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Nicky's Tomb
Posted - 2010.12.09 13:41:00 - [1]
 

I know this is not new, but humor me.

Guidance Systems and Planetary Vehicles.

If you add up how much it currently costs to make them from P1 materials they work out around 60-80k. However, the current market price is like 6-8k.

This would suggest, buy, buy, buy!

However I'm suspicious. Other things may be happening.

To support the fact they are so cheap, it could be that as PI is a new thing in the game and everyone wants to go and do it, they sell their stuff at whatever the market tells them to sell it at and don't even realise they are making a massive loss. Add in the fact that most players don't include opportunistic costs, so if they extracted the materials themselves and processed all the way up the chain, it's "FREE ISK" to them, so they don't care. Some may realise if they sell the components they will make far more money.

The other thing I'm considering is the spreadsheet I am using to calculate the material cost of the higher PI goods may well be using the R0 market value to derive the P1 cost. As I'm sure 99% of people who extract reprocess to P1 at least, the supply of R0 will be low and the demand will remain high because High Sec people quickly realised that processing was where the money was in High Sec as the deposits are a lot less lucrative the higher the sec.

Any thoughts?

Nicky's Tomb

Liberty Eternal
Posted - 2010.12.09 13:48:00 - [2]
 

They'll dump their stocks this Saturday when the weekend trade increase gives them the means to do so. No way are all these recent market manipulation attempts going to go across the 14th December date-line.

Cancel down all your buy orders for PI this weekend, sell of your stock in those units and get into cash.

RAW23
Posted - 2010.12.09 13:49:00 - [3]
 

There are massive stockpiles from the days when these items were available on NPC sell orders for, for example, 3-400isk/unit for Guidance Systems. Something in the region of 100mil units were purchased in the days leading up to the introduction of PI. The stockpiles have been depleting for some time now and/or changing hands from people who wanted an early cash out with a 1000% profit margin (selling at, say, 4k/units) to those who will stay in for the longer haul and so the prices are moving up but they will not reach build costs until all the remaining stockpiloes are in the hands of people who won't accept less than build cost for them. Eventually, absent CCP nerfs, they should reach something approaching the price levels you note. How long that will take, though, is the big question.

Illectroculus Defined
No Bull Ships
Posted - 2010.12.09 14:31:00 - [4]
 

It's not simply a manipulation attempt, since Incursion 1.0 they removed a whole bunch of place in missions that would drop PI loot, now instead of Guidance Systems and enriched uranium you get Frozen Food and Carbon. I used to have buy orders for GS up in tutorial systems and I'd get about a thousand units per day at rock bottom prices. Now those supplies have stopped, the stockpiles are all that are left to hold prices down, so long term these items are going to their roduction costs, the question is how long term.

Liberty Eternal
Posted - 2010.12.09 14:42:00 - [5]
 

True, but CCP need to fix the PI system before they cripple their player-base. This is their Christmas launch promotion, they are taking out learning skills to cater to their new player market. It doesn't make any business sense to leave PI unadjusted as well.

I don't know, maybe they want all those new players to lose interest in the game in the first month. But if they want to retain new players then they will stealth-patch the PI system on the 14th. We'll find out soon enough I suppose.

Fred Barbossa
Free Mineral Collective
Posted - 2010.12.09 15:54:00 - [6]
 

Originally by: Liberty Eternal

I don't know, maybe they want all those new players to lose interest in the game in the first month. But if they want to retain new players then they will stealth-patch the PI system on the 14th.


How on earth will improving PI increase retention. Farmville has better game play and its free, I don't think CCP will be stealing their members. An increase in goods used for t2 production will have very little effect on people in their first month.


Sol Fallstaff
Posted - 2010.12.09 18:02:00 - [7]
 

Edited by: Sol Fallstaff on 09/12/2010 18:08:33


1000 Planetary Vehicles are still dropped in enemies abound mission 4 so this will aid in keeping that PI good at a lowish price, guidence systems are also dropped in missions but only 10 at a time I believe.

Ive invested in guidence systems and am in for the long haul we'll see how they go over the months / years. buy some and forget about them.. they gotta go up some time Very Happy

oops didnt realise that the enemies abound 4 has had its planetary vechicles drop stopped, better invest in those too Very Happy

BellaDonna Nyghtshade
Minmatar
Native Freshfood
Posted - 2010.12.09 19:21:00 - [8]
 

These items, along with several others, are readily and easily available for the cost of a few missiles, charges, or, in the case of the bloody Amarr, for free.

They are regularly and plentifully dropped by the wandering caravans, haulers, tradesman and other such silly named NPC ships you see slowly plowing themselves along in high sec systems.

And no, there need be no risk whatsoever in taking these 'couriers' out, if one understands the logistics involved.

Until these drops cease, these items will never be worth their production costs.

Knowledge is power, and wealth.

:)

Xan O'Morph
Posted - 2010.12.09 21:05:00 - [9]
 

I very much doubt that there are many people attempting to keep the guidance system market down by destroying and looting npc ships going about there business, you might aswell just build em using PI, oh wait its not worth it I could be building something else that actually makes a profit. So i would imagine that instead of waiting for these cargo ships at the gates for their oh so precious cargo most players will be doing something a bit more profitable like mining Very Happy

The only thing holding back guidance systems prices are the immense stocks that have been hoarded, but its anyones guess how long they will last.

skye orionis
Posted - 2010.12.09 21:12:00 - [10]
 

Originally by: BellaDonna Nyghtshade

Knowledge is power, and wealth.



So you're weak and poor I guess since your knowledge is bogus. The NPC haulers stopped dropping PI goods too, well with the exception of water and Oxygen. Whole crapton of tobacco, frozen food, pax amarria, dairy products and other stuff, none of the juicy Guidance systems, mechanical parts or PLanetary vehicles I've been used to.

Granted I've only bothered popping half a dozen of these, so it's statisticly possible the loot table isn't favouring me.

DarthCaboose
Posted - 2010.12.09 21:17:00 - [11]
 

Whatever stockpiles people have of extremely cheap goods that were stored from before PI came out will eventually run out. If you see people posting very low prices, it may be a very good long-term investment to just buy those out and wait for prices to rise. The depressed Nocxium prices come to mind here; people's stockpiles of the stuff have run low and people are now realizing exactly how much the ore should reflect its actual base price (of something around 500 ISK a piece).

Dealing with R0 is a little tricky. Everyone knows that the tax prices of importing and exporting (as well as the babysitting required to make it work) is undesirable compared to dealing with the P1s. If we neglect stockpiles, try and determine an equitable price for the P1s and stick with it; if the industrialists see their past stockpiles run out, they will no doubt set a new price that is then reasonable based on the export taxes.

I firmly believe that the items you've mentioned will increase to overcome its repressed price just like Nocxium did. It may take years but when people forget about why it was so cheap in the first place, the price will rise, and people will complain again about why it's rising when Dust514 ends up relying so heavily on Planetary Vehicles (or, at least, some item which is dependent on Planetary Vehicles).


 

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