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LHA Tarawa
Posted - 2011.04.04 20:06:00 - [1]
 

In the latest quartely economic report (http://www.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&bid=892) there is this little nugget.

"the Central Bank might intervene in the PLEX market in order to curb inflation or avoid sudden deflation in the EVE economy."

So, what does that mean?

If I buy a PLEX with real and sell it in game for ISK, what I have done is pay for someone else to play. What they have done is grind ISK for me and traded that ISK for free game time.

There is a balance in that every ISK bought with real money is going to fund the play time of someone. More people trying to play for free than people willing to spend real money for ISK, and price of PLEX goes up. More people trying to convert real to ISK than are looking to play for free, and price of PLEX goes down.

Now CCP says they may step in and destroy this balance?

So... hmmm... maybe people buy PLEX with real money, then CCP buys it for ISK that no one did the grind work to create... CCP gets paid for time no one actually uses.

How long after that until they start intentionally decreasing the ISK generating capabilities of certain activities, so that buying PLEX rather than rat bounties becomes the primary source of new ISK into the game?

I think that CCP was blocked in their first attempt to intorduce micro transactions by the last CSM that got CCP to back off from the PLEX for remap.

Buying and selling PLEX directly (more likely selling IMO) could be their new attempt at a first step down the very slippery slope of micro transactions.

Want a new carrier? Instead of paying for someone else to play for free for 3 months so that person can mine the minerals needed to build a carrier, maybe you'll just hand CCP $45 and a carrier appears in your hanger....

BoBoZoBo
MGroup9
Posted - 2011.04.04 20:25:00 - [2]
 

Edited by: BoBoZoBo on 04/04/2011 20:25:09
Originally by: LHA Tarawa
Want a new carrier? Instead of paying for someone else to play for free for 3 months so that person can mine the minerals needed to build a carrier, maybe you'll just hand CCP $45 and a carrier appears in your hanger....


Im pretty sure thats going on already

But you have a valid concern about the artificial regulation of the PLEXs, which are in-turn already artificial due to bots/marcos and the such (actually the whole idea in general of buying virtual ISK for actual money).

The only real solution - Kill PLEX, but good luck with that. This is kind of like the economic "crisis" in the U.S. same mistakes... same solutions...

mkmin
Posted - 2011.04.04 20:39:00 - [3]
 

What makes you think CCP's going to pay isk for the PLEXes they remove? No, they are more likely to add an expiration date to PLEXes to wipe out any stockpiles accumulated, reducing the available supply (there are a lot of PLEXes stockpiled.) They've already set the precedent that PLEX is an in-game item owned fully by CCP with no obligations for them to fill. It's not theft if it's done by an overseas corporation.

Consider how this ties in to the anom changes. Smaller groups will no longer have the isk to fund PVP campaigns, which means sell more plex. CCPs best strategy is to remove plex without paying isk for them. They are destroying thousands of dollars (hundreds of thousands? millions?) worth of player isk, time, and effort with some lie about promoting PVP. Why would they not do the same with PLEX with some lie about balancing the economy?

dexington
Caldari
Baconoration
Posted - 2011.04.04 20:49:00 - [4]
 

Originally by: mkmin
No, they are more likely to add an expiration date to PLEXes to wipe out any stockpiles accumulated, reducing the available supply (there are a lot of PLEXes stockpiled.)


The would just flood the market with even more PLEX, making the PLEX worth less. The in-game and out-game value of plex is not balanced, as long as it is possible to buy illegal isk CCP needs to make sure PLEX is a valid option for the people who are looking to buy isk. I can understand if CCP has an interest in making sure the PLEX has a minimun value.

mkmin
Posted - 2011.04.04 20:57:00 - [5]
 

Originally by: dexington
Originally by: mkmin
No, they are more likely to add an expiration date to PLEXes to wipe out any stockpiles accumulated, reducing the available supply (there are a lot of PLEXes stockpiled.)


The would just flood the market with even more PLEX, making the PLEX worth less. The in-game and out-game value of plex is not balanced, as long as it is possible to buy illegal isk CCP needs to make sure PLEX is a valid option for the people who are looking to buy isk. I can understand if CCP has an interest in making sure the PLEX has a minimun value.

The key thing about supply and demand is that by reducing supply, and raising demand, prices go up. Destroying PLEXes reduce supply driving prices up, which drives up sales as people with $ will get more isk for their buck making it more attractive. In a closed system, where you have only one inflow ($->PLEX) and only one real outflow (PLEX->time), if the inflow and outflow do not roughly match, the price will be pushed steadily up or down. Adding another outflow (PLEX->expiration) means the price will go up until people start spending more $ to stabilize it.

Seriously, look at everything CCP is doing from the point of view of getting more $ into CCPs pockets and it all makes perfect sense. They'll screw over anyone for $.

Karl Planck
Labyrinth Obtaining Chaotic Kangaroos
Posted - 2011.04.04 20:57:00 - [6]
 

Edited by: Karl Planck on 04/04/2011 20:59:51
Edited by: Karl Planck on 04/04/2011 20:57:31
When he talks about intervening I am almost sure that is what they meant (agreeing with the edit* dexington's post). PLEX has been increasing in popularity. With the drop of RMT'ers that they expect to see in the coming months its going to affect the PLEX market by making it cheap. In order for you to get something for your $17 they will keep plex at a minimum value. And considering its EVE bank, I am sure they will release them back into the market over time as well

Edit #2: Mkmin you know you are just butthurt about your 0.0 plexes. Didn't you rage enough about this in previous threads? (rhetorical question)

stoicfaux
Gallente
Posted - 2011.04.04 21:02:00 - [7]
 

Jita PLEX volume is about 2,000 a day. If we assume that just 1,000 of those are new PLEX (bought from a GTC) that's 1,000 * 17.5 USD * 365 days = 6.4 million USD a year in PLEX purchases. Which might be on the low side.

Or to put it another way, 1,000 plex a day for 30 days represents 30,000 monthly subscriptions. Supposedly Eve has 300,000+ active subscriptions. PLEX could represent ~10% of the active subscription base.

That's a non-trivial amount of income for CCP. I can see CCP as wanting to exert some control over PLEX income. Especially if a lot of the PLEX comes from a few "whales."


cyndrogen
Posted - 2011.04.04 21:10:00 - [8]
 

I think plex should be in the hands of NPC corps.

People who buy plex with real money can redeem LP points and trade in LP for faction gear, use the gear or sell it on market,
People who wish to buy in game plex redeem with LP points given through agent LP rewards.

This would ensure that the price of plex does not fluctuate.




Nuniki
Percussive Diplomacy
Posted - 2011.04.04 21:15:00 - [9]
 

Probably the only reason I am okay with PLEX and people technically 'buying isk' is that it's mostly (other then bots, yeah--I went there) a player controlled price. As stated earlier, if more people and trying to play off their isk, the price will rise. Supply and demand.

LHA Tarawa
Posted - 2011.04.04 21:20:00 - [10]
 

Edited by: LHA Tarawa on 04/04/2011 21:23:06
Originally by: Nuniki
Probably the only reason I am okay with PLEX and people technically 'buying isk' is that it's mostly (other then bots, yeah--I went there) a player controlled price. As stated earlier, if more people and trying to play off their isk, the price will rise. Supply and demand.



I agree.

I could find someone in Russia that wants to play EVE and say, "Hey, I'll pay for you to play, as long as you grind 300 million ISK a month and give it to me."

PLEX is a way of doing that with CCP acting as the middle man.

What I do not want is something like... "you want a Nyx BPO? Okay, send CCP an extra $75 from which no one is getting to play for free, and CCP will transfer the BPO into your hanger."

PLEX being player driven is the former (person that bought the PLEX with real money is paying for the game time of the person that bought it with ISK) and PLEX being bought by Bank of EVE is the latter (You just handing CCP extra cash and they hand you ISK).

dexington
Caldari
Baconoration
Posted - 2011.04.04 21:24:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: mkmin
The key thing about supply and demand is that by reducing supply, and raising demand, prices go up. Destroying PLEXes reduce supply driving prices up, which drives up sales as people with $ will get more isk for their buck making it more attractive. In a closed system, where you have only one inflow ($->PLEX) and only one real outflow (PLEX->time), if the inflow and outflow do not roughly match, the price will be pushed steadily up or down. Adding another outflow (PLEX->expiration) means the price will go up until people start spending more $ to stabilize it.

Seriously, look at everything CCP is doing from the point of view of getting more $ into CCPs pockets and it all makes perfect sense. They'll screw over anyone for $.


If you only look a plex as usable for game time, adding a expiration would just lower the demand. Eg. if the expiration as 3 months it would not make sense to own more then 3 plex at anytime, even if the price got low it would not make sense to buy more if you already owned 3.

If the inflow of plex is larger then the amount used, prices are just going to keep dropping until people stop buying PLEX, if people stop buying PLEX that means they are buying isk elsewhere. You can add an unlimited amount of PLEX to the game, but it only makes sense for each character to use one each month, you can't be sure that normal supply and demand rules are going to keep the PLEX at a value where is worth it to trade it for isk.

LHA Tarawa
Posted - 2011.04.04 22:25:00 - [12]
 

Originally by: dexington
If the inflow of plex is larger then the amount used, prices are just going to keep dropping until people stop buying PLEX, if people stop buying PLEX that means they are buying isk elsewhere. You can add an unlimited amount of PLEX to the game, but it only makes sense for each character to use one each month, you can't be sure that normal supply and demand rules are going to keep the PLEX at a value where is worth it to trade it for isk.


I think you miss the flip side... demand. I currently an running a few accounts(okay, okay 6 accounts). I pay with real because I have other things I want to do with 1.8 billion ISK a month. If PLEX dropped from 300 million to 200 million. Okay, I may keep paying for some of my aco****s, but the others I'd just PLEX. If PLEX dropped to 100 million ISK... well, then I wouldn't pay real for any of my accounts. I'd let PLEX buyers pay for my 6 accounts.

OMG!!!! Am I really running 6 accounts? How did this happen? Oh the slippery slope.

rock crawlermne
Posted - 2011.04.04 22:45:00 - [13]
 

has anyone seen my tinfoil hat?

dexington
Caldari
Baconoration
Posted - 2011.04.04 22:53:00 - [14]
 

Edited by: dexington on 04/04/2011 22:53:38
Originally by: LHA Tarawa
I think you miss the flip side... demand. I currently an running a few accounts(okay, okay 6 accounts). I pay with real because I have other things I want to do with 1.8 billion ISK a month. If PLEX dropped from 300 million to 200 million. Okay, I may keep paying for some of my aco****s, but the others I'd just PLEX. If PLEX dropped to 100 million ISK... well, then I wouldn't pay real for any of my accounts. I'd let PLEX buyers pay for my 6 accounts.


The more the price drops, the less attractive it is to use PLEX when buying isk. The system only works if the isk/$ ration is attractive for the person selling the PLEX, when there is real money involved people are going to look for the best offer, and if illegal RMT sites can offer five times cheaper isk more people are going to buy isk that way.

It's better for CCP to set an artificial price limit for PLEX, when having the amount of money traded on illegal RMT sites outside then game balance the price of PLEX.

Steve Thomas
Minmatar
Sebiestor Tribe
Posted - 2011.04.05 01:11:00 - [15]
 

this is probably one of thoes "last resort" deals. the last thing they want to do is dump in Plex into the market only to have the next Charity drive remove said plex from the game. (they might "remove" plex by buying up plex to suport a given price)

Typhado3
Minmatar
Posted - 2011.04.05 09:29:00 - [16]
 

Edited by: Typhado3 on 05/04/2011 09:30:34
Originally by: EVE QEN p6-7
With a growing PLEX market (PLEX is the item with the highest trade value on the EVE market on any given day) and its function of facilitating the exchange of game time for ISK, players have become concerned about PLEX prices. PLEX is sold on an open market in a free exchange between players, just like most other items in EVE Online. Our core design principle of being hands-off from these markets also applies to the PLEX market. However, due to its complex function and potential impact on the velocity of money supply, the Central Bank might intervene in the PLEX market in order to curb inflation or avoid sudden deflation in the EVE economy. All such action would not be announced beforehand and only limited information would become public in the quarter after actions have been taken. These actions would aim at stabilization of the PLEX market and do not have a specific price target for PLEX or a specific inflation target for prices in EVE.


It seems they are attempting to keep the prices of subscription stable... chaos is something that should be rejoiced in eve. This also gives a rather large hit to the credibility of the whole "You can't just mass buy GTC and make trillions of isk as you'd crash the market" CCP are in place to stop that?

I think someone in game design/CSM needs to go to Dr. Eyjog and tell how much of a very very bad thing directly selling isk for cash is. The very few arguable good points are outweighed by this massive bad point.



FAKE EDIT: Of course with way things are going they may actually want eve to be more of a pay to win game. In which case "adapt or die".

Antihrist Pripravnik
Scorpion Road Industry
Posted - 2011.04.05 09:38:00 - [17]
 

Edited by: Antihrist Pripravnik on 05/04/2011 09:39:46
Originally by: LHA Tarawa

How long after that until they start intentionally decreasing the ISK generating capabilities of certain activities, so that buying PLEX rather than rat bounties becomes the primary source of new ISK into the game?


It has already started (well, technically, it'll start after tomorrow's patch):

http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1487231

93 pages with the vast majority of the negative replies, but they are still going to do it.


Cipher Jones
Minmatar
Posted - 2011.04.05 10:25:00 - [18]
 

clearly apples equal oranges for all intents and purposes.


Mara Rinn
Posted - 2011.04.05 10:52:00 - [19]
 

Perhaps CCP are putting measures in place to limit the number of PLEX one account can sell, or that can be visible on the market overall?

If they're going to start cracking down on RMT, and some of those RMT sites have invested in PLEX, I wouldn't be surprised to see the RMT dealers intentionally flooding the market with PLEX in order to spoil the PLEX-for-ISK trade.

I pay for my accounts with ISK-bought PLEX. I'm happy when the price goes up, because that means some other player is getting value for money. Sure, I have less to spend on my own play, but that's why I'm exploring more and more ways of making ISK within the game. Spreadsheets in space is lots of fun :)

Brooks Puuntai
Minmatar
Nomadic Asylum
Posted - 2011.04.05 11:19:00 - [20]
 

If my memory serves me right CCP use to do this with minerals aswell.

Internetz Spaceship
Posted - 2011.04.05 11:40:00 - [21]
 

Originally by: LHA Tarawa
In the latest quartely economic report (http://www.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&bid=892) there is this little nugget.

"the Central Bank might intervene in the PLEX market in order to curb inflation or avoid sudden deflation in the EVE economy."

So, what does that mean?

If I buy a PLEX with real and sell it in game for ISK, what I have done is pay for someone else to play. What they have done is grind ISK for me and traded that ISK for free game time.

There is a balance in that every ISK bought with real money is going to fund the play time of someone. More people trying to play for free than people willing to spend real money for ISK, and price of PLEX goes up. More people trying to convert real to ISK than are looking to play for free, and price of PLEX goes down.

Now CCP says they may step in and destroy this balance?

So... hmmm... maybe people buy PLEX with real money, then CCP buys it for ISK that no one did the grind work to create... CCP gets paid for time no one actually uses.

How long after that until they start intentionally decreasing the ISK generating capabilities of certain activities, so that buying PLEX rather than rat bounties becomes the primary source of new ISK into the game?

I think that CCP was blocked in their first attempt to intorduce micro transactions by the last CSM that got CCP to back off from the PLEX for remap.

Buying and selling PLEX directly (more likely selling IMO) could be their new attempt at a first step down the very slippery slope of micro transactions.

Want a new carrier? Instead of paying for someone else to play for free for 3 months so that person can mine the minerals needed to build a carrier, maybe you'll just hand CCP $45 and a carrier appears in your hanger....

You have too much free time. Stop posting hysterical argumentations about inconsequential aspects of this game based on your own delusional thoughts.

Key words are: "may", "curve inflation" and "avoid deflation".

Malcanis
Caldari
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
Posted - 2011.04.05 11:41:00 - [22]
 

Originally by: Antihrist Pripravnik
Edited by: Antihrist Pripravnik on 05/04/2011 09:39:46
Originally by: LHA Tarawa

How long after that until they start intentionally decreasing the ISK generating capabilities of certain activities, so that buying PLEX rather than rat bounties becomes the primary source of new ISK into the game?


It has already started (well, technically, it'll start after tomorrow's patch):

http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1487231

93 pages with the vast majority of the negative replies, but they are still going to do it.




Yeah then it'll be like it was in 2009 when the only way to get any ISK was by selling PLEX, oh wait no, actually you're both lying.

Grimpak
Gallente
Midnight Elites
Echelon Rising
Posted - 2011.04.05 12:07:00 - [23]
 

Originally by: Cipher Jones
clearly apples equal oranges for all intents and purposes.


no no no.


it's coconuts and bananas.

Burkhashan
Posted - 2011.04.05 13:20:00 - [24]
 

The way I would try to manipulate PLEX were I CCP:

If the PLEX drops below - let's say 250m - set a huge buyorder at that price. -> other guys will have to adjust their buyorders upwards or have to wait till the "Bank's" order is filled.

Stockpile the PLEX.

PLEX rises above their upper limit - let's say 450m - CCP sets a sellorder at that Price with the stockpiled PLEX from earlier.
-> 2 things that could happen:
1. CCPs stockpile gets bought out -> good for the economy because stockpile*(450m-250m) ISK just got sunk
2. Prices adjust downward -> mission accomplished

Grog Barrel
Posted - 2011.04.05 17:42:00 - [25]
 

Originally by: Burkhashan
The way I would try to manipulate PLEX were I CCP:

If the PLEX drops below - let's say 250m - set a huge buyorder at that price. -> other guys will have to adjust their buyorders upwards or have to wait till the "Bank's" order is filled.

Stockpile the PLEX.

PLEX rises above their upper limit - let's say 450m - CCP sets a sellorder at that Price with the stockpiled PLEX from earlier.
-> 2 things that could happen:
1. CCPs stockpile gets bought out -> good for the economy because stockpile*(450m-250m) ISK just got sunk
2. Prices adjust downward -> mission accomplished


WELCOME to the only game in the world, where the economy is player driven!... oh wait!

Pserad Pserad
Posted - 2011.04.05 19:16:00 - [26]
 

Originally by: Grog Barrel
Originally by: Burkhashan
The way I would try to manipulate PLEX were I CCP:

If the PLEX drops below - let's say 250m - set a huge buyorder at that price. -> other guys will have to adjust their buyorders upwards or have to wait till the "Bank's" order is filled.

Stockpile the PLEX.

PLEX rises above their upper limit - let's say 450m - CCP sets a sellorder at that Price with the stockpiled PLEX from earlier.
-> 2 things that could happen:
1. CCPs stockpile gets bought out -> good for the economy because stockpile*(450m-250m) ISK just got sunk
2. Prices adjust downward -> mission accomplished


WELCOME to the only game in the world, where the economy is player driven!... oh wait!


The economy is influenced by players, but it's completely arbitrary otherwise. There is no limit to the amount of ISK available, since you could theoretically steal every single ISK from every player in the game somehow, and they could just get more with missioning, exploring, or ratting. Likewise, resources are unlimited in this game, since you could theoretically stockpile every single ship, ore, material and module, plus mine the asteroids completely clean on every single belt in the game, and somebody could just go get more from a mission or explore site, or just by waiting until the next downtime.

Like real-world economies, the EVE marketplace will always favor those who already have a large amount of wealth, and disfavor those who are living paycheck-to-paycheck, or mission to mission. But the potential to strike it rich by completely ignoring the EVE economy is within anybody's grasp given enough time, persistence, and maybe a little luck. All the while though, everybody's converting their real-world cash into EVE-bucks, whether from buying PLEX or just consuming paid playing time.

So the only real measure of whether you are successful in EVE is whether you can be prosperous without it completely ruining your real life. I suspect the most successful EVE players crossed over that line long ago, and can only imagine the cardboard boxes they are living out of, trying to steal WiFi from the coffee shops across the street as they play from filthy rags.

Jennifer Starling
Imperial Navy Forum Patrol
Posted - 2011.04.05 19:35:00 - [27]
 

Edited by: Jennifer Starling on 05/04/2011 19:37:17

Whenever CCP buys a plex off the market, they earn $17.50
Whenever CCP generates a plex to sell on the market, they lose $15.00

What would you do as company?

Palovana
Caldari
Inner Fire Inc.
Posted - 2011.04.05 19:45:00 - [28]
 

Originally by: mkmin
What makes you think CCP's going to pay isk for the PLEXes they remove? No, they are more likely to add an expiration date to PLEXes to wipe out any stockpiles accumulated, reducing the available supply (there are a lot of PLEXes stockpiled.)


Adding expiration dates would be a big middle finger to those who trade in PLEX, e.g. buying at 320M and selling at 350M (numbers just pulled out of my arse).

They wouldn't do this with other items (tritanium, etc) which are traded as commodities (at far lower profit per unit) so why should PLEX be special in this regard?

I don't see how feasible it is to assign an expiration date to a PLEX, it's a unique attribute that would have to stay with the PLEX. They are stackable just like any other item, and stacking them would strip them of the unique expiration date attribute as stacking turns a group of objects into a single object.


 

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