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blankseplocked First attempt at invention failed. I'm sad now :(
 
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Freelance Swan
Posted - 2011.07.30 17:16:00 - [1]
 

Hello,
today i tried my first invention job, and it failed.
I'm here just to share my experience and get your thoughts about my attempt, maybe i did something wrong that i could improve.

My goal was the Invulnerability Field so i bought the BPO, i researched it to Material Level 100 and Productivity Level 120
and then i made some copies. It took a while since i don't have a POS and i used empire slots, even though i used lowsec ones when possible.

Anyway, i then bought:

1x Esoteric Data Interface
2x Hydromagnetic Physics Datacores
2x Quantum Physics Datacores
1x Invulnerability Field I

My skills are:

Caldari Encryption Methods V
Hydromagnetic Physics V
Quantum Physics V

So, was it just bad luck or am i missing something?
The message i got when i delivered the job was kinda sad, prompting me that 'i understood the mechanics of invention but i didn't get even close to a successful attempt'.

Well, thanks for reading and for anything you'll share.
Cheers.

Tau Cabalander
Posted - 2011.07.30 17:19:00 - [2]
 


Lutz Major
Posted - 2011.07.30 17:47:00 - [3]
 

You did ONE (!) single invention run?!?
Kudos to your positive thinking!


Also, T1 BPCs for invention don't need to be researched!


Freelance Swan
Posted - 2011.07.30 17:51:00 - [4]
 

Uhm, how many runs should i do?
And why the blueprint don't have to be researched? I thought that a better t1BP should give better invented t2BP, is that false?

Anyway, crap, the t1 invul is useless :\
I'm going to try again with a v-m15 and a prototype diagram.

Thanks for the info and for the link ;)

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.07.30 18:32:00 - [5]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 30/07/2011 18:34:26
Originally by: Freelance Swan
Uhm, how many runs should i do?

You could do 10 more runs and still get nothing.
Or you could get 10 successes instead.
It's random.
Granted, the chance of that happening is not very high (you usually get a mix of successes and failures), but neither of those above two examples are impossible. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible.
Only in the very long run (hundreds, maybe thousands of jobs) do you actually end up almost certainly getting an actual success rate close to the theoretical one.

P.S. Also, for modules, don't bother with meta items nor decryptors. Just invent without using either. You're better off that way in the long run. The only exception would be if the meta-item is very, VERY cheap (like, less than a datacore or thereabouts), in which case, sure, why not, use it.

Freelance Swan
Posted - 2011.07.30 18:39:00 - [6]
 

Akita \o/

Thank you very much, i'll keep that in mind.
I started the wrong way then, but without an item nor decryptor the chance is 50.40% is that normal?

Thanks.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.07.30 18:46:00 - [7]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 30/07/2011 18:48:54

50% is pretty damn good.
Also, remember to use max-run T1 BPCs. That way you get 10-run T2 BPCs.

P.S. T1 BPC ME/PE levels sadly don't matter for invention. You'll always be getting -4/-4 T2 BPCs without a decryptor. But for a lot or items, some (or all) of the T2 materials are "extra" materials, so not affected by ME levels anyway.

Snodgey2004
Fortune.
Posted - 2011.07.30 20:53:00 - [8]
 

The biggest surprise reading the OP was that he used a station slot in a npc station, I thought you could only invent at a POS or an outpost or is that some other research area like subsytem manufacturing ?

Tau Cabalander
Posted - 2011.07.30 21:55:00 - [9]
 

Edited by: Tau Cabalander on 30/07/2011 21:57:33
Originally by: Snodgey2004
The biggest surprise reading the OP was that he used a station slot in a npc station, I thought you could only invent at a POS or an outpost or is that some other research area like subsytem manufacturing ?

No, there are tons of free invention slots in hisec. Howver, you will be hard pressed to find a copy slot in hisec without a long queue.

I think you mean Reverse Engineering artifacts for T3 stuff.

Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
Posted - 2011.07.30 21:56:00 - [10]
 

Edited by: Breaker77 on 30/07/2011 21:56:52
Originally by: Snodgey2004
The biggest surprise reading the OP was that he used a station slot in a npc station, I thought you could only invent at a POS or an outpost or is that some other research area like subsytem manufacturing ?


You can do ME, PE, Copy, and Invention at an NPC station if it has those services available.

Freelance Swan
Posted - 2011.08.01 12:41:00 - [11]
 

Quick update: I just wanted to let you know that i made 19 more invention jobs and i had 13 successful runs :)
So in total i made 20 inventions and 13 succeded, with a nice 65% of success :)

Thanks for the useful info, i appreciate them a lot.

clixor
Celluloid Gurus
Posted - 2011.08.01 13:23:00 - [12]
 

Originally by: Freelance Swan
Quick update: I just wanted to let you know that i made 19 more invention jobs and i had 13 successful runs :)
So in total i made 20 inventions and 13 succeded, with a nice 65% of success :)

Thanks for the useful info, i appreciate them a lot.


wait until the next expansion followed by the standard invention nerf Wink

Freelance Swan
Posted - 2011.08.02 06:54:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: clixor
wait until the next expansion followed by the standard invention nerf Wink


What? ugh

Franny
Mentis Seorsum
Posted - 2011.08.02 07:00:00 - [14]
 

Originally by: Freelance Swan
Originally by: clixor
wait until the next expansion followed by the standard invention nerf Wink


What? ugh

running gag
every time there is a patch(and even most weeks there isn't), there is someone complaining about a stealth nerf to invention success rate(this week it would be me if I followed the trend, I went 12/45 for example)

NYAN Cat
Posted - 2011.08.02 11:39:00 - [15]
 

im running ship inventions using 1 run BPC's

what are peoples opinions on decryptors, does the overall cost of each decryptor, factoring in expected failures make up for their use?

Could i save money by not using decryptors at all, saving the cost of not using them because of the many expected failures?

Does it make a difference whether you are inventing frigates or Battleships where decryptors are involved. i.e. Could it be worth their use for a BS but not for a frig for example?

Lutz Major
Posted - 2011.08.02 11:53:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: NYAN Cat
im running ship inventions using 1 run BPC's

what are peoples opinions on decryptors, does the overall cost of each decryptor, factoring in expected failures make up for their use?

Could i save money by not using decryptors at all, saving the cost of not using them because of the many expected failures?

Does it make a difference whether you are inventing frigates or Battleships where decryptors are involved. i.e. Could it be worth their use for a BS but not for a frig for example?
yes and no, for all three questions.

The correct answers depend heavily on prices and skills. YOU have to make the effort to compare, whether or not to use decryptors and more importantly which one.

One month it could be a +9 run decryptor for stealth bombers, the next month even no decryptor at all. Updating and forecasting prices is crucial, but can be very rewarding.

Skippermonkey
Tactical Knightmare
Posted - 2011.08.02 12:00:00 - [17]
 

Edited by: Skippermonkey on 02/08/2011 12:01:04
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: NYAN Cat
im running ship inventions using 1 run BPC's

what are peoples opinions on decryptors, does the overall cost of each decryptor, factoring in expected failures make up for their use?

Could i save money by not using decryptors at all, saving the cost of not using them because of the many expected failures?

Does it make a difference whether you are inventing frigates or Battleships where decryptors are involved. i.e. Could it be worth their use for a BS but not for a frig for example?
yes and no, for all three questions.

The correct answers depend heavily on prices and skills. YOU have to make the effort to compare, whether or not to use decryptors and more importantly which one.

One month it could be a +9 run decryptor for stealth bombers, the next month even no decryptor at all. Updating and forecasting prices is crucial, but can be very rewarding.


I know prices change etc, i was just asking if there was a general consensus that decryptors were worth the effort more in larger ships compared to smaller, as the price for a decryptor is the same whetehr you use it on a frigate or a battleship.

But if the answers i can expect are 'do the maths and work it out for yourself', then i neednt have asked in the first place

ugh

edit - posting with main pr0 moves

Lutz Major
Posted - 2011.08.02 13:00:00 - [18]
 

Invention plan for Hound in Jita (ISK 20,095,799.97/ISK 18,441,885.63):
DECRYPTOR | ... | INCOME / HOUR |
-----------------------------------------------------------------
None (-4/-4/1/49.56%) | ... | ISK 132,491.17 |
None (-4/-4/1/49.56%) | ... | ISK 123,685.78 |
Circuitry Schematics (-6/-3/9/29.74%) | ... | ISK 130,327.10 |
Circuitry Schematics (-6/-3/10/29.74%) | ... | ISK 148,608.95 |
Operation Handbook (-3/0/2/49.56%) | ... | ISK -200,475.48 |
Operation Handbook (-3/0/3/49.56%) | ... | ISK -5,270.54 |
Calibration Data (-1/-1/1/54.52%) | ... | ISK -228,803.81 |
Calibration Data (-1/-1/1/54.52%) | ... | ISK -238,102.13 |
Advanced Theories (-2/1/1/59.48%) | ... | ISK -738,893.17 |
Advanced Theories (-2/1/2/59.48%) | ... | ISK -363,148.00 |
Assembly Instructions (-5/-2/4/89.21%) | ... | ISK -482,396.42 |
Assembly Instructions (-5/-2/5/89.21%) | ... | ISK -320,295.50 |

Invention plan for Hound in Rens (ISK 19,104,022.49/ISK 16,836,363.66):
DECRYPTOR | ... | INCOME / HOUR |
-----------------------------------------------------------------
None (-4/-4/1/49.56%) | ... | ISK 370,009.91 |
None (-4/-4/1/49.56%) | ... | ISK 361,204.51 |
Circuitry Schematics (-6/-3/9/29.74%) | ... | ISK 809,286.42 |
Circuitry Schematics (-6/-3/10/29.74%) | ... | ISK 843,558.07 |
Operation Handbook (-3/0/2/49.56%) | ... | ISK 393,145.82 |
Operation Handbook (-3/0/3/49.56%) | ... | ISK 692,607.58 |
Calibration Data (-1/-1/1/54.52%) | ... | ISK 61,959.97 |
Calibration Data (-1/-1/1/54.52%) | ... | ISK 52,661.65 |
Advanced Theories (-2/1/1/59.48%) | ... | ISK -342,651.56 |
Advanced Theories (-2/1/2/59.48%) | ... | ISK 204,463.12 |
Assembly Instructions (-5/-2/4/89.21%) | ... | ISK 346,047.23 |
Assembly Instructions (-5/-2/5/89.21%) | ... | ISK 536,754.72 |


Invention plan for Golem in Jita (ISK 801,835,624.63/ISK 624,266,244.08):
DECRYPTOR | ... | INCOME / HOUR |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
None (-4/-4/1/24.36%) | ... | ISK -271,173.22 |
None (-4/-4/1/24.36%) | ... | ISK -279,631.00 |
Interface Alignment Chart (-6/-3/9/14.62%) | ... | ISK -1,559,541.10 |
Interface Alignment Chart (-6/-3/10/14.62%) | ... | ISK -1,605,774.97 |
User Manual (-3/0/2/24.36%) | ... | ISK 49,746.91 |
User Manual (-3/0/3/24.36%) | ... | ISK 155,275.83 |
Tuning Instructions (-1/-1/1/26.80%) | ... | ISK 310,479.97 |
Tuning Instructions (-1/-1/1/26.80%) | ... | ISK 301,433.48 |
Prototype Diagram (-2/1/1/29.24%) | ... | ISK 141,443.81 |
Prototype Diagram (-2/1/2/29.24%) | ... | ISK 540,292.80 |
Installation Guide (-5/-2/4/43.85%) | ... | ISK -1,247,611.36 |
Installation Guide (-5/-2/5/43.85%) | ... | ISK -1,278,814.99 |
to be continued ...

Lutz Major
Posted - 2011.08.02 13:05:00 - [19]
 

Invention plan for Golem in Dodixie (ISK 693,397,166.76/ISK 479,908,905.48):
DECRYPTOR | ... | INCOME / HOUR |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
None (-4/-4/1/24.36%) | ... | ISK -689,226.18 |
None (-4/-4/1/24.36%) | ... | ISK -697,683.96 |
Interface Alignment Chart (-6/-3/9/14.62%) | ... | ISK -2,641,550.67 |
Interface Alignment Chart (-6/-3/10/14.62%) | ... | ISK -2,726,670.90 |
User Manual (-3/0/2/24.36%) | ... | ISK -832,624.92 |
User Manual (-3/0/3/24.36%) | ... | ISK -995,445.46 |
Tuning Instructions (-1/-1/1/26.80%) | ... | ISK -282,503.10 |
Tuning Instructions (-1/-1/1/26.80%) | ... | ISK -291,549.59 |
Prototype Diagram (-2/1/1/29.24%) | ... | ISK -446,330.72 |
Prototype Diagram (-2/1/2/29.24%) | ... | ISK -468,228.02 |
Installation Guide (-5/-2/4/43.85%) | ... | ISK -2,559,812.19 |
Installation Guide (-5/-2/5/43.85%) | ... | ISK -2,674,593.03 |

Invention plan for Sleipnir in Jita (ISK 239,995,998.93/ISK 226,175,310.71):
DECRYPTOR | ... | INCOME / HOUR |
-----------------------------------------------------------------
None (-4/-4/1/24.78%) | ... | ISK -64,153.18 |
None (-4/-4/1/24.78%) | ... | ISK -74,412.29 |
Circuitry Schematics (-6/-3/9/14.87%) | ... | ISK -312,800.84 |
Circuitry Schematics (-6/-3/10/14.87%) | ... | ISK -313,807.95 |
Operation Handbook (-3/0/2/24.78%) | ... | ISK -50,286.00 |
Operation Handbook (-3/0/3/24.78%) | ... | ISK 88,008.80 |
Calibration Data (-1/-1/1/27.26%) | ... | ISK 21,221.10 |
Calibration Data (-1/-1/1/27.26%) | ... | ISK 10,165.50 |
Advanced Theories (-2/1/1/29.74%) | ... | ISK -243,223.70 |
Advanced Theories (-2/1/2/29.74%) | ... | ISK 64,925.82 |
Assembly Instructions (-5/-2/4/44.61%) | ... | ISK -423,806.64 |
Assembly Instructions (-5/-2/5/44.61%) | ... | ISK -358,695.72 |


Invention plan for Sleipnir in Rens (ISK 255,767,298.32/ISK 200,630,400.33):
DECRYPTOR | ... | INCOME / HOUR |
-----------------------------------------------------------------
None (-4/-4/1/24.78%) | ... | ISK 658,423.39 |
None (-4/-4/1/24.78%) | ... | ISK 648,164.28 |
Circuitry Schematics (-6/-3/9/14.87%) | ... | ISK 1,728,823.94 |
Circuitry Schematics (-6/-3/10/14.87%) | ... | ISK 1,795,601.21 |
Operation Handbook (-3/0/2/24.78%) | ... | ISK 1,371,090.21 |
Operation Handbook (-3/0/3/24.78%) | ... | ISK 1,914,173.67 |
Calibration Data (-1/-1/1/27.26%) | ... | ISK 756,483.76 |
Calibration Data (-1/-1/1/27.26%) | ... | ISK 745,428.16 |
Advanced Theories (-2/1/1/29.74%) | ... | ISK 687,351.73 |
Advanced Theories (-2/1/2/29.74%) | ... | ISK 1,595,248.19 |
Assembly Instructions (-5/-2/4/44.61%) | ... | ISK 1,907,362.89 |
Assembly Instructions (-5/-2/5/44.61%) | ... | ISK 2,102,722.55 |

It wasn't meant to tell you 'do your own math' (well it was a bit Very Happy), but as you can see, results differ sooo much, that it is impossible to give you a definitive answer.

Of course, larger ships have larger component requirements. So using ME reducing decryptors could be a benefit. But otherwise a higher run count could be better because you don't have to do more inventions ...

Krixtal Icefluxor
Gallente
The Scope
Posted - 2011.08.02 14:44:00 - [20]
 

4 weeks ago I had spent about 70 Mill ISK in 10 Decryptors and Datacores, Etc. for 10 Badger >> >> Crane Inventions.

Absolutely ALL 10 Failed !

So...............I try again, and get 6 of 10 with 3 Runs each for 18 Cranes.

Remember........Invention is CHANCE BASED.

You have absolutely no guarantees here at all. Just bear that in mind is all I have as advice.


Jdestars
Stars Research systems Incorporation
Posted - 2011.08.02 15:48:00 - [21]
 

maybe you dont know but in probability if you have 40% of chance its also mean infinit of fail - 0.4 of infint success ...
so you are not sure of success Series ..
you must use distribution curve for count it .... ( binomial law / Bernoulli ...)
in Evelopedia you read
Quote:

[Please note: Finally, keep in mind that having a 1 in 4 chance of successfully inventing a T2 BPC is NOT the same as being guaranteed a T2 BPC every four attempts! A 25% chance of success means that you still have almost a 32% chance of failing all four times you try to invent (and a 42% chance of succeeding once, a 21% chance of succeeding twice, a 5% chance of succeeding three times, and less than 1% chance of succeeding four times). Over an increasing number of attempts, you will get an average of 1 T2 BPC for every four T1 BPCs; it just seldom seems that way, when using up valuable decryptors and named modules and failing repeatedly.


so cost of 1run are easy to calculate but you need to apply a coef of risk on it ( not easy to calculate and you need to use statistic law) ..
i try to explain this since ... 2006 to noob inventor which ruin theire wallet and market quote ugh


Mortimer Civeri
Gallente
Federal Navy Academy
Posted - 2011.08.02 20:20:00 - [22]
 

Originally by: Jdestars
...cost of 1run are easy to calculate but you need to apply a coef of risk on it ( not easy to calculate and you need to use statistic law) ..
i try to explain this since ... 2006 to noob inventor which ruin theire wallet and market quote ugh




This is a gross simplification, but it will get you in the ballpark. Always be prepared for the next 20 or so invention jobs to fail, the law of independent trials will bite you.

Take the lowest sell price of the item you invent and set that as your upper limit.

Take all materials and costs for inventing, and divide by the chance of success. ( 50.4% chance of success = 0.504 / X. )

Add that to the cost of producing the item, and a retail markup for your time and profit margin.

If the result is below the upper limit set point, congratulations, you can successfully invent and produce profitable T2 items.

Jdestars
Stars Research systems Incorporation
Posted - 2011.08.02 21:43:00 - [23]
 

Quote:


This is a gross simplification, but it will get you in the ballpark. Always be prepared for the next 20 or so invention jobs to fail, the law of independent trials will bite you.



gross simplification = Name in real īto Parameters use in loan calculation by your IRl Bank tss ;) just one exemple

check
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradoxe_de_Saint-P%C3%A9tersbourg

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_de_Bernoulli

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_binomiale

and some other doc "aversion of risk" , theory of game ... ;)

an other way its calculation of expend invention during a referal period eg (10 years )
-you know how you can do a max invention during this period
-you can evaluat the growing cost of component if you had follow de price since many year
with the distribution curve you can evaluation the average success run
and so evaluat the cost whitch include the part of statistic risk ...

and you see that price of bpc AS cost X10 or more than you excepted


also ... accept your lottery risk

the only way in this lottery : CCP must be up the base Success ... if you dont want a bpc to 50-100m ...

Zifrian
Deep Space Innovations
Posted - 2011.08.03 02:39:00 - [24]
 

Edited by: Zifrian on 03/08/2011 02:41:57
Originally by: Skippermonkey
Edited by: Skippermonkey on 02/08/2011 12:01:04
Originally by: Lutz Major
Originally by: NYAN Cat
im running ship inventions using 1 run BPC's

what are peoples opinions on decryptors, does the overall cost of each decryptor, factoring in expected failures make up for their use?

Could i save money by not using decryptors at all, saving the cost of not using them because of the many expected failures?

Does it make a difference whether you are inventing frigates or Battleships where decryptors are involved. i.e. Could it be worth their use for a BS but not for a frig for example?
yes and no, for all three questions.

The correct answers depend heavily on prices and skills. YOU have to make the effort to compare, whether or not to use decryptors and more importantly which one.

One month it could be a +9 run decryptor for stealth bombers, the next month even no decryptor at all. Updating and forecasting prices is crucial, but can be very rewarding.


I know prices change etc, i was just asking if there was a general consensus that decryptors were worth the effort more in larger ships compared to smaller, as the price for a decryptor is the same whetehr you use it on a frigate or a battleship.

But if the answers i can expect are 'do the maths and work it out for yourself', then i neednt have asked in the first place

ugh

edit - posting with main pr0 moves


Lutz is correct. You really need to compare a lot of different items. That's why I wrote my program though, I don't like making spreadsheets all day long for the piles of BPO's I have. I want to see it quickly. Thread here if you are interested: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1559563


Freelance, you are on the right track. You'll be a pro in no time Smile

Mortimer Civeri
Gallente
Federal Navy Academy
Posted - 2011.08.03 20:33:00 - [25]
 

Originally by: Jdestars
Quote:


This is a gross simplification, but it will get you in the ballpark. Always be prepared for the next 20 or so invention jobs to fail, the law of independent trials will bite you.



gross simplification = Name in real īto Parameters use in loan calculation by your IRl Bank tss ;) just one exemple

check
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradoxe_de_Saint-P%C3%A9tersbourg

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_de_Bernoulli

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_binomiale

and some other doc "aversion of risk" , theory of game ... ;)

an other way its calculation of expend invention during a referal period eg (10 years )
-you know how you can do a max invention during this period
-you can evaluat the growing cost of component if you had follow de price since many year
with the distribution curve you can evaluation the average success run
and so evaluat the cost whitch include the part of statistic risk ...

and you see that price of bpc AS cost X10 or more than you excepted


also ... accept your lottery risk

the only way in this lottery : CCP must be up the base Success ... if you dont want a bpc to 50-100m ...


Well if he really wanted to go hard core and fiddle with Bernouli distribution calculations, he could. As each invention job is an individual Bernouli trial, he could figure out the binomial distribution curves given n trials and plot out probability curves and such. There is still a 'non-zero chance' ( however small ) that each invention job will fail, as each job is an independent trial of probability. Just giving some advice for a string of 'bad luck', because sometimes the RNG hates you.

Jdestars
Stars Research systems Incorporation
Posted - 2011.08.03 21:07:00 - [26]
 

i said since 2006 Invention Lottery its worth mechanical game than old T2 lottery .
for reduce risk only way for producer if CCP dont change It : Remove random factor => buy the Bpc to inventor who sells at a loss Wink

i produce with BPO T2 and Bpc invention
ive all skill science T2/T3 to max (55.5m sp )and i ve already bad serie like the Author ..
i try to apply rules calculation but its not compatible with Eve Market , trader strategy are not the same than producer ...

J3ST3R
Gallente
Dark Light Inc
Caretakers
Posted - 2011.08.04 14:00:00 - [27]
 

I do 5 Jobs at a time with max skills but no decrypters, 2/3 or 3/5 is the norm on occasion I'll get 4/5 but thats rare.


 

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