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Atima
Minmatar
House of Marbles
Posted - 2011.03.26 03:39:00 - [31]
 

Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Quote:


It changes the isk supply, for a start, by creating isk out of thing air. Secondly, this artificial change to supply/demand will have a temporary effect, hence my comment that they'd have to take part in a massive market manipulation going on over a long period of time. Throwing a few billion isk at it wont effect the price for more than an hour, throwing tens of billions wont change it for more than a day or two, get the picture now how CCP intervention isn't so simple or has no side-effects?


Small incursions over a period of time has great effect in any economy. Just look at history.

All ISK is created out of thin air. It's called Mission Agent's and Bounties. CCP going .addisk CCPmarketer 1,000,000,000,000,000,000, then buying half the market up isn't going to change much in the way of ISK itself. That ISK would make it into game eventually anyway.

The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).

ISK has no value in Game and whether more is created by CCP in any quantity would never imbalance the game or ISK creatd by players every day.

That's why CCP would use this strategy over any other. It's less Noticibal.. and less messy although more complicated. Also to change an economy it takes time, Short spikes will never work, however long term intervention on this level would.

I mean Honestly.. would you rather buy a plex for 400 million? Or for 280 Million. I think the answer is obvious. So CCP will put the High plex sellers out of Business. Unless they Conform to CCP's seed prices.

Another way to do this would simply be to have NPC stations sell plexes at a set value. Then in order for a player to make any money from the plex he would have to price it lower then the NPC stations.



I'm beginning to think that this guy is special.

Lets hope they don't stay around to long.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.03.26 03:59:00 - [32]
 

Originally by: Alice Celadon
[...]When Incarna tanks hard, owing to an abysmal lack of gameplay content and an oversupply of silly fluff, CCP is going to react strongly by coupling existing EVE Markets to avatar-based gameplay.
In other words, look for CCP to make it logistically impossible to ignore the new avatar environments by pressuring the only place in EVE that responds to CCP pressure -- the markets. Do not be surprised when you have to physcially walk your character past clothing stores and gambling dens in order to reprocess your meta2 mods.

Or, they could add something that everybody wants, something that might actually make some degree of RP sense...
...STOREFRONTS.
We all (hopefully) know what they are, and why they would be a good idea, but also why it would be a bad idea to have them searchable from "regular EVE" or interface with the market directly in any way.

I'd call that a win-win situation.

Cetus Perle Rote
Posted - 2011.03.26 04:01:00 - [33]
 

100 trillion isk = 50000 players pulling 2bn a day from faucets. I'd say maybe 100 billion a day, maybe a bit more.

Hieronimus Rex
Minmatar
Infinitus Sapientia
Hav0k.
Posted - 2011.03.26 06:28:00 - [34]
 

Originally by: Cetus Perle Rote
100 trillion isk = 50000 players pulling 2bn a day from faucets. I'd say maybe 100 billion a day, maybe a bit more.


Your use of logic has no place on MD Very Happy

clixoras
Posted - 2011.03.26 10:13:00 - [35]
 

First of all, CCP already intervenes with the markets by adjusting drop rates / insurances etc.

The 'problem' with the PLEX market is that it's heavily manipulated. I would dare to say that all spikes of the past year where due to manipulation (most of them confirmed by the parties doing so).

Second, stop pretending EVE's economy is real one, rich players generally sit on their isk while in RL they would invest or put it in a bank where it's invested for them.

If you want to improve circulation of isk, look at ways that the fatcats can invest safely into corps. Corps would put the isk to work and with the profit they would be able to buy PLEXES.

The Breadmaster
Posted - 2011.03.26 12:04:00 - [36]
 

Greetings,

There is a lot of fancy debate in this thread, but why CCP would
wish to regulate the price of PLEX is rather simple:

High ISK / plex = more players RMT plex to flip into isk, while
fewer players RMT plex to keep accounts active.

Low ISK / plex = fewer players RMT plex to flip into isk, while
more players RMT plex to keep accounts active.

Whatever price point CCP wants to maintain PLEX will always be relative to
the "cost of living" in game.

Furthermore, the above relationship is a strong incentive for CCP to oscillate
the ISK price of plex relative to this "cost of living" in game. There are a
lot of cute/underhanded ways CCP could achieve this... EVE is their playground
afterall.

Smile
Bread

Scott Ryder
Amarr
Ministry of War
Posted - 2011.03.26 12:50:00 - [37]
 

Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Quote:

The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway.


Indeed, you sir are correct

Caldariftw123
Posted - 2011.03.26 12:53:00 - [38]
 

Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 26/03/2011 12:53:06
Originally by: Scott Ryder
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt

The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway.


Indeed, you sir are correct


More like ~1 trillion, after sinks.

Mister Rocknrolla
Posted - 2011.03.26 14:19:00 - [39]
 

Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Cetus Perle Rote
Actually CCP gains nothing from subscriptions activated via PLEX, once that GTC is bought they made their money already.


This forum has gone down this road before, the fact is we don't know how CCP accounts for PLEXES. If they look at them like gift cards in which they need to keep them on the books until they are consumed, a PLEX in game is a liability.

There is a lot of theories about how CCP looks at PLEXES, I believe they view them as some sort of "Bad" mark on their books. That's why they have these "PLEX FOR < insert natural disaster here>" drives and "Come to Fan Fest with PLEXES!"

It's not unreasonable to believe the amount of PLEXes in game and used per month adjusts the books. So a massive decrease in PLEXes makes their books look better, because they've removed liability. Like I said, it all depends on how CCP looks/records PLEXES. I tend to lean toward CCP keeping Financial standard bookkeep practices in which they would have to record each unused PLEX in game as a liability. But that's just me and few others Laughing

The other theory that once they have the cash they record it as profit and don't care about the sheer amount of PLEXES in game is acceptable as well, but I personally don't like it.



And what about the 'next' step? For what reason would a corporation what to adjust it's liabilities and make it's books look better?

I suspect an even bigger announcement coming from CCP before the end of summer.

People who step back and look at a lot of the OOG activity will connect the dots.

Dirk Decibel
Posted - 2011.03.26 15:03:00 - [40]
 

Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
They're already intervening in the PLEX market... Just look at the PLEX-for-aid campaigns.


Any additional use for PLEX other than gametime could be considered intervening indeed. Like paying for PLEX for fanfest and for HD live streams of that same fanfest drives demand up and most likely prices.

Malcorian Vandsteidt
Posted - 2011.03.26 19:52:00 - [41]
 

Originally by: Selene D'Celeste
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt

The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).



Try talking out of your ass less. You're off by two orders of magnitude.


Yea as if you knew, If your not a CCP dev then your talking out of your ass also so stop being a hypcrit. The point is the isk created every day is more then the ammount needed to do what I am talking about.


Caldariftw123
Posted - 2011.03.26 20:08:00 - [42]
 

Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Originally by: Selene D'Celeste
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt

The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).



Try talking out of your ass less. You're off by two orders of magnitude.


Yea as if you knew, If your not a CCP dev then your talking out of your ass also so stop being a hypcrit. The point is the isk created every day is more then the ammount needed to do what I am talking about.




The amount of isk required out of thin air to manipulate the plex market EVERY day is a large enough % of the total daily created isk (which is roughly 1trillion isk) that it would have significant impact on the economy and plex market beyond what you are claiming. PLEX is the single largest market in all of EVE. Not only that but what you are proposing will increase the price in the med-long run of plex because it creates artificial demand, more isk chasing the same number of plexes. You can't simply buy them all and dump on the buy orders to remove them then relist even more plex at a lower price to push the price down day after day after day after day to move the market.

Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
Posted - 2011.03.26 20:25:00 - [43]
 

Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt

Yea as if you knew, If your not a CCP dev then your talking out of your ass also so stop being a hypcrit. The point is the isk created every day is more then the ammount needed to do what I am talking about.





We have been given the data by developers.. at least one 24 hour flash reading to give us a clue on numbers we'd have very little way to estimate within an order of magnitude

Quote:
A freebie, last 24hrs transaction stats for a selection of faucets and sinks - as you can see, Concord is a very generous organisation!


Trade Total
* Market Transaction 5,848,221,406,963
Faucets
* Bounty Prizes 876,039,478,466
* Agent Mission Reward 68,923,141,163
* Agent Mission Time Bonus 63,450,447,585
* Insurance Payouts 111,942,877,603

Sinks
* Sales Tax 6,227,911,218
* Brokers fee 6,733,818,276
* PI Construction Costs 7,575,185,000
* PI Import Tax 290,289,843
* PI Export Tax 3,355,153,925
* Insurance Cost 43,021,823,156
* Clone Activation 20,197,210,000
* Sovereignty Bill 59,332,000,000
* LP Store 135,343,150,000

Note - that is only a snapshot of some of the stats, others like NPC orders are not there and such. Consider this a freebie until a future QEN and no, we won't provide more or derail the blog!



dev post



Someone above echoed my main point the RMT is the tail that wags the dog on the value of plex and CCP 's concern.

RMT creates all sorts of huge problems for the game balance (more non players playing the game among other things), customer service (increased hassles do to incentive for key loggers to steal as), and at some point and to some degree potential issues for international banking laws which they would like to cast in the best light as possible by making isk in game worth the ablity for players to control extra characters, or play for free, not to recieve RL cash.

A stable exchange rate will also tend to maximize volume by increasing the comfort level of cash purchasers of gtc/plex and incremental revenue doesn't hurt them either.

Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
Posted - 2011.03.26 20:54:00 - [44]
 

Edited by: Diomedes Calypso on 26/03/2011 20:55:01
In the past I did my best guess using plex volume data from the forge and QEN data to try to come up with an order of magnitude sort of number for the amount of Plex sold by GTC buyers and sold for isk.

past wall of text of mine

Its a really rough number but if you read my reasoning I think its in the order of 500 billion isk bought by players with real $ through ccp meands. It could be twice or half that but in that genral range of magnitude.

It is an important number relative to the faucets and sinks we were presented in the referenced dev post above.... a huge factor that could really warp game play should some temporary impmact of a game mechanic (or a few instituted simaltaneusly ((ending datacores and vastly reducing botting in a fell swoop ??)). Even if the market could likely correct the exchnge rate over time.. a jar of that order would be like a few Japan earthquakes happening simaltaneusly throughout the world... even free marketers would support some intervetion to calm the markets.

Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
Posted - 2011.03.26 21:10:00 - [45]
 

Originally by: The Breadmaster
Greetings,

There is a lot of fancy debate in this thread, but why CCP would
wish to regulate the price of PLEX is rather simple:

High ISK / plex = more players RMT plex to flip into isk, while
fewer players RMT plex to keep accounts active.

Low ISK / plex = fewer players RMT plex to flip into isk, while
more players RMT plex to keep accounts active.

Whatever price point CCP wants to maintain PLEX will always be relative to
the "cost of living" in game.

Furthermore, the above relationship is a strong incentive for CCP to oscillate
the ISK price of plex relative to this "cost of living" in game. There are a
lot of cute/underhanded ways CCP could achieve this... EVE is their playground
afterall.

Smile
Bread


I think you put some of my main points in a way people could better understand

Voogru
Gallente
Massive Damage
We Are John Galt
Posted - 2011.03.26 23:42:00 - [46]
 

Edited by: Voogru on 26/03/2011 23:48:27
Originally by: Adunh Slavy
I would like to know if Doc E prefers the Austrian School or the Keynesian School. If we can get an answer to that, I suspect we'll know more of his thoughts. However, such a decision, intervention, may not be his to make, and he has simply stated a concern given to him.


The Austrian school requires a hard money, or rather, no money printing by a central government at all. EVE's currency is a debt free currency (meaning we don't pay interest on our money supply like everyone does in the real world).

For a better explanation, watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkq2E8mswI

I am personally fairly Austrian in my views. I recently changed my stance on monetary issues though in favor of a debt free currency rather than a metalic standard. The reason for that is simple, the people who control our current money supply also control the metal, so we're right back into the same mess.

While EVE has ISK faucets, the faucets do not give out ISK unless an activity is performed, meaning money is not given to players who are idle. Also, the inflation from bounties is somewhat countered by loot drops, when you kill Estamel and it drops an Estamel Invulnerablity field, there is now a product for ISK to chase.

When you increase the supply of ISK and the supply of products increase in EVE, prices remain stable. If suddenly more ISK is created than products, prices start to rise because you have more ISK chasing after fewer products.

Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
Posted - 2011.03.27 06:42:00 - [47]
 

Edited by: Alain Kinsella on 27/03/2011 06:58:03
Originally by: Caldariftw123
The amount of isk required out of thin air to manipulate the plex market EVERY day is a large enough % of the total daily created isk (which is roughly 1trillion isk) that it would have significant impact on the economy and plex market beyond what you are claiming. PLEX is the single largest market in all of EVE. Not only that but what you are proposing will increase the price in the med-long run of plex because it creates artificial demand, more isk chasing the same number of plexes. You can't simply buy them all and dump on the buy orders to remove them then relist even more plex at a lower price to push the price down day after day after day after day to move the market.


Two possible (and relatively 'free') sources of PLEX that CCP has:

-> PLEX destroyed in combat (shady, but would explain why they don't want to release this number)

-> PLEX confiscated from banned accounts (I think this is more likely)


Edit - There is also the possibility of simply pulling PLEX/GTC out of thin air, instead of ISK (moving it to a temporary RL expense until 'real' GTC sales fill the gap). I would consider this as a 'Last Resort' option though.

Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
Posted - 2011.03.27 13:41:00 - [48]
 

Edited by: Adunh Slavy on 27/03/2011 13:43:04
Originally by: Voogru

Originally by: Adunh Slavy

... Austrian School or the Keynesian School ...



The Austrian school requires a hard money, or rather, no money printing by a central government at all. EVE's currency is a debt free currency ...


Quite true, however my question was more aimed at intervention. Keynesians being quite happy to screw things up, Austrians being happy to let the market decide.

As for your comments on Real World Monetary systems, we see the same way. Gold supply manipulations and the Silver/Gold wars of the 1700s and 1800s clearly show hard money isn't free from manipulations. Not to mention, the ridges on coins exist for a reason.

Ah yeah, Secret of OZ is a good movie.

Here's a blog about some of that sort of thing,
http://diagonalme.blogspot.com/2011/03/how-to-solve-state-debts-is-in-congress.html

Support HR 1098! :)

Ludacrys
Posted - 2011.03.27 18:50:00 - [49]
 

Plex price is low > more people buy plex for his accounts > price increases
Plex price is high > more people buy plex with RL money to sell > price decreases

If Plex is used in the future for cosmetic reasons its price is going to skyrocket and a lot of people wont be able to afford them to pay their accounts anymore.

Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
Posted - 2011.03.27 18:54:00 - [50]
 

Originally by: Ludacrys

If Plex is used in the future for cosmetic reasons its price is going to skyrocket and a lot of people wont be able to afford them to pay their accounts anymore.


When I was a kid we had to pay RL money for our accounts, there was no skill queue, and we had to train learning skills uphill both ways!


Voogru
Gallente
Massive Damage
We Are John Galt
Posted - 2011.03.27 22:22:00 - [51]
 

Originally by: Adunh Slavy

Support HR 1098! :)


I wish it was that easy, the politicians are bought and paid for by the fed. If the congress performs any actions against the fed, the fed can single handedly collapse the economy, just like the central bank did when Jackson was refusing to renew the banks charter.

Sadly, Jackson forgot to outlaw fractional reserve banking.

Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
Posted - 2011.03.27 23:45:00 - [52]
 

Originally by: Voogru
... Jackson ...


For fear of getting this thread locked, I agree. Central Banks have been playing the same game for a few hundred years.

Kind of brings us back to why I asked which school the Doc prefered; and mentioned his concern may not be his so much as that of Eve's Central Bankers, as it were.

Voogru
Gallente
Massive Damage
We Are John Galt
Posted - 2011.03.28 00:08:00 - [53]
 

Originally by: Adunh Slavy
Originally by: Voogru
... Jackson ...


For fear of getting this thread locked, I agree. Central Banks have been playing the same game for a few hundred years.

Kind of brings us back to why I asked which school the Doc prefered; and mentioned his concern may not be his so much as that of Eve's Central Bankers, as it were.


The thing is there is very little incentive for him to manipulate the currency in EVE, because if they really screw things up, people can just stop playing the game.

In the real world that's not much of an option.

Taedrin
Gallente
Kushan Industrial
Posted - 2011.03.28 02:13:00 - [54]
 

Originally by: Florestan Bronstein
Edited by: Florestan Bronstein on 25/03/2011 20:27:12

EyjoG: CCP "may or may not" intervene on the PLEX market to guarantee its stability (without disclosed targets)




And here I thought "may or may not" generally meant that they simply weren't going to rule out any options, and didn't mean that they were trying to subvertly accomplish anything.

Caldari Citizen20090217
Posted - 2011.03.28 14:28:00 - [55]
 

:warning - tinfoil hattery from someone with no economic knowledge incoming:

Maybe the statement that CCP may intervene in PLEX prices to preserve stability is a direct response to the perceived threat that aggrieved macroers/RMTers could retaliate against CCP bans by manipulating PLEX prices and thus either hurting CCPs bottom line or making RMT isk a more attractive prospect to players.

enterprisePSI
Unimatrix 0.1
Posted - 2011.03.28 14:43:00 - [56]
 

tin foil armor integrity down to 50% Laughing

Selene D'Celeste
Caldari
The D'Celeste Trading Company
ISK Six
Posted - 2011.03.28 21:23:00 - [57]
 

Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Originally by: Selene D'Celeste
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt

The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).



Try talking out of your ass less. You're off by two orders of magnitude.


Yea as if you knew, If your not a CCP dev then your talking out of your ass also so stop being a hypcrit. The point is the isk created every day is more then the ammount needed to do what I am talking about.




And as several people pointed out, we do actually have pretty hard numbers for this sort of thing. Please start doing some research before you start making up numbers and insulting others.

Selene D'Celeste
Caldari
The D'Celeste Trading Company
ISK Six
Posted - 2011.03.28 22:03:00 - [58]
 

Originally by: Caldari Citizen20090217
:warning - tinfoil hattery from someone with no economic knowledge incoming:

Maybe the statement that CCP may intervene in PLEX prices to preserve stability is a direct response to the perceived threat that aggrieved macroers/RMTers could retaliate against CCP bans by manipulating PLEX prices and thus either hurting CCPs bottom line or making RMT isk a more attractive prospect to players.


There's also a chance that it was just a random comment by a guy who doesn't think that manipulating plex someday is a big deal, and just mentioned that it's something they could do if there was a reason?

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2011.03.28 22:59:00 - [59]
 

Originally by: The Breadmaster
There is a lot of fancy debate in this thread, but why CCP would wish to regulate the price of PLEX is rather simple:
High ISK / plex = more players RMT plex to flip into isk, while fewer players RMT plex to keep accounts active.
Low ISK / plex = fewer players RMT plex to flip into isk, while more players RMT plex to keep accounts active.
Whatever price point CCP wants to maintain PLEX will always be relative to the "cost of living" in game.

There may be some player speculation now and then (like what usually happens before any campaign where CCP announces it will add some more uses for PLEX, from fanfest passes to donations or even what happened when "PLEX for remap" was just talk), but mostly, the easier it is to make ISK ingame while nothing else changes, the higher PLEX prices go.
All CCP really needs to do to "regulate the price of PLEX" is to not even touch it, but instead, influence the ISK earning potential.

The "cost of living" as you call it (which is a ratio between "ISK earning potential" and the "basket price of typical consumer goods") is mostly self-regulating, since the "basket price" tends to follow the "earning potential", with some non-trivial variations between product classes, but overall, it tends to remain mostly stable. BTW, the PLEX should be included in that basket price too.

Alternatively, either add or remove uses for PLEX, that would also do the trick.

Claire Voyant
Posted - 2011.03.29 02:06:00 - [60]
 

Originally by: Akita T
There may be some player speculation now and then (like what usually happens before any campaign where CCP announces it will add some more uses for PLEX, from fanfest passes to donations or even what happened when "PLEX for remap" was just talk), but mostly, the easier it is to make ISK ingame while nothing else changes, the higher PLEX prices go.

Offhand, I would say the supply of PLEX is much more variable than the demand for PLEX and the large price swings we see are driven by people coming into the game (or returning) for the expansions and selling large quantities of PLEX. My understanding is that Dr. E was refering to this in his remarks, but I will withhold any additional comments on them until I get a chance to see them for myself.

Longer term, you may be right that the "secular" price of PLEX (as opposed to the cyclical) is determined by inflationary factors (the supply of isk or the "cost of living") and in that way PLEX is the "gold standard" for Eve. But remember that the Eve economy still needs to digest that seasonal influx of PLEX much like Spain in the sixteenth century did every time a ship laden with gold and silver arrived from the new world.


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