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Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.21 07:13:00 - [31]
 

Originally by: Murrue Raimius
In any case,
103m x 203.50 isk = 20.96B isk. Hardly over 200B isk


err no, take a look at the market price of silicate glass again. It makes no real difference now if it took 2B or 21B or w/e to estbalish those near-infinite stockpiles.

Patri Andari
Caldari
Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
Posted - 2010.07.21 07:26:00 - [32]
 

Edited by: Patri Andari on 21/07/2010 07:34:47
ho ho

Patri Andari
Caldari
Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
Posted - 2010.07.21 07:34:00 - [33]
 

Originally by: Nefrums
As I see it there is only one thing that CCP can do to fix this..
Increase the output of PI by an order of magnitude, and the material bill of all things that use PI stuff by the same amount..



CCP will most likely and should do what I think they will:

NOTHING


If the market is left to sort this out here is what I think will happen:

(A) Mid stream producers (P0-P4) will produce only enough to get profit worth their time and inevitably sell their products to the market.

(B) Internal Full Run Producers (those who rely on internal production for everything from P0-P4 (and perhaps the assets produced thereby) will produce items they assume are less costly ( the PI I produce are free) and make and end run to produce structures and such for "reduced" price.

(C) Market End run producers (those who produce end run item from lower tier products purchased on the market) will consume from buy orders depleting stockpiles. They will later make posts that ask how people are making a profit building towers for less than the costs to build them.

(D) The rest will be bought from stock pilers to produce T2 and faction items until stocks are depleted.






or not







Just my thoughts








Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.21 07:43:00 - [34]
 

The producers making it themselves aren't getting it "for free" any more than roid/ice/rat miners get theirs for free. If stockpilers are selling trillions worth of this stuff at cheap enough price (x10 profit or more, and it's still extremely cheap) there will be no reason for anyone to ever use PI based production. At least in the foreseeable future. You could still do it just for lulz, but that would be an inefficient allocation of your player/corp resources. That is all.

Patri Andari
Caldari
Thukker Tribe Antiquities Importer
Posted - 2010.07.21 07:48:00 - [35]
 

Originally by: Gwen Reinholds
The producers making it themselves aren't getting it "for free" any more than roid/ice/rat miners get theirs for free. If stockpilers are selling trillions worth of this stuff at cheap enough price (x10 profit or more, and it's still extremely cheap) there will be no reason for anyone to ever use PI based production. At least in the foreseeable future. You could still do it just for lulz, but that would be an inefficient allocation of your player/corp resources. That is all.



I am sure you did not read (or did not understand) my post. Read it again!





Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.21 08:01:00 - [36]
 

Edited by: Gwen Reinholds on 21/07/2010 08:01:35
Originally by: Patri Andari


(B) Internal Full Run Producers (those who rely on internal production for everything from P0-P4 (and perhaps the assets produced thereby) will produce items they assume are less costly ( the PI I produce are free) and make and end run to produce structures and such for "reduced" price.




This was the part I commented on. The PI I produce isn't free. No serious manufacturer thinks like this, get a clue

Originally by: Patri Andari

or not



Exactly



Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.21 08:13:00 - [37]
 

Edited by: Gwen Reinholds on 21/07/2010 08:16:34
Also the point was that stockpiles will NOT deplete in the foreseeable future. Meaning several years in some cases. Just look at the size of the stockpiles (it's all in there in the trading volume in June). Look how much is consumed by BOM of the end products using PI materials and the daily trading volume on those. Or maybe rather say I don't understand, that's easier than dealing with the numbers

JitaPriceChecker2
Posted - 2010.07.21 09:47:00 - [38]
 

There are still stuff that drops from missions like 1000 planetary vehicles(!) and from npc haulers.

It deosnt help.

Venkul Mul
Gallente
Posted - 2010.07.21 10:24:00 - [39]
 

Originally by: Gwen Reinholds
Originally by: Weaselior
convincing everyone to buy npc goods en masse has made my job as CFO so much easier because like everyone is loaded now


well, great job there.

I don't suppose you can give me an answer though? why did CCP do it this way, rather than, say, use the solution I just thought about in 30 minutes? (even better would be allowing both old and new materials to be used in manufacturing for another 60 days until PI based economy starts up would also be an option, could keep the NPC buy orders for old items as well).

or maybe if they wanted it to work the way they did it, they should have at least calibrated the unit amounts in the schematics in such manner that NPC base prices match the market value of the commodities at the time PI was launched?

But no, it makes perfect sense for NPC corps to sell stuff infinitely to players at 1/50 of cost. Sloppy, bordering on incompetent :/




Because your solution don't work.

You can't have 2 different sets of material requirement to construct the same item without redoing half of the game (the program currently has only 1 set of materials linked to a finished item);

Having the POS fuel requirements changing with the introduction of PI would have stopped all the POS in EVE (as already explained above);

NPC sell prices aren't a fixed value, if you buy all the available stock in a station it is replenished but the price go up, so no "buy price" for the stuff;

change all the BPO using ex-NPC seeded items, so a large percentage of the T2 BPO and some other BPO, way to add unnecessary work to implement the system,

and so on.

For the second point:
player production prices are based on the hourly wage a capsuleer want, not on the planetary peons wage level.

Your worst frigate is worth more than the life savings of some hundred common industrial workers.

And, BTW, 0.0 production levels (if the players there find the interest in producing PI) are about x5 those of high sec.








Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari
Sane Industries Inc.
Posted - 2010.07.21 10:28:00 - [40]
 

Originally by: Gwen Reinholds
Edited by: Gwen Reinholds on 21/07/2010 08:16:34
Also the point was that stockpiles will NOT deplete in the foreseeable future. Meaning several years in some cases. Just look at the size of the stockpiles (it's all in there in the trading volume in June). Look how much is consumed by BOM of the end products using PI materials and the daily trading volume on those. Or maybe rather say I don't understand, that's easier than dealing with the numbers


We know nothing of the real usage of e.g. silicate glass as there has never been full-scale production of pos structures, etc.

Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.21 10:48:00 - [41]
 

Originally by: Venkul Mul


Because your solution don't work.

You can't have 2 different sets of material requirement to construct the same item without redoing half of the game (the program currently has only 1 set of materials linked to a finished item);



why would implementing this capability in the server-side manufacturing code necessitate redoing half of the game?

having to write a hack to handle something like this is a lesser evil than screwing the entire PI production economy over for years because they don't feel like writing hacks.

The other suggestion in the thread, to make PI mfg produce 10x more of these items and change BOMs to require 10x more as well. That'll make it so we can get past the endless stockpiles and make PI viable in a few months.

menacemyth
Minmatar
Onyx Brotherhood
STR8NGE BREW
Posted - 2010.07.21 11:16:00 - [42]
 

Edited by: menacemyth on 21/07/2010 11:28:55
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds

The other suggestion in the thread, to make PI mfg produce 10x more of these items and change BOMs to require 10x more as well. That'll make it so we can get past the endless stockpiles and make PI viable in a few months.


That solution I like best, but I seriously doubt ccp will implement it. would take a couple weeks to make the necessary changes and that means additional bugs and fixes etc. It's because of situations like this that the acronym SNAFU was created.

I know a few guys that bought millions of some of the npc stuff. They are sitting on it, and plan to retire in 6-12 months after earning possibly a 100 billion from it.

Casmy Blue
Gallente
Power and Water
Posted - 2010.07.21 11:44:00 - [43]
 

Edited by: Casmy Blue on 21/07/2010 11:45:36
Originally by: menacemyth
Edited by: menacemyth on 21/07/2010 11:28:55

I know a few guys that bought millions of some of the npc stuff. They are sitting on it, and plan to retire in 6-12 months after earning possibly a 100 billion from it.


Right, and there are dozens if not hundreds of other people that did the same thing. And they're going to sell their stocks at all different points because they all have different opinions of when the market is going to "peak", which is why we're still having PI price discussions on the market forums.

Everyone saying, "Nobody knows what PI is worth." are seriously over-complicating this entire situation. The highest-end PI products, which are being produced en masse (and aren't fueled by NPC goods) are worth around 1.5 million, right now.

If you break this down, then each P3 component is worth, individually, about 83k. If a component could've been produced with NPC goods, then one component is worth less than 83k and two components are worth more than 83k, depending on how far below 83k the component(s) is worth that people are building fully or partially from NPC stockpiles.

Let's go down the next level to P2. P2 components are worth, individually, about 12.5k each. If a P2 component is worth less than 12.5k, it's because it's created by or is an NPC good, which means the other P2 component used to build the P3 component is worth more than 12.5k.

Then you go down to the P1 components. Those are always worth around 3k, though some of them are worth less if they were an NPC sold good, which means the other P1 component used to create a given P2 component is worth more than 3k.

You take your P4 component, figure out what it's worth, and break it all the way down. I did this when PI first came out based on some (mostly accurate) guesses that things like power cores would start around 2.5 million, and the prices are pretty much exactly where my spreadsheet figured they would be because I used that P4 price to estimate how much the P3 > P2 > P1 components would be worth.

If I was able to accurately predict the prices of most P4 components with about 2 hours of effort, then a lot of other people I'm sure arrived at similar conclusions. If you're in the "Gosh I just don't know man PI is just like god who knows where it will end up wow NPC stockpiles oh man price impacts oh wow gee where is it gonna go." then to be frank with you, you're probably not very market savvy at all.

A trained monkey could run these calculations and deduce roughly accurate results.

Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.21 11:58:00 - [44]
 

Originally by: Casmy Blue

Right, and there are dozens if not hundreds of other people that did the same thing. And they're going to sell their stocks at all different points because they all have different opinions of when the market is going to "peak", which is why we're still having PI price discussions on the market forums.

...

A trained monkey could run these calculations and deduce roughly accurate results.


you are still missing the point. It's not about where the price will peak or when exactly they decide to sell their stock. It's the facts that

1) PI materials will trade well below the point where it is worth anyone's play time to actually do the micromanagement to produce them with PI as long as the massive stockpiles exist

2) the stockpiles are so massive compared to daily consumption that it could take years to go through all of them.

leaving PI in a fundamentally broken state

Dr Nefarius
Posted - 2010.07.21 12:15:00 - [45]
 

Originally by: Casmy Blue


Everyone saying, "Nobody knows what PI is worth." are seriously over-complicating this entire situation. The highest-end PI products, which are being produced en masse (and aren't fueled by NPC goods) are worth around 1.5 million, right now.




You know, those P4:s ARE fueled by NPC goods, so.......




Casmy Blue
Gallente
Power and Water
Posted - 2010.07.21 12:22:00 - [46]
 

Edited by: Casmy Blue on 21/07/2010 12:23:33
Originally by: Gwen Reinholds
Originally by: Casmy Blue

Right, and there are dozens if not hundreds of other people that did the same thing. And they're going to sell their stocks at all different points because they all have different opinions of when the market is going to "peak", which is why we're still having PI price discussions on the market forums.

...

A trained monkey could run these calculations and deduce roughly accurate results.


you are still missing the point. It's not about where the price will peak or when exactly they decide to sell their stock. It's the facts that

1) PI materials will trade well below the point where it is worth anyone's play time to actually do the micromanagement to produce them with PI as long as the massive stockpiles exist

2) the stockpiles are so massive compared to daily consumption that it could take years to go through all of them.

leaving PI in a fundamentally broken state



No, I thoroughly reviewed the thread, and I read it over to ensure that I understood the basis of the arguments that were being made. I don't miss a whole lot of points.

I disagree with the seemingly general consensus that several people seem to have reached in this thread that it's not worthwhile to do the micro-management required for PI as a result of the NPC-purchased stockpiles.

The purpose of my free information post - which is something I don't offer too often - was to explain that if there is a P1-P3 item heavily reliant upon goods that were likely purchased from NPC sell orders at ridiculously low rates, then there is a market opportunity to "fill in" the remaining value of the end-result P4 product.

If I'm making power cores, then the one thing I'm probably not going to produce is camera drones, because camera drones are created by two NPC-bought P3 components - rocket fuel and silicate glass. Camera drones are going to be worth a lot less than my 83k estimate for P3 products for a P4 worth 1.5m, so where does that leave me?

Oh, look, there's a significant opportunity to make a lot more than I could make by manufacturing the other two P3 components for creating the specific P4 component, because I bet if you looked at the Jita market right now and power cores were selling for 1.5m (I think they're at 1.3m), you'd find that the two other P3 components used for creating power cores are selling at a lot higher than 83k.

Do you think that those components would be selling for much more than 83k if camera drones also sold for 83k? No, they would probably be selling for as much as camera drones.

In every instance where there is an NPC-purchased component that is essentially "not worth producing", there are other components used in the same production chain that are more valuable as a result. You should be producing those components, and then be thankful that the NPC component is making the components that you're now producing more valuable than they would otherwise be.


Vathros
Caldari
State War Academy
Posted - 2010.07.21 12:29:00 - [47]
 

Edited by: Vathros on 21/07/2010 12:29:07
This is a strangely high level of insight for somebody who doesn't post a lot on the market forums, so are you an Akita T alt or a Shar alt?

That's the only question I've got for you right now.

menacemyth
Minmatar
Onyx Brotherhood
STR8NGE BREW
Posted - 2010.07.21 13:46:00 - [48]
 

I'm not sure, but i think some people missed my point. There are trillions worth of npc stockpiles. Where did the competitive nature of eve go? RIGHT OUT THE WINDOW.

ChrisIsherwood
Posted - 2010.07.21 17:41:00 - [49]
 

Originally by: Breaker77

It will probably be 6 to 12 months before we even begin to see a normal price for PI goods. Why?? Because no one knows what they are worth.


Actually, if you believe CCP, we will never know what they are worth. It will be a long time before the NPC goods go away and if CCPs keep a PI team and they actually do something non-trvial, then before we have price discovery on what this is actually worth, the environment will have changed and new price equilibriums will need to be found.

Originally by: Casmy Blue

A trained monkey could run these calculations and deduce roughly accurate results.


Although with all this don't you have to assume something about m*cr*: If 6000 (Holy Rage #) b*ts are also doing PI 23*7 with 30 minute scans in addition to their other crimes, then don't you get pretty different #s as to what P1 is worth than if you ask how much ISK/hour a human player will want to play FarmVille?

RoidWorm
Caldari
Posted - 2010.07.21 18:51:00 - [50]
 

Originally by: Vathros
Edited by: Vathros on 21/07/2010 12:29:07
This is a strangely high level of insight for somebody who doesn't post a lot on the market forums, so are you an Akita T alt or a Shar alt?

That's the only question I've got for you right now.



Was thinking the same thing as I read it. Very Happy






Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.21 19:51:00 - [51]
 

Originally by: RoidWorm
Originally by: Vathros
Edited by: Vathros on 21/07/2010 12:29:07
This is a strangely high level of insight for somebody who doesn't post a lot on the market forums, so are you an Akita T alt or a Shar alt?

That's the only question I've got for you right now.



Was thinking the same thing as I read it. Very Happy




who are you referring to?


Mr Kidd
Posted - 2010.07.21 23:48:00 - [52]
 

There's nothing CCP could have done differently unless they were inclined to redesign/create aspects of the game. The idea that they would have run these PI products in parallel to existing products would result in what? PI products having no useful purpose unless developers made a use for them.

At best CCP could gauge demand as they can clearly see how much is being consumed and slowly ween the market of NPC orders. Or, as they did, turn off NPC orders and let the market sort it out. The current/future price of these products would end of being the same regardless. The only thing that would change would be speed at which the prices increased.

Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.21 23:48:00 - [53]
 

Originally by: Casmy Blue


No, I thoroughly reviewed the thread, and I read it over to ensure that I understood the basis of the arguments that were being made. I don't miss a whole lot of points.

I disagree with the seemingly general consensus that several people seem to have reached in this thread that it's not worthwhile to do the micro-management required for PI as a result of the NPC-purchased stockpiles.

The purpose of my free information post - which is something I don't offer too often - was to explain that if there is a P1-P3 item heavily reliant upon goods that were likely purchased from NPC sell orders at ridiculously low rates, then there is a market opportunity to "fill in" the remaining value of the end-result P4 product.

If I'm making power cores, then the one thing I'm probably not going to produce is camera drones, because camera drones are created by two NPC-bought P3 components - rocket fuel and silicate glass. Camera drones are going to be worth a lot less than my 83k estimate for P3 products for a P4 worth 1.5m, so where does that leave me?

Oh, look, there's a significant opportunity to make a lot more than I could make by manufacturing the other two P3 components for creating the specific P4 component, because I bet if you looked at the Jita market right now and power cores were selling for 1.5m (I think they're at 1.3m), you'd find that the two other P3 components used for creating power cores are selling at a lot higher than 83k.

Do you think that those components would be selling for much more than 83k if camera drones also sold for 83k? No, they would probably be selling for as much as camera drones.

In every instance where there is an NPC-purchased component that is essentially "not worth producing", there are other components used in the same production chain that are more valuable as a result. You should be producing those components, and then be thankful that the NPC component is making the components that you're now producing more valuable than they would otherwise be.




I think PI material prices will stabilize around the costs of production (player time) and logistics, unless they have no end-products in demand at all. If some P2 or P3 materials are offered at lower prices because they've been stockpiled, it won't mean you get more profits on P4's, simply that the P4's that depend on them will be cheaper than they would've been without the stockpiles.

And stockpiled materials used directly in end-products will just be cheaper than intended, basically like it was before with the NPC orders.

The amount of profit should lean towards balancing out across most items regardless of the exact P4's that are in demand (unless demand for some items starts exceeding supply from accessible planets - I have no idea if that can realistically happen), much like ISK/LP on (useful) LP items or other things that depend on a mindless grind on part of the players, should tend toward a constant at least theoretically. The fact that most of the PI resources are going to come out of 0.0 does complicate matters though.

For this reason - I've realized that it doesn't matter if some of the materials are stockpiled, the ISK valuation of PI activity will be the same as it should've been. Just limited to only the subset of PI mats that are stockpile-independent. which skews the intended balance in P0/P1 material abundance and so on, but hardly as much of a problem as I thought.

tl;dr, the speculators basically won at EVE forever, but other than that, no big deal.


Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.22 01:17:00 - [54]
 

Originally by: Mr Kidd
There's nothing CCP could have done differently unless they were inclined to redesign/create aspects of the game. The idea that they would have run these PI products in parallel to existing products would result in what? PI products having no useful purpose unless developers made a use for them.


the idea was phasing out the old products gradually by first removing the NPC sell orders and then making them unusable after 2 months or so (to give people time to use them to produce stuff during that time), finally reimbursing all remaining materials for their ISK cost (= original NPC sell order price) and deleting them from the game. It's IMO a more sensible solution than what CCP ended up doing, but also required some extra effort to make both types of products compatible with the BOM of all dependent blueprints, something that's never been done before in the game. Maybe that was too much work. Doesn't seem like it, but I'm not developing for CCP. Anyway, too late for that now.

MrFantastic
Posted - 2010.07.22 02:34:00 - [55]
 

Edited by: MrFantastic on 22/07/2010 02:36:17
One thing is for certain, this will be an interesting ride. Ultimately, probably a subject for a thesis of someone at ccp.

An item to note is that the general player base isn't going to be holding onto trade goods for long term gains. Given that, ingredient prices will eventually crash as "speculators" who sunk >75% their total worth into former NPC goods realize they want some of that money back.

People attempting to sell millions or hundreds of thousands of certain goods will find it impossible because of endless sell order wars. Especially if market trading/selling hasn't been their primary (or even secondary) career. Tending sell orders probably isn't something that the dabbling speculator wants to do.

Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.22 10:03:00 - [56]
 

seems like buyers and sellers are playing a game of chicken in the stockpiled goods right now.

The big manufacturers probably have their own huge stockpiles so they need nothing more from the market for a very long time

scalpers aren't touching it because there's no liquidity. Most of the trades are obviously fake.

Buyers and sellers are waiting for each other to crack for a week now. Sellers won't crack so easily because they know there no way to get any more of those materials at a cheaper price. so why settle for less ISK?

but as long as there's no real demand (from manufacturers) prices won't go up. It's hard to guess when will that happen, could be months to a year as well.

Venkul Mul
Gallente
Posted - 2010.07.22 11:53:00 - [57]
 

Originally by: Gwen Reinholds
Originally by: Venkul Mul


Because your solution don't work.

You can't have 2 different sets of material requirement to construct the same item without redoing half of the game (the program currently has only 1 set of materials linked to a finished item);



why would implementing this capability in the server-side manufacturing code necessitate redoing half of the game?

having to write a hack to handle something like this is a lesser evil than screwing the entire PI production economy over for years because they don't feel like writing hacks.



Rolling Eyes

It will require the complete overhaul of the database and all the stuff that is linked to the database, so most of the game.

It is not a "hack", it is changing the foundations of the game.

Tiima Tuscan
Posted - 2010.07.22 12:16:00 - [58]
 

Sorry, I can't hear you over this massive pile of ISK I've made from PI.

That doesn't help, does it.

Gwen Reinholds
Posted - 2010.07.22 13:25:00 - [59]
 

Originally by: Venkul Mul

Rolling Eyes

It will require the complete overhaul of the database and all the stuff that is linked to the database, so most of the game.

It is not a "hack", it is changing the foundations of the game.



this is cyclic logic. You're basically saying it takes changing the entire database/code because it takes changing the entire database/code.

can you please explain to me why would it require a complete overhaul of the database?

I'm a novice at databases and even I could think of a way to do this with almost no impact on databases whatsoever

- add a new column to item database. set it to -1 on all items. set it to id of "new PI item" for "old PI item".
- change manufacturing consumption code to check the new column for each material it consumes. If it's -1, consume the material normally. if not, try to consume it and if that fails, try to consume the material id found in that column.

this isn't rocket science

Kryss Stevenson
Caldari
Red Stallion Mercantile and Manufacturing
Posted - 2010.07.22 14:07:00 - [60]
 

Since everyone is looking at the P1 to P3 stockpiles and trying to figure out how much everything should be worth. Would it be helpful to look at the final cost of the POS structures, which is what the P4 items are used in?

Since there is a stockpile of those items also and I currently donít know how many of them get sold per day. When that stockpile goes away the manufactures will have to start using all the PI materials to make them now. When that happens the P3 stockpiles will dwindle faster than they are now.


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