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blankseplocked PLEX prices/Possible EVE player base crash. Discuss
 
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Sig Sour
Posted - 2011.06.04 21:19:00 - [181]
 

Originally by: Jennifer Starling
You're not taking into account that those sold plexes are being used for gametime so are actually only "instead of" subscription not "on top of".

Want a cookie? You know I also was not counting the difference between buying PLEX and GTC's from a resller or straight from CCP, how that affects the fluctuation margins between the time code bizarre and PLEX on the market by region, and what that does to the revenue stream at CCP. Nor was I discussing the impact of real world economics vs in game economics and how the health of the game as a whole reflects PLEX prices to start with. These kinds of things were not mentioned, because it was a basic demonstration. Thank you for trying too hard.

Scarlet des Loupes
Gallente
University of Caille
Posted - 2011.06.04 21:25:00 - [182]
 

Originally by: Aelius
Somewhere there is a balance that keeps PLEX at a certain ISK price, BUT that balance is about to shift. As you might notice PLEX price as risen and it will continue to rise this is a possible outcome scenario:

-"Poor" players start leaving EVE because the amount of "EVE work" to buy a PLEX is simply too much to enjoy the game, some will simply change back to monthly fee. But many will surely leave EVE.

-As RL PLEX price does not change it means "rich" players receive even more ISK for their Euros/Dollars and thus needing to sell less PLEXes to achieve their ISK target, thus making the PLEX isk price to climb even more.

Eventually hordes of players will start to leave or changing to a subscription fee (those who can), the ones who can't will leave making EVE "smaller" by big numbers in a short/medium period of time.

I guess the number of leaving players and the number of plexes split into AUR will eventually even each other out?

Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
Posted - 2011.06.04 22:35:00 - [183]
 

Originally by: Scarlet des Loupes
Originally by: Aelius
Somewhere there is a balance that keeps PLEX at a certain ISK price, BUT that balance is about to shift. As you might notice PLEX price as risen and it will continue to rise this is a possible outcome scenario:

-"Poor" players start leaving EVE because the amount of "EVE work" to buy a PLEX is simply too much to enjoy the game, some will simply change back to monthly fee. But many will surely leave EVE.

-As RL PLEX price does not change it means "rich" players receive even more ISK for their Euros/Dollars and thus needing to sell less PLEXes to achieve their ISK target, thus making the PLEX isk price to climb even more.

Eventually hordes of players will start to leave or changing to a subscription fee (those who can), the ones who can't will leave making EVE "smaller" by big numbers in a short/medium period of time.

I guess the number of leaving players and the number of plexes split into AUR will eventually even each other out?


The point is not that markets won't work themselves out. Of course they will.

The problem is that there is no reason markets will settle at a level that will attract and retain the maximum number of players or even create the maximum income for CCP from the existing players.

Suppy of plexes is based on how many players are interested in the game enough to pay extra to play the game . Interest, not value is the main driver. If they aren't interested no price is right.

Too high of prices create game balance issues between paying customers and paying more customers (even ignoring the play for free players). Too high of prices can start actually decreasing sales if players can get all of their game needes filled selling less plex for more isk.

Its conceivable that the balance could swing to a price that power industrial, trader, characters sale players still find worth it (even if thats only 1/2 the current number that would be enough if 1/2 the number of players interested enough in the game to pay extra)

Say that balanced at 800million . It could reach a vicious cycle with people quitting because they thing the game is unbalanced, people quitting because they can't sometimes play for free and pay other times (or split pay for one account, use isk for the second), or rat or mine to sustain alts etc. Still some people with piles of isk and established enterprises would find that high price cutting into profits but still worthwhile if the opperation were making 10 billion a month. Owners of tech moons might need that industrial account paid, ...many other places where some demand would exist at very high and in balanciing price levels.

The presumption that more people will get interested in paying extra for a game because the game currency is cheaper and they can get farther ahead with less money just doesnt hold water. Even with that there would be no guarantee because its still apples to oranges and what is beeing balanced is players on two extremes, not the motivations of the vital group in the middle.


Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
Posted - 2011.06.04 22:49:00 - [184]
 

Originally by: Tshien Tze
Once you understand the basics of a market economy, things become clear. Plex is on the rise because of an increased demand, more people are buying it (speculators I guess). Also, the economy being what it is, fewer people are purchasing plex and dropping it on the market. They don't feel it's a good value for their money. Now as Plex prices rise, more of these people may begin to see a value of ISK/$ and start buying plex again, putting more plex on the market and easing demand. Also, if a few of that alts out there stop buying plex, demand drops and so does the price. In short, plex will always correct itself. Just because the price may go up does not mean the system is broken. Inflation of Plex may itself be a correction.


There is no proof that its the economy or value that dictates the number of plex bought with $ and sold for isk

That is a factor of how many people are interested in playing the game. Sure , the price might move the percentage of those people up or down, and likewise have some effect on the number they buy...but the number of isk the get isn't the pivotal point.

You're not going to pay at all , especially not pay extra for a game you're not enjoying.

What those Plex are sold for will be a matter of competition amoung the isk>plex crowd to the marignal profital price that will meet the supply that has very little to do with price.

Narisa Bithon
Caldari
The Motley Crew Reborn
Posted - 2011.06.04 22:57:00 - [185]
 

Edited by: Narisa Bithon on 04/06/2011 22:59:28
1 positive thing about the op's statement is that bots will be more expensive to operate


also aurum will be a passing fancy for most eve players. most players dont really give a hoot what outfit their toon has on.... i know i dont give a crap.

Aerethir
Gallente
Posted - 2011.06.05 19:20:00 - [186]
 

I feel weird now for having one account O.O

But not bashing anyone, each to their own :)

Orthaen
Posted - 2011.06.05 19:26:00 - [187]
 

Originally by: Narisa Bithon
Edited by: Narisa Bithon on 04/06/2011 22:59:28
1 positive thing about the op's statement is that bots will be more expensive to operate


also aurum will be a passing fancy for most eve players. most players dont really give a hoot what outfit their toon has on.... i know i dont give a crap.


Maybe the it'll be a passing fancy for the current playerbase, but the playerbase CCP is trying so hard to attract? They'll go nutty over character customization. Blizzard could make a killing if they offered paid character customization, even just recolors.

In related news, CCP should umm...stop trying to attract more different players. You have a niche, fill it! If you try to please everyone and make many dollars you'll end ****ing off everyone. Except the nincompoops, I suppose. It works out pretty well for other MMOs though, so I suppose give it a try? No wait, dont. I like EVE.

J Random
Tax Protestants
Epsilon Shimmy Alliance
Posted - 2011.06.05 20:17:00 - [188]
 

Gad this entire threats make me remember the massive amount of folk we have on Eve from socialist countries. Guys, COMMAND ECONOMIES DO NOT WORK. The only way for CCP to fix this is to introduce price ceilings and/or manipulate the supply. Regardless of whether you follow the PSST or AS/AD model this will ultimately fail as it will devalue PLEX's for folk that use real money to buy them and will, in the end, cost CCP real money. The wonders of free markets is the market will fix itself. If we lose 25% of alt's, that's not a bad thing. If kids have to spent their allowance now on Eve instead of "bath salts", E, or whatever the fashionable drug of the week is or condoms, not going to cry.

As for the people that can't afford PLEX'es, give me a break. I spend more on coffee in a week than what a plex cost. Hell my four year old daughter can afford a monthly PLEX on her allowance (US$10 a week) if she played Eve. For that dude working 42 hours and playing eve 80, go get a part time job at McDonalds, work 2 hours a week, and go buy yourself a plex and get back to enjoying the game instead of mining 80 hours to get enough money to pay for a PLEX.

Scarlet des Loupes
Gallente
University of Caille
Posted - 2011.06.06 23:39:00 - [189]
 

Originally by: Orthaen
Maybe the it'll be a passing fancy for the current playerbase, but the playerbase CCP is trying so hard to attract? They'll go nutty over character customization. Blizzard could make a killing if they offered paid character customization, even just recolors.

In related news, CCP should umm...stop trying to attract more different players. You have a niche, fill it! If you try to please everyone and make many dollars you'll end ****ing off everyone. Except the nincompoops, I suppose. It works out pretty well for other MMOs though, so I suppose give it a try? No wait, dont. I like EVE.

CCP is a company and they want to make more money every year. Although I think they'd better improve the new player experience to get a better retention instead of advertising like there's no tomorrow and let you walk in a captain's quarter (which I like, I just doubt if Incarna will be really fun and enjoyable within a reasonale timeframe).


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