Been looking at this in the course of an ongoing bet
on mineral prices and whilst my hunch has always been that Noctis demand wouldn't be and isn't as important as suggested but merely served as a catalyst for a market re-adjustment (helped along with a not insignificant nudge or two), unfortunately (for my ego) the figures do indeed point to a lot of the Nocxium rise being down to the Noctis.
In the 10 day period between 30 Nov and 9 Dec some 9188 Noctii were traded in the Forge.
A ME0 Noctis print (as much of this production will have been done at ME0) with Prod Eff V skill uses 27,093 units of Nocxium.
9188 * 27,093 = 249 million nocxium consumed by noctis production.
In the same 10 days between 30 Nov and 9 Dec some 1.411 billion units of nocxium were traded (how much was traded back and forth is up for debate).
In the previous 10 days between 20 Nov and 29 Nov some 1.136 billion units were traded.
The difference between nocxium traded 20th Nov to 29th Nov and 30th Nov to 9th Dec is roughly filled by the 249m consumed by Noctis production.
Now of course it's probably safe to assume that trades of the same noctis from one trader to another were/are reasonably limited (perhaps with the exception of the first day) wheras trades in nocxium have a much higher likelihood of just being swaps between traders.
Regardless, 249 million units of nocxium in 10 days represents a sizeable portion of the nocxium trade no matter which way you look at it.