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blankseplocked Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE
 
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Caleb Ayrania
Gallente
TarNec
Posted - 2010.09.04 12:39:00 - [91]
 

A pleasure reading your rants VV.. Awesome stuff..

Please keep it coming. Wink

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.04 12:40:00 - [92]
 

2) Sound risk management

This looks so obvious and discounted, yet the majority fail right here.

What IS risk management for an EvE player?
It's the art of knowing how much you are ready to risk knowing the potential reward.

Regarding whether you are investing or trading, by using technical analysis or EvE "trading wisdom" off i.e. patch notes, you should REALLY know and want to know what you are doing.

Example: item XXXX used to trade for 20k and now (due to whatever reason) it's going for 50k.
Healthy investment or trading suggest to not bother with anything rewarding you less than twice of the involved risk.
Notice how "involved risk" does not mean "what I believe risk is at". You could gauge risk being 0.01% because you are SO SURE, SO DAMN SURE the price will never suddenly tank, you are SO SURE the bond investee is SO LEGIT.

But now stop dreaming and start graphing or Excel. Your charting / prediction / insider skills tell you that the item is going to 80k before reaching the top (aka head and shoulders, and I just covered one of many highly price affecting patterns to look after).

WOW let's dive in and invest 100B into it!
Wait a moment. 100B is a lot for a market, therefore you'll stay invested for a medium term. You WILL be subject to the forces of speculations.
Despite the apparent godlike looks, you are effectively buying stuff at 50k that used to be worth 20k. Your risk is 30k per unit. What's your reward? You *hope* it'll get to 80k so your reward is 80k - 50k = 30k.
Reward is the same of the risk, therefore you are affording a *real* risk of losing 30k per unit with a *maybe, potential, hyped* reward of 30k. 1:1 is damn poor.
Scale down the investment so you can greatly reduce the times at stake and setup a "stop loss" right above your break even.

Stop loss IN MY EVE? Yeah. This is perhaps one of the hardest concepts to grasp and accept in the whole trading, investing industry, be it RL or EvE.

"Cut your losses, let profits run" is the one rule that will make you survive the trial of time.

The very day you see price unexpectedly pull back to your stock purchase price + taxes + fees THOU SHALL CLOSE YOUR POSITION NOW. No buts, no ifs, no beliefs, no hopes. Cut the possible loss now, markets are ripe with new opportunities right now and forever so you can try again right in 10 minutes. But you need your engine, your money to do it. If you stupidly hold the stock which is declining, you will lose your engine, the premise to prosper.

I repeat, I know this is an alien concept for a game and even for most RL investors but cutting IMMEDIATELY the losses is of paramount importance, before you die in your own dug hole.


Furthermore, let's assume a more "macro" point of view.
Whenever money leaves your wallet, it's at risk. And you see the recent and past MD scams, you see the recent and past items speculations, the endless heads and shoulders made by people better prepared than you and that WILL part your money off you. There is ALWAYS someone more prepared than you.

So what to do in an harsh game simulating the very same harsh RL patterns?

Simple: don't put all of the eggs in the same basket. Believe it or not, it's vastly more unlikely to lose money you allocated in a portfolio consisting of less known investees than by stacking all the odds against you by giving all your earned cash to a "MD elite".

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.04 12:45:00 - [93]
 

Example:

1 MD Elite and 3 decent lesser investees are advertising their investments.

What the bad investor will do is to give 50% of his hard earned money to the MD Elite with no blink of an eye, while entertraining in long flames and trolls against the 3 "lessers".

What a good investor will do is to calculate i.e. 4% of his money and give 4% to the MD Elite and 3% to each of the lesser investees.
Eventually one of them could scam. You lost 3% but you are earning interests on the remaining 4% + 3% + 3%.

The immediate reward is lower indeed, but hey, the losses won't hurt so bad. You WILL incur in losses, whatever precautions you do.

Finally, don't trust investees that refuse to get an audit. EVEN GODS SCAM IN EVE, be brave and demand the only, even if tiny, little filter against obvious scam.
Of course this is an apparent conflict of interest off mine, since I am an auditor.
Apparent, because in reality if there is something I am not interested doing any more is exactly this thankless routine without glory.

But hey, in any case, why should someone get your billions without giving you anything back, not even a bland information about who he is and if he can actually do what he claims?



1) Trading and investing system

These are not as important in EvE as they are in RL and they really matter mostly on high money amounts medium / long term operations than anything.
You are not going to lose money by flipping and 0.01 ISKing, it's really hard to (you DON'T lemming and fail, do you???).

But still for those willing to entertrain in diverse investments, you could use "slow sell", "cross region arbitrage" or perform technical analysis (and wait for price action) for higher rewards but then time becomes of essence, expecially if you invested in speculation items.

In this case I strongly suggest the "1:2" or higher risk vs reward approach and always invest what you can afford to lose.



I know this series of articles are "thick" and possibly confusing but they form a complete trading / investing system you'd have to pay about from $597 to $1900 in RL to be teached (ie by joining a Dirk du Toit course) and you are getting it completely for free here.


Mini Tee
Posted - 2010.09.04 15:15:00 - [94]
 

Great article, imo the psychological aspect in EvE is much easier to deal with because price moves so slow, no leverage, long only etc Surprised

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.04 16:07:00 - [95]
 

Originally by: Mini Tee
Great article, imo the psychological aspect in EvE is much easier to deal with because price moves so slow, no leverage, long only etc Surprised


High and even medium leverage is for those who will soon lose all they have.
Right today I was reading an eye opening book called "Bird watching in Lion Country" by Dirk du Toit. He does the math to show how at certain leverage levels, you end up paying so much in spread that you just cannot earn money. You can get to 35% fees over a trade and this is some performance even the top traders in the world would struggle to keep up with.
There's a reason why a recent USA rules review is banning high leveraging.

In EvE we don't really need leveraging, money is not something hard to make enough to trade without leverage.


I beg to differ about the slowness of the market. It's as slow or as fast as you look at it. Seen on a yearly chart, investing 100M in a certain type of items could see an increase of 3-400%, that is about 1% a day.

Seen on a daily chart, a quick manipulation could cause those 100M to become 50-25 or 200-400.

49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
Posted - 2010.09.05 00:43:00 - [96]
 

Edited by: 49473 on 05/09/2010 00:43:40
I hope you do not think I am intruding on your thread, however I would appreciate your view of my current thread.
Thread

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.05 01:15:00 - [97]
 

Originally by: 49473
Edited by: 49473 on 05/09/2010 00:43:40
I hope you do not think I am intruding on your thread, however I would appreciate your view of my current thread.
Thread


I replied there.

Imho you should split the document in at least two parts: a larger one to keep as static reference describing what all those indicators do and one actually talking about the specific item analysis.

Pookoko
Posted - 2010.09.06 09:33:00 - [98]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Despite the apparent godlike looks, you are effectively buying stuff at 50k that used to be worth 20k. Your risk is 30k per unit. What's your reward? You *hope* it'll get to 80k so your reward is 80k - 50k = 30k. Reward is the same of the risk, therefore you are affording a *real* risk of losing 30k per unit with a *maybe, potential, hyped* reward of 30k.


quoted for truth. Sometimes one can get too focused on positioning his buy order at the top. I usually set my buy orders at 'safe' price rather than trying to stay on top at all times, and just let other people's buy orders get filled up first if need be. I think it's a psychological thing. As long as people see profit between highest buy order and lowest sell order they are tempted to jump in and place their buy orders at 0.01 isk higher than current top buy order, but as you point out, if that buy order price is higher than what the 'temporarily spiked up' price could settle back to, then it's a risk.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.06 10:25:00 - [99]
 

Originally by: Pookoko
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Despite the apparent godlike looks, you are effectively buying stuff at 50k that used to be worth 20k. Your risk is 30k per unit. What's your reward? You *hope* it'll get to 80k so your reward is 80k - 50k = 30k. Reward is the same of the risk, therefore you are affording a *real* risk of losing 30k per unit with a *maybe, potential, hyped* reward of 30k.


quoted for truth. Sometimes one can get too focused on positioning his buy order at the top. I usually set my buy orders at 'safe' price rather than trying to stay on top at all times, and just let other people's buy orders get filled up first if need be. I think it's a psychological thing. As long as people see profit between highest buy order and lowest sell order they are tempted to jump in and place their buy orders at 0.01 isk higher than current top buy order, but as you point out, if that buy order price is higher than what the 'temporarily spiked up' price could settle back to, then it's a risk.


You bring up a very good topic I have not covered (yet) about money and risk management.

Namely, I personally favor:

- Price action study at confluences of multiple important signs, namely PPZs, BRNs and Fibonacci.
- Grid trading, with or without Andrew's Pitchfork.
- Anti-piramidation of positions so you can take a sure partial profit before moving on with the next price target.
- Opportunistic shorting (yes, in EvE) at projected dips.

I might expand on these topics if I see some interest about them.

Asptar Monastair
Minmatar
Adventurers
Matari Visionary Coalition
Posted - 2010.09.06 16:37:00 - [100]
 

Trading, the only occupation not trainable in EVE.

Do one on minerals!
Mexallon!
I had a look and based on what i've learnt from this thread they all look like massive W's...

Great thread btw, it just goes to show that Eve is much more than just a MMORPG, and as such you should treat it that way.

Pookoko
Posted - 2010.09.07 03:31:00 - [101]
 

To be honest, I can't even pretend that I understand all that technical terms/concepts you bring up. ;) But reading this makes me realise that a) there is an established technical model for types of trading I've already been doing, learning of which could help me make more 'rational' decision rather than drawing upon gut feeling gained from experience, b) there are other tools/ways for me to analyse the market in a way I haven't done before.

I applaud you for your effort and really appreciate this thread, and am also watching the JTRI thread closely. Kudos for the good work & will look forward to any further points you may bring up. :D


Roger Kiyosaki
Native Freshfood
Posted - 2010.09.07 10:33:00 - [102]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
2) Sound risk management


Slightly disappointed that you didn't even touch on the Kelly Criterion right here. In my books, that is the single most important topic in risk management.

49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
Posted - 2010.09.07 10:42:00 - [103]
 

Originally by: Roger Kiyosaki
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
2) Sound risk management


Slightly disappointed that you didn't even touch on the Kelly Criterion right here. In my books, that is the single most important topic in risk management.


There has to be some data collection before any kind of use of the Kelly Criterion.
Maybe we could engage in a data collection joint venture whereby we get the b, p values.


Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.07 14:30:00 - [104]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 07/09/2010 14:34:45
Originally by: Roger Kiyosaki
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
2) Sound risk management


Slightly disappointed that you didn't even touch on the Kelly Criterion right here. In my books, that is the single most important topic in risk management.


These series of articles have some objectives. They are meant to make the general EvE populace aware of certain possibilities, to introduce them to something they can see with their eyes and understand at a glance. I did link several books with vastly more in-depth coverage in case some forum readers prefer to go the extra mile and learn beyond these ropes.

This thread is a seed, it's not meant to be a boring full treaty about all finance. There are plenty of well better books, sites and tutorials than I will never be able to cram in a thread made for gamers.

I am still in the beginning of the mounds of stuff I have intention to post, but I will try and keep this as introductory material to catch people's interest, not as PhD grade tome surrogate.

It'd be a miracle already if people applied those basic "invest 4% of your capital here, 3% there" pragmatic advices, since so far they slam 100% of their savings in the worst failure investments possible.

Once the commoneer in this forum knows what a fixed ratio anti-martingale system is, I might begin to dig in the rest of the stuff. Read: very unlikely.

Of course nothing forbids you adding the in depth stuff in these other analysis threads.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.07 18:50:00 - [105]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 07/09/2010 18:52:57
An example of "buy and hold" trade.

In the previous installments we have seen several elements that may aid us into picking more appropriate trades than just going by guts.

Now I'll try to do a "live trade" like those clips posted on Youtube. In those clips, a guy explains a setup as it unfolds.
In our case, doing it in real time is impractical since EvE times are easily lasting week spans, not seconds but I'll keep the "as it unfolds" feature.


Without further ado, here's the trade of a random commodity.

Fundamental analysis: we are examining a scenario placed before the weeks leading to Christmas. This commodity used to have a yearly cycle where price rises at this time due to increased demand.
It's therefore possible to guess this year we'll assist to another price rise.

Technical analysis: looking at the graph we notice something odd: the commodity is dropping in price. A dip before the rise? A change of yearly behavior? Take note of this downtrend for later, because we'll see how everything in price has a meaning. We "just" need to learn to read the pentagram.

Picture linkage

Now, I have to make a precisation. For simplicity sake I am going to cover a very limited fraction of the possibilities of price action study.

Why? Because the possibilities are HUGE and the finest trades require years of experience.

For those with very strong guts that want to dive in this immense universe, I can only suggest this thread on the FF forum.
It is an huge 5000 pages (five thousands) and this is just the introductory, public part of the whole set of literature available by the same Author.


Now, back to the trade. By using knowledge posted in the previous pages it's possible to see that the trend is not flat but fluctuates downwards.
To have a signal to buy that is not blind wishing, we have to wait for a break out towards the higher prices.

Remember, some of the best trades in your life will be those you chose not to take.
Also - repeating a previous statement in this thread - that in order to trade you have to be ready for the market, but also the market has to be ready for you.

Finally, take the active part of the deal. Does the market DESERVE me and my money? The answer at this point is NO.

Image changed to URL. Zymurgist

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.07 19:37:00 - [106]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 07/09/2010 19:39:07
We are lucky. Few days have passed and price decides to turn upwards (the 5 SMA red line approximates the dots well enough on this large time frame).


Picture linkage



What are signs of *possible* (not confirmed yet) near activity?

- RN 400 tested 3 times. RN = Round Number, a lesser variation of BRN (Big Round Number) due to just two digits ending with zero.
By the way, the same terms I am using here are those used in that 5000 pages thread I linked above. Total identity between RL and EvE price analysis.

- RN 400 was also a PPZ or pivot zone. The price dots swinged and tested the PPZ thrice (the shadows or wicks of the yellow dots represent their daily range and they do reach the RN).

- This thrice test along with the fact the price was touching at below 400 since the beginning suggests the PPZ is weakened.
While pivot lines / zones strengthen when tested every now and then, they weaken a lot when tested multiple (typically 3-5) times in short sequence.

This is not some vodoo, it's just the mere fact that buy / sell orders sitting at such level are gradually triggered and taken all out after few tests.

- At least one yellow dot/bar is above the RN @400. While this looks random, it's not.
Markets look always random but they are expression of a collective, immensely precise plan.

Now some immensely expert traders could enter the market at the third before last dot. This in RL trading is a RL short consolidation, a smallest "knot" of prices suggesting a massive buying power has built up or a beyond powerful market maker decided to buy wholesale.
In RL they'd put a stop loss at about the median of the previous dots range (360-380). This approach guarantees a small gain even in case price fails to shoot up.
These consolidations are NOT always available so this route might not be possible but in the finest scenarios ad by well proficient traders. Don't try this at the first trades.

Other less expert but much aggressive traders could wait for the price to reach and pass the reference "high height" I marked as point 2) and enter there. This is dangerous because entering long (= buy) right below a pivot line can easily lead to a price hard bounce that WILL hurt the wallet.
I advise not to do this.

Other traders could take that first bar above 400 as buy signal. This is still an aggressive approach though, because prices many times overshoot, take the orders right above pivot line out (the infamous "limit order / stop loss hunting") due to their insatiable greed and then recede below the pivot line and sometimes even drop down like a rock. Just to screw you hard, with pleasure.

So far I only covered aggressive or advanced entry signals that proceed without the so called "confirmation", that is a further sign that price indeed is going where we want.
I suggest inexperienced readers to wait for the next signals with confirmation instead. They are in the next post.

Image changed to URL. Zymurgist

Estel Arador
Posted - 2010.09.07 20:16:00 - [107]
 

I'd be a lot more impressed if instead of predicting last year's trend, you'd do this analysis on whatever is going on now.

Caleb Ayrania
Gallente
TarNec
Posted - 2010.09.07 20:19:00 - [108]
 

Originally by: Estel Arador
I'd be a lot more impressed if instead of predicting last year's trend, you'd do this analysis on whatever is going on now.


Interesting challenge.. elaborate it and present? I would like to get VVs take on a specific current trend..


49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
Posted - 2010.09.07 20:20:00 - [109]
 

Originally by: Estel Arador
I'd be a lot more impressed if instead of predicting last year's trend, you'd do this analysis on whatever is going on now.


Technical analysis used here can be quite easily applied to today, with a varying degree of success compared to the past given increased market volatility.

I think Vaerah is not actually attempting to provide actual predictions but explain the concepts, I may be wrong however.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.07 20:23:00 - [110]
 

Originally by: Estel Arador
I'd be a lot more impressed if instead of predicting last year's trend, you'd do this analysis on whatever is going on now.


Post 105 explained why.

Also, these posts are organized in progressive lessons, I could not cover all the trade cases with a random price, it's extremely rare (as per post 106) to see some setups.

Finally, I am not selling anything and as per one of the first replies, if I impressed anyone with this basic school 101 trading stuff, then I'd have failed.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.07 21:12:00 - [111]
 

(Continued from post 106)

A couple of more days and we see some new interesting price action.


Picture linkage

I kept "1) Aggressive entry" from the previous post, in order to show the various price levels.

In this graph, prices shoots up and like often happens (not always!) it performs what's called a retracement. That is it overshoots above the 400 line that formerly acted as resistance, comes up and drops back down to the same line - this time as support.

This is the sign we were waiting for. While nothing forbids price to act however it wants and to still drop down or do whatever it wants, it's quite usual that retracements hold and may be used as confirmed buy entry point.

Operationally speaking, we wait for price to drill thru 400 upwards, shoot up (the dots above 450) and then come back down over 400 at "2) Prudent entry".
This happened all in the same day, the wicks or shadows under the dots show the daily range was that big. Going so high, they also show another important indication but I won't cover it in this introductory tutorial.

For those who really want to be so sure that are ready to sacrifice a bit more than the above entry points, they may enter at "3) Safest entry".
3) consists of price going to 2) and then rising up again, up to about 430 (there's a dot there) which in an ideal situation would lay on a Fibonacci retracement (wondered why they were called retracements?).


Few days later, we see that price indeed went where it was expected to go:

Picture linkage



Now, some of the most important considerations of this whole thread.

- Studying markets is not an exact science, it is an art that takes years to fully develop.

- Price action, pivots etc. are NOT meant to predict the exact price or direction, expecially in a medium or long term.
These indicators are used to spot a range of possible alternate paths that form at topic points called "confluences", often the meeting point of BRNs, pivot lines, Fibonaccis, break outs...
I.e. when I think price will draw a so called "triangle" and then shoot up, I must also draw and consider the alternate route of price shooting down. This makes possible to prepare an execution plan consisting of the appropriate setup of orders (and stops, in RL trading) before price gets there.


A RL example would be this:

Linkage (might require log in).

Here a trader literally draws 3 possible outcomes and therefore 3 plans about how to deal with price in each of them.

These phrases above also explain why predicting price without confluences of some sort is quite unreliable and I refuse doing it.

----------


Now we are in the trade. But where to bail out? If someone has still interest, I'll post the next installment in the next days.

Image changed to URL. Zymurgist

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.10 00:39:00 - [112]
 

A little update to

post 40


Picture linkage


While it's early to surely declare the trend over and on the verge of crashing, it really looks like so.


- Volume is typical of an head and shoulders top

- 5 periods SMA is crossing 20 periods SMA downwards. Now, these crossings are lagged because SMAs are based on the simple average of previous N cycles so they are not very good at predicting trades entry points. But they are nice as confirmation that something happened already. They are also used as dynamic support and resistance lines, maybe one day I'll talk about that.

- First bar downwards (last shown) already shows traders getting nervous. Volume increases as they realize it might be over and they go in panic sell mode.

We start making plans in case it does.

*IF* the price goes down, what does it tell us? It tells us tips about where it wants to go.
The next weeks will be interesting, the main (down)trend could mix and perform some interesting interference oscillations as a counter trend of increased demand (for Christmas) will form. Once again, exactly like in RL markets, where trends face sub-trends and sub-sub-trends in a fractal way.

The fun part is that with weeks of anticipation on that, we will be able to see the market sentiment.
The shoulders can be asymmetric in case the whole huge pattern is stacking on an ascending trend.

Image changed to URL. Zymurgist

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.10 00:57:00 - [113]
 

The following picture is another Leonardo quality (!!) MS Paint example of the most frequent scenarios in an head and shoulders.


Picture linkage


The first 1) is the "basic" pattern found in neutral markets. Basing on knowing the first half of it, it's possible to predict the second half and also how far price will drop.
The green arrows show the minimum extents, it's not rare to see the second arrow (neck to base) being 1.5:1, 2:1 and even 3:1 with respect to the top of head to neckline.

The second 2) is how the pattern looks like, when it's superimposed over a long term up trend. It's "stretched" in all of its features.
This behavior is extensively used in RL trading for the technique called BWILC, a particular form of grid trading.

The third 3) is the same but in case it's superimposed over a long term downtrend.


In case some external events happen, i.e. patch, Christmas demand increase etc., a "channel" or even a secondary trend will form and price will take a new slope, either up or down.

The fourth 4) example shows an head and shoulders that managed to complete before the new trend kicked in. It will be marginally slanted and deformed at its end as it adapts to the new slope. The example only shows the case of a new uptrend, downtrends may also affect the pattern in a complimentary way.

The fifth 5) and last example shows an head and shoulders that gets interrupted by a new powerful event like a patch / war / news / holiday. It will be quite deformed as it has to adapt to the new trend in a large portion but the basic features (i.e. right shoulder) will still be visible.



Now, the most probable scenarios for Robotics could be 1, 2, 4 or 5.
Tips about what will be the price choice will come by looking at how the right shoulder(s) will form. If they will form at the same height as the corresponding left shoulder(s) price could return to pre-pattern levels, even if given the changed game mechanics this is unlikely.
It's more probable that the increased fair value after Tyrannis plus the soon Christmas vacations will show a 4) or 5) scenario.

But this is too far future, price has not talked yet, so see you in another post in the future.

Image changed to URL. Zymurgist

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.10 08:52:00 - [114]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 10/09/2010 08:55:01
Interesting confluence on Technetium.

Someone is evidently manipulating it, it's approaching a long term wedge formation (bearish pattern), it's also shaped in a quasi-head and shoulders formation, it's hovering around RNs. Some orders are blatantly artificial, others are inane 0.01 ISKing. I don't see a truly demand and offer market like in the previous uptrend but more turning into a speculation bubble, traders vs other traders in a circle jerk and race at who will remain with the short stick burning on his hand.

Someone recently dumped a lot of it few days ago, someone else relisted to higher about 3 days ago to keep up the price but demand has dropped to less than half. This could lead to instability and an inversion. If this happens when the wedge becomes very thin, a brisk crash could start.

Small speculators beware.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.10 16:42:00 - [115]
 

I'd like to take a little poll now.

1) What did you like about this thread?

2) What did you not like about this thread?

3) Do you think you have read enough or would you want to get more?

4) What are topics you'd be interested in, if you could choose?

5) Do you prefer more analysis, more additional articles on i.e. money management etc., more practical trade entries?

6) Did you try and apply these ideas in your markets evaluation? Did you see them working? If not, could you point out an example?

Delagos Almondis
Posted - 2010.09.10 17:28:00 - [116]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
I'd like to take a little poll now.

1) What did you like about this thread?

2) What did you not like about this thread?

3) Do you think you have read enough or would you want to get more?

4) What are topics you'd be interested in, if you could choose?

5) Do you prefer more analysis, more additional articles on i.e. money management etc., more practical trade entries?

6) Did you try and apply these ideas in your markets evaluation? Did you see them working? If not, could you point out an example?


1) About everything tbh. I am really fascinated by the whole thing, and I currently find myself browsing market statistics in Jita just for the hell of it Very Happy
2) The rants by other ppl about how they havent learned anything. Rolling Eyes
3) MOAR plz.
4) I know this is kind of hard to do, but: some more in-depth about how to detect and confirm patterns while they are building.
5) More Analysis und practical trade please. Money management is nice, but I am more interested in the theories and how to apply them (Could be because I currently have no money to loose to speak of)
6) I am currently trying to find something to try trading, but have not yet found something. But once the next batch of my production comes out, I will check patterns on them first and see if I can maybe make an additional bit of profit with it.

Keep them coming!

49473
Jita Trade and Research Institute
Posted - 2010.09.10 17:28:00 - [117]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
I'd like to take a little poll now.

1) What did you like about this thread?

2) What did you not like about this thread?

3) Do you think you have read enough or would you want to get more?

4) What are topics you'd be interested in, if you could choose?

5) Do you prefer more analysis, more additional articles on i.e. money management etc., more practical trade entries?

6) Did you try and apply these ideas in your markets evaluation? Did you see them working? If not, could you point out an example?



That application of technical analysis to Eve is quite refreshing.

I think you would gain a lot from improving the style of the post; especially the images. However, this is a superficial criticism.

I would like the topic of behavioural finance to be given more attention.

More analysis, however not strictly technical.

While I didn't apply anything because of this thread I do apply ideas in this thread. There are past examples where the technical analysis is destroyed over night by some mechanic change, however with a comprehensive analysis I don't see this as a problem and wouldn't pose it as a challenge to you.

Bath Sheeba
Gallente
Another Success Story
Posted - 2010.09.10 20:49:00 - [118]
 

Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
I'd like to take a little poll now.

1) What did you like about this thread?

2) What did you not like about this thread?

3) Do you think you have read enough or would you want to get more?

4) What are topics you'd be interested in, if you could choose?

5) Do you prefer more analysis, more additional articles on i.e. money management etc., more practical trade entries?

6) Did you try and apply these ideas in your markets evaluation? Did you see them working? If not, could you point out an example?



1)I enjoyed the analysis and the explanations of the basic trending to look for.
2)I would have enjoyed it a bit more if it was not spread over several pages, but hey, beggars can't be choosers, right?
3) ...
4 & 5) more general analysis of market forces would be cool.
6) Not yet, but I may use these kinds of methods more in the future.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.11 14:46:00 - [119]
 

Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 11/09/2010 14:47:30
Quote:

4) I know this is kind of hard to do, but: some more in-depth about how to detect and confirm patterns while they are building



Quote:

More analysis, however not strictly technical



Quote:

4 & 5) more general analysis of market forces would be cool.




I'll try doing this. As I posted some time ago, there are RL threads 5000 pages long *introducing* to price action study and they are just a tiny drop in a sea of experience to be made.


Also, 49473 (and others) will probably have noticed I am not too big on exact numbers nor detailed indicators.
During my time after being burned hard with futures enough, I slowly switched to less short term. I went to less "technical" and more "analysis". The latter as in "use brain and not squiggly lines to decide". "Feel the dance that is the market. She prefers a tango, not a computer".


I will post here a sort of little verses written by an institutional trader, whose nickname is "fti". He tried to teach new traders about the *mindset* to have.
I learned - at my expense - that this is not a "spot lesson", but a series of ongoing small steps to inner improvement.

This is also why

Quote:

2)I would have enjoyed it a bit more if it was not spread over several pages, but hey, beggars can't be choosers, right?



cannot be really achieved, not by me at least.
Knowing men is the first step to know the market. This cannot be achieved with pure deterministic math.


Anyway read this, which is my first (but his umpteenth) trading in pill lesson:



What are the principle/criteria to set up an entry and exit a position?
To be able to do that, understand this.

"Can you understand life and its mysteries, You cannot as long as you try to grasp it,
just as you cannot walk off with a river in a bucket.
If you try to capture a river in a bucket, it is clear that you do not understand it
and you will always be disappointed for in the bucket is not the river.
To have the river, you must let go and let it run."

"Music is a delight because of its rhythm and flow.
Yet the moment you arrest the flow
and prolong a note or chord beyond its time the rhythm is destroyed."

Not so unlike rivers and music, the markets flows.
It is not the market that you have to contend with, it is 'YOU'.


Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
Posted - 2010.09.15 18:11:00 - [120]
 

An update from the first "hot" product that seems to have taken a definite direction: Robotics

"What could we learn from this picture? Because the whole reason of this experiment is to find concrete applications of finance mechanics in EvE, isn't it?"

First article on it

Second article on it

(The second article spans multiple posts)


What do we have today?


Picture linkage


If I was a "buy and hold" guy or a medium term speculator and read this thread so I would have sold all on 1st September, I'd have saved 13% of the investment vs if I panic sold today.

Notice that in this case even the two simple moving averages would have helped a lot if the guy would have sold at their cross downwards.
Moving averages are not always a functioning signal though and it lags like all indicators do. In case of a deep spike those investors who follow moving averages would risk a tangible loss.

Image changed to URL. Zymurgist


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