open All Channels
seplocked Market Discussions
blankseplocked Will Macro Miners make PLEX the new insurance?
 
This thread is older than 90 days and has been locked due to inactivity.


 
Author Topic

Taurin Herock
Posted - 2010.09.12 23:48:00 - [1]
 

Over the last month I've noticed a continued slide in the prices of the minerals derived from high sec ore. For example using Jita prices we see that the average minerals that moved on the market for August 15th (4 sunday's ago) compared to today area is follows:

Isogen 60.15 -> 63.16 +5.0%
Mexallon 35.05 -> 31.75 -9.4%
Pyerite 4.22 -> 2.84 -32.7%
Trit 2.44 -> 2.14 -12.3%

Comparing single dates like this is not very reliable for the higher value minerals, since their markets are more volatile. However for the high sec ores that move in tremendous volumes you can see with the in-game market tables that the data above is roughly representative of the market trends over the last month.

In the same time we have seen the average price of PLEX

321,911,000 -> 331,915,816 +3%

It's pure speculation, but I wonder if the two are related? Specifically I wonder if they demonstrate an influx of minerals from macro miners. Most likely the continued drop in high sec mineral prices is simply due to the effect of changes in ship insurance slowly letting the air out of the mineral value, and the increase in PLEX prices are due to some completely unrelated phenomenon.

Regardless of whether the market shifts represent an example of the influence of macro mining, the more interesting topic is this: How much of a big deal is high sec macro mining, and can/will CCP ever do anything systematic to stop it?

Obviously CCP wants to stop all macro activity that's related to RMT, that's competition for selling PLEX and you cannot have that. So they have a strong self interest to continue to crack down on RMT. But there is the more distributed problem of the guy who uses a second account to macro mine and buy PLEX to pay for his other characters and play for free. This "little guy" is basically invisible with respect to the impact on CCP's bottom line. They have very little motivation to stop him. Unlike the mission farming for ISK, these players can be in any system with a belt. They won't effect server lag much, due to being distributed around.

I recall that there was some discussion with the developers before the Tyranis update (or was that dominion?) that too many of the minerals on the market were provided by mission loot reprocessing, so they nerfed that because the mission runners were producing a significant fraction of minerals on the market as a side effect of activities they would be doing anyway. People who are using mining macro's are doing much the same thing.

I suppose it's hard to judge how large the problem of macro miners is. Who knows how much of the total minerals on the market do they provide? If there are hundreds, or thousands or even ten's of thousands of macro mining accounts providing minerals, will they continue to mine till the mining fails to provide them with enough ISK to buy another PLEX? If so then the price of PLEX will replace ship insurance as the new game mechanic that floats mineral prices.

So I ask the more learned market guru's to please comment. What are your perceptions about the bolded question above or the topic in general?

Victor Michaelle
Gallente
Posted - 2010.09.12 23:57:00 - [2]
 

noob question: What do you mean by insurance?

Sepi
Wiyrkomi Supplies LTD
Posted - 2010.09.13 00:01:00 - [3]
 

ok in my n00b experienced way i put it down to Holiday season for kids :) (bear with me)

Kids at home a lot want to play eve. so they play the game, enjoy making isk, so they mine a lot

More minerals mined = Lower mineral prices.

However PLEX's as people have less money (holidays, rescession) less are being bought to fund rich playthings

Less PLex bought = Higher prices.

Also if you look at the spikes / increases for PLEX they do tend to coinside with seasonal holidays, ie summer/xmas :)

This is and was my opinion and thankfully i took a gamble in july and it paid in late august based on that :)

Ashina Sito
Gallente
Center for Advanced Studies
Posted - 2010.09.13 01:18:00 - [4]
 

Argggg!

Macro mining is simple but not very cost effective. Macro missioning (ratting) is much better ISK.

The rise in PLEX has to do with speculators. Evey time PLEX goes up it is do to speculators. There is more PLEX coming into the game then leaving. The only time this has not been the case was the first few months PLEX existed as the GTC buyers were learning about the ability to convert GTC into PLEX.

Somewhere at CCP HQ is a poor little accountant that is pulling his (or her) hair out and getting an ulcer at the thought of the 3k per month of PLEX pile up on the server. (I say there are about 43,000 PLEX on TQ atm.)

Still, the lemmings are willing to follow and believe that "PLEX is going up!!!". So you get these, fairly normal, price cycles.

I have been trying to figure out whether PLEX will crash by the end of this month or wait till the end of October. It's tough to say.

Noun Verber
Gallente
Posted - 2010.09.13 01:43:00 - [5]
 

Have you accounted for the insurance change in your calculations?

EvilCheez
That's Retarded
FIGHT CLUB INC
Posted - 2010.09.13 04:35:00 - [6]
 

Quote:
The rise in PLEX has to do with speculators. Evey time PLEX goes up it is do to speculators. There is more PLEX coming into the game then leaving. The only time this has not been the case was the first few months PLEX existed as the GTC buyers were learning about the ability to convert GTC into PLEX.



How did you figure this?

SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
Posted - 2010.09.13 05:08:00 - [7]
 

While these are an enjoyable read most in this thread are wrong...

Two things to remember

1) Plexs that enter the game cost real life money. So people who have less money are not buying GTC's/PLEX out of game and converting them. They are done almost exclusively by people who can afford it.

2) People that buy PLEX have one of two mind sets.. a) I am playing for free by buying a PLEX with money I have spare. b) I can't afford a real cash to fund my game time.

People who have the mind set "I play for free" are people who can generate a PLEXs worth of income without making it seem like a task. I can easily afford a PLEX a month with my simple market is one example. Those that can't afford real life cash and play to play for free find it a task, often have to spend HOURS in missions daily to cover the cost.

School Kids.. They can't afford real life cost, but have a HEAP of spare time and enjoy playing games. This increases demand on PLEX hence raising the price.

Adults with Jobs can just buy GTS, and those who are well off just buy to convert to ISK because it saves them from having to farm. This lowers the demand on PLEX but has a limit on how much they will get. Notice here I said "People with Jobs" as the economy goes down and people lose their jobs PLEXs start to decrease in supply hence raise the price. If you have spare RL Cash, why farm in game when you can just spend a few bucks, get to play and have spending money... This floods the market with PLEXes hence lowering the price.

Adults without jobs or low income jobs usually have lots of uninterrupted time usually have ISK coming out of their nose, and can generate hundreds of millions if not billions a month ease. These people do not care how much PLEX price is because they can make it back within days. So in a crappy economy there are more of these people, putting demand on PLEXes, hence raising the price.

Crappy Economy + School was out = Increase Plex price.
Crappy Economy + Schools in = Continued higher prices but it's leveling or slowly lowering.
Great Economy + Schools out = Increase Plex Price, but flooding of the PLEX market.
Great Economy + Schools in = WAY to many PLEX in game, lower prices.

Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
Posted - 2010.09.13 08:38:00 - [8]
 

Originally by: Taurin Herock
Over the last month I've noticed a continued slide in the prices of the minerals derived from high sec ore.

No news there... although it's much slower // taking longer than I expected.

clixoras
Posted - 2010.09.13 09:02:00 - [9]
 

Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Taurin Herock
Over the last month I've noticed a continued slide in the prices of the minerals derived from high sec ore.

No news there... although it's much slower // taking longer than I expected.



My guess is that is party caused by the influx of new players / alts focused on PI. As PI requires relatively few skills (SP time) some / most of them started to focus on industry in general and thus boosting demand.

The relation with Macro's is that although they are banned there is definitely a cycle of banning and builtup to be observed with causes a more than average pressure on mineral supply at this moment. Major mineral traders should have more information about this but i'll be surprised if they want to disclose any information about these activities.

As for PLEX prices, again, the new PI/Industry ALT's should generate just enough income to afford PLEXes, are boosting demand. The remainder of the price increase is probably caused by speculation.

If there is a systematic oversupply of PLEXes prices should('ve) crash(ed), but they don't. Why, i dunno.

Shocker Steg
Amarr
Posted - 2010.09.13 10:58:00 - [10]
 

Originally by: clixoras
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Taurin Herock
Over the last month I've noticed a continued slide in the prices of the minerals derived from high sec ore.

No news there... although it's much slower // taking longer than I expected.



My guess is that is party caused by the influx of new players / alts focused on PI. As PI requires relatively few skills (SP time) some / most of them started to focus on industry in general and thus boosting demand.

The relation with Macro's is that although they are banned there is definitely a cycle of banning and builtup to be observed with causes a more than average pressure on mineral supply at this moment. Major mineral traders should have more information about this but i'll be surprised if they want to disclose any information about these activities.



If there is more demand for minerals due to more ppl taking up PI and also more industry related stuff.. then prizes of minerals should have risen...

More demand = easier selling of minerals = raise in prizes as they will be selling anyway. (until a boycot on the goods which in eve will most likely not happen in a million years)
OP was talking about a drop in prizes.. so this ain't it.

clixoras
Posted - 2010.09.13 11:10:00 - [11]
 

Originally by: Shocker Steg

More demand = easier selling of minerals = raise in prizes as they will be selling anyway. (until a boycot on the goods which in eve will most likely not happen in a million years)
OP was talking about a drop in prizes.. so this ain't it.


I was replying to Akita's post about mineral prices not dropping as hard as expected. Supply is still > than demand, so ofcourse prices are dropping, but due to the new players it's not as bad.

Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
Posted - 2010.09.13 12:10:00 - [12]
 


PLEX are physiologically more closely tied to real money than most Eve market items. This probably results in stronger statue quo bias to
Loss aversion, which likely results in a reluctance to discount a PLEX to get a quicker sale.



Lord Beckford
Posted - 2010.09.13 16:01:00 - [13]
 

plex are now an item which means they can be moved, before this jita was the main place for plexs simply because it was the main hub. now however because you can move a plex doesnt matter where its sold it can be moved in hi sec anyways. gangkers could try but you dont need to move it in a shuttle you could easily move it in a BS.


i wouldnt bet on there being a correlation between mineral prices and plex

Lord Crow80
Posted - 2010.09.14 12:25:00 - [14]
 

Well although im a relatively new player, with just 6 months at my back, i think 'the carry away plex' thing is a significantg factor of plex price going up.Prior to plex transport, the plex buyes where either those who would use them as extra game time or those who d resell them at the same major trading hub, thus meaning the price would remain kind a low to face competition.After the transport came in, u have a new large target group who d buy plexes i.e. from dodixie and move them out all over universe to systems they believe they can get better prices.This fact leads to a big decrease of number of plexes staying in the major trade hubs and ofc it increases their price there, the very same way it decreases their previous overpriced price at other distant systems.
In addition to that, we also take into consideration the fact that a reasonable ammount of plexes transported get destroyed in gangs etc, thus meaning that although ccp had her part (taking the RM ammount for the gtc) the plexes get out of the game, decreasing in a percentage the total ammount of plex avalaible and logically helping the price to remain high.


btw, that was my first post :P

Induc
Amarr
Posted - 2010.09.15 16:12:00 - [15]
 

Originally by: SencneS
Crappy Economy + School was out = Increase Plex price.

Then how come the prices did the exact opposite? Took a dive at the start of June and went straight up at the beginning of August?

Abdiel Kavash
Caldari
Paladin Order
Fidelas Constans
Posted - 2010.09.16 06:06:00 - [16]
 

Originally by: Lord Crow80
In addition to that, we also take into consideration the fact that a reasonable ammount of plexes transported get destroyed in gangs etc, thus meaning that although ccp had her part (taking the RM ammount for the gtc) the plexes get out of the game, decreasing in a percentage the total ammount of plex avalaible and logically helping the price to remain high.


I would love some data on the number of PLEX lost. I imagine it is negligible. Except for the infamous 74, I only know of one other killmail with two destroyed PLEXes.


 

This thread is older than 90 days and has been locked due to inactivity.


 


The new forums are live

Please adjust your bookmarks to https://forums.eveonline.com

These forums are archived and read-only