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Chevalleis
The Legendary Conquest
Posted - 2011.05.31 06:12:00 - [31]
 

I have a feeling that this could help me bigtime.

Rule18
Capsuleer Races And Violent Events Inc.
Posted - 2011.05.31 06:46:00 - [32]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

Originally by: Rule18
Interested.

On a side note, I have played with similar techniques RL with limited to no success... (let's hope the success part changes when applied to eve markets :-P )


I am interested knowing what you did. Many times a person gets *almost* there and would just need a little push in the back to succeed.

I will love to help you to succeed, even at the cost of tarnishing EvE nasty reputation Razz.


Pretty sure my problem was trying to use the 5 minute chart and too much leverage >.< Anyway, was entertaining while it lasted and I look forward to this thread/course

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.31 09:38:00 - [33]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 31/05/2011 09:40:41
Originally by: Rule18
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

Originally by: Rule18
Interested.

On a side note, I have played with similar techniques RL with limited to no success... (let's hope the success part changes when applied to eve markets :-P )


I am interested knowing what you did. Many times a person gets *almost* there and would just need a little push in the back to succeed.

I will love to help you to succeed, even at the cost of tarnishing EvE nasty reputation Razz.


Pretty sure my problem was trying to use the 5 minute chart and too much leverage >.< Anyway, was entertaining while it lasted and I look forward to this thread/course


Don't take my word on this, if you go on actual expert traders websites they will all tell you how 5 minutes trading is for very experienced traders with 5+ years under their belts.
It's also my own experience and why I am switching to this other method. It's based on daily bars, it actually gives you the time to *think*.

Add on top of that the nice fact that you are going to be immune from news peaks, will pay two pips for a 50-100 pips trade instead of paying 2 * 5 pips to make 5 trades of 10 pips each.
The fun part is that who wants you to over-leverage and over-pay are guess whom? The brokers! Didn't you notice how it's the brokers who advertise high leverage and short term daytrading? Because that squeezes you out of your money in no time.
You are just under the illusion of having "more control" by trading short term to be "more active".

Too bad, profitable traders YAWN at their trades and sleep while they develop.

If you don't know *exactly, with no uncertainty* how / where your trade is going to go while you sleep, then you are not going to be a profitable trader.

Finally, trading is a PASSIVE activity, if you are active you are boned.

Also, to say with my teacher's words: "lol what did you do so bad to deserve to stay stuck to a monitor all day long like an idiot?"

Rule18
Capsuleer Races And Violent Events Inc.
Posted - 2011.05.31 09:51:00 - [34]
 

Valid points. At the same time I was hemorrhaging cash on the 5-min chart I was hedged against myself with 2-3 day trades... went 4/5 on those over a month...

In other words yes, point taken.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.31 09:55:00 - [35]
 

I am humbled by the support I am getting.

My already bulging in game eve-mail box is now exploding.

I want to reply to all who ask for stuff, but please remove the CSPA charges Crying or Very sad

Caleb Ayrania
Gallente
TarNec
Posted - 2011.05.31 10:28:00 - [36]
 

Great initiative VV.. Looking forward to it.

A side note comment to some of the above:

Investment is a game of scales timewise. From the slow long term to the highest frequency trading. I believe VV by heart is a bit of a high frequency trader, I personally always prefered a more long term position.

It is important to note that just like in EVE its a game of diversification, playing the widerspreads, and consolidation, moving all the volatile assets into less volatile.

Its kinda like Max Keiser terms it; "A Casino Gullag".. Its all about gambles and odds. Some gambles are almost so safe its boring, and not much margin and profit to make on those, except for some slow drips of income. Others are freakish and almost impossible to predict and based on things like force majeur. In EVE this would be like buying the trade goods carbon in speculation that incarna will bring something important to that market.

Others ofc use manipulation and insider trading. I know Aelisha from above did some night one nighter cornering manipulations, a simple comaprisson would be the movie "trading places" with Eddie Murphy, where you see cornering schemes in effect. (Albeit this was based on foreknowledge in part) In EVE another "insider trading" scheme is looking into the crystal ball called sisi. This ofc is open to all players, but mainly people that have very vested interest like traders use this.. A lot of iskies are made from the "plebes" by using this tactic.

Suffice it to say VVs classes are not just an interesting gimmick, its a valuable tool and learning experience directly applicable in the real world. A small caveat though.. at present time EVE markets are more "stable" then RL, so make sure you really dare and can take the losses if you jump feet first into the real markets.

Dethmourne Silvermane
Gallente
Origin.
Black Legion.
Posted - 2011.05.31 20:34:00 - [37]
 

When do we start?

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.31 20:58:00 - [38]
 

First of all a warning to the loads of people who mailed me.

This is NOT a (station trading) course for beginners.

This is an attempt at bringing individuals who are:

- very strong willed,

- not enslaved to an instant gratification mentality

- ready to work their ass out


to a more advanced knowledge of the markets inside aspects and eventually make them able to indifferently trade in RL or trade in EvE with a RL trader mentality (harder!).
This has nothing to do with the classic EvE trading / flipping / arbitrage.



Originally by: Caleb Ayrania

I believe VV by heart is a bit of a high frequency trader, I personally always prefered a more long term position



No, in RL I switched to trading on daily bars, i.e. the shortest trade will last 24 hours at a minimum.
This fits neatly in EvE, where the available bars are only the daily ones.


Caleb I am glad you posted this because it gives me a lot of opportunities to clear some of the huge misinformation that is seeded upon the average population.

Originally by: Caleb Ayrania

It is important to note that just like in EVE its a game of diversification, playing the widerspreads, and consolidation, moving all the volatile assets into less volatile



This is the ideal situation. In reality unless you have 25k USD you can't really diversify on more than 2-3 overnight enabled accounts.
Furthermore, (in RL) all the open trades equity should not exceed 1-2% of the account tops (this will be covered in the course as Fixed Fractional Money Management). The average Joe with a 5k USD account will just be able to open a position where he can lose 50 USD.


Originally by: Caleb Ayrania

Its kinda like Max Keiser terms it; "A Casino Gullag".. Its all about gambles and odds



In one of the fundamental books (Larry Harris, former SEC Lead Economist) that those who will follow the course should REALLY read, there are the various kind of traders definition.
Gamblers are covered but are neither considered traders nor have any hope to compete with traders.

Trading <> gambling. Those who will read the book will find like a whole page listing the differences.


Originally by: Caleb Ayrania

A small caveat though.. at present time EVE markets are more "stable" then RL, so make sure you really dare and can take the losses if you jump feet first into the real markets.



The course will cover the differences betwen RL and EvE trading. Here are some: RL markets are much more dynamic but EvE markets are not easy to trade on a few days horizon because the price patterns are expecially hard to export into candlebars and thus the trade triggers are of much lower quality.
The lack of short selling is also cause of differences, EvE markets are more similar to carry trade markets than regular markets. The lack of shorting creates all sorts of spiky candles when people take profit instead of short term downtrends.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.31 21:08:00 - [39]
 

Originally by: Dethmourne Silvermane
When do we start?


Despite the course is not going to be really large, it's not a solo effort. There is an expecially selected person checking the written texts and posing questions, the method's teacher who has to start another operation and this course cannot start before his own (otherwise it's really unfair competition done to the whole creator of the thing) plus a good time preparing 2 web sites.

I think the first bits will be available in 15 days or so, but I have to depend on other persons completing their tasks first.

Vierego
Vierego's Junk Imports
Posted - 2011.05.31 21:30:00 - [40]
 

Very interested, be nice to have a structured lesson vs picking up as I go. Changed my major but will not get to these classes until much later, and so this would be a nice precursor.

Rens Cheque
Posted - 2011.06.01 02:08:00 - [41]
 

Originally by: Rule18
Valid points. At the same time I was hemorrhaging cash on the 5-min chart I was hedged against myself with 2-3 day trades... went 4/5 on those over a month...

In other words yes, point taken.
Or maybe the problem is that technical analysis has little to no basis in science and almost all studies tend to support the idea that it has limited, if any, ability to predict future market prices.

Anyway, have fun everyone Surprised

Elise DarkStar
Posted - 2011.06.01 02:50:00 - [42]
 

Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 01/06/2011 02:50:44
RL sham artist shows internet spaceships nerd "super secret" trading tips. Internet spaceship nerd runs class for "super secrets" on internet spaceships market forum. Other internet spaceship nerds gobble the bull**** greedily.

There are layers upon layers of rettard here, like an onion of rettardedness. It's almost commendable in its encapsulation of idiocy

Rule18
Capsuleer Races And Violent Events Inc.
Posted - 2011.06.01 05:07:00 - [43]
 

while fundamentals are more useful for longer term predictions, technical analysis can be useful and relatively accurate (better then 50% success rate) in a more or less ranging market.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.01 07:59:00 - [44]
 

Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 01/06/2011 02:50:44
RL sham artist shows internet spaceships nerd "super secret" trading tips. Internet spaceship nerd runs class for "super secrets" on internet spaceships market forum. Other internet spaceship nerds gobble the bull**** greedily.

There are layers upon layers of rettard here, like an onion of rettardedness. It's almost commendable in its encapsulation of idiocy


Glad to have piqued your attention.

I won't argue about your educately posed opinions except for the "super secret". In fact everyone will be able to read or see the stuff.
I have plans to start a trading business venture with another guy but it won't even be on that website and in any case, it'd be aimed exclusively at RL trading, not EvE.

Cpt Fina
Red Dwarf Mining Corporation
space weaponry and trade
Posted - 2011.06.01 11:30:00 - [45]
 

Edited by: Cpt Fina on 01/06/2011 11:30:26
So basically you are offering a course in traditional technical analysis with money management elements?
To learn this efficiently takes years of real life experience (for most people) and far from everyone can make it into something profitable.

Thank you but no thanks. I have had my run with tape reading and traditional TA with rl markets. If I ever were to pick it up again and if I were to be able to generate above average returns I certainly would not waste such a rare skill on the Eve markets.

I hope the people signing up for this course realize the time and commitment it takes to learn TA to the extent in which you can generate a higher return than the market portfolio. Again, years of daily screening of charts.

Not to mention that technical analysis fundamentally contradicts current academic dogma. But thats a whole other discussion.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.01 13:31:00 - [46]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 01/06/2011 13:31:55
Originally by: Cpt Fina

So basically you are offering a course in traditional technical analysis with money management elements?
To learn this efficiently takes years of real life experience (for most people) and far from everyone can make it into something profitable.



What do you consider traditional?

Also, I posted above:

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

- very strong willed,

- not enslaved to an instant gratification mentality

- ready to work their ass out



I think it's a fair warning. Also, trading with the head (and not with the butt) shortens learning time.


Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

Not to mention that technical analysis fundamentally contradicts current academic dogma. But thats a whole other discussion.


Most academics prefer to teach quantitative analysis, which guess what, is classified as a branch of technical analysis.
Some others have started to slowly introduce graphical analysis but they are very very behind the times, some uni courses are still stuck at moving averages and that crap that stopped working 30 years ago.

Anyway it costs nothing to look at it, if it sucks... sorry. I did my best.

Cpt Fina
Red Dwarf Mining Corporation
space weaponry and trade
Posted - 2011.06.01 16:19:00 - [47]
 

Edited by: Cpt Fina on 01/06/2011 16:22:01
Edited by: Cpt Fina on 01/06/2011 16:20:50
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 01/06/2011 13:31:55

What do you consider traditional?



Traditional or classical Technical analysis is where you by visually analyzing the graph identify resists, supports, trends and formations and not by using indicators. Now, you haven't described the whole of your strategy but by the sound of it "Then you'd have to draw horizontal lines and mark the price action candles" you are simply gonna teach the different day formations (key reversal day, day reversal ect.) which in its essence is a extension of classical or traditional technical analysis in the intra-day chart.

So, money management, portfolio composition and investment psychology combined with a technical analysis method is basically the cookiecutter lesson you'll get in pretty much every broad write-up of trading. Nothing special there.



Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Also, I posted above:

- very strong willed,

- not enslaved to an instant gratification mentality

- ready to work their ass out


I think it's a fair warning. Also, trading with the head (and not with the butt) shortens learning time.


It IS a fair warning. But most people probably do not understand what you mean by this.

For example, will your students be able to apply technical analysis to generate above market rate of returns after a year of studying technical analysis daily?
Most certainly not. Learning the mechanical aspects of TA is fairly simple and straightforward. You can teach your student the basics in a week. Applying technical analysis is something that comes after years of daily training and analysing of charts.

Will they ever be able to apply technical analysis to generate above market rate of returns?
Peer reviewed studies in the field say that only a select few will. A significant
chunk of the litterature say "we cant find any evidence that they will" and the rest say "there's some indication that a few might".

Is it possible to generate above market returns using techical analysis?
The last 25-30 years of economic conventional research rely on assumptions that say that TA as an investment strategy cannot possibly generate persistant above market returns. We have basically constructed the modern theoretical framework of finacial economics around the assumption that TA is impossible.
Most modern econometrical time-series-predictions rely on random walk characteristics of assets
(meaning TA is impossible). Modern portfolio theory and CAPM rely on the EMH meaning that TA isn't going to work.


I say that you are either the most generous and kind person alive taking on this task and not selling your 90% above market formula to the hundreds
of multi billion dollar mutual funds out there which CANNOT generate sustainedabove market returns,
or simply that you and your "teacher" does not understand TA in depht and his 90% market return – while obviously is above market returns – isn't persistent.



Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha


Most academics prefer to teach quantitative analysis, which guess what, is classified as a branch of technical analysis.



No, quantitative analysis using time-series – to have any kind of predictive power – rely on the series being stationary and the price to follow a random walk process.
Even tho they superficially can seem similar, they rely on totally different assumptions about reality and how prices move.



Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

Anyway it costs nothing to look at it, if it sucks... sorry. I did my best.



Yes, the only saving grace to this proposal is that it is free.
I wish you the best of luck in this endevour.

diggin rocks
Posted - 2011.06.01 18:21:00 - [48]
 

Does tech analysis distinguish between systemic and non systemic risk?
If you have any suggestions on text-books for behavioral finance let me know.



Most of my training is in quant. methods. Very little bit in tech analysis.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.01 19:48:00 - [49]
 

Lots of interesting topics, so my reply will be a nice wall of text. Twisted Evil

Originally by: Cpt Fina

So, money management, portfolio composition and investment psychology combined with a technical analysis method is basically the cookiecutter lesson you'll get in pretty much every broad write-up of trading. Nothing special there



Why should it be special? I have nothing "revolutionary" (= scam) to sell. Markets are markets, price is price, however someone could twist it.
But how many free TA methods covering from A to Z are out there? How many include EvE coverage? How many have videos?


Originally by: Cpt Fina

Applying technical analysis is something that comes after years of daily training and analysing of charts



If they get a simulator like I'd suggest them to do, it won't take several years. It'll take some months. Less for EvE markets.


Originally by: Cpt Fina

Peer reviewed studies in the field say that only a select few will



Do you come from Italy or something, where you don't have an American dream, you just born crap, live crap, die crap.
Well I come from there and I believe in American dreams. If *1* guy manages to make profits then the effort was not in vain.
Others will fail at trading but at least they will have a better understanding about markets.

Heck, people still play lottos, despite the chances are FAR less than 5% and they learn nothing from it.
A trading course at least has some learning value.


Originally by: Cpt Fina

We have basically constructed the modern theoretical framework of finacial economics around the assumption that TA is impossible.
Most modern econometrical time-series-predictions rely on random walk characteristics of assets
(meaning TA is impossible). Modern portfolio theory and CAPM rely on the EMH meaning that TA isn't going to work



I noticed how good this modern theoretical framework did for the world in the last 14 years.
Also, as I said before, even if price was exclusively a random walk (and this is a lie), you could perform grid trading on it and statistically gain money.
Also, market efficiency dogmas are just crap.
For an huge explanation about these things refer to Chapter 10 of former SEC Chief Economist Larry Harris's book. Maybe he knows something.

Finally I was trying to find the text where I found that statement about TA and quant analysis being in the same family and the first link that occurred of course was Wikipedia.
It indeeds relates the two (in a different way than I have found elsewhere) but... OH MY EYES!
I violated myself reading that lengthy piece of crock... Wow. Just wow. Now I get why of the hate on T.A. I'd hate it myself if half of what's written there was true.
It's written like T.A. really was that infomercial thing with indicators, astrology sh!t and maybe a diet!
Who wrote that article has probably been scammed by one of the thousands "marketeers" that know everything about "retention", "market quotas", "fidelization" but have no idea about what they are selling (= garbage).

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.01 19:56:00 - [50]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 01/06/2011 19:58:42
Originally by: Cpt Fina

I say that you are either the most generous and kind person alive taking on this task and not selling your 90% above market formula to the hundreds
of multi billion dollar mutual funds out there which CANNOT generate sustainedabove market returns



- Why should I sell something? Did Linus Torvalds sell his kernel? (no, I am not comparing even to the toilet paper he uses, just to name an example of someone all know).

Kindly remember that I am the EvE-stupid guy who managed to create a charity to donate everything away. In EvE, really. And I am glad I did because there is at least 1 snowball in hell chance that *1* guy will survive or have a better life because of that and thus it'd be a worthy effort.
Same for this course, if a single unemployed guy can feed his family (not talking getting zillionaires, just surviving) thanks to this, then it was worth making.

- Mutual funds managers cannot achieve high profits, mutual funds have to forfeit most of their gains in order to make them as steady as possible. Technically it's known as "positive persistence in funds performance".
If dumping all your assets on an ETF or index was *that* good, then everyone would thrash mutual funds and invest in ETFs and indexes.
But no, people don't want to gain +14% this year and -8% next year so they settle for +4% both years.
Furthermore, the bigger the fund, the lower the gains. See EvE glass ceilings.

Finally, for an complete explanation about portfolios beta and tons of considerations about active funds management refer to Chapter 22 of reference textbook by Larry Harris.


Originally by: Cpt Fina

you and your "teacher" does not understand TA in depht and his 90% market return – while obviously is above market returns – isn't persistent



I can't talk for myself because I am still backtesting the system while living on an older one. The guy has 2 children, started from poverty and now earns enough to feed wife and 2 children, car, house etc.
When you are in ethernal sh!t like we are (forever unemployed with no hope to ever find a job again), the statement "isn't persistent" - even if it was true - is still better than going to live under a bridge right today.
Anyway right today I got an invitation by an old acquaintance called Chris Lori, a CTA fund manager whose lack of persistance lets him manage a fund with $3M NAV. He strictly uses T.A. Not the one described in Wikipedia though.


Originally by: diggin rocks

Does tech analysis distinguish between systemic and non systemic risk?



This is a question that would deserve a proper answer, I am not sure this is the proper place. To be brief, TA is a component used by a whole trading method. The trading method encourages a risk of up to 1-2% of the capital, which may be spread across multiple markets.
If you choose non correlated markets you risk about 1/N of the predefined equity across N simultaneous trades.
In case of dramatic systemic failure, you will have about 50% chances to lose about 60% of the predefined equity (60% of 1-2% of your total capital that is). Once you are out of the market, it's your choice. I'd stay out or try another continent's markets / different securities, the method is market-agnostic.


Originally by: diggin rocks

If you have any suggestions on text-books for behavioral finance let me know.



Please don't get any book. Many are outdated copycats and what you'll get is just huge confusion. It'll be all covered in the course.

After reading that Wikipedia definition and description I am ever more convinced you should follow my suggestion.

Deadloch
Amarr
One Wounded Wing
Posted - 2011.06.01 20:06:00 - [51]
 

Would love to receive more info on this...

Evemail is great!!

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.01 20:40:00 - [52]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 01/06/2011 21:04:46
Back test: Link. 251 pips gain.

Forward test: Link

Krathos Morpheus
Legion Infernal
Posted - 2011.06.01 21:08:00 - [53]
 

I'm curious and interested, I don't know if this is useful or useless as some seem to defend, but this is a game and I will follow as long as I find it interesting/challenging/fun. The only way to find out is to try. I hope I have time to follow when it starts, if not I guess I'll have to revisit it later.

I have a few questions about the method if you don't mind, specially seeing the comments left by detractors:
  • Is there reason behind or just empirical evidence? Will we learn the reasons behind?

  • When you talk about time to think and thinking, are there absolute conclusions that you can reach or you work with chances and intuition?

  • When talking about the time needed to master the method, is it because you need to learn every possible variation (I hate having to study opening moves in chess and known maneuvers in Go) or because it usually takes long to understand how it works?

Quote:
Do you come from Italy or something, where you don't have an American dream, you just born crap, live crap, die crap.
Well I come from there and I believe in American dreams. If *1* guy manages to make profits then the effort was not in vain.
Others will fail at trading but at least they will have a better understanding about markets.

The American dream is a lie, a nasty one in fact because it hides behind a half truth. Sure there is and always will be a few people who succeed above the masses, who are more talented, who in addition may have the little luck needed in the right moment. The truth is that those people do not need the dream advertised to them, sold to them, they will succeed by their own merits in any case.

The American dream is sold and advertised to those other people that are not in that group. Why? Because it creates conformism, if they feel that anyone can be a millionaire they will not think it's unfair when some people are, thinking that it's their fault they are not. They will not think it's not fair that banks exploit them if they think it's in their hands to put a stop to it, if they think they have some control left, if they think it's their fault to be in the situation they are.

It is funny and sad at the same time to see how you put it against the very thing that it covers up, saying that you have the dream or you have crap life. You have the life you have, whatever it is. The dream only serves to cover it up, to not see what it is, to dream instead of facing reality.

To be clear, I have no problem with the people earning their success, you probably are not affected by the lie, but you are selling the lie to others that will be, helping the long time consolidated powers that got and maintain their positions without effort (those I have a problem with), not like you I guess. Dreaming doesn't get you anywhere, action does, sometimes anyways, when you are not fully chained.

JitaPriceChecker2
Posted - 2011.06.01 21:25:00 - [54]
 

How can you compare RL trading to EVE trading when most of the trades in RL is done via high frequency trading machines ( bots ) ....

oh wait ...

JitaPriceChecker2
Posted - 2011.06.01 21:34:00 - [55]
 

Edited by: JitaPriceChecker2 on 01/06/2011 21:34:44
Originally by: Cpt Fina


Is it possible to generate above market returns using techical analysis?



Even if techical analysis is no better then wishfull thinking ,it cant be possible since technical anlysis still inculdes that humans are doind the trades while in fact in the last 5 -6 years most trades are beind done by computer programs !

viiiper
Posted - 2011.06.01 21:42:00 - [56]
 

This will be fun to watch especially if the videos are made and placed on YT, but I see nothing new here, all eve trade skills are learnt the hard way, by not repeating mistakes, by not over exposing your monies to wild ideas.

The point is, why share something good if not to hide something better, I mean throw the monkeys the banana skins & keep the Banana & plant. I have my methods, self thought from the eve market and give my guidance in person to those I meet that wanna start trading but I smell something not fully in the light here.

I can easily make 1 Bill a day within 4-8 hours and have in place the mechanics for the next day so I have to spend less time making the same billion and rest on the third day. I call this my 30 day plan because it involves 10x3 day cycles which nets me approx 50% min profit on investment. Now if I were a nice chap I'd share but this is my point, why give away & dilute a winning formula if not to deflect attention......

All good/excellent traders will not give easily their knowledge, this market depends on the majority trying and the minority succeeding. If we all succeeded the market would be swamped, I mean how many of us traders could the market stand creaming off 20 billion a month.

Good luck.....

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.02 00:00:00 - [57]
 

Originally by: Krathos Morpheus

I'm curious and interested, I don't know if this is useful or useless as some seem to defend, but this is a game and I will follow as long as I find it interesting/challenging/fun.



Lots of fantastic questions, which I will gladly answer since I feel empathy with you.

I was the typical child who would play with Meccano, then with Technic Lego, then self learn ancient VAX, Apple 2e, Commodore Vic 20+...

You remind me in 2009, when I read a MD post saying to buy when the two moving averages crossed upwards and sell when crossed downwards.
I wanted to see why this would work. Why would intelligent men predictably obey to two lines and let me profit? Isn't it just stupid?
From that day, I have run for a lot of miles. Now I know the limits of the above and I know why.
It has been challenging to find the way, I had to admit for the first time in my life I embarked in something I could not do. Too much garbage and lies everywhere, too many scams, the information is just not here.

Then one day I stumbled upon Someone Who Knew And Shared: James16.
That was the first time I could understand a market for what it is: a giant meeting, where traders give to the others clues about where to meet and seal a deal.
They want to trade with you, they need to trade with you, this is the stupidly easy reason why markets are not random.
No place would be more pointless than a market where people can't find a counterpart.
This applies to Wall Street exactly like to the RL market around the block, where your mom buys vegetables at the booths.

Since then, I learned more stuff, joined courses (some good, most rubbish) till I met a trader who would trade a more conservative version of James16 method. That's what I picked, since I am "poor" and unemployed IRL and can't afford a lot of losses.


Originally by: Krathos Morpheus

Is there reason behind or just empirical evidence? Will we learn the reasons behind



Yes, there is and I will explain the hows and whys. Basically, there is a protagonist called price and an ethernal struggle between buyers and sellers. This struggle finds temporary meeting places where ones or the others are favored, this may be due to the so called "market memory" or for pure mechanical causes (lots of options parked at a certain price level, when hit they trigger).
All a trader has to do is to watch several markets once a day and see if one is approaching one of these known places. If it is so, buyers and sellers tell you their strength and sometimes even what they plan to do (usually it's the path of least resistance). Only when they have a clear idea and show it, then you may decide to enter a trade (possibly with the trend).
You'll be surprised at how often the traders displayed intentions result true. That's it, except for the execution details I have just told you most of what you need to know.

How does all of this fit with modern theories? I suppose it fits in the same place where it fits when they describe as impossible the vegetables market around the block. The market efficiency theories fit as good as they fit to explain how optimized is one booth selling 1 Kg of potatoes for €1.00 and the one nearby for €1.25 and another for €1.10. All 3 bought from the same provider...

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.02 00:04:00 - [58]
 

Originally by: Krathos Morpheus

When you talk about time to think and thinking, are there absolute conclusions that you can reach or you work with chances and intuition?



There are totally mechanical systems that I find quite bad. This is called discretional, i.e. you read clues, prioritize them (this is a fixed rule set). In the end you have a list of reasons to trade and one of reason to not trade. Your magic indicator (your brain) will decide if the factors are enough to trade or not. Some trades are a no brainer, like one I linked above. Others will be quite uncertain. But look! The graph has a nice doji aka indecision candle, exactly today.
Why? Because you are not alone at not knowing what to do. Easy fix: you pass. Every time you are not comfortable, you just pass and look at the next of 10000 other markets. You will find one where the other traders know what to do and tell you.


Originally by: Krathos Morpheus

When talking about the time needed to master the method, is it because you need to learn every possible variation (I hate having to study opening moves in chess and known maneuvers in Go) or because it usually takes long to understand how it works?



Easy to learn, hard to master. You can quickly drive a city car. It'll take a bit longer to become a Rally champion.


Originally by: Krathos Morpheus

The American dream is a lie, a nasty one in fact because it hides behind a half truth. Sure there is and always will be a few people who succeed above the masses, who are more talented, who in addition may have the little luck needed in the right moment. The truth is that those people do not need the dream advertised to them, sold to them, they will succeed by their own merits in any case.



Non Americans know what you say. You don't see an huge detail. In other countries if you are talented and with merits, your ONLY hope is to migrate to the USA. Ever wondered why 90% of the talented Italian scientists all live in the USA?
They could never compete with the local corruption, the endless political favors to ask, being always surpassed by "friends of friends" while they sink down the list for an awful job (researchers here may have to clean rooms and worse). Being good does not matter, nor is a quality sought by employers.
The American dream is about it being merely *possible*, even if you have to be good. There are many countries worse than mine as well.


Originally by: JitaPriceChecker2

it cant be possible since technical anlysis still inculdes that humans are doind the trades while in fact in the last 5 -6 years most trades are beind done by computer programs



HFT algos (by their own practitioneers and supporters say) minimally affect human players. You'll never notice a 10 millisecond trade happening right before yours.
EAs (the retail bots) are so stupid that they are easier to beat than a Jita bot.


Originally by: viiiper

The point is, why share something good if not to hide something better



Yeah I could sell it for $99 like every other scammer. Pay to see! Oh wait, then you'd post I am scamming people into payware garbage.
I am doing what Open Source has done. Put the cards on the table and let people do what they want with it. I am not going to lose my sleep if someone does not like it.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.06.02 00:06:00 - [59]
 

Originally by: viiiper

I have my methods, self thought from the eve market and give my guidance in person to those I meet that wanna start trading but I smell something not fully in the light here



Here's what smells: you are rightly focused in EvE and use EvE's own mechanics to earn ISK. I want to give to interested people a glimpse about how it works outside of EvE, where it's not enough to flip a Meta 4 item to become rich.
The absolute returns of RL trading applied in EvE are possibly inferior to station trading. It's not even station trading, it's low commitment like "slow selling". Unlike slow selling you are not invested into lots of stock and orders everywhere. Some times a trade lasts 1 day, other times it lasts 2-5, rarely more.

Cpt Fina
Red Dwarf Mining Corporation
space weaponry and trade
Posted - 2011.06.02 00:57:00 - [60]
 

Edited by: Cpt Fina on 02/06/2011 01:10:58
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Why should it be special? I have nothing "revolutionary" (= scam) to sell. Markets are markets, price is price, however someone could twist it.
But how many free TA methods covering from A to Z are out there? How many include EvE coverage? How many have videos?

If you can consistently win out on 90% of your trades you have a truly mindblowing trading strategy that many would walk over dead bodies to get their hands on. And I’m not talking about the average joe who wanna get rich quick, I’m talking about the vast majority of professional portfolio managers who could only dream of figures like that.
And simple fundamental Technical analysis is very easy to access nowadays. If you truly don’t want to pay for the fantastic books out there then there’s a heap of instructional videos on youtube.
Here’s a few on MACD alone:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OR8vwFv-5iU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9nds4OpA2I
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiX8ZzgDdPk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlK6ELbCm8g

A few on money management
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dr17IFhamAg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D_O6ZeRRn8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSUqTP4PhK4&feature=related



Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
If they get a simulator like I'd suggest them to do, it won't take several years. It'll take some months. Less for EvE markets.


What simulator are you talking about? A candlestick chart? Candlestick or barcharts are so essential to TA that your statement makes no sense at all. It’s comparable to “I will learn to drive a car much faster since I bought one with wheels”.
Candlestick is a prerequisite for any serious inquiry of a chart. As I said, you can skim through the TA-videos on youtube very fast. But to apply technical analysis successfully is something that comes after years for most. Now, I know your experience tells you different and the only thing I can say to my credentials is that I also have several years experience of Technical analysis, have a mutual fund manager in the family and have talked to several fund managers and people in the business. This idea is pretty uniform about this.

Or are you talking about a pattern based systematic or algorithmic trading system? In which case extended knowledge of TA still is needed, not the kind you learn in months. But after years.



Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Do you come from Italy or something, where you don't have an American dream, you just born crap, live crap, die crap.
Well I come from there and I believe in American dreams. If *1* guy manages to make profits then the effort was not in vain.
Others will fail at trading but at least they will have a better understanding about markets.

Heck, people still play lottos, despite the chances are FAR less than 5% and they learn nothing from it.
A trading course at least has some learning value.


Ok, your argument when I say that the collective scientific literature in the area is inconclusive is that I am un-American. I’ll let the other forum members ponder upon that response.

And you say that even if there is little to no evidence for TA – that people should still follow your method since people in general irrationally invest in negative sum games. I’ll let the people considering taking lessons from you ponder upon that response.



Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
I noticed how good this modern theoretical framework did for the world in the last 14 years.

What does this even mean?
Yes, the theories in social sciences are far from the accuracy and predictability we have in Physics and Chemistry ect. But the few theoretical cornerstones we do have and that we follow are there for a reason. Unless you can point out what part in contemporary economics that you disagree with and provide substantial evidence to the contrary (either your own or others) you should avoid making such broad statements. It doesn’t only make no sense but you risk coming off as intellectually lax.


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