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Jerimiah Zen
Posted - 2011.08.09 02:13:00 - [1]
 

Edited by: Jerimiah Zen on 09/08/2011 02:19:41

I'm curious as to what everyone's success rate on inventing a Hulk bpc.

Firstly I know there are many varibles but out of curiousity I'm asking. So....

Thus far with 19+ million skill points in science alone I average 3 successful hulk inventions out of 10.

^^ Normal or no?^^

Suggestions, not asking for your secrets but would love it if anyone offered any useful advice.

Licinius CrassusFilius
Space Construction and Research
Posted - 2011.08.09 02:44:00 - [2]
 

http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/invention_chance.php

With all skills at 5 and no decryptor your chance is 25%, so you are doing ok.

Jerimiah Zen
Posted - 2011.08.09 02:51:00 - [3]
 

Thanks for your response and the link. I feel better now. =)

Licinius CrassusFilius
Space Construction and Research
Posted - 2011.08.09 03:06:00 - [4]
 

No problems. It is the run of 10 - 15 jobs with zero success that gets you down.

Jerimiah Zen
Posted - 2011.08.09 03:19:00 - [5]
 

Originally by: Licinius CrassusFilius
No problems. It is the run of 10 - 15 jobs with zero success that gets you down.


Ouch! But I have been at the 10/0 before. Mad

Melchiades Seti
Posted - 2011.08.09 20:04:00 - [6]
 

This sort of message comes along often, and I sometimes wonder if the odds they tell us are correct. There has to be something no one knows about, because when things go wrong the odds of it happening get rather astronimcal.

I make drones mostly, and from the skill percentages I should be at around 52%. I've kept very good records and in the beginning it was close, averaging 40-55% on every 20. Lately, and for some time now my numbers are below 15%, and I've had a few batches that were 0-5%. The odds of that happening should be astronimcal, and should prove it is possible for someone to be getting 95% success. I've never heard of that. I wonder if there isn't some other factor involved. There has to be. With all my effort, lately I have been losing money.

mxzf
Minmatar
Shovel Bros
Posted - 2011.08.09 20:29:00 - [7]
 

Originally by: Melchiades Seti
This sort of message comes along often, and I sometimes wonder if the odds they tell us are correct. There has to be something no one knows about, because when things go wrong the odds of it happening get rather astronimcal.

I make drones mostly, and from the skill percentages I should be at around 52%. I've kept very good records and in the beginning it was close, averaging 40-55% on every 20. Lately, and for some time now my numbers are below 15%, and I've had a few batches that were 0-5%. The odds of that happening should be astronimcal, and should prove it is possible for someone to be getting 95% success. I've never heard of that. I wonder if there isn't some other factor involved. There has to be. With all my effort, lately I have been losing money.


Well, if someone was getting 95% I doubt we'd be seeing them on the forums complaining that "invention is broken", lol. You do have a valid point though.

Linda Shadowborn
Gallente
Dark Steel Industries
Posted - 2011.08.09 21:16:00 - [8]
 

Thing is, people focus more on the bad streaks and hardly notice when they are having good ones. And as said it is mostly people who feel something is bad for them that tend to post on forums, not the ones that go "omg i got 20 golems in a row!"

Tau Cabalander
Posted - 2011.08.09 21:46:00 - [9]
 

I do a lot of invention. My longest invention failure streak to date cost me about 1 billion ISK, but I kept at it.

My overall invention success rates have been what Chruker's calculator predicts.


Valetta Vasquez
Posted - 2011.08.10 08:06:00 - [10]
 

Originally by: Jerimiah Zen
Originally by: Licinius CrassusFilius
No problems. It is the run of 10 - 15 jobs with zero success that gets you down.
Ouch! But I have been at the 10/0 before. Mad

18 fails in a row all with decryptors... that was painful, especially seeing as it was my the 18 runs after my first ever success for invention. I nearly gave up, but like what has been said, just keep going. A month later I got 3/6 successes with 26%, that for me was a good streak.

Lutz Major
Posted - 2011.08.10 09:34:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: Jerimiah Zen
Edited by: Jerimiah Zen on 09/08/2011 02:19:41

I'm curious as to what everyone's success rate on inventing a Hulk bpc.

Firstly I know there are many varibles but out of curiousity I'm asking. So....

Thus far with 19+ million skill points in science alone I average 3 successful hulk inventions out of 10.

^^ Normal or no?^^

Suggestions, not asking for your secrets but would love it if anyone offered any useful advice.
I had 60 failures out of 200 tries, do you hear me complain?

Invention is chance based, 19M+ skill points or not.
3 out of 10 is already a very good performance, stop whining!

Meissa Anunthiel
Redshift Industrial
Rooks and Kings
Posted - 2011.08.10 10:35:00 - [12]
 

that's randomness for you.

The observed values only reach their theoretical values when the number of attempts reaches infinity.

I've kept track of the success rates over 10,000+ attempts and the values do not deviate abnormally from the expectations over time. I've had strings of 50 failures in a row on 50%+ success chance jobs, but I've had the opposite as well.


 

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