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blankseplocked Where will Nocxium end?
 
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My Postman
Posted - 2010.12.13 13:45:00 - [1]
 

Dear MD regulars, as the title say?

6 months ago i bought a good nocx stock for 80 isk/unit (buy orders). When i checked yesterday, its about 435 isk/unit on sell orders.

As i will run out of mining crystals (for selling) soon, i could use my stock for producing and selling them for massive profit.

But Nocx is moving heavily up and down (ofc more up), and the crystals sell slowly, but for a steady profit.

Will the upward trend hold on? Can anyone tell me WHY there was a rise for 500 % (actually this is my nr. 1 question)?

Tekota
The Freighter Factory
Posted - 2010.12.13 13:53:00 - [2]
 

The why is most likely covered here: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1429022

Whether it'll go further or not, who knows, note that average has been slipping last few days but I'm getting increasingly bad at predicting prices :)

Tasko Pal
Aliastra
Posted - 2010.12.13 15:31:00 - [3]
 

I would have disposed of the nocxium long ago and used the cash for other things. From what you're saying, it sounds to me like you should sell most or all of your nocxium stock. If you're going to make mining crystals anyway, then sure set some nocx aside and do your thing. But if selling mining crystals is a bother or distraction for you, then I suggest getting while the getting is good.

I have no idea what nocxium will do in the future, but it's a pretty good increase for you now. I recommend profit taking. If it does go up further, comfort yourself with your solid 5x gain in six months rather than the extra that you could have made.

Berikath
Posted - 2010.12.13 15:43:00 - [4]
 

Originally by: My Postman

Will the upward trend hold on? Can anyone tell me WHY there was a rise for 500 % (actually this is my nr. 1 question)?


Presumably the 500% jump you're talking about is from the initial price change. This was because mineral supply was tweaked to better reflect demand... namely, Nocx supply dropped.... a lot.

There were a couple aggravating factors that I've seen too- namely, the best yields on Nocx are from low-sec ores, which are generally undesirable due to their difficulty in securing a system for mining, and BSAC's choice to buy up a lot (and I mean LOT) of Nocx and only sell it for higher-than-market-prices.

Also, a particularly well-timed manipulation attempt for Nocx caused an initial spike... and when it didn't go back down after a week or so, people just seemed to resign themselves to paying whatever the price was for it ATM.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.12.13 16:29:00 - [5]
 

Originally by: Berikath
Originally by: My Postman

Will the upward trend hold on? Can anyone tell me WHY there was a rise for 500 % (actually this is my nr. 1 question)?


Presumably the 500% jump you're talking about is from the initial price change. This was because mineral supply was tweaked to better reflect demand... namely, Nocx supply dropped.... a lot.

There were a couple aggravating factors that I've seen too- namely, the best yields on Nocx are from low-sec ores, which are generally undesirable due to their difficulty in securing a system for mining, and BSAC's choice to buy up a lot (and I mean LOT) of Nocx and only sell it for higher-than-market-prices.

Also, a particularly well-timed manipulation attempt for Nocx caused an initial spike... and when it didn't go back down after a week or so, people just seemed to resign themselves to paying whatever the price was for it ATM.


Markets don't work like that. Both BSAC and the manipulation came in to amplify the effect of a long term price repositioning to the high. The manipulation by itself would not cause a long term repositioning, it was the consequence of it and leveraging on a momentum that built up anyway.

Hyveres
Caldari
Resilience.
Northern Coalition.
Posted - 2010.12.13 17:12:00 - [6]
 

Well the recent war in the kavela expanse might have disrupted some of the logistics related with transporting minerals from the drone regions to empire. Which might also affect the price.

Berikath
Posted - 2010.12.13 18:09:00 - [7]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

Markets don't work like that. Both BSAC and the manipulation came in to amplify the effect of a long term price repositioning to the high. The manipulation by itself would not cause a long term repositioning, it was the consequence of it and leveraging on a momentum that built up anyway.


That's why I said they were aggravating factors. I.E., the root causes would have made it happen eventually, but they amplified the situation making the adjustment happen significantly more quickly and significantly more steeply.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.12.13 19:01:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: Berikath
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

Markets don't work like that. Both BSAC and the manipulation came in to amplify the effect of a long term price repositioning to the high. The manipulation by itself would not cause a long term repositioning, it was the consequence of it and leveraging on a momentum that built up anyway.


That's why I said they were aggravating factors. I.E., the root causes would have made it happen eventually, but they amplified the situation making the adjustment happen significantly more quickly and significantly more steeply.


Aggravating factors?
It's a free market, they are significant income opportunities waiting to be catched.

Berikath
Posted - 2010.12.13 19:24:00 - [9]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha

Aggravating factors?
It's a free market, they are significant income opportunities waiting to be catched.


Wut?

I'll be honest, I can't tell if you're trolling me or simply not understanding what I have said.

There were factors which amplified the magnitude of the change by both depleting stockpiles (by a single actor acquiring significant portions of the available stockpiles and being conservative about releasing them) and creating a bump in demand (panic buying due to manipulation attempt). While the adjustment would have happened without these factors, they (IMHO) made the adjustment happen sooner and more over a shorter period of time than if they had not been in play.

Tamarana
Minmatar
C.L.A.W.
Posted - 2010.12.14 01:56:00 - [10]
 

Nocxium will continue to raise until a new equilibrium will be reached.
Give the lower drop rate of loot, the prices of Mex, Iso and Nocx must readjust. Mex and Iso have already adjusted (more mining in high sec). Nocxium can not be mined in high sec in quantities large enough. So it must come from some other place.
Or the quantity of loot grow (more missions) or Nocxium must be mined.
Given people will not mine it in low sec, this will leave only 0.0 and WH.
But there people mine ABC, because it is more profitable.
So will see the price of Nocxium to grow until it will become more profitable to mine ore high on Nocxium than one of the ABC ores.

rain9441
Big Head Want Dolly
Posted - 2010.12.14 02:10:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: Tamarana
So will see the price of Nocxium to grow until it will become more profitable to mine ore high on Nocxium than one of the ABC ores.


Which means is at or around 800 per IIRC from another thread.

Sounds about right. But seeing as how low sec is many times more dangerous to mine in than 0.0, I'd say Nocxium could hit as high as 1200!

My Postman
Posted - 2010.12.14 12:41:00 - [12]
 

Thanks everybody for your valid answers.

It looks to me that even MD regulars donŽt know or even assume where this will lead to.

IŽll spend a little bit on it for the crystals i can sell in two month time, and keep the rest at least for one month (or see a nosedive and cry a bit).

Btw: There are ppl selling crystals for less than reprocessing price would be. No big margins. If i wouldŽnt be too lazy to go 8 jumps i would buy them. Why does someone do that? As far as i know they donŽt "drop" from rats/missions? Do i see the MIMAF (minerals i mine are free) bunch?

Rasz Lin
Caldari
Uitraan Diversified Holdings Incorporated
Posted - 2010.12.14 14:25:00 - [13]
 

Originally by: Berikath
... and when it didn't go back down after a week or so, people just seemed to resign themselves to paying whatever the price was for it ATM.


Thats me right there. I had a small stockpile (1m units) that I was margin trading in Jita, but when I saw the spike I just moved it to my manufacturing system and stopped touching Nocx completely. I refuse to trade stuff that can go puff overnight (at least since Y-T8).

Berikath
Posted - 2010.12.14 15:24:00 - [14]
 

Originally by: rain9441
Originally by: Tamarana
So will see the price of Nocxium to grow until it will become more profitable to mine ore high on Nocxium than one of the ABC ores.


Which means is at or around 800 per IIRC from another thread.

Sounds about right. But seeing as how low sec is many times more dangerous to mine in than 0.0, I'd say Nocxium could hit as high as 1200!


......


....................................

Quote:
until it will become more profitable to mine ore high on Nocxium than one of the ABC ores


You start finding low-sec ores in low-sec. However, they are ALSO found in null sec!

Once they're more valuable than ABC, 0.0 miners will start mining them. No need to ever go into low sec for them.

Was that just being stupid, or were you trying to pump up nocx prices even more? I can sympathize with being stupid; I will sometimes say something that makes perfect sense at the time then go "wait- what did I just say?!"

Brian Ballsack
Posted - 2010.12.14 15:42:00 - [15]
 

Originally by: Berikath
Once they're more valuable than ABC, 0.0 miners will start mining them.


People mine in 0.0 ???
I think around 1000 is going to be the eventual price.

Tasko Pal
Aliastra
Posted - 2010.12.14 15:52:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: My Postman


Btw: There are ppl selling crystals for less than reprocessing price would be. No big margins. If i wouldŽnt be too lazy to go 8 jumps i would buy them. Why does someone do that? As far as i know they donŽt "drop" from rats/missions? Do i see the MIMAF (minerals i mine are free) bunch?


There's one mission that drops t1 mining crystals. I don't recall what it is or what level it is.

Berikath
Posted - 2010.12.14 15:56:00 - [17]
 

Edited by: Berikath on 14/12/2010 15:58:21
Originally by: Brian Ballsack
Originally by: Berikath
Once they're more valuable than ABC, 0.0 miners will start mining them.


People mine in 0.0 ???
I think around 1000 is going to be the eventual price.


... of course people mine in 0.0. It may not be the most popular activity, but you know that guy with 6 accounts?

5 of them can fly hulks and 1 is an Orca pilot. When he gets bored and starts watching TV, he mines at the same time.

*edit*
Originally by: Tasko Pal
Originally by: My Postman


Btw: There are ppl selling crystals for less than reprocessing price would be. No big margins. If i wouldŽnt be too lazy to go 8 jumps i would buy them. Why does someone do that? As far as i know they donŽt "drop" from rats/missions? Do i see the MIMAF (minerals i mine are free) bunch?


There's one mission that drops t1 mining crystals. I don't recall what it is or what level it is.
Are they selling for less than production cost before Nocx spiked? It might be a case of someone making a bunch of crystals, throwing them up on the market, and leaving them there for a month or two.

Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
Posted - 2010.12.14 17:48:00 - [18]
 



There are good indications that Nocxium is heading to 600-630 ISK per unit. Breaking 650 ISK mark will take a bit of time.

rain9441
Big Head Want Dolly
Posted - 2010.12.14 18:36:00 - [19]
 

Originally by: Berikath
Was that just being stupid, or were you trying to pump up nocx prices even more? I can sympathize with being stupid; I will sometimes say something that makes perfect sense at the time then go "wait- what did I just say?!"


I'll take "wait- what did I just say?!" for 500.

800 is the word.


Minerva Vulcan
Caldari
Ctrl Alt Elites
Posted - 2010.12.14 20:11:00 - [20]
 

To the moon, baby! To the moon.

Batack
Gallente
Posted - 2010.12.14 21:20:00 - [21]
 

The only reason nocx is heading up is people playing the market. If people left the market to find it's own level it would drop back to a much nicer 180-200 isk pu. Hopefully this 500 isk pu is unsustainable and the price will drop back to around 200 where it should be.

Tasko Pal
Aliastra
Posted - 2010.12.14 21:35:00 - [22]
 

Edited by: Tasko Pal on 14/12/2010 21:38:00
Originally by: rain9441
Originally by: Berikath
Was that just being stupid, or were you trying to pump up nocx prices even more? I can sympathize with being stupid; I will sometimes say something that makes perfect sense at the time then go "wait- what did I just say?!"


I'll take "wait- what did I just say?!" for 500.

800 is the word.


I'm going with Block over Rain. If none of the other minerals changes in price, then at 800, jaspet and hermophite will be roughly comparable to crokite. That's useful as a first order cap. However it is very likely that the other minerals will decline as nocx climbs in price. That will lower the value of ABC ores somewhat relative to the above low sec ores. I would not expect nocx to reach 800.

Added:

Originally by: Batack
The only reason nocx is heading up is people playing the market. If people left the market to find it's own level it would drop back to a much nicer 180-200 isk pu. Hopefully this 500 isk pu is unsustainable and the price will drop back to around 200 where it should be.


If there's a huge market deviation, then you should be making money hand over fist. Crush these market players while enjoying the fruits of your victory!

Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
Posted - 2010.12.15 00:09:00 - [23]
 

Originally by: Tasko Pal
I'm going with Block over Rain.


I didn't imply that 800 ISK was not possible. For instance, due to the Reserve's low levels of Nocxium, our remaining "Reserve Stock" is on the market at 795-800 ISK. So we do expect a peak in the 800 IKS range.



Patri Andari
Caldari
Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
Posted - 2010.12.15 01:02:00 - [24]
 

Alas, Pax Amarria is you cap!



Amarr Citizen 155
Nordar Innovations.
Posted - 2010.12.15 01:25:00 - [25]
 

Noc will go where I tell it to go, everyone knows that.

Murev Vorchilde
Caldari
End Game.
Posted - 2010.12.15 08:04:00 - [26]
 

nocx is my nightmare :-(
bout 2 years ago i bought huge at like 200 pu hoping for long term recovery, got fed up when it ended up bellow 100 sold up

then this happened

you win some you lose some Laughing

My Postman
Posted - 2010.12.15 10:12:00 - [27]
 

Originally by: Berikath
Edited by: Berikath on 14/12/2010 15:58:21
Originally by: Brian Ballsack
Originally by: Berikath
Once they're more valuable than ABC, 0.0 miners will start mining them.


People mine in 0.0 ???
I think around 1000 is going to be the eventual price.


... of course people mine in 0.0. It may not be the most popular activity, but you know that guy with 6 accounts?

5 of them can fly hulks and 1 is an Orca pilot. When he gets bored and starts watching TV, he mines at the same time.

*edit*
Originally by: Tasko Pal
Originally by: My Postman


Btw: There are ppl selling crystals for less than reprocessing price would be. No big margins. If i wouldŽnt be too lazy to go 8 jumps i would buy them. Why does someone do that? As far as i know they donŽt "drop" from rats/missions? Do i see the MIMAF (minerals i mine are free) bunch?


There's one mission that drops t1 mining crystals. I don't recall what it is or what level it is.
Are they selling for less than production cost before Nocx spiked? It might be a case of someone making a bunch of crystals, throwing them up on the market, and leaving them there for a month or two.


Checked yesterday, there are Plagio crystal I up for 38.000/u and reprocessing (with not perfect skills will give me 40k/u calculated with 435 isk/unit nocx.

It looks that they are from production (stock 100 and one stock is 500+ something). Anyway too lazy to pick them up, as i said before.

Again thanks for all the answers.


 

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