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Khanid Voltar
Night's Dawn Investment Fund
Posted - 2011.05.21 22:38:00 - [1]
 

Edited by: Khanid Voltar on 21/05/2011 22:40:18
So just wondering why this board has died a death recently.

Up until recently I could spend all evening reviewing the MD forum... last few weeks there have been about 5 (trivial) threads bumped a day (or so it seems).

Has everyone ragequit or something?

edit - its gotten so boring I have been considering using an alt to troll Sencnes on the evebank thread about why Kwint wasnt a scammer...

egola
Amarr
Posted - 2011.05.21 23:17:00 - [2]
 

well its sorta mid-bond/offering for alot of folks so many businesses are just busy playing, roths been busy dealing with his ordeal, most people only responds when theres something to respond to.

so in effect, more threads like these and/or loans/ipo/offering popping up will inevitably= more activity. theres plenty of people on the board, just nothing to talk about

Kethas Protagonist
Protagonist Ventures
Posted - 2011.05.21 23:46:00 - [3]
 

1) I got tired of being treated like a criminal whenever I poked my head in just because I haven't been around long enough.

2) I got tired of watching other people being treated like criminals for the same reason.

3) I got tired of the defense of vested interests masquerading as "discussion."

4) I realized that it's not really worth my time to lounge around here - post and participate, yes, but not lounge around.

The Science and Industry forum is infinitely kinder, more helpful, and enjoyable. I still read MD regularly, usually daily, but recently I just haven't seen the point of participating in the discussion.

I'll still be around for the foreseeable future - being able to leverage myself and work with borrowed funds is too valuable to ignore, and thank you to my creditors as well as Deth for holding collateral, by the way - but if you want me to stick around and chat this place needs to become more civil.

Stealing Honest
Stealing Honest Speculation Group LLC
Posted - 2011.05.22 00:28:00 - [4]
 

It goes in cycles. Always a calm before the storm.


Elise DarkStar
Posted - 2011.05.22 00:39:00 - [5]
 

Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 22/05/2011 01:16:53
Death spiral, *****es.

You last gen scammers better get yours while the getting's still good.

egola
Amarr
Posted - 2011.05.22 01:24:00 - [6]
 

Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Edited by: Elise DarkStar on 22/05/2011 01:16:53
Death spiral, *****es.

You last gen scammers better get yours while the getting's still good.


yet somehow they always top one another.....time to open a 10T Titan/nyx/T2bpo producing IPO!

Florestan Bronstein
24th Imperial Crusade
Posted - 2011.05.22 07:37:00 - [7]
 

EBANK paid its depositors.

MD has ended.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.22 08:19:00 - [8]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 22/05/2011 08:19:24
Originally by: Kethas Protagonist
1) I got tired of being treated like a criminal whenever I poked my head in just because I haven't been around long enough.

2) I got tired of watching other people being treated like criminals for the same reason.

3) I got tired of the defense of vested interests masquerading as "discussion."

4) I realized that it's not really worth my time to lounge around here - post and participate, yes, but not lounge around.

The Science and Industry forum is infinitely kinder, more helpful, and enjoyable. I still read MD regularly, usually daily, but recently I just haven't seen the point of participating in the discussion.

I'll still be around for the foreseeable future - being able to leverage myself and work with borrowed funds is too valuable to ignore, and thank you to my creditors as well as Deth for holding collateral, by the way - but if you want me to stick around and chat this place needs to become more civil.


This.

MD and other EvE forums are a farcical case of adverse selection.

Those attempting to bring in something new or to help or just to do something are aggressed by trolls, flamers, monday quarterbacks, tire kickers.
Those who are most likely to stay are exactly specimens of the same kind. Therefore MD is like atmospherical gases: overproduced, under quality, underpriced with some sparse higher peaks when someone new comes in from another MMO and attempts doing something positive. Shortly after the guy is sacked and emasculated till he quits the forums or becomes just another useless forum DNA waste.

Rhivre
Caldari
TarNec
Posted - 2011.05.22 11:09:00 - [9]
 

Lots of people got burnt a lot recently, so maybe they are more jaded than usual, and there is always the degree of sceptism (I know, I cant spell).

Its also awesomely good weather atm apparently, so people are on less.

Option 3 is maybe everyone has run out of ideas :)

But tbh, I think the whole BB/Ebank/insert other scams/collapses here has left people a lot more distrusting than usual, and maybe has deterred new offerings as people are not convinced others would invest.

Last year it just seemed to be one thing after another, more than usual.

On the other hand, it could be that people are cooking up secret squirrel stuff, and want to have it well formulated before presenting..maybe (I can live in hope) future offerings will be better presented.

Skarii TuThess
East Aridia Trading Company
Posted - 2011.05.22 11:28:00 - [10]
 

Originally by: Rhivre
But tbh, I think the whole BB/Ebank/insert other scams/collapses here has left people a lot more distrusting than usual, and maybe has deterred new offerings as people are not convinced others would invest.


I agree, but one thing I find wierd is that instead of calling for more security / checks / verification that community seems to have gone in the opposite direction and is stating that nothing can be done, so why bother.

Questions that would have been asked as a matter of routine this time last year seem to be taken as personal attacks in new offerings. Trolling "do not invest" becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, sadly.

Rhivre
Caldari
TarNec
Posted - 2011.05.22 11:50:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: Skarii TuThess


Questions that would have been asked as a matter of routine this time last year seem to be taken as personal attacks in new offerings. Trolling "do not invest" becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, sadly.


I completely agree, and I think it is almost impossible at the moment for a new offering to get off the ground. The wierd thing is that the big scams etc have been by "known" people, so if anything, new players are not the risk, especially as they have smaller requests.

On the other hand, maybe the IRL financial crisis has affected peoples wallets, and they cant risk a couple of mill here and there

OllieNorth
Gallente
R-K Industries
Posted - 2011.05.22 20:21:00 - [12]
 

As a longtime MD lurker, I love this forum, but I have never have enough ISK to invest. Additionally, I drift in and out of EVE so I never have a long-term enough presence to justify trying to float a loan or anything.

So I guess I am part of the problem, love this forum, nothing useful to contribute. That being said, someone bring up some smaller scale investments/scams so I can throw away 50m increments of isk!

Khanid Voltar
Night's Dawn Investment Fund
Posted - 2011.05.22 20:27:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: OllieNorth

So I guess I am part of the problem, love this forum, nothing useful to contribute. That being said, someone bring up some smaller scale investments/scams so I can throw away 50m increments of isk!


Why not open a BSAC account? Plenty of shares available at under your threshold, plus various IPO's are listed on there such as Stealing Honests, or Brock Nelsons, so you can utilise your lurking talents to know what the goods deals to invest in are.

Would say more but in the middle of watching Miss Congeniality atm... if I think of anything else will let you know.

OllieNorth
Gallente
R-K Industries
Posted - 2011.05.22 20:29:00 - [14]
 

BSAC? I have gotten out of touch, only recently got re-active, so I have missed out on a lot of the current terminology. Kinda miss the old T4U drama honestly.

flakeys
The Great cornholio's
Paper Tiger Coalition
Posted - 2011.05.22 21:14:00 - [15]
 

It's allways like this from say may till july.If after summer holiday around end of august , end september it is still this way then start to question if the forum is dead.

Have you seen caod and crime and punishment lately?Same thing , VERRY few posts and generally those posts that are up have nothing meaningfull in them any way.

Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
Posted - 2011.05.22 21:50:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: flakeys

caod and crime and punishment....those posts that are up have nothing meaningfull in them any way.


That has always been the case Very Happy


Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
Posted - 2011.05.22 22:23:00 - [17]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 22/05/2011 08:19:24
Originally by: Kethas Protagonist
1) I got tired of being treated like a criminal whenever I poked my head in just because I haven't been around long enough.

2) I got tired of watching other people being treated like criminals for the same reason.

3) I got tired of the defense of vested interests masquerading as "discussion."

4) I realized that it's not really worth my time to lounge around here - post and participate, yes, but not lounge around.

The Science and Industry forum is infinitely kinder, more helpful, and enjoyable. I still read MD regularly, usually daily, but recently I just haven't seen the point of participating in the discussion.

I'll still be around for the foreseeable future - being able to leverage myself and work with borrowed funds is too valuable to ignore, and thank you to my creditors as well as Deth for holding collateral, by the way - but if you want me to stick around and chat this place needs to become more civil.


This.

MD and other EvE forums are a farcical case of adverse selection.

Those attempting to bring in something new or to help or just to do something are aggressed by trolls, flamers, monday quarterbacks, tire kickers.
Those who are most likely to stay are exactly specimens of the same kind. Therefore MD is like atmospherical gases: overproduced, under quality, underpriced with some sparse higher peaks when someone new comes in from another MMO and attempts doing something positive. Shortly after the guy is sacked and emasculated till he quits the forums or becomes just another useless forum DNA waste.


You're not going to get much from the internet if you let noise distract you from signal.

Razzing people in EVE is part of the meme... just because someone gives you **** doesn't mean many others (or even the first) might not be itnerested in what you're saying .

And you can always catch people on their bad days,
or you might be starting a conversation thats been had so many times before that a bunch of people might have been tired of responding to agains so soon, so you might get less repsonses than you think,

Usually though, freindly questions are answered ..even if you get a little ribbing along the way.

I've read this board for two years but don't look at any of the discusions on bond and investment offerings ... just not what i'm intersted in . I like the market discussions about the markets, price trends, changes in players isk spending habits etc.

Candy Oshea
Amarr
Techfree Investment Group
Posted - 2011.05.23 01:39:00 - [18]
 

This forum is ruthless.

Make a mistake & idiot trolls are on you within 5 minutes.
Make a new Idea & idiot trolls are on you within 5 minutes..
Make an Introduction thread & idiot trolls are on you within 5 minutes.

Conclusion: ppl need to Lighten up.

Sell orders is my domain, i scour it looking for deals, most of my BPO' collateral for iCandy has been obtained via it under NPC value.

E.g. EBANK firesale, sold me researched a set Armor hardener BPOs for 5 mil under NPC (roughly 7 mil), turn around & sold the set that day for 35m on contracts.

My latest is a Mrymidon BPO sold to me for 30m under NPC with ME8 research.

so ya, i enjoy the Sell order forum, but i enjoy reading this one too Cool especially constructive threads & the obvious manip threads.

Jean Baptiste Johansson
High-Tech Duct Tape
DUCT TAPE UNION
Posted - 2011.05.23 03:08:00 - [19]
 

I really agree with Kethas, VV, and Candy. I'll post when I see a cool offer or investment.

This is just a videogame for me. I prefer to not deal with forum warriors, trolls, 4chan idiots, or the dregs from C&P and CAOD.

Mu-Shi Ai
The Chrysalis Group
Posted - 2011.05.23 04:10:00 - [20]
 

I think the problem is that, in the absence of scamming, all the average bond investment is--in terms of what it gives the investor--is a sort of roleplay experience. I'm sorry, but a 3% monthly return on an investment of any size just kind of defeats the purpose of investing in the first place, because anybody can take that money and get 3% on it themselves. And while the roleplay is fine--I've really got no problem with it--I think things turn sour when the little thrill you get out of investing fake money in a realistic-looking bond (hey, we're "playing the market" without really having to play the market! what fun!) is destroyed by somebody who just snatches the whole shebang and runs off.

In order for bond investments to really be as useful as they are to the people who set up/run them, the yield has to be much, much, much higher. We're talking 1-2-300% here. But in order to offer those kinds of yields, the size of the average investment will have to decrease, since not many people are capable of taking billions of ISK and rolling it over two or more times on a monthly basis.

flakeys
The Great cornholio's
Paper Tiger Coalition
Posted - 2011.05.23 06:25:00 - [21]
 

Originally by: Breaker77
Originally by: flakeys

caod and crime and punishment....those posts that are up have nothing meaningfull in them any way.


That has always been the case Very Happy




Let's just say rock bottom atm Wink

Florestan Bronstein
24th Imperial Crusade
Posted - 2011.05.23 06:53:00 - [22]
 

Edited by: Florestan Bronstein on 23/05/2011 07:35:06

New rule of business is "collateral or gtfo" - who needs auditors, knowledgeable advisers, MD elites, ... when the investment is secure anyways?

Without all the drama threads about auditors/auditing it feels like MD's posting volume dropped by half.

No spectacular scams recently, no bank project, Hexxx takes ages to finalize his insurance system, the BSAC debate has shown again that criticizing dodgy businesses is entirely pointless (they hold their investors' money hostage, the investors will always support them), ...

The recent patches didn't give much room for (informed) speculation and the PI market seems to have settled (judging by the lack of threads).
Dumb manipulation threads have become boring and are easily identified - all that remains is writing about the prices of PLEX and Technetium every now and then.

Also many of the more interesting posters have greatly reduced their posting activity - only beacon of light atm is Elise. Other than that the SCC circlejerk is still going strong...

Kalrand disappointing MD by sending our CSM votes into the void probably didn't help either.

edit: for me the turning point was the discussion of EyjoG's ideas on PLEX stabilization.
I was really excited and happy about that announcement but the ensuing discussion was entirely disappointing - no analysis, no interesting thoughts, total waste of time.
In principle I am very interested in the discussions on inflation/deflation and its effects on the EVE economy. But people don't think clearly, draw comparisons to RL without justifying them, say that some RL rules don't apply (again without explanation), and generally don't seem to be interested in having a real discussion.
If I have to guess your rationale for believing in some statement because you can't be bothered to lay it out in a somewhat clean fashion I am simply not going to reply. Economics is all about unmuddling complex processes and trying to see the underlying simplicity in them - most discussion on EVE economics on this board seems to be focused around stirring up mud in the shallow parts of the lake.

Vierego
Vierego's Junk Imports
Posted - 2011.05.23 07:49:00 - [23]
 

I realized that what I had to say wasn't worth typing, yet.

Once I get me a bottle of scotch, a proof reader, and an editor I'll start posting in MD again. Until then I will ramble off about ship fits I know nothing about.

Once I feel I have something of worth I will create another topic in MD.

Expected time: Late to early fall.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.23 08:45:00 - [24]
 

Quote:

Economics is all about unmuddling complex processes and trying to see the underlying simplicity in them - most discussion on EVE economics on this board seems to be focused around stirring up mud in the shallow parts of the lake.



Look what happens when someone tries to unmuddle things, to show that things are simple (but not easy). The whole pitchfork mob wake up and burns them on a stake.

There's a sort of logic into it, though. Profit comes from asymmetry in information, anyone trying to shed light and reduce such asymmetry is directly hitting someone else's pockets. And they are not happy.

Florestan Bronstein
24th Imperial Crusade
Posted - 2011.05.23 09:29:00 - [25]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Look what happens when someone tries to unmuddle things, to show that things are simple (but not easy). The whole pitchfork mob wake up and burns them on a stake.

you are tempting me hard... ugh

... but instead of fetching my pitchfork I'll just leave this here (there seem to be many more in German than in English).


Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2011.05.23 09:59:00 - [26]
 

Originally by: Florestan Bronstein
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Look what happens when someone tries to unmuddle things, to show that things are simple (but not easy). The whole pitchfork mob wake up and burns them on a stake.

you are tempting me hard... ugh

... but instead of fetching my pitchfork I'll just leave this here (there seem to be many more in German than in English).




Weather lore : Meteorology = Gann trader astrology : Financial analysis

Wyke Mossari
Gallente
Posted - 2011.05.23 11:53:00 - [27]
 

Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 23/05/2011 11:55:32

All the bonds and IPOs squeezed out the audience interested in the general market and economics discussions. Now that the vast bulk of bonds/IPOs have proven to be pretty much scams and so much hot air there are fewer posters and lurkers left to engage in news, editorial, tips, manipulations and cartels etc.

The bitterness from the failed IPO and scams increasingly gets carried over into the other threads. This forum is a small part of the eve market community but instead of conspiring against the bulk of those outsiders, manipulation threads for example get called out and then ignored, when mostly they should (IMHO) become a issue of exploiting the outsiders and battles of wits between the MD opinion formers.

Posting stuff like "obvious manipulation" is asinine. It implies some aren't. It misses the point that whenever somebody posts about a specific market they have an agenda. That should be taken as read, the automatic behaviour should be how can I use that to my advantage. Does it coincide with mine. Should I play along with it or move on to something else.



Skarii TuThess
East Aridia Trading Company
Posted - 2011.05.23 12:09:00 - [28]
 

Originally by: Mu-Shi Ai
I'm sorry, but a 3% monthly return on an investment of any size just kind of defeats the purpose of investing in the first place, because anybody can take that money and get 3% on it themselves.


Although it is possible to quibble a little over active vs passive income, you have a very good point. One strange feature of IPOs and Bonds is that even though it seems like overall appetite has waned (at least you get that impression from the cynicism) the price has not risen in accordance. This is possibly due to the lack of offerings available so that anything gets jumped on nowadays.

It wasn't that long ago when many IPOs were looking to price at around 10%+ ROI, with the more secure offerings going for a couple pts less. As more and more people got into it the price lowered until 6% was a pretty common standard, and I forget who it was but there was an open bond offering 4% which was taken at the time as being the floor on the market. Over time this got pegged down to 3%, with many creative ways of pricing shares (such as auctions) occurring. Then we saw T4U proving extremely successful in raising capital, even tho the payout in the first year was under 2% ROI.

The latest offering along these lines is Rothbard's Casino. With an effective NAV of zero (unless you include the development as being sellable) the ROI is very different to bonds and other IPOs because it is a share of profit and not profit+stock. This makes the true ROI much lower than the 3% advertised - something that RAW pointed out and was ignored upon. Of course what Rothbard did get right was that the true market price is actually what people will pay for it, and there was not shortage of takeup (assuming the thread reports reflect reality, which I have no proof of). It shows that there is a market appetite for even less as shares were resold at a higher value (so an even lower ROI - again assuming it was all genuine).

Even the banks, which are likely never to reappear due to the issues involved, were able to get ISK at a 1% rate. Makes you wonder how low it can actually go - and whether the ability for it to occur is an indicator of the lack of investable opportunities or whether there has been too much ISK poured into the game in the last 2 years.

Tutskii
Posted - 2011.05.23 12:57:00 - [29]
 

Edited by: Tutskii on 23/05/2011 12:58:48
Originally by: Skarii TuThess
Originally by: Mu-Shi Ai
I'm sorry, but a 3% monthly return on an investment of any size just kind of defeats the purpose of investing in the first place, because anybody can take that money and get 3% on it themselves.


Although it is possible to quibble a little over active vs passive income, you have a very good point. One strange feature of IPOs and Bonds is that even though it seems like overall appetite has waned (at least you get that impression from the cynicism) the price has not risen in accordance. This is possibly due to the lack of offerings available so that anything gets jumped on nowadays.

It wasn't that long ago when many IPOs were looking to price at around 10%+ ROI, with the more secure offerings going for a couple pts less. As more and more people got into it the price lowered until 6% was a pretty common standard, and I forget who it was but there was an open bond offering 4% which was taken at the time as being the floor on the market. Over time this got pegged down to 3%, with many creative ways of pricing shares (such as auctions) occurring. Then we saw T4U proving extremely successful in raising capital, even tho the payout in the first year was under 2% ROI.

The latest offering along these lines is Rothbard's Casino. With an effective NAV of zero (unless you include the development as being sellable) the ROI is very different to bonds and other IPOs because it is a share of profit and not profit+stock. This makes the true ROI much lower than the 3% advertised - something that RAW pointed out and was ignored upon. Of course what Rothbard did get right was that the true market price is actually what people will pay for it, and there was not shortage of takeup (assuming the thread reports reflect reality, which I have no proof of). It shows that there is a market appetite for even less as shares were resold at a higher value (so an even lower ROI - again assuming it was all genuine).

Even the banks, which are likely never to reappear due to the issues involved, were able to get ISK at a 1% rate. Makes you wonder how low it can actually go - and whether the ability for it to occur is an indicator of the lack of investable opportunities or whether there has been too much ISK poured into the game in the last 2 years.


My two cents:

There really aren't a lot of investment opportunities where you can be sure or even reasonably certain that you will get your money back. Thus those get jumped on and fill fast. 4% a month on 10 b is someone's monthly plex at absolutely no effort.

And to be honest, 4% is a lot more than 0, which is what you would get with the money sitting idle in your wallet. It comes down to a risk vs reward scenario, like everything in EVE, I suppose.

Notice that lately, 10%+ bonds are being quickly passed over with barely a second glance. This is not because the money isn't there, because it is, but because the investing philosophy is fundamentally different. Risking anything on a new person who doesn't give all the answers up front has become unacceptable, and the collateral requested otherwise is in many cases ridiculous: 110% worth of junk to be held by someone else only makes sense if you are doing invention and have a BPO stable.

Yes, there was the situation with PI and Tech, no, its not the norm, no, average people don't have collateral (I still don't for instance, and prolly never will!). But collateral or GTFO has killed the new people who (I am hoping) were in at least some cases legit. And with no offerings, you take what you can. You want 10% or so? a bond offering paying that continues to sit mostly empty (I make no judgement on the legitimacy or scam potential of the bond, I just mention it for arguments sake).

Even if someone was insane enough to give the 300% someone mentioned, he would be laughed out as a scammer, or as an idiot (perhaps correctly!).

And thus, the current %.

Mu-Shi Ai
The Chrysalis Group
Posted - 2011.05.23 13:24:00 - [30]
 

Edited by: Mu-Shi Ai on 23/05/2011 13:25:30
Originally by: Tutskii
4% a month on 10 b is someone's monthly plex at absolutely no effort.


But it begs the question: why does somebody who has 10b ISK to chuck down on a bond at 4% per month have to worry about funding PLEX in the first place? And how can he/she be so silly as to imagine that the potential theft of said 10b ISK is worth having a 100% passive PLEX each month? With that kind of bankroll, you could make a simple trade alt on an existing account who'd be able to churn out a PLEX and more for you with almost no effort involved. Check orders every couple days. Not a big deal. And you don't have to worry about somebody running off with your 10b in the process. I find it difficult to believe that a person in that position is not prepared to put such a system in motion already.

Quote:
And to be honest, 4% is a lot more than 0, which is what you would get with the money sitting idle in your wallet. It comes down to a risk vs reward scenario, like everything in EVE, I suppose.


How long would it take for you to roll over that 10b at 4%? In that period of time, what are the odds that the guy will run off with it? Will you make at least your 10b back in interest before the theft happens? Highly doubtful. You probably won't even make it back in interest before the bond expires and you're paid back. Some people have run perpetual bonds, but a lot of bonds are relatively short-term. You're handing out 10b ISK on the promise of maybe two or three months at 4% interest. Is that interest worth the possibility that your 10b might be pilfered? Not by any rational measure. If somebody asked which one you'd most like to have, 1.2b or 10b, which would you choose?

Quote:
Even if someone was insane enough to give the 300% someone mentioned, he would be laughed out as a scammer, or as an idiot (perhaps correctly!).


That's the thing. I'm not talking 300% on a 10b investment. I'm talking 300% on maybe a 50m investment. The major problem with ginormous bonds is that while they, generally speaking, offer a major opportunity for the bond-runner to make amazing profits (whether it's a scam or not), they usually do not offer the investors anything more than a roleplaying opportunity. Any way you look at it, the risks inherent in the average large bond far outweigh the actual financial benefits of participating. You get relatively paltry returns for the amount you invest, typically not for a very long period of time, assuming the guy doesn't run off with the money. The benefits are too much on the side of the bond-runner and too little on the side of the investor. This imbalance not only makes it a bad move to invest, but is part of what invites scamming to begin with.

In fact, I'd be willing to argue that a lot of the reason why people invest in bonds is not because they think it's a particularly sound investment, but because there's a (perhaps subconscious) rush in doling out major sums of ISK and kind of "rolling the dice" on whether they'll be scammed or not. Also, I think a lot of people who invest in these big bonds just like to be seen throwing billions of ISK around. It cements them as "successful" market types on this board and elsewhere.


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