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TheSpyInCorp
Posted - 2010.11.13 02:34:00 - [61]
 

Originally by: ceaon

forum troll


you are one

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.11.13 04:15:00 - [62]
 

Edited by: Akita T on 13/11/2010 04:44:50

Originally by: ceaon
assumption, you just made one

Bloody friggin hell man, learn to read a damn graph.
There's a grand total of roughly 29 quarters pictured on the bottom graph but only roughly 28 on the top graph.
OF COURSE the graphs will be almost identical, the only difference is a tiny 3.5% extra at the end.
The difference between a graph that would go up to 1 September 2010 vs 30 September 2010 would be barely above 1% extra at the end, or around 6 pixels.


P.S. You annoyed me enough to count the pixels...

The bottom graph has roughly 39 pixels per 6 months (hard to say how much exactly thanks to antialiasing), the vertical red demarcation line is roughly 3 pixels wide at 9 pixels away from June 1st 2010 (so roughly somewhere in early-mid July), then and the blue line continues for 17 pixels and a bit after the red line (again, slight antialiasing, so let's call that 17.25). In other words, the best estimate for how much data that graph is showing would be around 120 days past June 1st (give or take a week or thereabouts), or just about the very end of September.
Hey, what do you know, almost precisely what I said the first time around by eyeballing it, but now counting and calculation confirms it.

I expect an apology.

Xenofur
Aliastra
Posted - 2010.11.13 06:48:00 - [63]
 

There's some interesting data in there that i'll be able to use in my own project.

There's one thing i'd like to request though: Can we please get the map data (population, pvp, etc.) also in table format?

Alice Celadon
Sniggerdly
Pandemic Legion
Posted - 2010.11.13 12:45:00 - [64]
 

Originally by: Mynxee
I wonder if it is assumed ships lost in the attempt to put down an Incursion are going to be a sufficient ISK sink to offset that?




Some other poster blithely talked about incursions hampering PVE, but that's just nonsense. The 64% spike in bounties (and the cause of current inflation) is from the constant supply of sanctums and havens in null. Those make up to 70 mil/hr of straight isk (note that previously running missions in hisec gave a balance of lp and isk -- not nearly as much of an isk faucet, though similar take home income).

Joss56
Gallente
Unleashed' Fury
Posted - 2010.11.13 12:53:00 - [65]
 

Originally by: Xenofur
There's some interesting data in there that i'll be able to use in my own project.

There's one thing i'd like to request though: Can we please get the map data (population, pvp, etc.) also in table format?


Nice feature.

ceaon
Posted - 2010.11.13 15:38:00 - [66]
 

Originally by: Akita T
I expect an apology.

i trust uLaughing (there is no way i am going to count the pixels Shocked)
Please visit your user settings to re-enable images.

Miss President
Caldari
SOLARIS ASTERIUS
Posted - 2010.11.13 17:17:00 - [67]
 

nice report

R Minatore
Gallente
The Nucking Futters
Posted - 2010.11.13 18:05:00 - [68]
 

Amazing report! Thank you, Dr. G. and the rest of the R&S team!

Mikel Laurentson
Posted - 2010.11.14 19:01:00 - [69]
 

I don't see how you can conclude that people are moving from hi-sec to nullsec.

"This quarter saw a further shift toward null security and wormhole space, with more characters
choosing to move to lawless areas. Wormhole space has seen the most dramatic increase, with
a 6.57% growth in total population. At the end of the quarter, 2.42% of characters were located
within wormhole space. This is a fairly dramatic increase, since at the end of Q1 only 1.76% of characters
resided there."

Here's the numbers, in absolute terms:
Q2 Q3 Change
All 716990 696256 -20734
Hi+low 623917 601848 -22069
Null 76739 76999 +260
W-space 15808 16846 +1038

When twenty-two thousand people leave one place, and two hundred arrive somewhere else... that's not a movement from one place to the other. It's noise: perhaps the Q2 numbers were pulled when an unusually high number of nullsec folk were in hisec doing their grocery shopping. Yeah, I'm sure that the percentage shifts look like going from one to the other, but that's a silly error to make.

W-space growth is a legitimate claim, mind, gaining nearly 5% of the number of who left high-sec.

Are account losses following expansions normally left most heavily in Empire space? It seems reasonable to assume so, but I'd rather not assume if I can avoid it.



Out of interest, does the ship-numbers snapshot do something horrific to TQ? Because when you can't be sure that miner numbers dropped because of Hulkageddon or because, say, mining isn't as profitable as it used to be, perhaps you need to get a little more data.

Evelgrivion
Gunpoint Diplomacy
Posted - 2010.11.14 20:55:00 - [70]
 

Originally by: Mikel Laurentson
I don't see how you can conclude that people are moving from hi-sec to nullsec.

"This quarter saw a further shift toward null security and wormhole space, with more characters
choosing to move to lawless areas. Wormhole space has seen the most dramatic increase, with
a 6.57% growth in total population. At the end of the quarter, 2.42% of characters were located
within wormhole space. This is a fairly dramatic increase, since at the end of Q1 only 1.76% of characters
resided there."

Here's the numbers, in absolute terms:
Q2 Q3 Change
All 716990 696256 -20734
Hi+low 623917 601848 -22069
Null 76739 76999 +260
W-space 15808 16846 +1038

When twenty-two thousand people leave one place, and two hundred arrive somewhere else... that's not a movement from one place to the other. It's noise: perhaps the Q2 numbers were pulled when an unusually high number of nullsec folk were in hisec doing their grocery shopping. Yeah, I'm sure that the percentage shifts look like going from one to the other, but that's a silly error to make.

W-space growth is a legitimate claim, mind, gaining nearly 5% of the number of who left high-sec.

Are account losses following expansions normally left most heavily in Empire space? It seems reasonable to assume so, but I'd rather not assume if I can avoid it.



Out of interest, does the ship-numbers snapshot do something horrific to TQ? Because when you can't be sure that miner numbers dropped because of Hulkageddon or because, say, mining isn't as profitable as it used to be, perhaps you need to get a little more data.



I'd wager that a considerable amount of these highsec account losses came from players shedding alt accounts. Many players, even those who are quitting the game, will leave their mains and maybe even an alt subscribed - even if they don't log in.

TheBlueMonkey
Gallente
Fags R Us
Posted - 2010.11.15 13:15:00 - [71]
 

Firstly, I think it's awesome that CCP actually get an economist on the payroll to give us this kind of feed back.

Unfortunatly it's another idea that seems to me to have been picked up by marketing department and then dropped the second it's announced.

The fact that we can all read over this and pick holes in it to this degree is a major worry for me, it always has been with these.

When you say "an economist on the payroll" my assumption is that he's a full time employee, is this correct?
If he is then why do we keep getting these reports that feel more like a glossy overview that have been rushed through rather than a decent economic break down?

I'd love to see the data put into some kind of perspective or comparison rather than "subs go up" "subs go down".
What accounts are being unsubbed?
What accounts are converting from trial to full?
What effect is PI having?

Nice as these are, I just find myself with more questions than answers.

p.s.
Less flashy images more interesting data

Evo YaMing
Posted - 2010.11.15 17:38:00 - [72]
 

Really nice to read.
One thing that really proves the game changes:
Is that each month are getting around 160 SC built but only around 20 destroyed,
same thing with Titans each month there are around 20 Titans getting built and only around 15 destroyed;

So Welcome to SuperCaptials online

One thing i really would like to know :
How many Freighters are getting killed each month in empire
Have there been changes?

Thx for your report

Bomberlocks
Minmatar
CTRL-Q
Posted - 2010.11.15 22:51:00 - [73]
 

Is it possible to take a snapshot at any other time besides downtime? The real problem with the current snapshots is that they tend to be biased towards certain timezones and additionally they won't show what people are really flying in roaming gangs etc because ships in station are not in a gang, are they? Surely you could simply do snapshots based on gate traffic instead? much more realistic.

You could include the biggest damage dealers and the number of involved ships in combat stats. Would make it much more interesting, and above all, relevant.

wert668
Posted - 2010.11.16 02:11:00 - [74]
 

Sad

Rustpunk
Minmatar
No-Mercy
Posted - 2010.11.16 05:42:00 - [75]
 

I blogged my analysis, but I'll note here my suggestions for the future in case the Research staff don't read the whole thing.

Proofreading has a long way to go. I’m surprised that this is still an issue there, considering the fact that they have both a research staff and marketing department.

We need consistent data. Specifically, the QENs should contain the same baseline minimum reports each quarter. Additional analysis and data are fine, even if they vary according to the focus of an analysis, but I’d like to see us be able to count on some things beyond player population.

Even better, give us real numbers. Don’t make us depend on trying to trace charts to estimate numbers with such an extreme lack of precision. A data dump would serve us much better, including macroeconomic and microeconomic data. Giving us the data for crowdsourcing additional analysis would really step things up a notch. The MD and S&I crowds would descend upon this like miners on arkonor. Something like some of the snapshot data could probably be extrapolated from EVE Metrics, but original data from an even more unimpeachable source would be awesome.

Overall, CCP actually does a fine job of presenting this report, something (almost?) no other virtual world does. I found it incredibly useful as an important input for establishing an updated market strategy, and I hope that all sorts of folks (traders, alliance leaders, developers at other games) give this the time and attention it deserves.

Caldari 5
Amarr
The Element Syndicate
Blazing Angels Alliance
Posted - 2010.11.16 07:56:00 - [76]
 

Quote:
Table 9 shows the top 20 ship types that landed final blows in PvP combat last July, excluding shuttles and rookie ships.


Kinda curious, how does a Shuttle end up on a Kill-mail as giving the final Blow?

Aside from that would be kinda cool to see the number of rookie ships that managed to snipe final blow, or was this like a goonswarm nerf report, I swear I heard that they did a rookie ship roam at some point. Similar to the good old Battle Badger.

How many Kill mails had shuttles and rookie ships on them?

Floydd Heywood
Posted - 2010.11.16 10:05:00 - [77]
 

I think the statistic on page 9 is very interesting – character races and how they fare in PvP. It cannot be correct though. The "lost ships"-column adds up to 100.1% and final kills to 99.9%, those are usual rounding errors. But the "share of characters"-column adds up to only 95.2%. I'm not aware of any characters not belonging to the four known races so the numbers must be wrong. Given that the differences between races shown in this statistic are fairly minor, this fault could invalidate the whole point made by the author.

I'd be very interested in the actual numbers on this.

Yeo San
Neoanarchistic Society
Posted - 2010.11.16 19:13:00 - [78]
 

Annotations to the QEN_Q3
I am a really dedicated reader of the economical reports and want to thank you for the new issue and all the data – especially on pvp –, because I am interested in statistics and data belonging to eve.
I’d like to comment certain aspects of the report. Please excuse potential faults, English is not my native language.


p. 9 racial overview of ships lost/final blows, compared with pp.30-
this is a problematical explanation because the data only indicates the preferation of races. To really face the result of CCP nerfing certain races and shiptyps you should look after shiptypes involved in killing a certain ship. The amount of cross-skilling pilots should be really following the fotms or the necessities. BUT: other regions demand other ships: while I still think that gallente ships are fine for low sec I don’t like using them in 0.0, because I see much disadvantages (but that’s another topic)

if you compare this to p. 30 you see exactely what I mean: in the top 20 final kills statistics, gallente ships are with megathron (#13) and myrmidon (#16) not very much flown, and therefore not highly ranked under the destroyed ships table (#8 [slight exception, because with nearly an equal number of killer and killed one may think the myr to be a bad pvp ship], ##15-18).

It is obvious that the other cheap t1-throw-away-battlecruisers are most flowing killers (##1, 2, 6) and most killed ships (## 1, 3, 4), being more compatible to 0.0 conditions than the gallente ships. The massive use of drakes in fleet fights has increased in the last time because of their low production costs, good insurance, easy reproduction possibility (t1 instead of t2) and nice damage output. If you try to win mass fights by isk efficiency these bcs are the right choice – and they do their job, as the damage done table (p.33) clearly indicates (#1 drake and #2 hurricane, #6 harbinger).

It also is no surprise that you’ll find the dramiel (#7) and cynabal (#9) in high places on the final blows chart (p30). They are overpowered fun ships which give frustrated gallente pilots a good recompensation for being a gallente crossskilling on minmatar.


p.9/10 “carrier into 0.0”
the amount of old players in 0.0 has certain reasons which may explain the indicated “career”: 1st good chance to pvp and get action; 2nd good carebear possibilities, 3rd unattractive lowsec.
I know much players in 0.0 which would love to return to low sec if it would be worth, because they prefer small scale pvp and hate the massive blob and lag-fest that don’t exist according to the server logs. If there would really be attractive features to lowsec this may change, but for incursions being new pve content, I don’t know if they help to revive ccps unloved low sec areas.

If you compare this data with p. 13, the switch of 200 players to 0.0 has not to be overexaggarated, more interesting to me is the fact, that 1000 characters changed towards wormholes.
At least one can say that pirates in low sec are summer-resistant: the number of characters is constant.

p.10/p.8 player decrease
this also is because of the summer gap: if summer comes to Europe, sometime even hardcore players realize it, go outside and enjoy the weather. Much of them will return now.
According to p.21 also the carebears made holidays, caused mineral market supply reduction and a inflation of the MPI, and also a price spike of the PPPI (p.26), SPPI (p.27) and CPI (p.28).

Yeo San
Neoanarchistic Society
Posted - 2010.11.16 19:15:00 - [79]
 

Part II

p.12 capital ships
thank you for the capital ships statistics. I really longed for them.
I. This huge amount of growth on capital ships is connected to the player’s age and skills. Having traded with demanded items in Jita for some months, I closely could follow other players skill demands over weapon specializations, shipskills up to carrierskills. This is clearly shown in the growth of the flown capital ships. A big boom naturally consists in the demand of supercapital ships, which prices are slowly dropping (if you follow the sell orders section on supercaps). After the last changes they are wonderful ships which a massive damage output, desirable and more flexible to use than dreadnoughts, which also have their use. And I suppose that much of the players with the age and skills to fly supercaps also have gained the money to buy them.
It’s pretty sure to predict that the growth of supercap number will continue, while the prices and income on them will slowly fall, because more building capacities seem to be provided (thanks for figure 21, p. 39!; Numbers of CSAAs in game?), but it also may be a good investment for the next month, because if you look at the number of carrier pilots: most of them will be able to fly a supercap, too.

And as the number of supercaps is rising and they being used at the game, its clearly that losses grew and will significantly grew in the future unless CCP has plans in nerfing them (see p. 38).

II. the increasing amount of capital and supercapital ships also is related to the increased necessity of using them. From a certain point of view the new sovereignity system failed expectations: instead of the end of structure shooting the ihubs, blockade units and stations (3 timers!!) have replaced some towers to shoot, but still remain cynojam/cynobeacon/jb towers … and so on. The failure is manifested on p. 42-44.

The decreased amount of killed dreadnoughts (p. 34) also indicates, that carriers and supercarriers are more attractive to do these jobs, because they don’t suffer the 10 minute blockade on siege cycles (see subscription of fugure 16: “The number of carriers destroyed has been growing slowly, while the number of dreadnoughts has varied more and has recently fallen sharply.”). you draw the same conclusion in your report on p 35: “Figure 16 shows carrier and dreadnought destruction since 2008. Carrier losses have been growing gradually over the years, while dreadnought losses decreased substantially following Dominion. The reason may be an increased focus on supercapitals as damage dealers after that expansion.”

If some CCP employees would have closely followed one of the mayor conflicts going on after the introduction of the new sov system, they should be disappointed considering attempt and result. major operations are really ennoying this way.

From my personal INIT. Point of view, I think that one big reason of failing in our northern campaign was the new sov system, and I personally disapprove to shoot all the waste that AAA left in catch.


Yeo San
Neoanarchistic Society
Posted - 2010.11.16 19:17:00 - [80]
 

Part III

p.12 blackops
blackops are no favourite ships and that is nothing unexpected: they can’t warp cloaked (being a BIG recon) and their jump range is way too low. I tried to do a little black ops roam two months ago and had to open up a cyno every 2 or 3 systems – it sucked, I won’t do it again. The only reasonable blackops use seems to be bridging bombers and other recons and small range ganks (see panther kills p.31). The problems are known, but doing nothing won’t change a bit. Poor ship.


p.11 hulk
the growth of the hulk’s use clearly is understandable if you connect it to the demand of (super)capitals: huge amounts of minerals are needed.


p.17/18 more isk, more income
I don’t only want to point to sc needs and production, but if you do not only have to mission/rat for the replacement of your pvp losses but get around 20-25 B (or more) for a supercap with fitting…

p.16/36-37: nice graphics!
The figures of population change (p.16) and combat data (destroyed ships/destroyed value, p 36/37) represents the big conflicts at that time (fall of atlas empire) and changes in catch afterwards (only p.16)

p.41 podkills
pirates and other podkillers long for a long time for implant details of the pods they killed, is there any data on the amount of destroyed implants in the pods? Compared with the number of implants on the market and their prices may appear also some interesting correlations. (Implant prices are high atm. Shortage? More losses? Too less mission runners investing in implants at lp-stores?)

Dav Varan
Posted - 2010.11.17 11:09:00 - [81]
 

For the Next Quarterley can we have a table with the following columns.

Data columns

Ship Name
Base cost
Total number of this type of ship lost ( In PvP combat only )
Total number of other ships destroyed by this ship class ( Ship is on the Kill Mail )
Total amount of Damage done by this ship class ( rather than final blows )

Calculated columns

Average Damage dealt per ship kill.
Average Damage dealt before loss of ship.

Both of the above divided by ship cost.


Would be a useful comparison of ship performance ( For DPS ships ).


Rip Minner
Gallente
ARMITAGE Logistics Salvage and Industries
Posted - 2010.11.21 04:14:00 - [82]
 

Edited by: Rip Minner on 21/11/2010 04:32:54
Edited by: Rip Minner on 21/11/2010 04:15:48
Originally by: Mynxee
Why do you lump low and high sec population into one "Empire" number? I want to see them broken out as separate numbers.

Also, I'm not very savvy regarding balancing of ISK sinks/faucets, but:

Quote:
QEN3, Figure 5: The graph shows the development of bounty prize payouts and the percentage change in each quarter. In only a year the bounty payout increased by 64%, pushing the money supply further up.


Quote:
Hilmar, page 4, October CSM Meeting Minutes: "The EVE economy has been mismanaged in the past according to Hilmar and as it stands now there is too much money in the system, thus all future changes to it have to be done in a careful and considerate manner."


And yet now we have another PvE feature coming that will add more ISK to the economy. I wonder if it is assumed ships lost in the attempt to put down an Incursion are going to be a sufficient ISK sink to offset that?




I would guess becouse the number of people in low sec were alittle disaponting. After all they keep trying to beat people out of high sec to low sec. But we all told them if they made missions scanable in low sec alot of targets would move. As it's one thing to have a chance at completing a mission and something alse of having no chance. And plz dont give me that crap about warping out every time someone comes into system ether. Or any of the other pain in the ars things you can do to make it safe. But slows you down way to much to be worth it. Add to the fact that if you have the man power to lock down a system or two or three there are much better places to spend your time and manpower.ugh

Or you can look at the reduction in bounty payouts to be a kind of sink in and of it's self too.

FluorosulfonicAcid
Posted - 2010.11.21 19:11:00 - [83]
 

Edited by: FluorosulfonicAcid on 21/11/2010 19:11:56
,

MagicAcid
Posted - 2010.11.21 19:15:00 - [84]
 

Does the graph of hi sec Battleship losses include the approximately 250 Rokhs and Abaddons per day I used to blow up using concord and multiple alts, or is that not considered PVP?

Joss56
Gallente
Unleashed' Fury
Posted - 2010.11.23 11:12:00 - [85]
 

Edited by: Joss56 on 23/11/2010 12:39:20
Originally by: MagicAcid
Does the graph of hi sec Battleship losses include the approximately 250 Rokhs and Abaddons per day I used to blow up using concord and multiple alts, or is that not considered PVP?


Typical exploit of security.
Now CCP says what? nothing
CCP does what? nothing

This means "Go ahead and find somme new friends to do it so"

Wink

I'thari
Minmatar
Posted - 2010.11.25 11:24:00 - [86]
 

Now I'm curious now how lagre was "PI" isk sink...

Risk Aversion
Posted - 2010.11.27 18:57:00 - [87]
 

Can you please release figure 30?

Vincent Athena
Posted - 2010.11.29 18:56:00 - [88]
 

Incursion could reduce isk growth. People who do incursion sites will most likely be those who would otherwise be doing missions or ratting. Both missions and ratting are big isk sources and small Loyalty Point sources. There is no LP for ratting at all.

Incursion will have a smaller isk reward and a larger LP reward. LP stores are a major isk sink. So as people switch from missions/ratting to incursion sites, the isk supply will drop, or at least grow more slowly.

Exploding ships are not a isk sink as the isk for the replacement ship just goes to another player, and hence stays in the game. In fact due to insurance payouts, exploding ships is an isk source.

I would like to see two other isk sinks/sources reported: isk owned by people who's accounts lapse (a sink) and people who restart their lapped accounts (a source).

Risk Aversion
Posted - 2011.01.02 15:47:00 - [89]
 

Bump for figure 30

Valeroth Kyarmentari
Posted - 2011.02.28 17:38:00 - [90]
 

When will we see QEN for 4th Quarter 2010? Or has one already come out and I just can't find it (I've looked)?



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