:34
Originally by: stoicfaux
Originally by: Toshiro GreyHawk

While also better than nothing at all - the real value of all these ships to the PRC is in providing training and experience with Carrier operations. If China ever gets serious about having a Blue Water Navy ... they'll build something better.



Nah, the real value is re-creating a Cold War era build-up mentality in the US to get the US to borrow more money thus giving China the opportunity to invest in more US treasury bonds.

US military: "We have a carrier gap with China!"
US Citizens: "Oh noes! Our e-peen!"
US Congress: "Oh noes! Quick! To the Emergency Funding Bill!"




I disagree. The main reason that the PRC is such a rampant buyer of US treasuries is to keep their currency artifically low which they need to do so they can keep their export's competitively priced on the world market.

Once Chinaís middle class really gets growing and consuming there is going to be an insatiable upward pressure on wages and sooner than later China is not going to be able to compete on price alone. Already there are more competitively priced jurisdictions for manufacturing such as Malaysia and Indonesia.

China will have to go up the value chain in manufacturing or risk stagnating and becoming uncompetitive. So far China has not shown much progress in this area, especially in the area of innovation. This is one of Chinaís biggest risks going forward over the medium term. Remember, the US still exports almost as much by dollar value as China. This problem is often referred to as the Ďmiddle class trapí.

This could be more exacerbated for China in that they do not live in a free society currently and a more affluent middle class is going to start demanding more freedoms. As well, their looming demographic crisis is going to start rearing itís head in two areas Ė a huge surplus of males (never good for societal well being) and a rapidly aging population Ė one need look no further than Europe to see where that takes you.

digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.19 19:47:00 - [80]
 

Edited by: digitalwanderer on 19/08/2011 20:24:51
Originally by: Riedle
I donít think China has global power projection ambitions tbh.
They are concerned with Taiwan and would like to see it mollified and a defacto puppet if not outright annexed but beyond that their ambitions would be to check US power in the Pacific around China but thatís about it. The only other reason for them to have a large blue water navy that could challenge the USís is to maintain order on the global oceans to keep the sea lanes open for people to but stuff they make. The US already does this so unless the USA dramatically shrinks itís naval forces there will be no need for China to do so.

Another thing to remember is that this carrier has next to no capabilities. It is not there for that it is there so they get experience operating a carrier group. The USA and UK have intergenerational experience operating CV battle groups and that is not something that you can learn from copying stolen technology. It will take multiple decades for China or anyone else to even come close to matching the USAís capability for this reason alone which is also why no one is really going to bother too much at that scale.




I don't think it's just taiwan though, since the fact remains that natural resources world wide are depleting faster than they are renewed, or that overall technology evolves to make those resources obsolete and of no real use(think oil as the main one here), so sooner or later the big boys are likely going to go at it no matter how much that scenario isn't their preferred option, so the question is when rather than if..


As for the aircraft training aspect, you're absolutely right that it takes a long time to train up effectively, but i wouldn't put it at multiple decades as the USA has a minimal carrier fleet when world war 2 broke out and by the 1960's were well trained in carrier warfare and their fleet had grown quite a bit by that point, including the first nuclear powered carrier, the entreprise wich even today is still in service but next to be decommisioned in 2012 or 2013 once the first geral ford class is built.

digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.19 20:08:00 - [81]
 

Edited by: digitalwanderer on 19/08/2011 20:12:09
Originally by: Riedle


I disagree. The main reason that the PRC is such a rampant buyer of US treasuries is to keep their currency artifically low which they need to do so they can keep their export's competitively priced on the world market.



Actually they're getting ****ed because the USA is printing so much money these days, that it's making the interest earned on those bonds worthless as the value of the US dollar dropped from where it was a few years ago when they bought the bonds originally...


Quote:

Once Chinaís middle class really gets growing and consuming there is going to be an insatiable upward pressure on wages and sooner than later China is not going to be able to compete on price alone. Already there are more competitively priced jurisdictions for manufacturing such as Malaysia and Indonesia.



True, that'll eventually happen but the question is when and it still might take another decade or 2 before china losses that competitive edge of prices, however what you state here isn't accurate at all..

Quote:
Remember, the US still exports almost as much by dollar value as China. This problem is often referred to as the Ďmiddle class trapí.


Curently, china has a trade surplus of almost 30 billion dollars a month on goods shipped to the USA, relative to what the USA ships to china so it adds up to over 300 billion a year....Basically china is bleeding the USA dry in money terms on trade.


Quote:

This could be more exacerbated for China in that they do not live in a free society currently and a more affluent middle class is going to start demanding more freedoms. As well, their looming demographic crisis is going to start rearing itís head in two areas Ė a huge surplus of males (never good for societal well being) and a rapidly aging population Ė one need look no further than Europe to see where that takes you.



The USA has been telling china to reform it's political system and take care of human rights abuses for a couple of decades now, to wich china doesn't even take it seriously anymore, otherwise they would have done it by now....


That's what happends when china is going to become the number 1 economy in the world within couple of years according to some economists, owns a fair amount of the US debt(at some 3.2 trillion dollars if we also include assets they own in the USA), has a growing conventional military and also has nuclear weapons, and overall, more money than they know what to do with(they spent 56 billion dollars rebuilding beijing for the 2008 olympicsShocked), so it's a nation one talks to very gently and politely to say the least...Razz


This isn't some middle eastern country you're trying to push around here...Twisted Evil

digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.19 20:23:00 - [82]
 

Edited by: digitalwanderer on 20/08/2011 11:15:12
Edited by: digitalwanderer on 19/08/2011 20:31:03
Originally by: stoicfaux
Originally by: Toshiro GreyHawk

While also better than nothing at all - the real value of all these ships to the PRC is in providing training and experience with Carrier operations. If China ever gets serious about having a Blue Water Navy ... they'll build something better.



Nah, the real value is re-creating a Cold War era build-up mentality in the US to get the US to borrow more money thus giving China the opportunity to invest in more US treasury bonds.

US military: "We have a carrier gap with China!"
US Citizens: "Oh noes! Our e-peen!"
US Congress: "Oh noes! Quick! To the Emergency Funding Bill!"





Even that they can't do to be honest, as i don't even want to imagine the interest being collected on the US natonal debt by those instituions and/or countries that loaned them the money or bought US bonds like china...


The goverment extended the borowing limit by another 2 trillion dollars in that last minute deal before the USA defaulted on it's loans right, and will hit that 16 trillion dollar limit by late 2012 or at best case scenaio, early 2013 right?


If the interest overall on that monumntal debt is only 5%, that's still 800 billion dollars a year the USA is paying and the debt amount never goes down.....It's like a credit card where you're paying the minimum amount, but the overall balance never drops...


Even if the interest of that debt is only 2.5%, it's still 400 billion a year, wich is 2/3rds of the total going for the US armed forces branch every year(army, navy, airforce combined).....Yup, it's getting out of control bigtime here with the USA haven't spent a lot more money in the last couple of decades than it's collecting thru taxes, and always asking for loans when it's in trouble....That won't work anymore with that monster Debt.


If the country keeps sinking into an ever larger debt ceiling, the interest on that debt eventually adds up to the largest slice of the yearly US federal budget, wich is usually around 2.2 trillion dollars in total collected taxes right now, and it's getting pretty hard to finance the 3 main branches( government, military and healthcare), while paying the current interest on that debt and somehow come out with a balanced budget that isn't in deficit, while not cutting dramatically into military or goverment or healthcare spending, while still seeing economic growth for the country when it hasn't yet recovered from the 2008 market crash and here we are almost in 2012...ugh

Headerman
Minmatar
Quovis
Shadow of xXDEATHXx
Posted - 2011.08.20 04:39:00 - [83]
 

Personally i think Project Pluto was the best idea ever

Riedle
Minmatar
Paradox Collective
Posted - 2011.08.20 14:10:00 - [84]
 


Quote:
I don't think it's just taiwan though, since the fact remains that natural resources world wide are depleting faster than they are renewed, or that overall technology evolves to make those resources obsolete and of no real use(think oil as the main one here), so sooner or later the big boys are likely going to go at it no matter how much that scenario isn't their preferred option, so the question is when rather than if..


'go at it'? You think the USA and China will get in a war? Not a likely scenario - thanks god. They are both nuclear armed nations so if they get in a hot war it is th end of the world as we know it. Far more likely China will want to project power off their coast into the south China Sea. Even if they wanted to challenge the USA's naval dominance it would take upwards of 40 years of determined effort and even then it would not be a guarantee. China knows this. They are more likely to be checked by India which in any case has a much better geo-political strategic argument for a larger navy than does China.

Quote:
As for the aircraft training aspect, you're absolutely right that it takes a long time to train up effectively, but i wouldn't put it at multiple decades as the USA has a minimal carrier fleet when world war 2 broke out and by the 1960's were well trained in carrier warfare and their fleet had grown quite a bit by that point, including the first nuclear powered carrier, the entreprise wich even today is still in service but next to be decommisioned in 2012 or 2013 once the first geral ford class is built.


The USA had WW2 and Korea etc etc to get real life expertise in carrier group doctrine. Something that China does not have and is not likely to get.
It's not just the tech, it's the doctrines.

Riedle
Minmatar
Paradox Collective
Posted - 2011.08.20 14:21:00 - [85]
 



Quote:
Actually they're getting ****ed because the USA is printing so much money these days, that it's making the interest earned on those bonds worthless as the value of the US dollar dropped from where it was a few years ago when they bought the bonds originally...


Nah, they are getting upset because the USA is going after a low dollar policy which forces the PRC to buy even more treasuries to keep their currency that much lower.


Quote:
True, that'll eventually happen but the question is when and it still might take another decade or 2 before china losses that competitive edge of prices, however what you state here isn't accurate at all..


It's already happening.

Quote:
Curently, china has a trade surplus of almost 30 billion dollars a month on goods shipped to the USA, relative to what the USA ships to china so it adds up to over 300 billion a year....Basically china is bleeding the USA dry in money terms on trade.


I never stated otherwise. I said that the USA exports almost as much goods that China does. It's just a fact. The USA is still a huge, huge exporter so I am unsure what you are saying what i said that wasn't 100% true.

see here for more
Quote:



Quote:
The USA has been telling china to reform it's political system and take care of human rights abuses for a couple of decades now, to wich china doesn't even take it seriously anymore, otherwise they would have done it by now....


And? It's going to be the Chinese that are telling the PRC to do it. Much more important and urgent problem for the PRC

Quote:
That's what happends when china is going to become the number 1 economy in the world within couple of years according to some economists,


They are going to be the largest economy, not the number one economy. China has 1.3 billion people. Their GDP per capita will still be below that of western countries for decades to come. Much of their population still lives in abject poverty and will for some time. It has been imporving rapidly though thanks to China opening up their trade policies started by Deng Xi Ping in the 1980's.

quote]owns a fair amount of the US debt(at some 3.2 trillion dollars if we also include assets they own in the USA),


Yes, US debt is still the safest investment in the world.

Quote:
has a growing conventional military and also has nuclear weapons, and overall, more money than they know what to do with(they spent 56 billion dollars rebuilding beijing for the 2008 olympicsShocked), so it's a nation one talks to very gently and politely to say the least...Razz


China's infrastructure alone is going to require trillions to bring it up to the standards that it will need. China is facing a lot of challenges.

Quote:
This isn't some middle eastern country you're trying to push around here...Twisted Evil


Not getting the reference.

Riedle
Minmatar
Paradox Collective
Posted - 2011.08.20 14:26:00 - [86]
 

Quote:

Even that they can't do to be honest, as i don't even want to imagine the interest being collected on the US natonal debt by those instituions and/or countries that loaned them the money or bought US bonds like china...
The goverment extended the borowing limit by another 2 trillion dollars in that last minute deal before the USA defaulted on it's loans right, and will hit that 16 trillion dollar limit by late 2012 or at best case scenaio, early 2013 right?


The Debt/GDp ratio of the USA is still below that of the EU overall. The EU is the one in the real trouble it's just that in the USA there is political resistance to going down the drain to the extent that most European countries are seemingly willing to do.

Quote:
If the interest overall on that monumntal debt is only 5%, that's still 800 billion dollars a year the USA is paying and the debt amount never goes down.....It's like a credit card where you're paying the minimum amount, but the overall balance never drops...


5%? Try less than 1%
But I agree in that all western countries need to get their debt in order.
my country is the best of the lot though so that helps some. :)

Quote:
Even if the interest of that debt is only 2.5%, it's still 400 billion a year, wich is 2/3rds of the total going for the US armed forces branch every year(army, navy, airforce combined).....Yup, it's getting out of control bigtime here with the USA haven't spent a lot more money in the last couple of decades than it's collecting thru taxes, and always asking for loans when it's in trouble....That won't work anymore with that monster Debt.


The USA needs to dramitacally decrese spending and do tax reform as well.

Quote:
If the country keeps sinking into an ever larger debt ceiling, the interest on that debt eventually adds up to the largest slice of the yearly US federal budget, wich is usually around 2.2 trillion dollars in total collected taxes right now, and it's getting pretty hard to finance the 3 main branches( government, military and healthcare), while paying the current interest on that debt and somehow come out with a balanced budget that isn't in deficit, while not cutting dramatically into military or goverment or healthcare spending, while still seeing economic growth for the country when it hasn't yet recovered from the 2008 market crash and here we are almost in 2012...ugh


And you haven't even mentioned the unfunded liability of medicare, pensions, social security etc etc which makes the main debt look like an easy problem to solve in comparison

digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.20 15:12:00 - [87]
 

Edited by: digitalwanderer on 20/08/2011 16:09:54
Originally by: Riedle



'go at it'? You think the USA and China will get in a war? Not a likely scenario - thanks god. They are both nuclear armed nations so if they get in a hot war it is th end of the world as we know it. Far more likely China will want to project power off their coast into the south China Sea. Even if they wanted to challenge the USA's naval dominance it would take upwards of 40 years of determined effort and even then it would not be a guarantee. China knows this. They are more likely to be checked by India which in any case has a much better geo-political strategic argument for a larger navy than does China.



Well, it all comes down to available resources and we only live in one planet with finite resources, and the population keeps growing and with it, the need for food, shelter, schools, homes, transporation, jobs and more ... The requirements just keeps getting bigger and bigger as the years go by.


Add that aicraft carriers have a usefull life of at least 30~40 years between maintenance and scheduled refits, and it's an investment for the long term and something used not for the defence of the country in question but power projection overseas for whatever situation may happen...They want to be ready and have options if/when the situation calls for it.

Quote:


The USA had WW2 and Korea etc etc to get real life expertise in carrier group doctrine. Something that China does not have and is not likely to get.
It's not just the tech, it's the doctrines.



True,there is the constant training aspect to consider, but doubt that china is going to build them and just let them stay docked in port without constant exercises happening even in times of peace...Wink

digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.20 15:43:00 - [88]
 

Edited by: digitalwanderer on 20/08/2011 16:07:16
Originally by: Riedle


Nah, they are getting upset because the USA is going after a low dollar policy which forces the PRC to buy even more treasuries to keep their currency that much lower.


Imagine if you will if china then cashed in their existing treasuries and liquidated all assets they have in the usa?.....I don't want to think what would happen in the USA to be honest..Wink



Quote:

It's already happening.



Too slowly to be of any use in the next few years, that's my point....The average chinese worker does 60 hours a week(sometimes more),even lives and sleeps in those city factories because their homes are too far away to go back and forth every day, and makes about 70$ a week,wich is less than someone in the US does in a day and that's working a pretty ****ty job at pratically minimum wage, so before that chinese worker earns 400~500$ a week, we've got a long way to go here...Laughing


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I never stated otherwise. I said that the USA exports almost as much goods that China does. It's just a fact. The USA is still a huge, huge exporter so I am unsure what you are saying what i said that wasn't 100% true.

see here for more




Not disagreeing with you either, just stating the trade between china and the USA specifically where there's a huge surplus going towards china in this case, and china isn't in the economic deep **** that the USA is on both the deficit on a yearly basis or the overall debt in total, wich is aproaching the USA's GDP level(gross domestic product).



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And? It's going to be the Chinese that are telling the PRC to do it. Much more important and urgent problem for the PRC


You remember what happened in 1989 in tienamen square right with the civilians(mostly students if i'm nt mistaken)....Do i need to say more?



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They are going to be the largest economy, not the number one economy. China has 1.3 billion people. Their GDP per capita will still be below that of western countries for decades to come. Much of their population still lives in abject poverty and will for some time. It has been imporving rapidly though thanks to China opening up their trade policies started by Deng Xi Ping in the 1980's.



So now were using the actual population of the country as a significant metric here?....What matters is the overall GDP and ho much the country exports as a whole, how balanced their budget is, what is the average yearly economic growth(even now it's still at 10%) and it's overall debt levels, and on all those fronts, it's got the USA beat cold...


So using the GDP per capita is pretty inacurate to be honest.


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Yes, US debt is still the safest investment in the world.



China has already cashed in 800 billion of it's USA bonds in the past few years precisely because of the lack of confidence in how the USA is dealing with it's financial issues right now, and the public laundry of seeing both democrats and republicans not being able to negotiate a deal, until the last few days before the country went into default on it's current obligations isn't exactly confidence inspiring to investors....Safe investment you say?..Wink

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China's infrastructure alone is going to require trillions to bring it up to the standards that it will need. China is facing a lot of challenges.


True, but the difference is, it has the money for it...Razz

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Not getting the reference.


Irak wich now that mention it, the war there has cost nearly 1.5 trillion dollars, nearly 6000 US military deaths and over 30 000 wounded, even after 10 years of being in that mess, it remains to be seen if the country falls apart once the rest of the US forces leave the country...


I could also add afghanistan to that list and the brewing issue in iran with it's nuclear program, and these all countries with tons of oil, imagine that...Razz

digitalwanderer
Gallente
DF0 incorporated
Posted - 2011.08.20 16:06:00 - [89]
 

Edited by: digitalwanderer on 20/08/2011 16:13:39
Originally by: Riedle


5%? Try less than 1%
But I agree in that all western countries need to get their debt in order.
my country is the best of the lot though so that helps some. :)



Even at 1%, the interest is still 200 billion dollars a year, so it's not chump change no matter how low the interest rate is anymore, and assuming it's that "low", it's still about 10% of the yearly federal budget just on interest charges and the overall debt never gets smaller, so cough up another 200 billion next year, and the year after that too, and so on.


One can do a lot of stuff with 200 billion in funding job creation(as an example),rather than paying it in interest charges...




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And you haven't even mentioned the unfunded liability of medicare, pensions, social security etc etc which makes the main debt look like an easy problem to solve in comparison



That particular problem i never understood why it's so difficult for people to comprehend to be honest....It's a known fact proven by many studies done on the subject that people are generally living longer, both by living a more healthy lifestyle and medical improvements in terms of treatments and cures for certain conditions.


So given the above, it's kinda normal that people are going to collect on their pensions for a longer period of time, and given their age, also visit hopitals more often for whatever they may need in medical assistance, and the same for any and all social services, so what do you suggest we do to solve this comes down to a couple of really unpopular choices:


Either increase the age of retirement as far as collecting your full pension, so that the person in question works several more years while continuing to deduct taxes towards their retirement, a strategy used in many countries....Even where i am in canada, the retirement age went from 63 years to 67 years over the past 20 years, and i have no doubt it'll keep going up..


Or the more extreme option, you work all your life and pay taxes and so forth and now that you've hit retirement age and it imposes a lifestyle change since you're not earning as much money,you're paying less taxes and generally speaking, buying less items, go kill yourself since you've done your job and the goverment isn't interested in paying your pension for the next 20~30 years, or your medical costs either for that matter....Very Happy

Riedle
Minmatar
Paradox Collective
Posted - 2011.08.20 23:28:00 - [90]
 

Quote:
Imagine if you will if china then cashed in their existing treasuries and liquidated all assets they have in the usa?.....I don't want to think what would happen in the USA to be honest..


that would hurt themselves just as much as it would hurt the USA so it's non-sensicle

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Too slowly to be of any use in the next few years, that's my point....The average chinese worker does 60 hours a week(sometimes more),even lives and sleeps in those city factories because their homes are too far away to go back and forth every day, and makes about 70$ a week,wich is less than someone in the US does in a day and that's working a pretty ****ty job at pratically minimum wage, so before that chinese worker earns 400~500$ a week, we've got a long way to go here...Laughing


Just relaying what the news is.

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Not disagreeing with you either, just stating the trade between china and the USA specifically where there's a huge surplus going towards china in this case, and china isn't in the economic deep **** that the USA is on both the deficit on a yearly basis or the overall debt in total, wich is aproaching the USA's GDP level(gross domestic product).


great - then we are in agreement. lol no idea what this added to the conversation. I'm taken it as obvious knowledge that the USA has a large trade deficit with China. Welcome to 1988.

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You remember what happened in 1989 in tienamen square right with the civilians(mostly students if i'm nt mistaken)....Do i need to say more?


Yep, China will have less leverage to do that now that they are host to thousands of multinationals. Nothing chills the investment climate quicker than some state mass murder.

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So now were using the actual population of the country as a significant metric here?....What matters is the overall GDP and ho much the country exports as a whole, how balanced their budget is, what is the average yearly economic growth(even now it's still at 10%) and it's overall debt levels, and on all those fronts, it's got the USA beat cold...


Well yes of course you use GDP/per capita. Otherwise one would think that Luxemburg was about as prosperous as Zambia.

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So using the GDP per capita is pretty inacurate to be honest.


LOL, ok whatever you say. lols

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China has already cashed in 800 billion of it's USA bonds in the past few years precisely because of the lack of confidence in how the USA is dealing with it's financial issues right now, and the public laundry of seeing both democrats and republicans not being able to negotiate a deal, until the last few days before the country went into default on it's current obligations isn't exactly confidence inspiring to investors....Safe investment you say?..Wink


I said safest. And yes. Look what happens when investors the world over get spooked - they snap up US treasuries. It's just the facts. v0v

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Irak wich now that mention it, the war there has cost nearly 1.5 trillion dollars, nearly 6000 US military deaths and over 30 000 wounded, even after 10 years of being in that mess, it remains to be seen if the country falls apart once the rest of the US forces leave the country...


Well I am not American which is probably why I didn't get the reference. 6000 includes Afghanistan fyi.
I thought almost all US forces had left Iraq already?

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I could also add afghanistan to that list


You did you just didn't realize it.


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